Report Overview - Report Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Coal Daily - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] -从业资格号: F3068848 [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided. Core Viewpoints - The coal market is currently in a complex situation with supply tightening and demand showing mixed signals. In the short term, coal price increases are expected to slow down [4]. Summary by Section Market Review - On November 17, port market quotes remained stable. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 840 - 850 yuan/ton, the 5000 - kcal coal at 740 - 750 yuan/ton, and the 4500 - kcal coal at 640 - 650 yuan/ton. Coal prices in different regions also varied [2]. Important News - On November 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the power production of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China accelerated. In October, the power generation was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, 6.4 percentage points faster than in September. From January to October, the power generation was 8062.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [3]. Logic Analysis - Supply: The impact of production restrictions persists. As of November 14, the coal mine start - up rate in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was over 3.9 million tons, and the overall domestic supply tightened. Imported coal prices rose despite weakening Chinese demand [4]. - Demand: This week's demand was average. Chinese procurement demand weakened, while procurement from Japan and South Korea was mediocre, and there was still no improvement in India's procurement demand. Most power plants were operating stably with a load of 60% - 70% and medium - to - high inventory levels. Most power plants preferred to fulfill long - term contracts, and only a small amount of rigid demand was purchasing at discounted prices [4]. - Market Outlook: With the arrival of a large - scale cooling wave, residential electricity and heating demand will rise, driving up power plant daily consumption. The railway transportation has returned to normal, with the average daily transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line at 1.3 million tons and the number of approved carriages by the Hohhot Railway Bureau at around 30. As of November 17, the inventory at Bohai Rim ports was 23.9 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. Coastal power plants had low daily consumption but continuous inventory depletion, while inland power plants had neutral inventory. In general, coal production in major producing areas is low, supply is tightening, power plant inventories are decreasing, and coal prices are expected to slow down in the short term [4]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing inventory and consumption data of different ports and power plants from 2022 to 2025, including national ports, Bohai Rim ports, downstream ports, and power plants in coastal 8 provinces and inland 17 provinces [7][9]

Summary of Huaihe Energy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huaihe Energy - **Industry**: Power Generation and Coal Mining Key Financial Metrics - **Electricity Generation**: 12.375 billion kWh in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 9.63% year-on-year [2][3] - **Raw Coal Production**: 4.4629 million tons, an increase of 8.18% year-on-year [2][4] - **Commodity Coal Production**: 3.6106 million tons, an increase of 7.89% year-on-year [2][4] - **Electricity Trading Volume**: 9.423 billion kWh, a decrease of 3.25% year-on-year [2][4] - **Coal Trade Volume**: 26.28 million tons, an increase of 12% year-on-year [2][4] - **Revenue**: 21.3 billion CNY [3] - **Total Profit**: 928 million CNY [3] - **Net Profit**: 792 million CNY [3] - **Total Assets**: 23.847 billion CNY [3] - **Net Assets**: 12.307 billion CNY [3] - **Earnings Per Share**: 0.19 CNY [3] - **Debt Ratio**: 41.61% [3] Restructuring and Capacity Expansion - **Restructuring Status**: Application submitted to the CSRC, expected approval next week [2][5] - **Post-Reorganization Capacity**: - Controlling installed capacity will reach 11 million kW - Equity installed capacity will reach 14.8 million kW [2][6][10] - **New Projects**: - Panji Phase II and Xieqiao Power Plant have commenced operations [2][6] - Four new units expected to be operational by the end of the year [2][6] Profitability and Market Conditions - **Profit Level**: Panji Phase I profit per kWh is 0.055 CNY [7] - **Electricity Price Trends**: - Decrease in on-grid electricity price by 0.02 CNY, but cost per kWh also decreased by 0.01 CNY, maintaining overall profitability [7] - Uncertainty in 2026 electricity prices due to market pressures, but coal price recovery and national price stabilization policies provide support [7] Future Outlook - **Performance Expectations**: Optimistic outlook for future performance due to enhanced asset quality and shared cost advantages from new projects [8] - **Asset Valuation Method**: Utilizes asset-based valuation due to the capital-intensive nature of the coal and power industry [9] - **Coal Supply Assurance**: Coal supply primarily secured through company-owned mines, supplemented by long-term contracts with Huainan Mining [11] Dividend Policy - **Dividend Commitment**: Company commits to a minimum annual cash dividend of 0.19 CNY per share (before tax) from 2025 to 2027 [14]

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks are experiencing significant declines, with major companies like China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy reporting drops in their stock prices amid a backdrop of falling coal prices and mixed quarterly performance [1] Company Performance - China Coal Energy reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.86 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, but the decline is less severe compared to a 31.5% drop in the first half of the year [1] - China Shenhua Energy's net profit for Q3 was 14.411 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [1] Market Trends - Coal prices are expected to continue to decline year-on-year through the first three quarters of 2025, although there has been a noticeable recovery in Q3 compared to previous quarters [1] - The current coal prices are nearing short-term peaks, with expectations of a slight decline as winter approaches, although the overall decline space is limited [1] - The fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May is identified as the core reason for the recent price increases, indicating a long-term upward trend in coal prices [1]

Summary of Huabei Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huabei Mining - **Period**: First three quarters of 2025 - **Revenue**: 31.8 billion CNY - **Net Profit**: 1.07 billion CNY, a significant decrease of 73.7% year-on-year due to falling coal and coke prices [2][3] Key Points Industry Performance - **Coal Prices**: Average selling price of coal decreased by 311 CNY/ton year-on-year, while coke prices fell by 709 CNY/ton [2] - **Production Decline**: Coal production decreased by 2.06 million tons year-on-year, with sales also down by 2.06 million tons due to complex geological conditions and difficulties in transitioning between old and new working faces [2][4] - **Future Outlook**: Anticipated recovery of production to second-quarter levels in Q4 2025, contingent on geological conditions and operational stability [8] Coal Segment - **Production Data**: - Total coal production: 13.04 million tons - Total coal sales: 9.81 million tons - Average selling price: 804 CNY/ton, down from previous year [3][4] - **Market Conditions**: National coal enterprises are facing profit pressures due to price declines, but there is an expectation of price recovery in Q4 due to tight supply and increased demand from steel companies [4][14] Coal Chemical Segment - **Coke and Ethanol Production**: - Coke production: 2.64 million tons, sales: 2.67 million tons, average price: 1,585 CNY/ton, down 709 CNY/ton [6] - Ethanol production: 380,000 tons, sales: 360,000 tons, average price: 5,604 CNY/ton, down 298 CNY/ton [6] - **Financial Impact**: Revenue from this segment was 6.9 billion CNY, a decrease of 800 million CNY year-on-year, but internal controls helped reduce losses by 500 million CNY [6][18] Power and Non-Coal Mining Business - **Power Generation**: Generated 3.45 billion kWh, revenue of 1.62 billion CNY, net profit of approximately 70 million CNY [7] - **Non-Coal Mining**: Revenue of 1.1 billion CNY, profit of 240 million CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 36 million CNY [7] Future Production Expectations - **Happiness Mine**: Currently not in production, expected to resume in Q1 2026, contributing approximately 2 million tons annually post-recovery [10][12] - **Taohutu Coal Mine**: Main engineering completed, expected to start production in H1 2026, with high-quality coal expected to sell at around 550 CNY/ton [13] Cost and Investment Insights - **Cost Increase**: Significant increase in total operating costs due to rising raw material prices and new project preparations, although overall costs are expected to decrease year-on-year [21] - **Investment Growth**: Increased cash outflow for investments primarily in Taohutu Coal Mine and new power generation projects [22] Conclusion - The company is navigating a challenging market with significant price declines impacting profitability. However, there are signs of potential recovery in production and pricing, particularly in the coal segment, which could stabilize financial performance in the upcoming quarters [2][4][14]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that China Shenhua's net profit for Q3 reached 14.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10%, exceeding expectations [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the period was 75 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year, but up 10% compared to Q2, primarily driven by an increase in power generation [1] - For the first three quarters, the bank has raised Shenhua's earnings forecast for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 3% [1] Market Conditions - As of October 24, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal rose to 770 yuan per ton, a stronger increase than expected, attributed to extreme weather boosting consumption and reserve demand from power plants [1] - However, prices saw a decline over the weekend, and winter coal price trends are expected to largely depend on weather changes [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for Shenhua has been raised from 38 HKD to 43 HKD, with a reaffirmation of a "neutral" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the underlying logic for the recent rise in coal prices is due to supply constraints caused by increased safety inspections and production restrictions. It predicts that coal prices will continue to rise, especially if demand exceeds expectations, such as during a cold winter [2][7] - The report highlights that the domestic coal production has been declining year-on-year for three consecutive months from July to September, and this trend is expected to continue into October [2][11] - The report notes that the current low inventory levels compared to the previous year will reduce price suppression, allowing for greater price elasticity if demand increases [2][7] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report indicates that the coal mining index increased by 1.46% but underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, which rose by 3.24% [2][74] - It mentions that the price of thermal coal has stabilized after a rapid increase, with the current price at 770 RMB/ton, up by 31 RMB/ton week-on-week [2][34] - The report also states that the supply of coking coal remains tight, with prices reaching new highs due to strong demand from downstream industries [11][52] Key Areas of Analysis - For thermal coal, the report identifies ongoing supply disruptions and low port inventories as factors that make prices likely to rise [12][15] - In the coking coal segment, the report notes that prices have surged due to strong purchasing sentiment from downstream users, with some prices increasing by 30-100 RMB/ton since October [11][52] - The report highlights that the overall supply-demand balance in the coal industry remains stable, with expectations for further price increases as production constraints persist [2][11] Investment Strategy - The report recommends several key stocks in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, all rated as "Buy" [10] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply situation and potential demand recovery in the coal market, particularly in relation to the real estate sector [11][56]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a mixed outlook for the coal industry, with domestic coal production continuing to decline while coal prices show signs of upward momentum due to supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Coal Production - In the first three quarters of 2025, the raw coal production reached 3.57 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [2] - September's coal production was 412 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year, continuing the downward trend but with a narrowing decline [2] - Coal imports for the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 346 million tons, a decrease of 11.1% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Power Generation Demand - National power generation for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 1.6% year-on-year to 7,255.7 billion kWh, with thermal power generation declining by 1.2% to 4,696.9 billion kWh [3] - In September, total power generation was 826.2 billion kWh, with thermal power down 5.4% to 517.5 billion kWh, indicating pressure from increased hydropower generation [3] Group 3: Coal Prices - The average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao since October has been 721 yuan/ton, up 3.7% from September but down 16% from the average price in October of the previous year [4] - The price is expected to maintain upward momentum due to a potential tightening balance between supply and demand, with increased daily consumption of electricity coal and expectations of reduced domestic production [4] Group 4: Coking Coal Market - In September, pig iron and crude steel production were 66.05 million tons and 73.49 million tons, respectively, down 2.4% and 4.6% year-on-year [5] - The average price of coking coal at Jingtang Port since October has been 1,675 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.4% from September but down 12% from the previous year's October average [5][6] - The rebound potential for coking coal prices may be weaker than that of thermal coal due to anticipated reductions in domestic steel production [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal price is expected to maintain a strong upward trend due to multiple factors, including supply constraints and increased demand driven by cold winter expectations and export pressures [7][8]. - The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the coal sector, particularly in companies with high elasticity in their stock prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,954.93 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,915.57 billion yuan [2]. 2. Coal Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at the port increased by 43 yuan/ton week-on-week, reaching 753 yuan/ton as of October 17, 2025, marking a 6.06% increase from the previous week [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.52 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.13% week-on-week and a 3.93% decrease year-on-year [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to increased safety inspections and anticipated rainfall in major production areas, which may limit coal production and transportation [7][8]. - Demand is bolstered by expectations of a cold winter, leading to early stockpiling by power plants, and ongoing high demand from the steel industry [8]. 4. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended high-elasticity stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shanxi Coal International, and Jinneng Holding, among others, which are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies' dividend policies and growth prospects, with several companies expected to maintain or increase their dividend payouts [13]. 5. Market Performance - The coal sector has seen significant price fluctuations, with the report indicating that the coal price is likely to remain resilient despite seasonal trends [8]. - The report notes that the coal sector's performance is expected to improve as supply-demand dynamics become more favorable [8].

Summary of Coal Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the coal industry, specifically focusing on the dynamics of coal prices and market conditions following the National Day holiday in China [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Coal Price Surge - Post-National Day, coal prices unexpectedly surged due to several factors: - Increased daily coal consumption driven by prolonged high temperatures in southeastern coastal regions [3]. - Adverse weather conditions in the Yangtze River area reduced the output of wind and solar energy, increasing reliance on thermal power [3]. - Significant port closures in northern regions extended coal procurement cycles [3]. - Regional rainfall during the holiday affected coal production in key areas [3]. Optimistic Outlook for Q4 - The market holds an optimistic view for coal prices in Q4 based on: - Continuous upward adjustments in the bottom price of spot sales throughout the year [4]. - Ongoing capacity checks limiting coal output, with expected cumulative effects [4]. - Anticipated reduction in imports to around 40 million tons [4]. - Increased demand for thermal coal as heating season begins in core production areas [4]. - Enhanced safety inspections expected to further restrict production [4]. Short-term Constraints on Price Increases - Several negative factors may limit further price increases in the short term: - Completion of some procurement needs, reducing urgency for additional purchases [5]. - Expected decrease in the intensity and range of high temperatures, alleviating electricity demand [5]. - Unloading of previously stranded vessels will replenish inventories, reducing immediate purchasing pressure [5]. - October is traditionally a low consumption month for thermal coal [5]. Impact on Downstream Consumers - The rise in coal prices has significantly increased procurement costs for downstream consumers and traders: - Coal prices have risen by approximately 40 yuan, with shipping costs increasing by nearly 20 yuan, leading to a total cost increase of 60-70 yuan compared to pre-holiday levels [7]. - This cost escalation may lead to a reduction in non-essential procurement [7]. Market Sentiment and Price Volatility - Market sentiment has a pronounced impact on coal price fluctuations, leading to significant volatility [8]. - Short-term price peaks are anticipated, with potential for narrowing price increases or even declines [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics in Q4 - Overall supply and demand for thermal coal are expected to decrease in Q4, with supply reductions likely to be more pronounced [9]. - National coal inventory stands at 221 million tons, comparable to the previous year, indicating a reasonable inventory structure [9][10]. Weather Impact on Consumption - Uncertainty exists regarding winter temperatures, which could influence coal consumption: - A cold winter may increase demand, while a warm winter could lead to a decrease in consumption [11]. Supply Chain and Import Considerations - Supply conditions are relatively stable, with daily production showing a decline of nearly 5% year-on-year since July [12]. - Increased rainfall in Indonesia and restrictions may affect import volumes, while demand from other Asian countries could also impact domestic supply [12]. Trade Dynamics and Future Expectations - Increased enthusiasm among traders may positively influence the short-term market, but long-term inventory increases could have negative repercussions [13]. - Anticipated adjustments in pricing mechanisms and potential increases in price limits in Inner Mongolia are expected [15][16]. Regulatory Environment and Production Capacity - Safety inspections are expected to normalize production impacts, but increased pressure on overcapacity is anticipated due to upcoming regulatory changes [14]. - The total signing requirements for annual contracts are expected to decrease, with price adjustments likely to be upward only [15]. Regional Pricing Disparities - Inner Mongolia's pricing policies are set to align more closely with those of Yulin, addressing previous disparities [22]. Conclusion - The coal market is experiencing significant fluctuations driven by weather, regulatory changes, and market sentiment. The outlook for Q4 remains cautiously optimistic, but various factors could influence price stability and supply dynamics moving forward.

Core Viewpoint - The domestic thermal coal market sentiment has improved in mid-October, leading to a rebound in coal prices, with the main market price for Q5500 thermal coal in the Ordos region rising to 510-525 RMB/ton as of October 13, an increase of 10 RMB/ton from the previous week [1] Market Analysis - The short-term increase in coal prices is primarily driven by lower production from local private coal mines, alongside a rebound in both stockpiling and speculative demand, which has improved market sentiment [1] - Current production levels from major coal mines are stable and within approved capacity, while some local private coal mines are experiencing lower production or have not yet resumed sales [1] - On the demand side, downstream users are showing reasonable purchasing enthusiasm, with stable demand from non-electric end-users such as the chemical industry, and some users are engaging in moderate stockpiling post-holiday [1] - The rise in prices at ports and for large coal enterprises has also led to increased speculative activity among certain traders and users [1] - Market sentiment is recovering, with coal prices expected to stabilize and trend upwards; however, future price movements will depend on the release of winter storage demand before the heating season [1]