Supply and Demand Data - National operating rate is 79.09% (+0.42%), non-integrated operating rate is 70.85% (+0.41%), and international operating rate is 59.93% (-1.29%) [1] - MTO operating rate is 85.42% (-0.24%), with reductions in production from Chengzhi, Xingxing, and Luxi next week; traditional downstream weighted operating rate is 45.07% (-0.49%), with a decline in acetic acid operating [1] - Domestic inventory increased by 0.32wt, while port inventory decreased by 100,000 tons [1] Market Outlook - Methanol futures are showing a strong fluctuation, with spot and monthly procurement based on demand; forward selling is primarily focused on high prices, with a slight weakening of the basis [1] - Overall trading activity is moderate throughout the day; in the domestic market, coal prices have stabilized and rebounded, limiting the downside potential of prices amid significantly reduced profits in production areas, with expectations of continued fluctuations [1] - In the port market, Iran's gas restrictions have led to a significant reduction in operating rates, but shipments remain fast, with 270,000 tons shipped as of January 13; methanol-to-olefins (MTO) profits remain low, and some coastal MTO facilities have maintenance plans, which will suppress the upside potential of prices [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is bullish [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - The methanol market faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations due to unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle - East, concerns about methanol export impact, rebound in crude oil prices, significant port destocking this week, expected reduction in import arrivals after mid - January, and restart plans of olefin plants. It will experience short - term wide - range and bullish oscillations, with the 05 contract reference range at 2240 - 2350. The recommended trading strategy is to hold long positions [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 26 yuan to 2311 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China was 2257 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 7,351 lots to 450,000 lots, while short positions decreased by 7,059 lots to 599,000 lots [2] Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 59.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of methanol ports in China is 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 9,690 tons from the previous period. East China and South China both saw destocking, with inventory decreasing by 84,400 tons and 12,500 tons respectively. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample producers is 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.71% [2] - **Demand**: The signing order of northwest methanol enterprises is 46,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,800 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The olefin operating rate is 89.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 75.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%; the acetic acid operating rate is 76.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 67.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% [2] - **Import**: In November 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was 259.09 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. The largest import volume came from Saudi Arabia at 344,900 tons, with an average import price of 261.53 US dollars/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [2] - **Geopolitical Situation**: On the afternoon of January 14 local time, US President Trump said when talking about the Iran situation, "We will wait and see how the situation develops." The US government received "very positive statements from Iran", but the possibility of military action was not ruled out [2] Market Logic - Due to unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle - East and concerns about methanol export impact, along with the rebound in crude oil prices, significant port destocking this week, expected reduction in import arrivals after mid - January, and restart plans of olefin plants, the methanol market faces weak current reality but strong future expectations, and will experience short - term wide - range and bullish oscillations [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The methanol market faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations due to unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, concerns about methanol exports, a significant rebound in crude oil prices, inventory accumulation in ports and inland areas last week, expected reduction in imported arrivals after mid - January, and restart plans for olefin plants. It is expected to fluctuate broadly and strongly in the short term, with the 05 contract reference range of 2240 - 2350. The recommended trading strategy is to hold long positions [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose 37 yuan to 2299 yuan/ton, while the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East - China region fell 3 yuan to 2257 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 14,056 lots to 445,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 15,882 lots to 607,000 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 59.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 4.08 tons from the previous period. In the East - China region, inventory increased by 57,200 tons; in the South - China region, inventory decreased by 16,400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 447,700 tons, an increase of 25,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.94% [2] - Demand: The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 46,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47,800 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 237,500 tons, an increase of 29,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 14.16%. The olefin operating rate is 89.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 75.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%; the acetic acid operating rate is 76.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 67.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% [2] - Import: In November 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was $259.09/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. The largest import volume came from Saudi Arabia at 344,900 tons, with an average import price of $261.53/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [2] - Geopolitical: Trump ruled out the possibility of negotiating with Iran, and his tougher stance on Iran raised concerns about supply disruptions from OPEC's fourth - largest oil - producing country and potential US intervention, causing oil prices to climb to a two - month high [2] Market Logic - Unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East may affect methanol exports, combined with a significant rebound in crude oil prices. After inventory accumulation in ports and inland areas last week, imported arrivals are expected to decrease after mid - January, and olefin plants have restart plans. So methanol faces weak current situation but strong future expectations, and will fluctuate broadly and strongly in the short term [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the methanol industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation in Iran has eased but remains uncertain, and it is an important variable affecting the methanol futures market. The methanol inventory at Chinese ports remains high, and there are expectations of MTO maintenance, which may increase the inventory pressure in January and weaken the future destocking expectations if the maintenance is realized [2]. - Coal - based methanol plants maintain high operating rates, and the resumption of southwest gas - based plants depends on the progress in the second half of the month. The inventory of inland plants is rising, and the traditional downstream is in a seasonal off - peak period [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple charts related to methanol basis, including the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China, and the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][24]. III. Methanol Operating Rate and Inventory - The methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) are presented in the report [6][31]. IV. Regional Price Differences - The report shows the price differences between regions such as Lubei - Northwest, Taicang - Inner Mongolia, Taicang - Lunan, etc., and provides relevant charts [6][35]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - The production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether are presented in the report [6][49]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy is provided. - Inter - period: Expand the price difference between MA2605 and MA2609 when it is low. - Cross - variety: No strategy is provided [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is neutral for both unilateral and inter - period strategies, and there is no recommendation for cross - variety strategies [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total port inventory of methanol remains high, with a divergence where inventory in Zhejiang accumulates further and that in Jiangsu starts to decline. The inventory pressure is still significant, and the market is waiting for the expected peak and decline of the arrival volume. Attention should also be paid to the duration of the winter shutdown in Iran. There are concerns about the subsequent centralized maintenance of MTO due to low MTO profits. The expected maintenance of Xingxing in mid - January means large inventory pressure in January, and the possible maintenance of Shenghong and Bohua MTO in February - March and the first half of the year may weaken the de - stocking expectation from February to April [3] - The supply pressure on the mainland persists. Coal - based production maintains high operation rates, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Southwest gas - based production in the second half of the month. The traditional downstream is in a seasonal off - season with general performance, and the mainland factories are in a cycle of continuous inventory increase [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - There are multiple figures showing the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) and the main futures contract, as well as the spread between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][13][20] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures display the coal - based methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import spread (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China) [24][25][29] 3.3 Methanol Start - up Rate and Inventory - The figures cover the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated ones), the mainland factory sample inventory, and the overall methanol start - up rate in China [31][38] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report presents regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [35][43][47] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The production gross profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether are shown [45][53]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Cross-period: Expand the spread between MA2605 and MA2609 when it is low [4] - Cross-variety: None [4] Core View - The methanol market is affected by factors such as potential MTO device maintenance, high inventory, and seasonal demand. Attention should be paid to the duration of Iran's winter inspection and the resumption progress of southwest gas-based methanol production [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Cross-period Structure - The report presents multiple charts related to methanol basis and cross-period spreads, including methanol basis in different regions and cross-period spreads between different futures contracts [7][9][20] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The report shows charts of coal-based methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import spreads, etc [24][25][30] 3. Methanol开工, Inventory - The report provides information on methanol port inventory, MTO/P operating rate, and inland factory inventory [2][32][39] 4. Regional Spreads - The report presents regional spreads between different regions, such as the spreads between Shandong North and Northwest, Taicang and Inner Mongolia, etc [2][36][47] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - The report shows the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether [49][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend this week, with the MA2605 contract oscillating between 2,180 - 2,270 yuan/ton. The market will be influenced by the game between macro - sentiment and fundamental reality. Although the Venezuela attack event has brought short - term risk premiums and boosted market sentiment, the current fundamental support is not strong. Domestic enterprise operating rates remain high, some downstream demand is slow, and port inventories have increased significantly [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For methanol 2605, the fundamentals show that although the Venezuela attack event has not directly pushed up crude oil futures, it has brought short - term risk premiums. However, the current fundamental support is weak. The domestic enterprise operating rate is stable above 80%, some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, and the upstream maintains a low - inventory sales strategy. The traditional downstream demand in winter is slow to follow up, and some downstream enterprises have shut down. The market is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. The basis shows that the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2,245 yuan/ton, with a basis of 30 for the 05 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports has increased significantly by 113,200 tons to 1.1316 million tons, and the overall available methanol supply in coastal areas has increased by 39,300 tons to 634,400 tons. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the average. The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions. It is expected that the methanol price will show a moderately strong and volatile trend this week, with the MA2605 contract oscillating between 2,180 - 2,270 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some devices have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinyae; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May; some CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling; some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 693 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 258 US dollars/ton, the import cost is 2,247 yuan/ton, CFR Southeast Asia is 321 US dollars/ton. The spot prices in different regions of China have changed to varying degrees, with Jiangsu rising by 1.74% to 2,220 yuan/ton, Shandong remaining unchanged at 2,310 yuan/ton, Hebei remaining unchanged at 2,055 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia rising by 2.64% to 1,848 yuan/ton, and Fujian rising by 1.13% to 2,235 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract is 2,215 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous period. The basis is 5 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous period. The import spread is 3 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period [8][9][11]. - **Operating Rate Data**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, down 3.81% from the previous period. The operating rates in different regions have also changed, with East China remaining unchanged at 80.65%, Shandong dropping by 2.39% to 68.71%, Southwest dropping by 1.22% to 44.06%, and Northwest dropping by 3.55% to 81.54% [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory in East China ports is 755,900 tons, an increase of 26,400 tons from the previous period, and the inventory in South China ports is 412,700 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous period [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises' devices are in maintenance or shutdown status. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling and other enterprises' devices are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and maintenance losses [57]. - **Foreign Device Maintenance**: Some foreign methanol production enterprises' devices are also in different operating states. For example, some Iranian enterprises' devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and some enterprises in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, the United States and other countries' devices are operating normally or have completed maintenance [58]. - **Olefin Device Maintenance**: Some olefin production enterprises' devices are in maintenance or normal operation. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices are in synchronous maintenance, while some enterprises such as Yan'an Energy and Shenhua Yulin are operating stably [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "Oscillating Upward" [5] Core Viewpoints - After a period of weak fundamentals, methanol prices have rapidly increased. The main trigger was Trump's statement about potentially restarting sanctions on Iran, which reignited market concerns about Iranian methanol plants. The most significant change was the shift in the inventory accumulation expectation. Methanol is likely to enter an oscillating upward phase [2] - The near - term trading logic is driven by the enhanced willingness to hold inventory due to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants. The long - term trading expectation focuses on how to reduce port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem of the methanol 2601 contract cannot be resolved, and the 2605 contract is expected to be stronger than the 2601 contract, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [9][10] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Overseas market turmoil during the holiday, including conflicts between the US and Venezuela and unrest in Iran, may provide short - term support for crude oil prices and increase the risk premium. The main contradiction in the methanol market lies in the shift of inventory accumulation expectations and concerns about MTO profits [2] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread Strategy**: This week, the price of methanol 01 was 2120. After the price on the futures market first rose and then fell, the 01 base - spread remained stable [12] - **Calendar - spread Strategy**: This week, with the shutdown of Iranian plants, the 1 - 5 spread moved in a positive spread direction [13] - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol is expected to oscillate within a short - term range. The 2601 contract is expected to trade between 1900 - 2200 in the short term. The strategy recommendation is to reduce the position of short put options on methanol 2601 and simultaneously sell call options [14] 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - The document provides various charts and data on inland methanol inventory, including seasonal inventory in the northwest region, inventory of methanol plants in the south and north lines, and the amount of pending orders of Chinese methanol enterprises [21][22][24] 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - The document presents multiple charts and data on port inventory, such as weekly port inventory seasonality in China, inventory in different provinces and warehouses, and the shipping volume in Taicang [32][41][43] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range for methanol in the coming month is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2% [58] - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management based on different scenarios, including using futures contracts, put options, and call options [58] - **Positive News**: The 450,000 - ton MTO unit of Lianhong Phase II started in December, and the product will be available after the completion of post - holiday device approval procedures [59] - **Negative News**: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September, 0.86 million tons from October to now, 1.25 million tons in November, and 0.26 million tons in December [60] 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - The fundamental support is average. Although producers have no inventory pressure, considering the impact of winter weather on logistics, they intend to maintain low inventory and sell at reduced prices in the first half of the week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and some traders are short - selling, leading to a decline in the market in the sales areas [62] Chapter 3: Disk Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - In the inland market, with the restart of Jiutai's methanol plant, the expected demand for olefins will decrease, and the supply - demand pattern in the production areas is expected to weaken. In the sales areas, the demand is expected to increase. The price in the southern sales areas is strongly supported and is expected to remain higher than that in the northern production areas [63] - This week, the 1 - 5 calendar spread oscillated, mainly due to the increase in Iranian shipments [65] Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industry Chain - The document provides price trends of coal at the Ordos pithead and Qinhuangdao Port, as well as the market prices of methanol in Lunan and Taicang. It also shows data on methanol warehouse receipts and valuation [68][71][74] 4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The document presents the production costs of methanol from different raw materials (coal, natural gas, and coke oven gas) in different regions, as well as the seasonal profits of methanol production and related downstream products [80][82][85] 4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Start - up Rate Tracking in the Industry Chain - The document shows the weekly start - up rates of major methanol enterprises, different production methods (natural gas, coke oven gas), and downstream MTO units. It also provides data on the weekly production of methanol from different sources [87][91][96] 4.4 Import - Export Price and Profit Tracking - The document provides seasonal data on methanol imports from Malaysia, Venezuela, and Iran, as well as information on price differences and import profits [122][123][124] 4.5 Overseas Start - up Tracking - The document shows the seasonal capacity utilization rate of foreign methanol plants, overseas weekly production, and the start - up rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants [126][127] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The document provides a supply - demand balance sheet projection for the methanol market from January 2025 to May 2026, including data on imports, production, demand, inventory, and inventory changes [130]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the expected decline in external imports, the domestic supply pressure of methanol is expected to ease. In the last week before the festival, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a stable and rebound trend, with the weekly price rising by 2.55% to 2,216 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread widened to 34 yuan/ton [3]. - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support, and the supply in Iran, the main import source, is facing serious interference. The destocking of domestic port methanol inventory has driven the repair of port spot prices and strengthened the basis, which has enhanced the confidence of long - positions in the futures market. Before the festival, the domestic methanol futures fluctuated and stabilized, and the slight increase was the result of the "strong expectation (decrease in imports)" outweighing the "weak reality (weak demand)". It is expected that the domestic methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend after the festival [4][47] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Methanol Spot Price Rose Slightly and the Basis was Slightly at a Premium - In the week of December 31, 2025, the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China was 2,222 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton week - on - week; in South China, it was 2,192 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton week - on - week; in North China, it was 2,000 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. - Taking the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China as the spot reference price and the futures price of the methanol 2605 contract as the futures reference price, the basis was slightly at a premium, with a premium of 6 yuan/ton as of the week of December 31, 2025 [9] 3.1.2 Import Expectation Declined and Methanol Stabilized and Rebounded - With the expected decline in external imports, the domestic supply pressure is expected to ease. In the last week before the festival, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a stable and rebound trend, with the weekly price rising by 2.55% to 2,216 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread widened to 34 yuan/ton [18] 3.2 Methanol Market Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Operating Rate Slightly Increased and Weekly Output Slightly Increased - In December 2025, the domestic methanol market maintained a pattern of loose supply, with high operating rates of enterprise equipment and high - level weekly output. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol turned negative and the loss continued to expand, the domestic supply still increased. As of the week of December 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.58%, up 0.21% week - on - week, 2.57% month - on - month, and 7.83% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly output of methanol was 2.0722 million tons, up 16,200 tons week - on - week, 48,600 tons month - on - month, and 232,100 tons compared with 1.8401 million tons in the same period last year [20] 3.2.2 Delayed Unloading of Overseas Methanol at Ports and Increased Import Pressure - Affected by sanctions, weather, and special port fees, the unloading progress of imported methanol in October 2025 was lower than expected, and a large amount of goods were postponed to November for unloading. Iran's production did not significantly decrease due to high temperature and the "staggered peak maintenance" strategy. Some Iranian goods changed their routes to Shandong, which affected the port distribution structure but did not significantly reduce the total import volume. In November 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4176 million tons, down 195,000 tons month - on - month but up 332,500 tons (30.64%) compared with the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 12.6969 million tons, up 321,600 tons (2.60%) compared with the same period last year. The high import volume in November increased the inventory pressure in coastal areas and put downward pressure on methanol prices in the fourth quarter [23][24] 3.2.3 Methanol Downstream Demand Improved and Olefin Profit Slightly Rebounded - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 31.70%, up 0.08% week - on - week; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.79%, down 0.41% week - on - week; the operating rate of acetic acid was 77.61%, up 1.89% week - on - week; the operating rate of MTBE was 58.12%, down 1.00% week - on - week. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.32%, down 0.83 percentage points week - on - week and 1.44% month - on - month. As of December 31, 2025, the futures profit of methanol to olefin was - 300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week but down 304 yuan/ton month - on - month [26] 3.2.4 Port Inventory Increased Significantly and Inland Inventory Increased Slightly - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.1316 million tons, up 113,200 tons week - on - week, down 35,900 tons month - on - month, and up 312,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, up 18,600 tons week - on - week, up 49,000 tons month - on - month, and up 80,500 tons compared with 342,200 tons in the same period last year [34] 3.2.5 The Profit Margin of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Slightly Widened - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the manufacturing cost of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 2,120 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,370 yuan/ton. With the futures price of the methanol 2605 contract at 2,161 yuan/ton on December 26, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 41 yuan/ton, and the cost - profit rate was about 1.93%. In Shandong, the manufacturing cost was 2,022 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,273 yuan/ton, with a profit of 139 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 6.87%. In Inner Mongolia, the manufacturing cost was 1,988 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,238 yuan/ton, with a profit of 173 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 8.70% [39][40] 3.3 Conclusion - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices before the festival. Iran, the main import source, is facing serious supply interference. The destocking of domestic port methanol inventory has driven the repair of port spot prices and strengthened the basis, enhancing the confidence of long - positions in the futures market. Before the festival, the domestic methanol futures fluctuated and stabilized, and the slight increase was the result of the "strong expectation (decrease in imports)" outweighing the "weak reality (weak demand)". It is expected that the domestic methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend after the festival [47]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in methanol prices driven by U.S. sanctions on Iran and improving supply-demand expectations, indicating a transition from weak reality to strong expectations in the methanol market [5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Methanol prices have surged due to U.S. sanctions on Iran and improved supply-demand dynamics, with many Iranian facilities currently offline and some non-Iranian facilities also halting operations [5]. - The methanol market is experiencing a transition phase where the worst conditions are likely over, and the downside potential appears limited, suggesting opportunities for long positions [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Current inventory levels are high, with port inventories increasing significantly after a period of depletion, and inland inventories also showing slight increases due to high supply and seasonal demand decline [10]. - Traditional demand is weakening seasonally, with reduced operating rates for downstream products like formaldehyde and MTBE, leading to lower order volumes from inland enterprises [10]. - The reduction in imports is expected to be more pronounced starting in January, with Iranian facilities largely offline and domestic imports anticipated to decrease significantly in February and March [13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand landscape for 2026 remains positive, with new MTO facilities expected to come online, including a 450,000-ton facility already in operation and another 1 million-ton facility projected to start production [14]. - The methanol market is currently in a phase of transitioning from weak realities to strong expectations, with the expectation of significant inventory reductions in early 2024 [17].