Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As coking coal prices decline, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state. Upstream coal profits remain high, while inland downstream profits are still poor, leaving room for repair. Methanol is relatively over - valued. In terms of drivers, the return of inland and imported supply exerts downward pressure on methanol prices. Currently, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories and are unlikely to build further inventories. Port inventory accumulation is a likely trend, and the upward driving force for methanol is not strong [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On August 28, 2025, MA01 closed at 2373 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2383 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.72%); MA09 closed at 2225 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.98%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On August 28, 2025, the daily average price in Taicang was 2232.50 yuan/ton, down 17.50 yuan/ton (-0.78%); in Shandong, it was 2295.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.22%); in Guangdong, it was 2260.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.33%); in Shaanxi, it was 2115.00 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.12%); in Sichuan and Chongqing, it was 2180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hubei, it was 2340.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2055.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.36%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 140.50 yuan/ton, down 18.50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 2. Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: On August 28, 2025, the price of Datong Q5500 coal was 555.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-1.33%); the price of Yulin Q6000 coal was 557.50 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.89%); the industrial natural gas price in Hohhot was 3.21 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; in Chongqing, it was 3.14 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [1] - **Methanol Production Profits**: On August 28, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol was 432.60 yuan/ton, down 3.70 yuan/ton (-0.85%); the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol was - 462.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit of Northwest MTO was 423.20 yuan/ton, up 40.20 yuan/ton (10.50%); the profit of East China MTO was - 260.07 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan/ton (-2.77%) [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: On August 28, 2025, the profit of acetic acid was 309.06 yuan/ton, up 20.27 yuan/ton (7.02%); the profit of MTBE was 4.08 yuan/ton, down 26.24 yuan/ton (-86.54%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 291.60 yuan/ton, up 4.80 yuan/ton (1.62%); the profit of another product was 142.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan/ton (10.94%) [1] 3. Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range. It opened at 2372 yuan/ton, closed at 2373 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 461,214 lots, and open interest was 785,833 lots, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. All contracts had trading volume during the trading day [1] - **Foreign Information**: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some methanol plants increased their operating rates. Recently, the operating rate of methanol plants in that country has increased to around 79%, and daily production has continued to rise to a high level. Attention should be paid to the loading frequency and cargo flow direction [1] 4. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated within a range and closed at 2377 at night. With the decline of coking coal, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As coking coal prices decline, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state. Upstream coal profits remain high, while downstream profits in the inland areas are still poor, indicating room for improvement. Methanol is relatively over - valued. The return of domestic and imported supply exerts downward pressure on methanol prices. Currently, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, with limited demand for further inventory building, and port inventory accumulation is likely. The upward momentum for methanol is not strong [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased by 23 yuan/ton (-0.96%) to 2372 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 16 yuan/ton (-0.67%) to 2366 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-1.10%) to 2247 yuan/ton [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in most regions decreased, except for a 2.5 - yuan/ton (0.12%) increase in Shaanxi, and no change in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and the average price of 2180 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Inner Mongolia's Taicang spot - MA decreased by 2 yuan/ton (-0.84%) to - 120 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: Ordos Q5500 decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-1.01%) to 490 yuan/ton; Datong Q5500 decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.88%) to 562.5 yuan/ton; Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 562.5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The price in Hohhot decreased by 0.73 yuan/cubic meter (-18.53%) to 3.21 yuan/cubic meter, while the price in Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.14 yuan/cubic meter [1]. 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol and natural - gas - based methanol profits remained unchanged at 436.3 yuan/ton and - 462 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Northwest MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-8.55%) to 107 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit increased by 71.5 yuan/ton (22.03%) to - 253.07 yuan/ton; Acetic acid profit increased by 27.31 yuan/ton (10.44%) to 288.79 yuan/ton; MTBE, formaldehyde, and other downstream product profits remained unchanged [1]. 4. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak oscillation, opening at 2393 yuan/ton, closing at 2372 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 482,265 lots, and open interest was 754,731, with increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some methanol plants increased their operating rates. The operating rate of methanol plants in this country has reached around 79%, and daily production has continued to rise to a high level [1]. 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day saw MA oscillating weakly, with the night - session closing at 2361. Attention should be paid to the potential impacts of the market's partial reflection of the current logic and the anti - involution expectations，[1].

消息面 8月26日，常州地区国产甲醇价格参考2325-2330元/吨出罐；内地送到常州周边套利空间关闭；张家港 地区可售量几无，暂无报价；靖江上午价格区间参考2300-2330元/吨；南通地区甲醇进口货源主流商家 成交价格2310元/吨附近出库现汇；宁波地区甲醇进口货出罐成交参考2270-2300元/吨附近出库现汇，买 气一般。 机构观点 东海期货： 内地装置重启，到港集中价格承压。随着港口价格下跌，回流窗口即将开启，对现货有一定支撑，且 MTO装置计划重启，传统下游旺季在即，甲醇基本面有边际转好迹象，但供应过剩格局尚未转变，预 计价格震荡为主。 国信期货： 伊朗一套甲醇装置重启恢复，该国国内整体装置开工率提升到79%附近，日产量延续提升至高位，月底 至9月初沿海重要库区甲醇库存将达到满罐水平，关注后期非主力库区库存累积和转口情况。操作建 议：震荡思路对待。 据不完全统计，预计8月22日至9月7日中国进口船货到港量为97.75万-98万吨。国内煤（甲醇）制烯烃 装置平均开工负荷在81.41%，环比持平。 国内甲醇周产能利用率83.76%，上升1.36%，内蒙古新奥60万吨/年甲醇装置预期本周检修结束；下游总 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The methanol port inventory in China is expected to continue to accumulate. The demand for olefin devices is stable, and the industry's operation rate is expected to increase. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2395 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is 13 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the position of the main contract is 710322 lots, up 35053 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures is -112632 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 10466, down 100 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2275 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2080 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan; the East - Northwest spread is 195 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is -120 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 265 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 322 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam is 287 euros/ton, unchanged; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread is -57 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 2.71 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.02 dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 70.62 tons, up 1.92 tons; in South China ports, it is 36.98 tons, up 3.5 tons; the import profit is 5.65 yuan/ton, down 14.84 yuan; the monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, down 11.75 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 310800 tons, up 15200 tons; the methanol enterprise operation rate is 83.91%, up 1.51% [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operation rate is 42.04%, down 0.01%; the dimethyl ether operation rate is 7.02%, down 0.13%; the acetic acid operation rate is 89.01%, down 2.05%; the MTBE operation rate is 63.54%, up 0.15%; the olefin operation rate is 84.59%, up 1.47%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is -939 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 11.83%, down 0.39%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.94%, up 0.24%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.74%, up 0.15%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.74%, up 0.15% [2] Industry News - As of August 20, the total methanol port inventory in China was 107.60 tons, up 5.42 tons; the inventory in East China and South China increased by 1.92 tons and 3.50 tons respectively; the inventory of sample production enterprises was 31.08 tons, up 1.52 tons, a 5.15% increase; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 20.74 tons, down 1.20 tons, a 5.47% decrease; as of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.70%, up 1.45% [2]

空间已开启，但对港口市场提货暂无明显提振，预计港口甲醇库存继续累库。需求方面，上周各烯烃装置 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 稳定运行，陕西延长中煤榆林二期装置重启后提负荷运行，整体开工有所提升，本周中石化中原烯烃装置 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 甲醇产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2424 | 14 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 22 | 1 6735 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 675269 | -22877 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -104768 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 10566 | -100 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2295 | 5 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2072.5 | 2.5 | | | 华东 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report indicates that the expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has limited impact on methanol. The port inventory is rising rapidly, and attention should be paid to the tank capacity. The downstream MTO Xingxing is still under maintenance and is expected to resume work at the end of the month. The centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol is over, and the start - up rate will gradually increase in late August. This week, the inventory of inland factories has bottomed out and rebounded, while downstream orders have declined. The formaldehyde industry is in its seasonal off - season and is waiting for a bottom - up recovery [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure The report provides figures related to methanol basis and inter - term spreads, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, basis of methanol in different regions against the main futures contract, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts [6][10][21]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [25][26][33]. 3. Methanol Start - up, Inventory It presents data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated) [34][35][37]. 4. Regional Spreads The report shows regional spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [39][48][50]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits Figures display the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [49][58]. Strategy The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral, inter - term, and cross - variety trading [3].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is experiencing downward pressure due to weakened cost support from domestic coal prices, increased supply from domestic production recovery, and rising import pressures, while downstream demand remains weak during the off-season [1][5]. Group 1: Domestic Supply Dynamics - Domestic coal futures prices have shown a high-level correction, leading to a loss of cost support for methanol prices, which are now primarily driven by supply and demand fundamentals [2]. - As of mid-August, the average operating rate of domestic methanol plants was 79.00%, a slight decrease of 1.35 percentage points week-on-week, but an increase of 4.16 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Methanol weekly production averaged 186.33 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.80 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 7.90 million tons [2]. Group 2: External Import Pressure - In Q3, methanol supply from the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America is abundant, but international demand is weak, leading to increased shipments to China [3]. - In July, typhoon impacts delayed methanol unloading, resulting in a total unloading volume of 110.69 million tons, with over 200,000 tons postponed to August [3]. - August methanol imports are expected to reach 1.55 million tons, setting a new monthly import record, with ongoing high import levels anticipated in September [3]. Group 3: Downstream Demand Conditions - Domestic methanol demand remains weak, with limited recovery in operating rates across downstream sectors [4]. - As of mid-August, the operating rate for formaldehyde was 30.13%, for dimethyl ether was 9.17%, and for acetic acid was 86.56%, indicating limited demand recovery [4]. - Port methanol inventory in East and South China reached 89.11 million tons, a significant increase of 29.51 million tons week-on-week, contributing to a bearish outlook for methanol futures [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - With the weakening cost support from coal prices, increased domestic production, and high import pressures, the methanol market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The demand side shows that the olefin devices are operating stably, with an overall increase in the start - up rate. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2425 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 111 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest is 680234 lots, an increase of 5501 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 108124 lots, a decrease of 875 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts is 10766, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 261 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 284 euros/ton, up 8 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 61 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 2.76 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.15 dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 70.62 tons, an increase of 1.92 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 36.98 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit is 23.38 yuan/ton, down 2.02 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 310800 tons, an increase of 15200 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 82.4%, up 0.79 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.05%, up 0.43 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.15%, up 1.82 percentage points [2]. - The acetic acid operating rate is 91.06%, up 1.82 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 63.39%, down 3.23 percentage points [2]. - The olefin operating rate is 83.12%, down 0.77 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin profit on the disk is - 1027 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.26%, down 1.81 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.53%, down 0.08 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.43%, up 0.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.35%, up 0.45 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of August 20, the total methanol port inventory in China is 107.60 tons, an increase of 5.42 tons. East and South China ports have both accumulated inventory [2]. - As of August 20, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 31.08 tons, an increase of 1.52 tons, a 5.15% increase; the order backlog is 20.74 tons, a decrease of 1.20 tons, a 5.47% decrease [2]. - As of August 21, the domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 85.70%, a 1.45% increase [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's methanol port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the olefin industry's operating rate will increase. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 in the short term [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2424 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is -109 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 674733 lots, down 11543 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -107249 lots, up 10590 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 10766, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2070 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is -134 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. CFR China Main Port is 259 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 322 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. FOB Rotterdam is 276 euros/ton, up 4 euros; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia is -63 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas price is 2.76 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.15 dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - East China port inventory is 68.7 tons, up 4.5 tons; South China port inventory is 33.48 tons, up 5.13 tons. Methanol import profit is 25.4 yuan/ton, down 16.09 yuan; monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons. Inland enterprise inventory is 295600 tons, up 1900 tons; methanol enterprise operating rate is 82.4%, up 0.79% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Formaldehyde operating rate is 42.05%, up 0.43%; dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.15%, up 1.82%; acetic acid operating rate is 91.06%, up 1.82%; MTBE operating rate is 63.39%, down 3.23%; olefin operating rate is 83.12%, down 0.77%. Methanol - to - olefin disk profit is -1016 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.07%, up 0.26%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.61%, up 0.32%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.89%, up 0.48%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.9%, up 0.49% [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of August 20, China's methanol port inventory is 107.60 tons, up 5.42 tons; sample production enterprise inventory is 31.08 tons, up 1.52 tons, a 5.15% increase; sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 20.74 tons, down 1.20 tons, a 5.47% decrease. As of August 14, domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 84.71%, a -0.41% decrease [3] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - The overall methanol production has a slight increase. The enterprise inventory level has a slight increase. The port inventory continues to accumulate. The olefin industry's operating rate will increase after the restart of the Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin olefin device [3] 3.9 Prompt Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The port basis of methanol continues to consolidate weakly, and the ports are in a continuous inventory accumulation cycle. The overall overseas methanol operation rate remains high, with only a small amount of maintenance in Iran and the resumption of Petronas in non - Iranian regions, increasing the pressure of arrivals in China. The maintenance of the Xingxing MTO unit has dragged down the demand. The centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol is gradually over, and the operation rate will gradually increase in late August, which may drive the inventory in the inland to bottom out and rise. The formaldehyde downstream is in the seasonal off - season, waiting for further bottom - up recovery [2]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure The report shows figures related to methanol basis and inter - term structure, including methanol Taicang basis and main contract, basis of methanol spot in different regions relative to the main futures, and the spread between different methanol futures contracts [6][8][21]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit It presents figures on methanol production profit (such as Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (East China MTO profit of PP&EG type), and import profit (Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, and spreads between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China) [25][33]. III. Methanol Operation & Inventory The data includes methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [35][37]. IV. Regional Spreads The report shows figures on various regional spreads, such as the spread between northern Shandong and northwest, the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and spreads between other regions [39][45][48]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits It presents figures on the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [49][55]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging [3] - Inter - term: Wait and see [3] - Cross - variety: Wait and see [3] Market Data Inland - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 665 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton). - Inner Mongolia northern line methanol price is 2080 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton), with a basis of 284 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton); Inner Mongolia southern line is 2080 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton). - Shandong Linyi is 2345 yuan/ton (-9 yuan/ton), with a basis of 149 yuan/ton (+7 yuan/ton); Henan is 2210 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton), with a basis of 14 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton); Hebei is 2300 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 164 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton). - Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 295,573 tons (+1,885 tons), and the northwest factory inventory is 182,500 tons (-3,000 tons); the inland factory's pending orders are 219,365 tons (-21,435 tons), and the northwest factory's pending orders are 107,000 tons (-15,800 tons) [1]. Port - Taicang methanol is 2302 yuan/ton (-23 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 94 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton), CFR China is 262 US dollars/ton (-4 US dollars/ton), and the East China import spread is 17 yuan/ton (+8 yuan/ton). Changzhou methanol is 2425 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2300 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 96 yuan/ton (-9 yuan/ton). - Longzhong's total port inventory is 1,021,800 tons (+96,320 tons), Jiangsu port inventory is 548,000 tons (+50,000 tons), Zhejiang port inventory is 139,000 tons (-5,000 tons), and Guangdong port inventory is 213,000 tons (+43,000 tons). The downstream MTO operation rate is 83.12% (-0.77%) [2]. Regional Spreads - The spread between northern Shandong and northwest (-280) is - 45 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550) is - 328 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton), the spread between Taicang and southern Shandong (-250) is - 293 yuan/ton (-14 yuan/ton); the spread between southern Shandong and Taicang (-100) is - 57 yuan/ton (+14 yuan/ton); the spread between Guangdong and East China (-180) is - 182 yuan/ton (-2 yuan/ton); the spread between East China and Sichuan - Chongqing (-200) is - 133 yuan/ton (-6 yuan/ton) [2].