单边震荡偏弱，月间价差 持续走强 甲醇周报 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 2025/12/13 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结 | 行情回顾 | 港口库存加速去化叠加整体宏观对于未来相对悲观，05合约受到打压，1-5价差大幅走强，现实预期一般，单边震荡偏弱，短 期矛盾并不尖锐。 | | --- | --- | | 基本面 | 供应  本周国内开工为89.81%，环比+0.81%，同比高位。  到港24.78万吨，环比-12.82万吨，到港回落带动库存去化。  港口MTO开工77.54%，较上周下跌9.94%，装置装置如期停车。 需求  传统需求甲醛、MTBE开工下行，其余上涨，整体有所改善。  企业利润回到中性水平。 | | |  月间价差与基差出现明显走强。 估值  港口MTO利润继续回落，当前中性。  甲醇整体估值相对中性。 | | |  123.44万吨， ...

目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.12.12」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2605合约短线预计在2070-2170区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周港口甲醇市场区间震荡，其中江苏价格波动区间在2060-2120元/吨，广东价格波 动在2040-2100元/吨。内地甲醇价格弱势下滑，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1980-2007 元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2200-2223元/吨。港口低价货源持续流入并对内地市场形成 显著冲击。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量少于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量增加。 本周内地企业库存小幅下降，但雨雪天气导致物流匹配及运费调整，叠加当前主产区供应充裕且 部分大甲醇进一步提负中，短期国内甲醇生产企业总库存或有累积。港口方面，本周华东地区几 无国产船只抵港，倒流内地强势支撑沿江主流库区提货，华南地区进口及内贸船只均有卸货但主 流库 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-12甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：多空交织下预计本周甲醇市场维持震荡整理。内地方面，内地甲醇工厂暂无库存压力，但内地甲醇开工处 于高位水平，叠加内蒙大型甲醇项目计划再度重启，且部分上游工厂表现出强烈的出货意愿，供应端也暂无缺口。需求 来看，传统下游逐步进入需求淡季，但新增需求亮点显著：联泓新建45万吨/年烯烃装置计划在12月10日投产。同时， 冬季北方地区雨雪天气频发可能影响运输效率，销区下游企业为规避原料供应风险原料库存保持高位，但期补库需求仍 存，形成对价格的隐性支撑。港口方面，港口库存虽然延续小库但依旧高位，下游需求一般，浙江MTO装置 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The port inventory continued to decline, and the port basis strengthened. The reasons are delayed unloading and the flow back to the inland, but the arrival pressure in December is still high. The winter maintenance of Iranian plants has been implemented, but it will take time for the decline in future arrivals. Attention should be paid to the MTO maintenance plan of Ningbo Fude and the shipment volume from Iran. The continuous decline in coking coal and thermal coal prices has dragged down the coal - chemical sector [2]. - In the inland, the coal - based methanol production start - up rate is still higher than the same period. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Yangmei MTO, the low - load operation of Luxi MTO, and the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. The start - up rate of traditional downstream industries has slightly increased, with acetic acid at a low level, formaldehyde slightly rebounding in the off - season, and MTBE at a high level [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures are provided to show the methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as MA2605 - MA2609) [6][19] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import price differences between different regions (such as Taicang - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [24][25] 3. Methanol Start - up Rate, Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, the start - up rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the start - up rate of methanol production in China are presented [32][38] 4. Regional Price Differences - The price differences between different regions are provided, such as the price differences between Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc. [36][44] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - The production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan are shown [45][53] Market Data - **Inland Data**: The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton, and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 575 yuan/ton. The prices and basis of methanol in different regions in the inland are given, along with the factory inventory and pending orders in the inland and the northwest [1]. - **Port Data**: The price of methanol in Taicang is 2078 yuan/ton, and the basis is 25 yuan/ton. The port inventory has decreased, and the downstream MTO start - up rate is 90.82%. The price differences between different regions are also provided [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: No strategy is provided [3]. - **Inter - period**: Expand the price difference between MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low [3]. - **Cross - variety**: Shrink the cross - variety price difference between LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [3].

库存：截止12月4日：港口去库7.97万吨 【观点】甲醇期货低位窄幅震荡，换货思路持续，月内价差持续缩小，全天整体成交尚可。内地甲醇供 应随装置重启有所增加，但煤制和气制利润偏弱，需求端传统下游开工率小幅提升，冬季燃料需求形成 支撑。港口方面，伊朗限气导致多套装置停车，截止目前伊朗停车7套合计1220万产能，12月伊朗发船 34万吨，预估12月发货仍有70-80万吨。1月进口130以上，发货略超预期，近期偏弱震荡。 【策略】05MTO缩减仓(驱动1：目前海外开工已降低。驱动2：下游投产；风险点1：仓单增加；发运 加快) 【现货方面】现货成交：2070-2080短免，现货成交：01+8-10 【供需库存数据】 供应：国内开工76.19%(+0.45%)，非一体化开工68.26%(+0.61%)，国际开工61.81%(+0.79%) 需求：MTO开工率87.3%(+0.83%)，阳煤提负。山东某MTO新装置12月9日晚投料 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成 ...

煤化板块研发报告 专题报告 2025 年 12 月 8 日 甲醇的终点 第一部分 前言概要 【综合分析】 供应端，内地甲醇生产利润稳定，年内亏损性减产难以发生，国内供应 持续宽松。需求端，港口 MTO 稳定运行，难有增量，传统下游开工率季节 性下滑，需求不断走弱。港口方面，伊朗今年限气推迟至 12 月中旬以后， 国内进口量预计在明年 2 月份开始出现明显下滑，港口库存拐点继续推迟， 高库存压力持续存在。01 合约即将进入临近交割月，国内主流交割库均处 于满库状态，交割博弈预计将会加剧，在需求端暂无亮点，进口量持续高位 背景下，01 合约结束前难以解决高库存问题，预计 01 合约仍有下跌空间。 【策略推荐】 单边：空单持有 高库存压力持续存在，甲醇继续下跌。 风险点：1、当前，港口-内地价差基本持平，港口进口低价货物持续倒流内地， 尤其与西北主产区竞价抢占山市场。2、部分气头甲醇装置将进入检修周期，预计 12 月行业开工率或小幅下降，供应端压力有望边际缓解。3、冬季供暖需求增加可 能带动煤炭价格小幅上涨，进而推升甲醇生产成本，对价格形成一定底部支撑。 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The upward space of methanol 01 contract is quite limited. The reasons are that the overall profit of downstream MTO is poor, and further increase in methanol price may lead to downstream shutdown and negative demand feedback; downstream restocking willingness is weak due to profit levels and relatively high inventory of MTO enterprises and ports. It is recommended to hold the short put option of 01 contract until expiration and not to chase the rise of 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (closing prices): MA01 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.70%) to 2113 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.23%) to 2209 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 4 yuan/ton (-0.18%) to 2211 yuan/ton [1]. - Methanol spot prices (daily average prices): Prices in most regions decreased, such as -5 yuan/ton in Taicang (-0.24%), -7.5 yuan/ton in Shaanxi (-0.38%), -10 yuan/ton in Sichuan and Chongqing (-0.46%), while Shandong increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.22%) [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: Prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.43%), 5 yuan/ton (-0.76%), and 5 yuan/ton (-0.76%) respectively [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit increased by 6.3 yuan/ton (2.54%) to 254.4 yuan/ton, while natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at -1160 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit: Profits of MTO in the northwest and east increased by 1.4 yuan/ton (0.58%) and 0.5 yuan/ton (0.06%) respectively; acetic acid profit increased by 24.64 yuan/ton (4.17%), MTBE profit decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-10.94%), and formaldehyde and other products' profits remained unchanged [1]. 3.4 Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak shock, opening at 2128 yuan/ton, closing at 2113 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1.053 million lots and an open interest of 934,600 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1]. - Foreign information: Six methanol plants with a total capacity of 9.9 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are still under maintenance, and the daily methanol output has dropped to 14,400 tons. Attention should be paid to the number of loading ports in December [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy Hold the short put option of 01 contract until expiration [1].

2025 年 12 月 05 日 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,113 | 2,128 | -15 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,118 | 2,126 | - 8 | | | 甲醇主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 1,053,135 | 996,305 | 56830 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 934,683 | 948,396 | -13713 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 5,700 | 5,800 | -100 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 2,230,675 | 2,118,308 | 112367 | | | 基 差 | 基 差 | | -1 | -6 | 5 | | | 月 差 | MA01-MA05 | | -96 | -86 | -10 | | 现货市场 | 价 格 | 内蒙价格 | | 1,985 | 1,985 | 0 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the methanol market, indicating that port inventories have declined slightly from high levels. The import pressure in December is expected to reach an annual high, and the short - term port inventory pressure remains significant. On the mainland, coal - based methanol production is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period, and the inventory of mainland factories has increased slightly. The report also provides corresponding trading strategies [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Section I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures are presented to show the basis between methanol spot prices in different regions and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][23] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China, and the import price differences between different regions [27][31][32] III. Methanol开工, Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol decreased to 1349430 tons (- 14070 tons), with Jiangsu port inventory decreasing and Zhejiang port inventory increasing. The mainland factory inventory was 361320 tons (- 12392 tons), and the MTO/P开工 rate was 89.93% (+ 0.28%) [1][2][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report presents price differences between different regions, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, and between Taicang and Inner Mongolia [2][39][47] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether [53][57] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on MA2605 for hedging - Inter - period: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when the spread is low - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [4]

| | | 甲醇日评20251204:继续上行空间或有限 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/12/3 | 2025/12/2 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2128.00 | 2132.00 | -4.00 | -0.19% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2214.00 | 2232.00 | -18.00 | -0.81% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2215.00 | 2228.00 | -13.00 | -0.58% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2112.50 | 2122.50 | -10.00 | -0.47% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2225.00 | 2235.00 | -10.00 | -0.45% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2095.00 | 2105.00 | -10. ...