Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The glass market has a neutral fundamental situation. During the peak season, demand provides weak support at the lower end, while there are positive factors such as macro - news and environmental policies at the upper end. Technically, the bulls are continuous and stable, and the bears are discontinuous, so the glass futures price often has a lower shadow line. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for the 01 contract, paying attention to the support level of 1150 - 1160 [3][4]. - The callback - buying strategy is recommended for glass investment. The main logic is that the glass fundamentals have no obvious changes, the price is affected by coal environmental protection news, the inventory is generally decreasing, the cost of coal - gas production has increased, and the demand from the middle and lower reaches has a short - term replenishment [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - Strategy: Callback buying [3][5]. - Main Logic: Last week, glass futures first rose and then fell. The fundamentals remained unchanged, and the price followed the coking coal futures due to coal environmental protection news. There were no changes in production lines, and the daily melting volume remained the same. The national factory inventory continued to decline, but the inventory in North China increased slightly due to rumors of production suspension in Shahe. The inventory in Hubei continued to decline, and the orders of processing plants in East and South China were good. The cost of coal - gas production increased, and the profit decreased, while the profit of petroleum - coke production increased. The middle and lower reaches had short - term replenishment, and the market sentiment improved. The supply and inventory of soda ash decreased slightly, and it was expected to fluctuate recently considering future capacity expansion [3]. - Outlook: The glass fundamentals are neither good nor bad. In the peak season, demand provides weak support, and there are positive factors such as macro - news and environmental policies. Technically, the bulls are strong, so a long - position strategy for the 01 contract is maintained, with attention to the 1150 - 1160 support level [4]. 02 Market Review: Spot Price Increase - Spot Price: As of September 19, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,140 yuan/ton (+30) in Central China, and 1,230 yuan/ton (+10) in East China. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,216 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan for the week [12]. 03 Market Review: Widening of Monthly Spreads - Soda Ash - Glass Spread: As of September 19, the soda ash futures price was 1,318 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,216 yuan/ton, with a spread of 102 yuan/ton (-8). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 106 yuan/ton (+4). - Contract Spread: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 spread was - 127 yuan/ton (-23) [13][17]. 04 Profit: Increase in Gas Cost - Natural Gas Process: The cost was 1,579 yuan/ton (+1), and the gross profit was - 349 yuan/ton (+9). - Coal - Gas Process: The cost was 1,181 yuan/ton (+22), and the gross profit was - 31 yuan/ton (-22). - Petroleum - Coke Process: The cost was 1,093 yuan/ton (+1), and the gross profit was 47 yuan/ton (+29). - Fuel Prices: On September 19, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 598 yuan/ton [20]. 05 Supply: Unchanged - Daily Melting Volume: Last Friday, the glass daily melting volume was 159,455 tons/day (unchanged), with 225 production lines in operation [22]. - Production Line Changes: There were cold - repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions in some production lines [23][24]. 06 Inventory: Continued Inventory Reduction - National Inventory: As of September 19, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers was 6,090.8 million weight boxes (-67.5). - Regional Inventory: The inventory in North China was 955.5 million weight boxes (+30.9), in Central China was 589 million weight boxes (-33.7), in East China was 1,320.7 million weight boxes (-18.1), in South China was 941.7 million weight boxes (-13.8), in Southwest China was 1,248 million weight boxes (+5.6), the Shahe factory inventory was 278 million weight boxes (+31), and the Hubei factory inventory was 417 million weight boxes (-32) [26]. - Production and Sales Rate: On September 18, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 100% (+4). - LOW - E Glass: On September 19, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (+1). - Order Days: In mid - September, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.5 days (+0.1) [32]. 07 Deep - Processing: Recovery and Maintenance of Production and Sales Rate - The production and sales rate of glass deep - processing recovered and was maintained. The order days and the operating rate of LOW - E glass showed certain trends [32][34]. 08 Demand: Intense Competition in Automobile Prices, Year - on - Year Growth in Production and Sales - Automobile: In August, China's automobile production was 2.815 million units, a month - on - month increase of 224,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 323,000 units. The sales volume was 2.857 million units, a month - on - month increase of 264,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 404,000 units. - New - Energy Automobile: In August, the retail volume of new - energy passenger cars in China was 1.101 million units, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [42]. 09 Demand: Decline in Real Estate Development Investment - Real Estate: In August, China's real estate completion area was 26.5913 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 21%; the new construction area was 45.9487 million m² (-20%); the construction area was 43.7767 million m² (-29%); and the commercial housing sales area was 57.4415 million m² (-11%). - Transaction Area: From September 13 to September 19, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.54 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 2%. - Development Investment: In August, the real estate development investment was 672.942 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20% [48]. 10 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Market Price Increase - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. - Factory Price: The ex - factory prices of some heavy soda ash enterprises had certain changes. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,318 yuan/ton (+28). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of soda ash in Central China for the 09 contract was - 18 yuan/ton (-28) [51][55][56]. 11 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Cost Increase - Profit: As of last Friday, the profit of soda ash was - 71 yuan/ton (-16). - Other Prices: Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,100 yuan/ton (+111), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride in Xuzhou Fengcheng was 310 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Production Cost: The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,320 yuan/ton (+44), with a gross profit of - 37 yuan/ton (unchanged); the cost of the co - production process was 1,739 yuan/ton (+57), with a gross profit of - 71 yuan/ton (-16) [57][58][59]. 12 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Inventory Reduction - Production: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 74.57 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.54 million tons), including 41.77 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons) and 32.8 million tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 million tons). The loss was 12.62 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.53 million tons). - Warehouse Receipts: At the end of last week, the number of soda ash warehouse receipts in the exchange was 0 (a month - on - month decrease of 6916). - Inventory: As of September 19, the national factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7556 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 41,900 tons), including 1.0061 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 28,400 tons) and 749,500 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons) [72]. 13 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Improvement in Apparent Demand - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 446,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 341,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,900 tons. - Production and Sales Rate: Last week, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 105.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.39%. - Glass Factory Inventory: In August, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 23.6 days [75][80].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing slight price adjustments, with overall trading activity remaining low and a cautious sentiment prevailing among downstream buyers [2][5]. Price Analysis - As of August 25, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1240-1350 CNY/ton. In Northeast China, light soda ash is priced at 1330-1410 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1340-1500 CNY/ton [2]. - The soda ash price index for light soda ash on August 25 is 1210, reflecting a decrease of 2.86, or -0.24%, from the previous working day. The heavy soda ash price index remains unchanged at 1255.71 [3]. Futures Market Dynamics - On August 25, the main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1328 CNY/ton and closed at 1337 CNY/ton, showing a daily increase of 1.75%. The highest price during the day was 1354 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 1321 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,386,264 contracts, an increase of 13,664 contracts [5]. - The futures market is showing a warm oscillating pattern, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and rising costs, particularly due to disruptions in coking coal supply [5]. Market Outlook - There are plans for maintenance by some companies this week, which may lead to slight fluctuations in supply. However, demand remains limited, and order releases are cautious. The overall inventory in the industry is still high, prompting manufacturers to adopt flexible order strategies to boost sales [6]. - The market is expected to continue a weak oscillating trend, with close attention needed on inventory changes, maintenance progress, and new order transactions [6].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for soda ash is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 1328.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1354.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.90% [1] - The supply of soda ash is decreasing due to some production facilities operating at reduced capacity, leading to increased inventory pressure [1] - Short-term expectations indicate that soda ash prices will remain volatile, while medium to long-term projections suggest a gradual increase in price levels due to supply-side constraints and market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The float glass industry is maintaining stable operations, with a slight increase in inventory, while downstream demand remains steady, primarily driven by essential needs [2] - Recent data shows a week-on-week increase in soda ash production by 10,100 tons, mainly from the light soda segment, which is significantly higher than historical levels [2] - The overall market sentiment indicates a continued trend of inventory accumulation, with a week-on-week increase of 17,000 tons, although the pace of accumulation is slowing down [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, terminal demand is weakening, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,326 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 106 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][36]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is coming, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry production at a historical high in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash is weakening; the positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,306 yuan/ton | 1,205 yuan/ton | - 101 yuan | | Current Value | 1,326 yuan/ton | 1,220 yuan/ton | - 106 yuan | | Change Rate | 1.53% | 1.24% | 4.95% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method is - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 88.48%, and the seasonal decline of the operating rate is delayed [18]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 771,400 tons, including 425,200 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historical high [20]. 3.5 New Production Capacity of Soda Ash - In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 97.80% [24]. - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [27]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [33]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the data of effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E [37].

Market Overview - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with slight price adjustments in some regions for heavy soda ash [2] - As of August 20, 2023, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1240-1370 CNY/ton [2] Price Index Analysis - On August 20, the light soda ash price index stood at 1217.14, unchanged from the previous working day, while the heavy soda ash price index decreased by 8.57 to 1257.14, reflecting a decline of 0.68% [3] Futures Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1358 CNY/ton and closed at 1309 CNY/ton on August 20, marking a daily decline of 5.01% [5] - The market is under pressure due to high supply and accumulating inventory, with concerns over demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry [5] Future Market Predictions - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, with increasing industry inventory [6] - Key factors to monitor include the resumption of production facilities, downstream replenishment activities, and fluctuations in futures market sentiment [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, with the short - term expected to be mainly in a volatile operation [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and inventory at a high level in the same period [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: With few alkali plant overhauls, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,395 yuan/ton, the basis is - 115 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions increase, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash feature strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish factors: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry production at a historical high in the same period; heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass production has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash; the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1,400 yuan/ton to 1,395 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36%; the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1,280 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from - 120 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.17% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 5. Fundamentals - Supply - Soda ash production profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by North China ammonia - soda method is - 25.60 yuan/ton, and that by East China co - production method is - 41 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - Soda ash operating rate and production capacity: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally; the weekly production of soda ash is 761,300 tons, including 429,700 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19]. - Soda ash industry production capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with the actual production of 1 million tons [20]. 6. Fundamentals - Demand - Soda ash sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.73% [23]. - Soda ash downstream demand: The national float glass daily melting volume is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34%; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, and under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 7. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 8. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate over the years [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term outlook is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillatory movement. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, terminal demand has weakened, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historical high, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,400 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 120 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, showing a bearish situation [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a bullish situation [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [2]. 3.2 Influence Factor Summary - **Likely Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high for the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,400 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 120 yuan. Compared with the previous value, the closing price of the main contract increased by 1.23%, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe increased by 1.59%, and the main basis decreased by 2.44% [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process for heavy - quality soda ash is - 23.80 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China combined - soda process is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.41%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the production volume is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Industry Production Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19%. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has dropped significantly [28][31]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective production capacity, production volume, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, production volume growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash over the years [35].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market continues to show weakness, with prices under pressure and a lack of significant demand growth [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of August 11, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1270-1370 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index is reported at 1230, down 17.14 from the previous working day, a decrease of 1.37%, while the heavy soda ash price index remains stable at 1277.14 [3]. Market Dynamics - The overall operation of soda ash facilities is stable, maintaining high supply levels, but new order signing is slow, leading to a lackluster market atmosphere [2]. - Downstream purchasing remains focused on essential replenishment, with no significant increase in overall demand, resulting in a cautious market sentiment [2]. Futures Market - On August 11, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 opened at 1326 CNY/ton and closed at 1345 CNY/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.67% [5]. - The futures market is experiencing slight upward fluctuations, driven by rising coal prices and improved trading sentiment in the chemical sector, although the fundamental industry conditions have not shown substantial improvement [5]. Future Outlook - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high due to the resumption of maintenance operations, while downstream demand is weak, leading to insufficient market drivers [6]. - The soda ash market is anticipated to consolidate within a narrow range in the short term, with close attention needed on future facility dynamics and changes in downstream purchasing patterns [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. With the fading of policy - driven positive sentiment, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains at a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, and terminal demand is weak. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - duty soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,345 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 110 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - demand imbalance in the soda ash market and the fading of policy - driven positive sentiment, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - duty soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract has increased from 1,332 yuan/ton to 1,345 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.98%. The low - end price of heavy - duty soda ash in Shahe remains unchanged at 1,235 yuan/ton. The main basis has changed from - 97 yuan to - 110 yuan, a change of 13.40% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end market price of heavy - duty soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - duty soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 23.80 yuan/ton, and that of the co - production process in East China is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.41%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy - duty soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [21]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19%. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [28][31]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a weak performance, with prices showing little change across various regions, and a cautious sentiment prevailing among downstream buyers [2][3]. Price Summary - As of August 1, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1270-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1270-1370 CNY/ton. In South China, light soda ash is priced at 1390-1470 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1360-1430 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on August 1 is 1275.71, down 4.29 from the previous working day, a decrease of 0.33%. The heavy soda ash price index is 1294.29, down 8.57, a decrease of 0.66% [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side remains stable, with Inner Mongolia Salt Industry planning maintenance on August 5, while Shilian Chemical and Huainan Debang plan to resume production in early August [2]. - Demand continues to be weak, with downstream companies showing reduced purchasing willingness and adopting conservative procurement strategies [2]. Futures Market Dynamics - On August 1, the main soda ash futures contract SA2509 opened at 1248 CNY/ton and closed at 1256 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.02%. The total open interest is 921,926 contracts, down by 52,098 contracts [5]. - The futures market is under pressure due to overall weak sentiment in the chemical sector, despite some support from inventory reduction [5]. Market Outlook - In the coming week, as previously maintained facilities gradually resume operations, supply is expected to increase. However, the cautious purchasing attitude from downstream buyers may limit acceptance of high-priced products [6]. - The market sentiment is shifting from a strong expectation at the beginning of the week to a more cautious outlook, with prices likely to remain volatile and subject to flexible adjustments [6].