Core Insights - JD.com and Meituan are heavily investing in the hard discount supermarket sector, marking a significant shift in their retail strategies [2][3] - The hard discount model focuses on sustainable low prices through large-scale procurement and supply chain optimization, contrasting with soft discount models that rely on clearance sales [3][11] Company Developments - JD.com opened its first discount supermarket in Zhuozhou, Hebei, on August 16, attracting nearly 60,000 customers on its first day [1] - Meituan is set to launch its hard discount supermarket, "Happy Monkey," in Hangzhou and Beijing, with plans to open 1,000 stores nationwide in the coming years [1][3] - Both companies are strategically positioning their stores to compete with Alibaba's Hema NB, which has a significant presence in the hard discount market [3][5] Market Trends - The discount retail market in China is projected to reach 2.3 trillion yuan by 2025, indicating a growing acceptance of hard discount formats among consumers, especially in county-level markets [8] - The competition is intensifying, with multiple discount stores potentially opening on the same street, reflecting a crowded market landscape [9] Supply Chain Dynamics - Successful hard discount retail requires robust supply chain capabilities and effective product selection, with JD.com having a more integrated supply chain compared to Meituan [11][13] - JD.com has been leveraging its existing supply chain infrastructure, including its own brands, to support its discount supermarket operations [12][13] - Meituan's approach involves localizing its supply chain, but it faces challenges in matching the scale of JD.com's operations [11][13]

Group 1 - JD.com announced the opening of 5 discount supermarkets in Suqian, Jiangsu, and Zhuozhou, Hebei, in August, with prices generally lower than market rates [1][3] - Hema X membership stores, which were launched in October 2020, will completely cease operations, marking the end of a five-year journey [2] - Hema X membership stores expanded rapidly from 2021 to 2022, reaching 10 stores and nearly 3 million members by October 2023, but faced challenges leading to their closure [2][3] Group 2 - The discount supermarket sector is experiencing rapid growth globally, with a projected market size in China exceeding 200 billion yuan by 2024, indicating a significant opportunity for players like JD.com and Hema [3] - Hema's shift from a high-end membership model to a focus on discount formats aligns better with local consumer preferences for smaller, more convenient purchases [4] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with JD.com leveraging its supply chain and low-price strategy to capture consumer demand, while Hema's exit from the membership model reflects challenges in adapting to diverse consumer needs [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Hema's X membership stores are set to close, marking a significant shift in the company's strategy as it focuses on its main store formats and discount models [1][2][4]. Group 1: Closure of Hema X Membership Stores - Hema has begun shutting down its X membership stores, including locations in Beijing, Suzhou, and Nanjing, with the last store in Shanghai set to close on August 31, 2025 [1][3]. - The closure aligns with Hema's strategic focus on its main store formats and discount stores, as indicated by industry insiders [2][4]. - Hema X membership stores were launched in 2020, aiming to compete with Costco's membership model, but have not met growth expectations [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Context and Challenges - The membership store model in China has faced challenges, with Costco experiencing low membership renewal rates of 62% compared to a global average of 90% [5][6]. - Other retailers, such as Metro, are attempting to differentiate themselves by increasing the proportion of unique products offered [5]. - Hema's exit from the membership store segment reflects a broader trend where traditional retailers are moving away from membership models in favor of more established formats [7]. Group 3: Hema's Strategic Shift - Hema is pivoting towards hard discount formats and targeting lower-tier markets to create a new growth avenue [8]. - The company has merged its neighborhood and outlet stores into the "Hema NB Division," focusing on low-cost, high-frequency essential goods [8]. - Hema aims to open nearly 100 new fresh stores in 2025, primarily in third and fourth-tier cities, while expanding its neighborhood and outlet store presence [9].

Core Viewpoint - JD.com is entering the discount supermarket sector with plans to open five stores in Suqian, Jiangsu, and Zhuozhou, Hebei, focusing on large store formats and a wide range of SKUs, amidst increasing competition from other companies like Meituan and Hema [1][6]. Group 1: Company Expansion - JD.com's discount supermarket in Zhuozhou will have an area of 5,000 square meters and will offer over 5,000 high-cost performance daily goods, with prices generally lower than market averages [4]. - The first store in Zhuozhou is set to open on August 16, with four of the five new stores located in Suqian, indicating a strategic focus on this area for testing the new business model [4][6]. - The recruitment for these stores includes positions related to food service, suggesting a potential expansion into ready-to-eat food categories [4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The discount supermarket sector is experiencing rapid growth, with various players like Meituan and Hema adopting different strategies; Meituan is focusing on larger cities while JD.com is starting in lower-tier markets [6][11]. - Other competitors, such as Aolezi and Wumart, are also entering the discount space, indicating a trend towards price-sensitive consumer behavior [8][11]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Brand Strategy - JD.com holds a significant advantage with its extensive private label resources, which can enhance brand recognition through physical store interactions [7]. - The success of discount supermarkets hinges on effective supply chain management and the ability to meet immediate consumer needs, emphasizing the importance of dynamic product selection [8][12]. - The strategy of reducing distribution costs and brand premiums while focusing on private labels is seen as a more sustainable approach compared to aggressive price wars [10].

Core Insights - Wumart has launched a new hard discount brand called "Wumart Super Value" aimed at reducing prices through a streamlined product offering and deep supply chain collaboration [1][2] - The store size is reduced to 800-1000 square meters, with a focus on essential high-frequency items, limiting the total number of SKUs to under 1300 [1] - Over 60% of the products in the store are Wumart's private label, ensuring low prices and high quality [1][2] Product Strategy - The product selection emphasizes fresh produce, including fruits, vegetables, fresh meat, and baked goods, ensuring high quality through direct cold chain logistics [2] - The bakery section employs a small-batch, multi-round fresh baking model to guarantee freshness for customers [2] Expansion Plans - Wumart plans to open 6 stores on July 25 and aims to have a total of 25 stores by the end of the year [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [1]. Core Insights - The hard discount business model is viable, with successful practices observed in both domestic and international retail environments. Companies like Aldi and Costco have demonstrated that a simplified SKU approach and operational efficiency can lead to cost reductions and long-term partnerships with suppliers [4][10]. - Domestic hard discount enterprises are in the early stages of development, with significant growth potential. The current retail environment is undergoing a transformation, creating opportunities for hard discount formats to emerge as a key retail model [4][11]. - Investment targets recommended include Wancheng Group and Mingming Hen Mang Group, both of which are expanding their product categories and have strong foundational support in terms of supply chain and market presence [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Hard Discount Leaders - Hard discount is a mature business model internationally, with notable companies like Aldi and Costco leading the market. Aldi has over 13,000 stores globally, while Costco maintains a stable growth trajectory with a revenue increase of over 5% annually [10][11]. - The operational philosophies of these companies emphasize low prices, streamlined operations, and fair treatment of suppliers, which contribute to their success [27][28]. 2. Domestic Hard Discount Enterprises - Lele, as the earliest and largest full-category discount retailer in China, has rapidly expanded its store count to over 8,000 by 2024, achieving annual sales exceeding 50 billion yuan [36][37]. - The business model of Lele incorporates both retail and wholesale elements, allowing it to serve both end consumers and small businesses effectively [42][43]. - The profitability of Lele is driven by reducing distribution layers, achieving a lower markup rate of 2-3%, compared to traditional retail models [47]. 3. Market Opportunities and Challenges - The current retail landscape is reshaping, presenting opportunities for hard discount formats to thrive. However, domestic retailers face challenges due to a more complex and rapidly changing environment compared to their international counterparts [4][11]. - The report highlights that while there are significant opportunities for growth, the domestic market's diversity and the need for talent and operational capabilities present challenges for hard discount retailers [4][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned as the purest player in the hard discount sector, being the second-largest listed company in the bulk snack industry, with strong scale effects and bargaining power, indicating promising growth potential through store expansion and category diversification [1][4]. Industry Trends - The offline retail sector is undergoing significant transformation, with the expansion of bulk snack categories being a necessary choice for industry development. The industry has entered a duopoly competition landscape, making it difficult for new entrants to disrupt the competitive dynamics [2]. - The bulk snack category features high gross margins and impulsive consumer behavior, with average transaction values typically ranging from 20 to 30 yuan, making it challenging to exceed 100 yuan [2]. - The discount retail format currently accounts for only about 4% of the market in China, compared to over 40% in Europe and more than 20% in the U.S., indicating substantial room for growth [2]. Company Strategy - The company plans to expand into categories such as trendy toys, frozen products, baked goods, and marinated foods, which are expected to become important growth directions. The strategy includes enhancing consumer stickiness through a "high-frequency drives low-frequency" approach and addressing management challenges associated with high-frequency categories [2][3]. - The company aims to launch the "Trendy Toy 630 Plan" to broaden its trendy toy product pool and upgrade the display of trendy toy shelves, focusing on high efficiency and differentiated offerings [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 54 billion, 64.3 billion, and 73.4 billion yuan, with net profits of 936 million, 1.292 billion, and 1.602 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 219%, 38%, and 24% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 33 and 24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, suggesting significant potential for market capitalization growth [5]. Investment Recommendations - The company is recognized for its scale, first-mover advantage, and management capabilities, with over 15,000 stores enhancing its bargaining power within the supply chain. As subsidy expenses decrease, there is potential for net profit margin improvement [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is considered the purest player in the hard discount sector and is the only listed company in the bulk snack market, possessing scale, first-mover, and management advantages. The company has over 15,000 stores, strong bargaining power in the supply chain, and potential for improved net profit margins as subsidy costs decrease. Additionally, the bulk snack stores effectively meet the consumption needs of lower-tier markets, allowing for continuous category expansion and significant growth potential [2][3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 540 billion, 643 billion, and 734 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 9.36 billion, 12.92 billion, and 16.02 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 219%, 38%, and 24%. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 33 and 24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating substantial room for market capitalization growth due to the company's rarity and growth potential [3][4]. Category Expansion - The company is transitioning from a "snack+" model to a "discount supermarket" model, driven by the need to address the challenges of scale inefficiency and low-price competition in the retail sector. The bulk snack channel has become a significant player in the snack category, with expectations of revenue exceeding 500 billion yuan by 2025. The industry is moving towards a dual oligopoly competition structure, where leading companies have a competitive edge due to their scale and first-mover advantages [12][13][14]. Consumer Demand and Market Position - The bulk snack channel meets consumer demands for "more, faster, better, and cheaper," with a typical customer price point of 20-30 yuan. The channel's products are priced at 70-80% of those in other channels, making it an attractive option for consumers. The company aims to leverage its scale and bargaining power to capture market share in lower-tier cities [15][16][20]. Store Experience and Product Offering - The company's stores are designed to enhance consumer experience, featuring clear product area divisions and engaging layouts that encourage deeper exploration of the store. The introduction of diverse product categories, including fresh food, baked goods, and toys, aims to create a one-stop shopping experience that meets various consumer needs [63][68][70].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant brand upgrade of Hema NB, transitioning from "Hema NB" to "Chao He Suan NB," which reflects a strategic shift aimed at enhancing brand independence and aligning with consumer demand for high cost-performance products [3][5][18]. Brand Upgrade Surface and Deep Motives - The brand change signifies a move away from the "Hema" identity, addressing the conflict between Hema NB's low-price positioning and Hema Fresh's premium image [5][6]. - Hema NB has evolved into a retail brand with hundreds of stores and over 10 billion in annual sales, necessitating an independent brand identity and supply chain [5][6]. Retail Industry Context - The retail landscape is increasingly competitive, with hard discount formats like Aoleqi and Hitegou gaining traction by appealing to price-sensitive consumers [6]. - Consumer preferences are shifting towards rational and practical purchasing decisions, emphasizing the importance of price and quality [7]. Core Strategic Intentions 1. **Strengthening Brand Positioning**: The upgrade aims to clarify Hema NB's focus on extreme cost-performance, making it more appealing to price-sensitive consumers [8][9]. 2. **Enhancing Brand Recognition**: The new name "Chao He Suan" improves brand memorability and differentiates it from competitors, facilitating consumer understanding of its value proposition [10][11]. 3. **Catering to Lower-tier Market Needs**: The brand aims to resonate with lower-tier market consumers who prioritize cost-performance, enhancing its appeal in these segments [12]. 4. **Facilitating Capital Operations**: Brand independence will simplify future financing and potential spin-off opportunities, avoiding valuation confusion associated with the Hema brand [13]. Development Predictions 1. **Building an Independent Supply Chain**: Hema NB will accelerate the establishment of its own supply chain, moving away from reliance on Hema Fresh [14]. 2. **Expansion Plans**: Hema NB aims to increase its store count to 1,000 by 2025, with over 350 stores already signed [15]. 3. **Redefining Product Strategy**: The focus will shift towards proprietary products, with expectations that private label sales in hard discount stores could exceed 60% [16]. 4. **Integrating Instant Retail**: The brand will deepen its integration with instant retail, leveraging increased private label sales to improve profitability [17]. Conclusion - The brand upgrade of Hema NB is a strategic response to the evolving retail environment and consumer needs, marking a significant shift in the discount retail sector in China. This transformation is expected to establish new standards in the industry, emphasizing a three-in-one channel integration model and a consumer-centric approach [18].

Core Viewpoint - The retail industry is increasingly shifting towards hard discount models, with companies like Zhongbai Group and Wumart actively participating in this trend to meet consumer demands for lower prices and essential goods [1][2][6]. Company Developments - Zhongbai Group has opened its first discount store, Zhongbai Warehouse Wuhan Lidu International Xiaobaihui, focusing on community and family needs with a hard discount and livelihood product model [2][4]. - The store covers over 600 square meters and offers more than 2,000 SKUs, with prices 20% to 30% lower than market rates for essential items [2][3]. - Zhongbai plans to replicate this model, aiming to open five similar stores within the year, emphasizing a strategy of centralized procurement and regional adaptation [3][4]. Industry Trends - The hard discount model is gaining traction among various retailers, including Wumart and Jiajiayue, as they adapt to changing consumer preferences and competitive pressures [6][10]. - The model emphasizes simplified supply chains, low-cost operations, and a focus on high-frequency essential items, with stores typically having fewer than 1,000 SKUs and operating in smaller spaces [6][7]. - The shift towards hard discounting is driven by the need for efficiency in operations and supply chains, as traditional supermarkets face challenges in management complexity and cost control [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - Companies are differentiating themselves through unique strategies, such as Zhongbai's focus on hard discount and essential goods, which helps enhance inventory turnover and capital efficiency [3][6]. - The hard discount sector is expected to grow significantly, with potential market space reaching nearly 700 billion yuan if penetration rates align with global averages [10]. - The competitive environment is characterized by both established players leveraging existing supply chains and new entrants with tailored supply models, each bringing distinct advantages to the hard discount market [10].