Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Methanol has continued its weak and volatile trend recently. The price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream replenishment drive. It is recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the current trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 3, 2025, compared to October 30, MA01 decreased by 28 yuan/ton (-1.27%) to 2180 yuan/ton, MA05 decreased by 24 yuan/ton (-1.05%) to 2260 yuan/ton, and MA09 decreased by 26 yuan/ton (-1.15%) to 2240 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Among different regions, prices in most regions decreased slightly, except for Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Hubei where prices remained unchanged. For example, the price in Taicang decreased by 32.50 yuan/ton (-1.48%) to 2157.50 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.22%) to 2235 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Upstream coal and natural gas prices remained stable. The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 220.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained at - 1100 yuan/ton. Among downstream products, the profit of East China MTO increased by 114.50 yuan/ton (18.17%) to - 515.57 yuan/ton, while the profit of acetic acid decreased by 45.25 yuan/ton (-9.66%) to 423 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 was oversold at the end of the session, opening at 2202 yuan/ton, closing at 2180 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 826,939 lots and an open interest of 1,350,958, showing increasing volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: For far - month arriving methanol cargoes from other Middle - East regions, the reference negotiation was at - 4 - 1.9%, with buyers' bids at - 4%. Some far - month arriving cargoes from a Middle - East country were reported to have been traded at - 2% and - 3%. Attention should be paid to the actual operating load of methanol plants in a Middle - East country [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic and Outlook - **Current Situation**: Methanol has weakened recently. In terms of valuation, the price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices. In terms of driving factors, the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream replenishment drive [1]. - **Outlook**: The inventory turning point may occur around mid - November. Future driving factors may come from possible supply reductions, such as the expected gas restrictions in Iran. Overall, it is necessary to wait before going long on methanol [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines, with a view score of 0 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The port inventory pressure of methanol persists, and the winter inspection plan in Iran has not been announced yet. If Iran fails to conduct winter inspections, the port inventory pressure will be difficult to relieve. Inland inventory has further increased, with coal - based methanol production resuming in November. The demand for inland MTO has declined, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - term spreads, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., MA2601 - MA2605, MA2605 - MA2609, MA2609 - MA2601) [7][8][12] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [7][27][34] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated operations). The port total inventory is 1506470 tons (-5730 tons), and the downstream MTO operating rate is 90.27% (-0.15%) [3][7][37] 4. Regional Price Differences - It shows various regional price differences, such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest (-280), the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550), and the difference between Taicang and Lunan (-250), etc. [3][7][41] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [7][51][60] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Inter - term: Conduct a sell - high reverse spread for MA2601 - MA2605 - Cross - variety: None [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall production of methanol decreased due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than capacity outputs from recovery. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises increased this week, while the port inventory fluctuated slightly. It is expected that the port methanol inventory will accumulate next week. The overall operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry decreased this week, but it is expected to increase next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2200 - 2260 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2208 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 1320963 lots, an increase of 123548 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 253892 lots, a decrease of 33714 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 11997, a decrease of 125 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2170 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2020 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 150 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract was - 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 258 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 324 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 267 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 66 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.34 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.09 dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 99.73 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 50.92 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons. The import profit of methanol was - 7.63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88 yuan. The monthly import volume was 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 376100 tons, an increase of 15700 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 38.87%, a decrease of 2.01 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid was 74.4%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.79%, an increase of 4.67 percentage points; the operating rate of olefins was 90.43%, a decrease of 1.96 percentage points. The disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 773 yuan/ton, an increase of 113 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 19.87%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.45%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.45%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 29, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 37.61 tons, an increase of 1.57 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 4.36%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 21.56 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 150.65 tons, a decrease of 0.57 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 2.97 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 2.40 tons. The domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 91.28%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port still faces high inventory pressure, and the port basis continues to consolidate weakly. The sanctions on Russian oil by Europe and the United States may affect the attitude of methanol warehousing enterprises and downstream towards Iranian ships. The temporary short - term maintenance in Iran has occurred, but the winter maintenance plan is yet to be announced [3]. - Inland prices in regions such as the Northwest and Shandong continued to catch up with the decline on Tuesday. The inland atmosphere is average, and mainstream CTO enterprises have not shown active procurement. Coal - based methanol production increased further in November, and inland inventories started to build up from a low level. The demand for inland MTO has declined, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures are provided, including the basis of methanol in Taicang and the main contract, and the basis of methanol in different regions against the main futures, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - methanol 05, methanol 05 - methanol 09, methanol 09 - methanol 01) [7][11][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China) [26][31][32] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - Illustrations cover the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [34][35][41] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures present price differences between regions such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [39][49][54] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Diagrams display the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][56][59]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core View - Methanol continued its weak and volatile market. The price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices, and the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. It is expected that the inventory turning point may be around mid - November, and the subsequent possible drive lies in the possible reduction on the supply side. It is recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the current trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents 1. Price and Change - Methanol futures prices (MA01, MA05, MA09) decreased on October 28, 2025, compared with October 27, 2025. For example, MA01 fell from 2268 yuan/ton to 2241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton (-1.19%) [1] - Most methanol spot prices in different regions decreased, but prices in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia increased slightly. For example, the price in Sichuan - Chongqing rose from 2190 yuan/ton to 2195 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton (0.23%) [1] - Coal spot prices decreased, such as the price of Buzhoukesi Q5500 coal fell from 575 yuan/ton to 555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-3.48%) [1] - Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Situation - Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 238.10 yuan/ton to 230.70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.40 yuan/ton (-3.11%) [1] - Natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 1100.00 yuan/ton [1] - Northwest MTO profit decreased from 33.00 yuan/ton to 23.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan/ton (-30.30%), while East China MTO profit increased from - 747.07 yuan/ton to - 714.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.50 yuan/ton (4.35%) [1] - Most of the downstream profits of methanol increased, such as MTBE profit increased from 341.48 yuan/ton to 380.80 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.32 yuan/ton (11.51%) [1] 3. Important Information - Domestic methanol futures: The main contract MA2601 fell weakly, opening at 2267 yuan/ton, closing at 2241 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 685,035 lots and open interest of 1,221,292 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1] - Foreign information: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, a previously shut - down 1.65 - million - ton plant has restarted to 80% capacity, and the number of shipped cargoes from the port in this country is extremely small. The estimated total methanol shipment volume from this country this month is around 800,000 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall start - up of the olefin industry declined last week. Affected by cost pressure and downstream price decline, the start - up of olefin enterprises may continue to decrease in the short term. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2320 in the short term. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises decreased last week, while the port inventory increased slightly. The import of methanol in October is still expected to be sufficient, and the port inventory may still rise [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2268 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 1102546 lots, an increase of 21596 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 189610 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 13922, a decrease of 170 [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2215 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2012.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The East - West price difference was 217.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 53 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 260 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 324 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 269 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 64 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.34 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.05 dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.7 tons, an increase of 3 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 48.52 tons, a decrease of 0.92 tons. The import profit of methanol was 2.39 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.45 yuan. The monthly import volume was 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 360400 tons, an increase of 500 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 38.87%, a decrease of 2.01 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid was 74.4%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.79%, an increase of 4.67 percentage points; the operating rate of olefins was 90.43%, a decrease of 1.96 percentage points. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 905 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.08%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.31%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.38%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.38%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points [3] Industry News - As of October 22, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.04 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 21.57 tons, a decrease of 1.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.79%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 151.22 tons, an increase of 2.08 tons. The inventory in East China increased by 3 tons, while the inventory in South China decreased by 0.92 tons. The inventory at ports increased slightly. The overall production of methanol decreased as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts was more than the output of restored production capacity. The overall pressure on the supply side was not large [3] Viewpoint Summary - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 91.44%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%. The load of individual enterprises in the Northwest and East China decreased. Affected by weather and other factors, the unloading of foreign vessels at ports was still below expectations, and the提货 of mainstream social warehouses decreased significantly. The inventory at ports increased slightly. The import of methanol in October is still expected to be sufficient, and the inventory at ports may still rise. Affected by cost pressure and downstream price decline, the short - term start - up of olefin enterprises may continue to decrease [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The rebound of methanol prices is limited, and it is still necessary to wait before going long on methanol. The price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefins, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. The inventory turning point may be around mid - November, and the subsequent possible driving force lies in the possible reduction on the supply side, such as the gas - restriction expectation in Iran [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Cost Data - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2292.00 yuan/ton to 2272.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan/ton (-0.87%); MA05 decreased from 2329.00 yuan/ton to 2317.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.00 yuan/ton (-0.52%); MA09 decreased from 2285.00 yuan/ton to 2282.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.00 yuan/ton (-0.13%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The price in Taicang decreased from 2240.00 yuan/ton to 2235.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.22%) [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Port Water Cargo Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. - **Methanol Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 238.10 yuan/ton to 231.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.30 yuan/ton (-2.65%); natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 472.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profit of Methanol**: Northwest MTO profit increased from - 2.00 yuan/ton to 13.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.00 yuan/ton (750.00%); East China MTO profit increased from - 770.57 yuan/ton to - 727.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 43.50 yuan/ton (5.65%); acetic acid profit decreased from 477.00 yuan/ton to 468.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.00 yuan/ton (-1.89%); MTBE, formaldehyde, and other downstream product profits remained unchanged [1]. 2. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Price**: The main methanol contract MA2601 weakened. It opened at 2294 yuan/ton, closed at 2272 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 603,000 lots and an open interest of 1,080,950 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: The US dollar - denominated methanol market declined steadily. Some November - arriving cargoes from a Middle - Eastern country decreased by 2.5%. Sellers were under great sales pressure and had to reduce prices passively. The reference price in China was 239 - 263 US dollars/ton [1]. 3. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro sentiment was released after the meeting, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in nearly 10 years. Driven by the macro sentiment, the main methanol price first declined and then rose last week. However, from the perspective of the methanol's fundamental situation, the outlook for the 01 contract is not optimistic [2]. - The current shipping volume from Iran is around 800,000 tons. Affected by sanctions, the expected shipping volume in October is around 800,000 tons. The temperature in Iran is still warmer than last year, and the mainstream expectation for plant shutdown is mid - November. Considering Iran's price concessions, the expected shipping volume from Iran has been adjusted [2]. - On the non - Iranian side, the operation rate of Tebah has dropped significantly due to port fees, and it is estimated that the non - Iranian shipping volume will decline to below 500,000 tons, but the actual situation needs further assessment. Chile and New Zealand may fill the gap [2]. - In the domestic market, Baofeng made external procurement inquiries in the second half of the week but did not make actual purchases. Yangmei is expected to shut down for 40 days starting early November. Luxi MTO reduced external procurement due to profit reasons, and Luqing's methanol - to - hydrogen unit was shut down for maintenance for one month, both of which were unplanned [2]. - Overall, the inventory accumulation at ports has started to level off. Due to unloading and sanctions, the inventory endpoint in October has been lowered, but the inventory endpoint for the 01 contract has increased. The import cost is about 100 yuan lower than the 01 contract's futures price [2]. - The short - term trading focus is on the Sino - US negotiation. In October, Iran's shipping volume remained high, reaching 800,000 tons, and the market has little expectation for early gas restrictions this year [8]. - The long - term controversy lies in how to reduce the port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem of the 2601 contract cannot be solved, and the 2605 contract is expected to be stronger than the 2601 contract, with a reverse spread for the 1 - 5 spread. The process is affected by macro sentiment [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The macro - led methanol price movement contrasts with the weak fundamental situation of the 01 contract. Iran's shipping volume, non - Iranian supply, domestic plant operations, and port inventory all impact the market [2]. - Recommendations include reducing the short - put position for the 01 contract and selling call options for the 01 contract [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: No specific content provided. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: This week, the price of the methanol 01 contract was 2279. With high shipping volume from Iran and no vessel pick - up due to port closures, the 01 basis weakened [11]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: As Iran's shipping volume continued to accelerate, reaching 800,000 tons, and with little expectation for early gas restrictions this year, the 1 - 5 spread showed a reverse spread [12]. - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol is expected to trade in a range in the short term, with the 2601 contract operating between 2250 - 2350. The recommendation is to reduce the short - put position for the 2601 contract and sell call options [13]. 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Information on inland inventory includes the inventory of northwest methanol (excluding MTO), MTO inventory in the northwest, and inventory of methanol plants in the south and north lines, as well as national plant inventory and net plant inventory [22][26][27]. 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Information on port inventory includes the weekly inventory of Chinese methanol ports, regional port inventories (such as in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, etc.), and related data on port to - arrival volume, stockpiles, and shipping volume [37][39][40] 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [63]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading, option trading, and corresponding hedging ratios and entry intervals [63]. - **Positive Information**: Sanctions have led to some vessels being unable to dock and unload, and importer replenishment has slightly strengthened the basis. Lianhong Phase II's 450,000 - ton MTO unit is expected to start production as early as the end of November [66]. - **Negative Information**: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September and 800,000 tons so far in October [67]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - On October 26th, Chinese and US economic and trade officials held discussions and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [68]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - In the domestic market, the performance of production areas was weaker than that of sales areas. Although traders actively purchased at the beginning of the week, the prices in production areas declined due to factors such as no external procurement from northwest olefin plants and the intention of methanol plants to maintain low inventory [69]. - This week, the 1 - 5 spread strengthened mainly due to sanctions on Iran [71]. 4. Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The report tracks the prices of coal in Erdos and Qinhuangdao ports, as well as the market prices of methanol in Shandong and Taicang. It also includes information on methanol warehouse receipts and valuation [74][76][79]. 4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The production costs and profits of methanol from different raw materials (coal, natural gas, and coke oven gas) in different regions are analyzed, along with the profits of MTO units and traditional downstream industries [85][87][90]. 4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Operation Rate Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The operation rates of major methanol enterprises, different production methods (natural gas - to - methanol, coke oven gas - to - methanol), and downstream industries (MTO, traditional downstream) are tracked, as well as the weekly production volumes of different types of methanol [93][97][102]. 4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking - The import volumes from different countries, the external market structure of methanol, import profits, and price spreads between different regions are analyzed [129][130][131]. 4.5 Overseas Operation Tracking - The capacity utilization rate, production volume, and operation rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants are tracked [135][136][137]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The supply - demand balance sheet for 2025 shows the daily and monthly production, import, consumption, and inventory data of methanol, including different production types (CTO, non - CTO), demand sectors (MTO, non - MTO), and inventory in ports and inland areas [138]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - This week, in the domestic methanol industry, some plants in North China increased their operation rates, some in Central China recovered, and in the Northwest, there were both restarts and shutdowns for maintenance [139]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Downstream MTO units such as Xingxing and Chengzhi resumed or increased their operation rates. New demand projects like Lianhong Phase II's MTO unit are ahead of schedule and have started stockpiling. Iran maintains a high shipping volume [140].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On the port side, the port inventory rebounded on Thursday. Geopolitical conflicts have brought risks to Iranian cargoes, and the willingness of mainstream warehouses and downstream enterprises to receive Iranian ships may be affected, but there has been no obvious decrease in arrivals yet. The Marjan in Iran had a temporary technical shutdown, and attention should be paid to the subsequent winter inspection plan [2]. - On the inland side, the coal - based methanol operation rate has significantly increased from the previous bottom, and the inland inventory has continued to build up from a low level. The operation rates of traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE are low [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) against the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][11]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][34]. 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Data shows the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operation rate of Chinese methanol (including integrated ones) [6][36][38]. 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, between East China and Inner Mongolia, between Taicang and Lunan, etc. [6][40][47]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][57][59]. Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. - For inter - period trading, it is advisable to go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when the spread is low. - For cross - variety trading, it is recommended to short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when the spread is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of the week, the inland methanol price continued to decline. The market focus at the port is still on the issue of Iranian methanol vessels. The port's basis has risen rapidly this week, and the actual port inventory pressure persists. The coal - based methanol operating rate inland has bottomed out and is expected to further increase by the end of October, with inland inventory gradually rebuilding from a low level. Traditional downstream industries have low operating rates, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand, leading to a further decline in inland prices [1][3] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple charts related to methanol basis including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [6][7][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and various import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [6][25][33] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - There are charts about methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) [6][34][35] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts on regional price differences like the spread between northern Shandong and northwest, Taicang and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and southern Shandong, etc [6][38][47] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts display the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][51][54] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Go long on the spread between MA2601 and MA2605 when it is low - Cross - variety: Shorten the spread between PP01 and 3MA01 when it is high [4]