Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly oscillate at a low level. The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1212 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1252 yuan/ton, and the main basis was 40 yuan, with a basis increase of 48.15% compared to the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1252 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Supply in Fundamental Analysis - The production profit of soda ash was at a low level in the same period in history. The profit of the combined soda process for heavy soda in East China was 86 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda in North China was - 10.10 yuan/ton [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.76%, and the expected operating rate would stabilize and rebound. The weekly output of soda ash was 70.41 tons, with 38.22 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output had declined from a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual production of 100 tons in 2025 [21]. Demand in Fundamental Analysis - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 107.66% [24]. - In terms of downstream demand, the daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.68 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline to 75.53%, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production had rebounded to 9.87 tons, and the production had stabilized [27][30]. Inventory in Fundamental Analysis - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 162.70 tons, including 83.70 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory was at a historical high in the same period [33]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Fundamental Analysis - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly. The supply at the high level has slightly declined, the terminal demand improvement is limited, the inventory has been continuously declining but is still at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures was 1280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei was 1310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76%; the main basis was 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.67% [5] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei was 1310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11] Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of the heavy soda ash joint - alkali method in East China was 207.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 14.60 yuan/ton. The soda ash production profit was at a low level in the same period of history [14] Soda Ash开工率, Capacity and Output - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.27%, and the operating rate stabilized and rebounded; the weekly output of soda ash was 67.77 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash was 36.90 tons, and the output declined from the historical high [17][19] Soda Ash Industry Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, and the actual production was 60 tons [21] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales rate of soda ash was 98.42%. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.67 tons, the operating rate was 75% and continued to decline, with weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output stabilized [24][27][30] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 171.20 tons, of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 88.33 tons, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period of history [33] Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward, with the main contract SA2509 closing 3.48% lower than the previous week at 1,305 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe also decreased. Supply is expected to decline, but demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average, and inventory is at a historical high. Overall, the soda ash supply is high and demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Weekly View - The main contract SA2509 of soda ash futures closed at 1,305 yuan/ton, down 3.48% from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,325 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous week [2]. - Some enterprises are undergoing maintenance, and production profit has rebounded. The expected output next week is 680,000 tons, with an operating rate of about 80%, showing a downward trend in supply [2]. - Downstream demand from float and photovoltaic glass is average, with rigid demand replenishment and low raw material reserve intention. As of May 8, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7013 million tons, up 1.74% from the previous week, remaining at a historical high [2]. Impact Factors Summary - **Likely to be favorable**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [6]. - **Likely to be unfavorable**: The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, and inventory, although continuously declining, is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7]. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,352 | 1,320 | - 32 | | Current Value | 1,305 | 1,325 | 20 | | Change Rate | - 3.48% | 0.38% | - 162.50% | [9] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,325 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous week [14]. - The profit of the combined soda process for heavy soda ash in East China was 195 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash in North China was - 29.60 yuan/ton, at a low level in the same period [17]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 87.74%, showing a stable recovery. The weekly output was 740,700 tons, including 407,900 tons of heavy soda ash, with output falling from a historical high [20][22]. - The production rate of heavy soda ash was 55.07% [24]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity, with new production capacity planned in each year. In 2023, the newly added capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with 600,000 tons actually put into production [25]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 96.07% [28]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 155,800 tons, and the operating rate of 75.24% continued to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [31]. - The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 91,000 tons, and production stabilized [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7013 million tons, including 872,200 tons of heavy soda ash, at a high level in the same period [37]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current relatively low Treasury bond yields, China's economic recovery trend, and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and for iron ore, they can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - For ferroalloys, consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [22]. - Consider going long on the main contracts of crude oil and fuel oil [25][27]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, and urea requires attention to export changes [28][29][34]. - For PX, PTA, and other chemical products, consider range - bound operations [38][39]. - For ethylene glycol, short - term bottom - oscillating is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, they are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and cautious participation is recommended [42][43]. - For soda ash, short - term disk adjustments may occur, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. - For glass, the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48]. - For pulp, the market is in a weak pattern [51]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. - Consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper, and have a bearish and oscillating view on tin [56][57]. - Nickel is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to decline in price [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [61]. - Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread, and consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [63][65]. - For cotton, sugar, apples, and other agricultural products, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [67][71][74]. - For live pigs, consider waiting and seeing, and for eggs, consider reverse - spread opportunities [77][79]. - For corn and corn starch, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [81]. - For logs, the market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on May 6, with a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in April was 50.7, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic enterprise production and operation activities [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering various factors, it is recommended to remain cautious, and the volatility is expected to increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The market is worried about the decline in corporate profit growth due to tariffs, but domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the increase in the risk of global recession due to tariffs, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][12][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. The futures may continue to decline, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. Consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to OPEC's plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The increase in production may lead to price fluctuations, but factors such as Sino - US talks are favorable for crude oil. Consider going long on the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and fell sharply. The reduction in Singapore's inventory may support the price, and the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Consider going long on the main contract [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost side rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The approach of the summer corn fertilizer preparation period and potential Indian tenders may affect the price. Pay attention to export policy changes [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand is affected by tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is weak, and it is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate. Cautious participation is recommended [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The cost support is insufficient, the supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. In May, device maintenance will be concentrated, which may lead to short - term disk adjustments. The supply is high, and the inventory is stable [44][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the supply is increasing, and the market is in a weak pattern [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. Although the ICSG expects a supply surplus of refined copper, Sino - US talks may boost demand. Consider going long on the main contract [53][55][56]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply shortage may ease with the resumption of mines, and the downstream demand is affected by Sino - US trade. A bearish and oscillating view is taken [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern [58]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures continued to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell. The market is concerned about the May production outlook, and the inventory may increase. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed in the EU has increased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market showed a volatile trend. The planting area in China has increased, and the demand is affected by tariffs. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [66][67][68]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market showed a volatile trend. Brazil is entering the production acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [69][71][72]. Apples - The domestic apple futures showed a sharp rise and then a fall. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the new - year production increase is expected. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs showed a slight decline. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the demand will enter a short - term off - season. Consider waiting and seeing [76][77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide support. Consider reverse - spread opportunities [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures closed flat, and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be in a surplus state, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [80][81]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [82][83][84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly. The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch pattern between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures was 1352 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.86% from the previous value; the basis was - 32 yuan, an increase of 3.23% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of the heavy soda ash combined - soda process in East China was 175.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - soda process in North China was - 62.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash was at a low level in the same period of history [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 89.44%, and the operating rate stabilized and rebounded. The weekly output of soda ash was 75.71 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash was 41.55 tons, and the output declined from a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The planned new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025 (with an actual production of 60 tons) [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 102.69% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.78 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline at 75.85%, with weak demand for soda ash [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output stabilized [30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 167.22 tons, of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 85.71 tons, and the inventory was at a historical high in the same period [33]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E showed that the supply and demand of soda ash fluctuated. In 2024E, the effective production capacity was 3930 tons, the output was 3650 tons, the apparent supply was 3536 tons, the total demand was 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference was 157 tons [34]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period; the cold - repair of float glass, the downstream of heavy soda ash, is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak; the escalation of Sino - US tariff conflicts may drag down the market due to macro - pessimistic sentiment [4].