Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan for FY2026H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 216%-231% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 41%-48% [1] - Excluding perpetual capital securities holders' share, the profit is expected to be 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 315%-337% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 50%-58% [1] - The profit growth is primarily driven by increased product sales volume, rising sales prices, and a decrease in raw material costs leading to a significant increase in gross profit [1] Group 2 - The company has nearly 29 million tons of annual design capacity for paper and wood pulp as of June 30, 2025, with over 5 million tons of new paper capacity added from FY2022 to FY2025, achieving a CAGR of 8% [1] - The company is expected to have a total of 700,000 tons of recycled pulp capacity, over 2 million tons of wood fiber capacity, and over 5.4 million tons of wood pulp capacity by the end of 2025 [1] - Future expansion plans include an additional 2 million tons of wood pulp capacity in locations such as Chongqing, Tianjin, and Beihai, with an expected self-sufficiency in raw materials reaching 10.2 million tons by 2027 [1] Group 3 - The demand for boxboard and corrugated paper in China has a five-year CAGR of 8.3% and 7.5%, respectively, with continued growth expected due to the ongoing development of the national economy and demand from consumer goods, e-commerce, logistics, and express delivery sectors [2] - Supply-side constraints are anticipated post-2025 as leading companies reduce capital expenditures, leading to limited incremental capacity and a gradual improvement in the industry supply-demand balance, which is expected to drive prices and profitability upward [2] - The company adjusts profit forecasts for FY26-28 to 3.85 billion, 4.24 billion, and 4.59 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.9X, 8.1X, and 7.5X [2]

业绩再超预期，浆纸一体化驱动价值重构 玖龙纸业(2689) [Table_Industry] 林纸产品 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 7.46 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 玖龙纸业公司更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 毛宇翔(分析师) | 021-38038672 | maoyuxiang@gtht.com | S0880524080013 | 本报告导读： 玖龙业绩再超预期，FY26H1 预计盈利 19.5-20.5 亿元，浆纸一体化驱动公司价值重 构 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万元人民币) | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (02689), with projected EPS for FY2026-2028 at 0.85, 0.94, and 1.03 CNY, respectively, and a target price of 23.1 HKD based on a 25x PE for FY2026 [1] - For FY26H1, the company is expected to report a profit of 19.5-20.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 315.2%-336.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50.3%-58.0%, driven by increased sales volume and prices, along with reduced raw material costs [1] - The main profit contribution is expected to come from pulp, with significant growth attributed to the increase in product sales and pricing [1] Group 2 - Incremental profit contributions are primarily from the integrated pulp and paper production capacity at the Hubei and Beihai bases, with new capacities coming online in FY25H1 and FY25H2 [2] - The Beihai base has 1.1 million tons of chemical pulp and 600,000 tons of mechanical pulp expected to be operational, while Hubei will add 650,000 tons of chemical pulp and 700,000 tons of mechanical pulp, along with additional paper products [2] Group 3 - For FY26H2, the outlook suggests that hardwood pulp prices are likely to rise further and maintain high levels, while cultural and white card paper prices are at historical lows, indicating potential for price recovery [3] - The profitability of the integrated pulp and paper production capacity is highlighted as a key outperforming factor, with additional capacity expected to come online in FY26H2 and FY27, alongside improvements in corrugated paper profitability [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's entry into a rate-cutting cycle may stimulate demand while simultaneously weakening the profits of pulp companies in Brazil, leading to supply control and driving pulp prices upward [2] - The industry is currently at a valuation and profit bottom, with paper prices at historical low percentiles and pulp prices also at low levels, indicating a safety margin for the sector [2] - The historical negative correlation between pulp prices and the US dollar index suggests that the Fed's rate cuts could be a key catalyst for price increases in the pulp market [2] Group 2 - Supply of commodity pulp is slowing, with limited new overseas capacity expected after 2025, and domestic self-sufficient pulp production is projected to add approximately 660 million tons from 2025 to 2026 [3] - Short-term demand remains resilient, with global hardwood pulp shipments expected to increase by 7% year-on-year, primarily driven by demand from China [4] - Current inventory levels are at a medium-low position, with global hardwood pulp producer inventory days at 44.7 days, indicating a strong price outlook for Q1 2026 [4] Group 3 - The cost of pulp varies significantly based on raw materials, with domestic pulp relying on imported wood chips having a cash cost of approximately $480 per ton, while using domestic wood chips can reduce costs to $420 per ton [4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The industry is at a valuation and profit bottom, with pulp prices expected to rise due to the US dollar interest rate cut cycle [1][12] - The supply of commodity pulp is tightening, with limited new overseas capacity expected after 2025, while domestic self-sufficient pulp production is increasing [2][19] - Short-term demand remains resilient, driven by Chinese demand, but structural impacts from self-sufficient pulp projects may suppress commodity pulp demand in the medium term [2][25] - Current inventory levels are relatively low, supporting strong price expectations for Q1 2026 [3][41] - Cost differences in pulp production are significant, with domestic pulp relying heavily on imported wood chips [3][33] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Cycle and Price Dynamics - The pulp and paper cycle is at a bottom, with historical price performance indicating a potential rebound [1][11] - As of January 16, paper prices are at historical low percentiles, while pulp prices are also low, providing a safety margin for the industry [1][11] - The US dollar's depreciation is expected to stimulate demand and drive pulp prices upward [12] Section 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Commodity pulp supply is slowing, with global capacity at approximately 36.14 million tons as of 2024, and utilization rates around 90% [2][19] - Domestic self-sufficient pulp production is projected to add about 6.6 million tons in 2025-2026, primarily from vertical integration projects [24] - Global demand for hardwood pulp is expected to remain resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 7% in shipments driven by China [25][26] Section 3: Inventory Levels - Global hardwood pulp producer inventory days are at 44.7 days, indicating a relatively low stock level [3][37] - China's main port inventory has decreased to 1.906 million tons, reflecting strong demand and continuous inventory reduction [41] Section 4: Cost Structure - The cash cost of domestic pulp production varies significantly based on the source of wood chips, with costs around $480 per ton for imported wood and $420 per ton for domestic wood [3][33] - The cost structure is influenced by the production of self-sufficient pulp, which may lead to increased domestic wood chip prices [44] Section 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Sun Paper, Nine Dragons Paper, Xianhe Paper, and Bohui Paper, which have strong cost control and high self-sufficient pulp ratios [4][56][57][58]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report - Date: January 20, 2025 - Industry: Pulp [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term pulp prices are restricted by the sector and weak downstream procurement, showing a wide - range oscillating trend with both upward pressure and downward support [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 05 contract was 5,374 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,362 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.22% [7] - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,900 - 5,700 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The price of Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5,400 - 5,420 yuan/ton [7] - **Foreign Offers**: In January, Chile's Arauco Company's foreign offers for wood pulp showed that softwood pulp Yinxing rose by 10 US dollars/ton to 710 US dollars/ton, natural pulp Jinxing remained flat at 620 US dollars/ton, and hardwood pulp Mingxing rose by 20 US dollars/ton to 590 US dollars/ton [8] - **Production and Sales Data**: In November, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 pulp - producing countries in the world decreased by 6.9% year - on - year, with softwood pulp down 7.6% and hardwood pulp down 7.3%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly [8] - **Inventory and Consumption Data**: In December 2025, the European wood pulp inventory was 759,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the European wood pulp consumption was 722,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In December 2025, the total pulp imports were 3.113 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. As of January 15, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 0.56% month - on - month [8] - **Demand Side**: In the cultural paper market, some idle production lines in South China plan to resume production. Some publishing orders have been picked up, weakening the rigid demand support for offset paper, and the mainstream quotes remain stable [8] 3.2. Industry News - Inner Mongolia Linle Bio - Energy Co., Ltd. plans to construct a pulp and paper integration industry upgrade project, increasing the production capacity from 100,000 tons/year to 200,000 tons/year. The project is divided into three phases: the first - phase project, starting in 2026 with an investment of 30 million yuan, will introduce a reel pulp board production line; the second - phase project, starting in 2027 with an investment of 50 million yuan, will build supporting power facilities; the third - phase project, starting in 2029 with an investment of 200 million yuan, will build a new production workshop and supporting facilities [9][10] 3.3. Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price differences in Shandong Yinxing, softwood - hardwood price differences in Shandong, inter - delivery price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [16][27][31]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 5.00 CNY [7][21]. Core Insights - The company is a leading state-owned enterprise in the specialty paper industry, focusing on both specialty paper and specialty materials, with a commitment to expanding production capacity and integrating pulp and paper operations [24][12]. - The specialty paper industry is experiencing weak growth overall, but the company is expanding its production capacity and optimizing its product structure to enhance competitiveness [2][24]. - The company has a stable revenue scale, with white card paper becoming a core business segment, expected to account for 50.6% of revenue by 2024 [24][25]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 7,403 million CNY in 2023, with a slight increase to 7,588 million CNY in 2024, followed by a decrease to 7,070 million CNY in 2025, and then a recovery to 8,374 million CNY in 2026 and 8,726 million CNY in 2027 [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -46 million CNY in 2023, recovering to 184 million CNY in 2024, but dropping to -50 million CNY in 2025, and then significantly increasing to 459 million CNY in 2026 and 540 million CNY in 2027 [4][13]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -0.03 CNY in 2023, 0.10 CNY in 2024, -0.03 CNY in 2025, 0.26 CNY in 2026, and 0.31 CNY in 2027 [4][13]. Production Capacity and Market Position - The company has a total production capacity of 230,000 tons for specialty paper and 90,000 tons for white card paper, with production lines located in Guangdong [12][29]. - The company maintains a high production and sales rate, consistently above 90%, indicating strong demand for its products [29][30]. - The company is focusing on technological innovation and product development to enhance its market position, particularly in high-end applications [19][24].

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Co., Ltd. (600308) maintains stable production and operations, with its core businesses in papermaking and chemicals progressing smoothly, and its financial condition remains robust [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The company confirms that there are no circumstances leading to voluntary or involuntary delisting [1] - Operations are conducted in strict compliance with the Company Law, Securities Law, and the company's articles of association, ensuring independence from the controlling shareholder in personnel, assets, finance, institutions, and business [1] - Related party transactions are executed based on market pricing principles, with no benefits being transferred to the controlling shareholder [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The papermaking industry faces challenges such as capacity adjustments and fluctuations in raw material prices, which have affected market valuation expectations for the industry and the company [1] Group 3: Value Enhancement Initiatives - The company is actively working on initiatives to enhance its value, including advancing the pulp and paper integration project, optimizing product structure, improving operational efficiency, and implementing valuation enhancement plans [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The pulp inventory has significantly decreased, leading to a notable rebound in pulp prices. The average closing price of pulp futures has risen by 563.2 CNY/ton to 5303.6 CNY/ton, with inventory levels dropping to an average of 154,300 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 47,375.8 tons [3][9] - The packaging paper prices are showing a mixed trend, with corrugated paper prices slightly decreasing by 30 CNY/ton, while other types like boxboard and white card paper remain stable. The long-term outlook suggests that the reduction in production by leading companies will continue to support price recovery [3][6] - The release of the "Guangdong Province Paper Industry Transformation Financial Implementation Guidelines" aims to provide funding support for the industry's green and low-carbon transformation, filling a gap in the national framework [4] - The industry is expected to experience a "supply optimization + cost support + policy backing" scenario, enhancing the sector's configuration value. The demand for packaging paper is showing resilience, while the supply side is improving due to production cuts [3][26] Summary by Sections Industry News - The "Guangdong Province Paper Industry Transformation Financial Implementation Guidelines" were released to support the green transformation of the industry, with Guangdong's paper and board production reaching 26.48 million tons in 2024, accounting for 16.7% of the national total [4] Market Trends - The pulp market is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with expectations for pulp prices to recover year-on-year due to limited new capacity in 2026. The cost advantages of integrated pulp and paper companies are expected to become more pronounced [3][5] - The packaging paper sector is anticipated to see a recovery in price levels, with the supply expansion phase nearing its end. The industry is expected to improve capacity utilization and price levels in 2026 [6] Investment Strategy - The current phase is critical for "valuation recovery + industry prosperity," suggesting a focus on "pulp-paper integration + policy beneficiaries." Companies with integrated pulp-paper operations are expected to benefit from cost advantages and profit elasticity as pulp prices recover [26]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Co. emphasizes the importance of market value management and shareholder returns, highlighting the implementation of key initiatives to enhance its valuation and operational efficiency [2] Group 1: Company Initiatives - The 700,000-ton chemical pulp project has been successfully put into operation, improving the "pulp-paper integration" industry chain layout and enhancing cost control and risk resistance [2] - Share buybacks and increases in holdings by controlling shareholders have been completed on schedule, demonstrating confidence in the company's future development [2] - Cash dividends have been fully paid, ensuring substantial returns for shareholders [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The company's stock price performance has not fully reflected its intrinsic value, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, market preferences, and industry cycle fluctuations [2] - The overall market has seen an upward trend over the past year, but the paper and chemical industry faces challenges such as raw material price fluctuations and differentiated market demand [2] - The company's price-to-book ratio is currently low, indicating that market expectations for the industry and the company have not fully recovered, while also highlighting a high margin of safety and investment value [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company will continue to focus on its core business operations and enhance its refined management capabilities [2] - There will be an emphasis on improving communication with the capital market to actively convey the company's value [2] - The company aims to reward investors with strong operational performance in the future [2]