Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI) rather than merely addressing internal competition. Seasonal demand during the "迎峰度冬" period has led to a 4.1% increase in coal mining and washing prices, contributing to a 0.1% month-on-month rise in PPI, marking two consecutive months of increase. The strong correlation between PPI and coal prices suggests that stabilizing coal prices is crucial. The lowest coal price in 2025 may represent a policy bottom, with expectations for more supply-side policies as "involution" competition is addressed in the 14th Five-Year Plan. Despite unclear demand changes, coal prices are expected to fluctuate upward, with a focus on high-quality core assets as primary investment targets [5][6]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of December 12, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 745 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 49 CNY/ton. The average daily output of 462 sample mines is 5.571 million tons, up 59,000 tons week-on-week but down 5.6% year-on-year. Power plant daily consumption has slightly increased, while coal inventory at Qinhuangdao has surged, with a coal inventory index of 212, up 10.7% [3][5]. Coking Coal - As of December 12, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is stable at 1,630 CNY/ton. The average daily output of 523 sample mines is 750,000 tons, down 0.4% year-on-year. The daily iron output is 2.291 million tons, down 1.4% year-on-year. The coking plant operating rate is 77.3%, slightly up week-on-week [4][6]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the coal sector based on several criteria: 1. Companies with excellent resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. 2. Companies with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., Guanghui Energy, Jinkong Coal Industry, and Gansu Energy. 3. Companies with globally scarce resources benefiting from long-term supply tightness, such as Huaibei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Shanxi Coal International. 4. Companies with coal-electricity integration models that stabilize cyclical fluctuations, including Shaanxi Energy, Xinji Energy, and Huaihe Energy [6][5].

天风证券指出，动力煤和焦煤共性在于，两者均在环保督察和反内卷的大政策背景下，产量承压，对煤 价的止跌企稳起到了积极作用。另一个共性在于，直接驱动煤价上涨的因素，是在极度悲观走向较为乐 观的过程中，下游可能大幅提高了采购量，而这部分的采购量并不属于终端消费量，因此仅从平衡表的 缺口看，无法预判到本轮上涨的幅度之大。在本轮反弹之后，进口量环比增量较大，替代效应或较为明 显，导致煤价在四季度见顶之后难以持续向上突破。 ...

Group 1 - The domestic coal market in China has been experiencing a loose supply-demand situation since December, leading to a continuous decline in coal prices, with the price of Shanxi Datong Q5500 thermal coal dropping by 40 RMB/ton to a range of 615-655 RMB/ton as of December 5, representing a decrease of 5.93% from the end of November [1][3] - The supply side remains stable, with major coal mines maintaining production levels and private coal mines resuming operations, resulting in an overall sufficient supply of coal in the market [3] - Demand from coal-consuming enterprises is weak, as they are resistant to high prices and primarily meet just-in-time needs, leading to limited speculative demand from traders, which further contributes to the downward pressure on coal prices [3] Group 2 - Coal inventory at the three northern ports has been steadily increasing, reaching 26.75 million tons as of December 5, an increase of 1.49 million tons or 5.9% from the end of November, which supports coastal coal demand [4] - Despite the increase in coal inventory, the expectation of tightening supply in the latter half of December may limit the inflow of coal resources to the ports, leading to a potential decrease in inventory levels [4] - The price advantage of imported coal over domestic coal remains significant, with Indonesian Q3800 thermal coal being 68 RMB/ton cheaper than domestic coal, leading to continued high levels of imports to supplement domestic supply [4] Group 3 - As coal prices continue to decline, some traders may begin to show interest in bottom-fishing, while non-electricity sector enterprises may see improved production enthusiasm due to lower coal costs, potentially increasing coal demand [5] - The electricity sector is expected to see an increase in coal consumption as temperatures drop and power plant loads rise, with the operating rate of major power plants in Shandong at around 78%, indicating room for improvement [6] - Overall, the supply-demand situation in the domestic coal market may shift from loose to tightening, with coal prices expected to stabilize after a period of decline, likely around December 15 [6]

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 【2025.12.1-2025.12.7】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 发布日期：2025.12.9 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 煤炭供需弱平衡，政策或利于红利布局 liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 动力煤供给基本稳定，期待需求释放。本周，煤炭主产区供应 量基本稳定，由于终端需求不及预期，煤价继续回调，市场观 望情绪浓烈，随着供暖需求释放，煤价有望企稳回升。 焦煤需求压缩，预计煤价震荡运行。本周，焦炭首轮提降落地， 需求进一步压缩，导致煤价继续承压运行，随着下游冬储补库 需求释放、国内煤矿供应低位，预计煤价震荡运行。 权益市场涨跌互现，煤炭跑赢指数。美股科技继续反弹，外部 流动性宽松预期支撑风险资产；我国金融监管总局调整险资投 资股票的风险因子，预计将为 A 股带来超千亿元增量资金；证 监会放宽券商杠杆限制、起草 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and others, indicating a positive outlook for the coal mining sector [9]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price dynamics are primarily driven by "real demand" rather than speculative demand, with expectations of increased consumption as colder weather approaches [2][6]. - The coal market is experiencing a phase of price adjustment due to a lack of significant demand, with coal prices expected to stabilize and potentially rise as winter progresses and consumption increases [2][11]. - The report emphasizes that while coal prices are currently under pressure, the overall upward trend remains intact due to supply constraints and the potential for demand to pick up [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 0.54%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.18 percentage points, ranking 29th among CITIC sectors [1][76]. - As of November 28, 2025, the price of thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 824 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7 CNY/ton [35][76]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, leading to price adjustments. The supply remains stable, but demand is not meeting expectations, causing inventory pressures [11][14]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices are declining due to reduced purchasing from downstream sectors, with many coking enterprises pausing purchases to manage existing inventory [40][50]. - **Coke**: The first round of price reductions has begun, with steel mills becoming more cautious in their procurement strategies [56][74]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of coking coal has seen a cumulative decline of 50-130 CNY/ton across various grades, with expectations for further price drops in the short term [50][56]. - The average profit per ton of coke has increased, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for coking enterprises despite the overall market weakness [70][74]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Inventory levels for both thermal and coking coal are rising, with many downstream buyers halting purchases, leading to increased stockpiles at coal mines [45][56]. - The report highlights that the effective supply of domestic coking coal may gradually shrink due to regulatory pressures and limited new capacity [57][58].

Core Viewpoint - The coal prices in Shanxi province are showing signs of stabilization with a notable divergence among different coal types, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][4][8]. Group 1: Coal Price Trends - The average coal price in Shanxi from November 10 to 16 is 955.92 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.9% increase compared to the previous period, although the growth rate has slowed down [3][4]. - The price of thermal coal has shown signs of cooling, with an average price of 686 yuan/ton for thermal coal with a calorific value of 5000-5500 kcal, marking a slight increase of 0.4% [4][8]. - Coking coal prices are experiencing mixed trends, with some areas seeing price increases of 20-30 yuan/ton, while others, like high-sulfur coking coal, have decreased by 31 yuan/ton [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for thermal coal is being tempered by power plants favoring stable long-term contracts over high-priced spot coal, leading to increased inventories at northern ports [4][7]. - Coking coal demand is affected by reduced operating rates in steel mills, which have decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, resulting in a slowdown in restocking [4][7]. - In contrast, the price of anthracite coal is rising due to increased demand from the chemical industry and residential heating, with prices for large coal enterprises increasing by 30-40 yuan/ton [5][6]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Shanxi's coal prices are more stable compared to neighboring provinces like Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, where coal prices have seen declines due to oversupply and weak demand [7][8]. - While Shanxi's coal prices have stabilized, they still reflect a 2.9% increase, showcasing the structural advantages of its coal varieties [8]. - The ongoing supply-demand dynamics will be crucial in determining future coal price trends, with expectations of continued stability and potential upward movement in prices for certain coal types [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that while port coal prices remain stable, prices in production areas are continuing to rise, influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand from power plants [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Despite entering the peak season, the likelihood of a significant increase in supply from production areas is low due to strong regulatory measures [1]. - The daily coal consumption by power plants is continuously increasing, and as temperatures drop and industrial production accelerates towards year-end, the demand for electricity and coal is expected to gradually materialize [1]. Inventory and Pricing Outlook - Port inventories have accumulated due to shipping disruptions, but with improving weather conditions, these inventories are expected to decrease [1]. - The available cargo at ports remains tight due to railway capacity limitations, and strong support for shipping costs is noted [1]. - Once demand is fully released, there is potential for coal prices to rise, with a possibility of reaching a peak of 1000 yuan/ton by year-end [1].

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks continue to decline, with notable drops in major companies such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy, indicating a bearish trend in the coal sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, China Coal Energy (01898) fell by 4.48% to HKD 10.87, Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) decreased by 3.71% to HKD 10.63, China Shenhua Energy (01088) dropped by 1.56% to HKD 40.36, and Yancoal Australia (03668) declined by 0.87% to HKD 27.22 [1] Group 2: Coal Price Trends - Coal prices have risen above RMB 830 per ton, but a short-term peak in coal prices may have been reached. In October, the output of industrial raw coal was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but month-on-month stable [1] - The fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May is identified as the core reason for the recent price increases, suggesting a long-term upward trend in coal prices remains intact [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Dongwu Securities, coal companies are expected to see their earnings bottom out starting from the third quarter, with coal prices projected to stabilize as they are anticipated to reach a low point in Q2 2025. This stability is expected to benefit leading companies, ensuring consistent profitability [1] - The expected decline in insurance capital costs may lead to a decrease in dividend yields for major players like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal from approximately 4.5% in 2025 to around 3.5% by mid-2026 [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks continue to decline, with China Coal Energy (601898) down 4.48% to HKD 10.87, Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) down 3.71% to HKD 10.63, China Shenhua Energy (601088) down 1.56% to HKD 40.36, and Yancoal Australia (03668) down 0.87% to HKD 27.22 [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, coal prices have risen above CNY 830 per ton, but the short-term surge may be coming to an end. In October, the output of industrial raw coal was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but month-on-month stable [1] - The fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May is identified as the core reason for the current price increase, indicating that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices will remain unchanged [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities suggests that high dividend logic indicates coal prices are expected to bottom out in Q2 2025, with coal companies' performance starting to recover from Q3. Future stability in coal prices is anticipated to support sustained profitability for leading companies [1] - It is projected that as insurance capital costs continue to decline, high dividend stocks like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) may see their dividend yield decrease from approximately 4.5% in 2025 to around 3.5% by mid-2026 [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks are experiencing significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06, Yancoal Australia (03668) down 3.42% to HKD 27.64, China Shenhua Energy (01088) down 2.73% to HKD 40.6, and China Coal Energy (01898) down 2.47% to HKD 11.46 [1] - Despite a year-on-year decline in coal prices expected through the first three quarters of 2025, there has been a noticeable quarter-on-quarter recovery in coal prices in the third quarter due to the impact of "anti-involution" [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, coal prices have risen above CNY 830 per ton, and it is believed that the short-term unexpected rise in coal prices may be coming to an end [1] Group 2 - In October, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 410 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] - The fundamental reason for the recent rise in coal prices since May is a significant reversal in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry, indicating that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices is unlikely to change [1]