Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [28]. Core Insights - As of December 25, the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index increased by 6.2% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.2 percentage points, ranking second among 31 Shenwan industries. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 32.8%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 14.9 percentage points, ranking seventh among the 31 industries [2][9]. - All sub-sectors of the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index saw gains in the past two weeks, with the chemical fiber sector up 10.2%, plastics up 8.9%, and chemical products up 5.8% [11]. - Among the 406 listed companies in the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index, 328 saw their stock prices rise, with Yuan Chuang Co., Shen Jian Co., and Dongcai Technology leading with increases of 108.4%, 77.6%, and 47.4% respectively [13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shenwan Basic Chemical Index has shown strong performance, with significant gains across various sub-sectors, indicating robust market conditions [9][11]. Chemical Product Price Trends - Recent price movements include an increase in PTA by 8.32% and a slight rise in urea by 0.35%, while lithium hexafluorophosphate and synthetic ammonia saw declines of -3.43% and -2.46% respectively [16][17]. Key Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Encouraged Foreign Investment Industry Directory (2025 Edition)," which includes new categories such as bio-based chemicals [21][22]. - A significant oil discovery was made in the Bohai Sea, further solidifying China's offshore oil and gas resource reserves [22]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights the importance of the coal chemical industry, especially in light of new standards for clean and efficient coal utilization, which could present investment opportunities [24]. - The refrigerant market is expected to benefit from price increases due to supply constraints, with companies like Sanmei Co. and Juhua Co. showing significant profit growth [24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal and coke prices have shown a "V" shaped trend since December, with significant downward pressure initially, followed by a rebound due to positive market factors, although the supply-demand dynamics remain challenging [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures faced increased downward pressure after the main contract switched to 2605 at the beginning of December [1] - The market is experiencing a "double weakness" in supply and demand for coke, with slight declines in production from steel mills and independent coking enterprises [2] - Environmental alerts in northern regions have led to production restrictions, with coking enterprises reducing output by 20% to 35% [2] Group 2: Production and Utilization Rates - As of December 19, the capacity utilization rate for independent coking enterprises was 72.05%, down 1.11 percentage points, with daily production of metallurgical coke at 630,000 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons [2] - The average profit for independent coking enterprises dropped to 16 yuan per ton of coke, down 28 yuan from previous levels [2] - The operating rate of sample coal mines was 86.62%, with a daily output of 757,500 tons, slightly down by 7,500 tons [3] Group 3: Inventory and Demand - Coking coal inventory at independent coking enterprises decreased by 10,100 tons to 10,362,900 tons, while steel mills increased their coking coal inventory by 103,400 tons to 8,049,900 tons [3] - Domestic coke consumption was 1,019,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11,900 tons [2] - The overall inventory of coking coal at ports decreased by 213,300 tons to 2,861,700 tons [3] Group 4: Industry Position and Future Outlook - The coke industry is in a relatively weak position within the black industrial chain, with limited bargaining power [4] - There are expectations for winter storage policies from some steel mills, but the anticipated impact is expected to be limited [4]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with other ministries, has issued a notice to promote the coal industry from low-end to high-end and to upgrade coal products from primary fuels to high-value products, with the release of the "Key Areas for Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels (2025 Edition)" [1] - The 2025 edition includes indicators for coal consumption in coal-fired power generation and coal-to-natural gas, updating technical indicators based on national standards and policies from the past three years [1] - By the end of 2025, China's total ethylene glycol production capacity is projected to reach 29.865 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.93%, with coal-to-ethylene glycol capacity accounting for 993,000 tons per year, representing 33% of the total [1] Group 2 - There are approximately 26 coal-to-ethylene glycol enterprises in China, including major players like Henan Coal Industry, Yangquan Coal Group, and Yulin Chemical, with core production areas in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Xinjiang [2] - These regions benefit from low-cost raw coal and resource advantages, accounting for over 60% of the national production capacity, while provinces like Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, despite lacking coal resources, have some coal-to-ethylene glycol facilities to meet local demand [2] - The main consumption markets for coal-to-ethylene glycol are concentrated in East China and South China, with specific companies supplying various regional markets [2] Group 3 - The coal-to-ethylene glycol industry in China shows significant differentiation in energy consumption control and efficiency standards, with leading companies achieving breakthroughs in energy consumption through process optimization and catalyst upgrades [3] - These top companies utilize direct synthesis gas methods or improved oxalic ester methods, achieving a coal conversion rate of over 80% and a by-product recovery rate of 95% [3] - Currently, most coal-to-ethylene glycol enterprises have energy consumption levels concentrated in the range of 2.9 to 3.2 tons [3] Group 4 - Approximately 75% of enterprises in the coal-to-ethylene glycol industry can stably meet advanced energy efficiency limits and strict environmental control requirements [4] - However, a significant proportion of enterprises, about 25%, do not meet the standards, primarily due to the use of outdated fixed-bed gasification technology and smaller overall plant sizes [4] - There are currently nine long-term shutdown plants, with some production capacities already being eliminated [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements in the clean and efficient utilization of coal, highlighting the release of the "Key Areas Benchmark and Baseline Levels for Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal (2025 Edition)" by the National Development and Reform Commission, which aims to elevate the coal industry from low-end to high-end and promote the transformation of coal products from primary fuels to high-value products [1][2]. Group 1: Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal - Clean and efficient utilization of coal involves comprehensive application of advanced technologies and management practices across the entire coal industry chain to control and reduce pollutants and carbon emissions while improving coal utilization efficiency [1][2]. - The proportion of coal in total energy consumption is projected to decrease from 56.7% in 2020 to 53.2% by 2024, reflecting significant progress in energy efficiency and environmental emission control in coal-fired power generation [2]. Group 2: Updates to Benchmark and Baseline Levels - The updated benchmark and baseline levels expand the applicable scope by adding two new areas: coal-to-natural gas and coal-to-oil, alongside existing areas such as coal washing and coal-fired power generation [3]. - New indicators have been introduced in the coal-fired power generation sector, including heat coal consumption metrics, and efficiency indicators for brown coal-based ammonia production, reflecting the development trends in energy efficiency [3]. Group 3: Implementation and Future Directions - The notification encourages industry enterprises to upgrade and transform projects in line with actual conditions and long-term development goals, aiming for new coal development projects to meet benchmark levels [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance efforts in promoting clean and efficient coal utilization, contributing to the establishment of a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system [4].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 24, 2025 [1] - Report Name: GOLDTRUST FUTURES DAILY REPORT Investment Ratings - The report is bullish on the coking coal main contract [2] Core Views - There are five reasons to be bullish on the coking coal main contract: low valuation, policy support, approaching restocking demand, tightening supply, and sentiment repair [3] - For the stock index futures, the cycle shows a pullback after reaching a high, but the decline is limited, and the strong feature remains unchanged. It is recommended to buy on dips and not to chase the rise [5] - Gold shows signs of starting to rise again after a period of sideways consolidation, and it is advisable to try going long [10] - Iron ore is searching for a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [14] - Glass is expected to be weak in the short - term, with a bearish view on the daily - line level [16] - Methanol in the sales area is showing a strong market due to factors such as increased freight costs and growing demand [19] - Pulp demand is expected to improve overall, and an oscillating trend is predicted [22] Summary by Categories Coking Coal - Valuation has reached a low level, with a cumulative decline of over 20% in December, hitting a new low for the year. The current price is lower than the Mongolian coal import cost line, and the spot premium over the futures forms a safety cushion [3] - Six departments have issued a document to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and relevant policies are expected to improve the industry order and boost market expectations [3] - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 12% lower than in previous years. The pre - Spring Festival winter storage restocking window is approaching, which will create a phased demand impulse [3] - Some coal mines have limited production after completing their annual production tasks, and the winter Mongolian coal port clearance is easily affected by weather, leading to a narrowing expectation of import growth [3] - After the continuous outflow of short - selling funds, policy benefits have driven a sharp rebound in the market, and market sentiment has shifted from pessimism to repair, with sufficient technical rebound momentum [3] Stock Index Futures - The cycle shows a pullback after reaching a high, but the decline is limited, and the strong feature remains unchanged. It is recommended to continue to buy on dips and not to chase the rise [5] Gold - After a period of sideways consolidation, gold shows signs of starting to rise again, and it is advisable to try going long [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is further fermenting. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still searching for a bottom, and domestic demand support is weak [14] - Technically, it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [14] Glass - The daily melting volume has declined, and there has been another inventory reduction this week. The main driving forces are the supply - side clearance due to policy - end stimulus policies and anti - involution policies [17] - Technically, with consecutive negative daily - line closes, a bearish view is taken in the short - term [16] Methanol - Recently, freight costs have increased significantly, leading to higher arrival costs in the sales area. The demand has shown an increasing trend due to the stable 80% load of the newly built olefin project of Lianhong [19] - As the port methanol price continues to rise, the amount of port goods flowing back to Shandong has gradually decreased, and the market in the sales area is strong under multiple positive factors [19] Pulp - With the continuous boost of domestic demand by domestic policies, increased production cuts by overseas pulp mills, and the gradual clearance of backward papermaking production capacity, the demand for commercial pulp is expected to improve overall [22] - An oscillating trend is predicted [22]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with expectations for gradual recovery to a reasonable price level of 750 RMB/ton, influenced by supply constraints and increased demand due to seasonal factors [1][2]. Group 1: Coal Price Trends - As of December 19, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 703 RMB/ton, down 50 RMB/ton from the previous period, while the Guangzhou port price is 780 RMB/ton, having reached the estimated target price range of 800-860 RMB/ton [1][2]. - The current price has fallen below the coal-electricity profit-sharing level of 750 RMB/ton, indicating potential for price recovery [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in coal prices is attributed to ongoing supply tightening due to regulatory actions against overproduction and safety inspections, alongside rising demand as the energy consumption season begins [2]. - The demand surge is driven by early heating needs in northern regions due to cold weather and increased industrial production as the year-end approaches [2]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The release of the "Key Areas for Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal" policy emphasizes the shift towards higher value coal products and indicates that coal investment logic is increasingly driven by policy rather than just fundamental factors [3]. Group 4: Investment Logic - The price recovery process for thermal coal is expected to follow four stages, including the restoration of long-term contracts and reaching the profit-sharing level for coal and power companies [4]. - The target price for coking coal is influenced by its price ratio to thermal coal, with specific target prices set based on this relationship [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The coal sector presents dual investment logic: cyclical elasticity due to low historical prices and stable dividends from companies maintaining high dividend payouts [5]. - Key stocks to consider include those benefiting from cyclical recovery (e.g., Jinko Coal, Yanzhou Coal) and those with strong dividend potential (e.g., China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy) [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rise of coking coal is a rebound driven by short - term sentiment and winter storage expectations. Medium - to long - term, investors can gradually build long positions on dips, while in the short term, they should strictly control positions [2][3][4]. - For A - shares, the market had a small decline after a short - term rise. The 15 - minute cycle rebound has just started, and it is expected to rise next week. It is recommended to buy on dips rather than chase the rise [6]. - Gold shows signs of upward movement after a period of sideways trading, and investors can try to go long [8]. - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom with weak domestic demand support. It is recommended to trade within a wide range by selling high and buying low [10][11]. - For glass, it weakened today, and whether the rebound has ended needs further observation. In the short term, it can be treated as a sideways market [15][16]. - For palm oil, as the production area enters the production - reduction season, if Malaysian palm oil exports remain weak, there may be inventory accumulation in December. Investors should seize short - selling opportunities [18]. - For pulp, with domestic policies boosting domestic demand, overseas pulp mills reducing production, and backward papermaking capacity being phased out, the demand for commercial pulp is expected to improve. It is expected to trade sideways [20]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Drivers**: Since December, environmental protection warnings in the north have led to 20% - 35% production cuts in coking enterprises; year - end coal mine maintenance, policy "anti - involution" boost sentiment, and winter storage replenishment expectations are rising; relevant departments have released new standards for clean and efficient coal utilization [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, and domestic high - quality production capacity is steadily increasing, with a loose supply pattern. Real estate has dragged down steel demand, and steel mill hot metal production is low, making it difficult for the rigid demand for coking coal to recover significantly [4]. - **Key Levels**: On December 18, the main contract reached a maximum of 1,136.5 yuan. 1,200 yuan is a strong resistance level, 1,050 yuan is a short - term support level, and the 1,000 - yuan integer level has cost support [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Medium - to long - term, gradually build long positions on dips; short - term, strictly control positions [4]. A - shares - **Market Trend**: The market had a small decline after a short - term rise. The financial and real estate sectors supported the market throughout the day, and the Shanghai Composite Index achieved three consecutive positive closes. The 15 - minute cycle rebound has just started [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Next week, it is recommended to buy on dips rather than chase the rise [6]. Gold - **Market Trend**: After a period of sideways trading, it shows signs of upward movement [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try to go long [8]. Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: It is in the process of finding a bottom with weak domestic demand support [10][11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trade within a wide range by selling high and buying low [10]. Glass - **Market Trend**: It weakened today, and whether the rebound has ended needs further observation [15][16]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, treat it as a sideways market [15]. Palm Oil - **Market Trend**: As the production area enters the production - reduction season, if Malaysian palm oil exports remain weak, there may be inventory accumulation in December [18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Seize short - selling opportunities [18]. Pulp - **Market Trend**: With domestic policies boosting domestic demand, overseas pulp mills reducing production, and backward papermaking capacity being phased out, the demand for commercial pulp is expected to improve [20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to trade sideways [20].

《煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依 旧—行业周报》-2025.12.14 《重视煤价四段轮推断，稳煤价依旧 —行业周报》-2025.12.7 《煤价第四目标上穿过程兑现，稳价 逻辑依旧—行业周报》-2025.11.30 张绪成（分析师） 程镱（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 煤炭 2025 年 12 月 21 日 重视煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依旧 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 证书编号：S0790520020003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：重视煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依旧 动力煤方面：动力煤价格小跌，截至 12 月 19 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 703 元/吨，环比下降 50 元/吨，广州港价格为 780 元/吨，前期已经完成了我们估算的 第四目标价格区间，即 800-860 元区间。目前回调至煤电盈利均分的 750 元价格以 下，我们预计未 ...

南华期货钢材产业周报 ——下方有支撑，上方有压力，低位震荡 陈敏涛（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022731） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 上周在国资委会议再次提及了反内卷的有关消息、国家发改委提出的关于推动煤炭清洁高效使用文件、以及 多部门围绕提振消费、培育壮大新动能等密集发生的多重利好下，焦煤价格触底后大幅反弹，以及铁矿价格 的强势，直接带动了成材价格的反弹，成材价格反弹到压力位附近后呈现震荡趋势。基本面方面，成材自身 的矛盾基本面不大，整体维持减产和去库的趋势，但由于高炉和电炉的利润近期回升较多，成材减产的力度 可能减弱，上周螺纹的产量微增，近期高炉的检修量较多，热卷减产速度加快，上周热卷产量环比-5.4%，但 若未来高炉的检修量下降高炉和电炉利润维持高位，成材的供应压力可能增加；需求方面，成材维持淡季弱 需求的状态。炉料端，短期炉料对成材有成本支撑，铁矿短期偏强势，虽然港口库存呈现累库状态，但结构 上钢厂库存相较于往年偏低，有补库需求的支撑，但铁水维持减产限制铁矿上涨高度，上方亦有压力。焦煤 产量环比回升，矿山库存和 ...

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 21 日 冷空气影响仍存，成本支撑下供给 预计收紧，预计煤价有望企稳 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.12.13-2025.12.20） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 12 月 19 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 506、600、703 元/吨，均环比下跌 42 元/吨。供给端，据 中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 163.96 万吨，环比上周减少 17.5 万 吨，同 ...