| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/6/13 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/12 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/11 | | | | | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/11 | | 2025/6/12 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1121.0 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | -8.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 963.0 | 998.0 | 981.0 | 18.0 | -17.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1096.0 | 1100.0 | 1096.0 | 0.0 | -4.0 | FG01合约 | 1018.0 | 1056.0 | 1040.0 | 22.0 | -16.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1 ...

玻璃六月报 淡季供增需减 盘面依旧看弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/6/3 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 投资策略：反弹做空 主要逻辑 行情回顾：五月玻璃盘面继续保持流畅的下跌趋势。五月末盘面小幅反弹，一方面是因为纯碱供应过剩，碱玻价差合适， 主流资金进行多玻璃空纯碱的套利操作。另一方面则是受到湖北产线冷修传言的影响，这两方面给予了玻璃做空的空间。后续 大线点火复产和淡季库存回升，导致主力合约跌破1000。供给方面，五月份冷修2条，点火复产3条，日熔量底部抬升。全国 库存维持高位运行，华北华中以价换量效果一般，月末沙河湖北厂库环比增加，厂家库压力较大。主销区受外围降价和天气影 响，市场观望情绪增加，中下游提货速度放缓。煤炭价格持续走弱，华北煤制气工艺利润维持。需求方面，中下游按需采购， 现货降价比较下对原片采购趋谨慎。纯碱方面，前期检修装置复产，供应回升至高位，结合下半年投产计划，市场对远期悲观 预期较浓，同样弱势看待。 后市展望：六月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation. The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session was 1253 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1300 yuan/ton, and the main basis was 47 yuan, with a 38.24% increase compared to the previous value. The closing price of the main contract decreased by 2.57%, and the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 1.52% [5]. Factors Affecting Soda Ash Positive Factors - The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash. The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations has been made [4]. Negative Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of heavy - soda downstream float glass is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [11]. Soda Ash Production - The weekly production profit of heavy soda ash using the joint - alkali method in East China was 188 yuan/ton, and the profit using the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 14.60 yuan/ton, which is at a historical low in the same period [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 78.63%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly output of soda ash was 67.38 tons, with heavy soda ash at 36 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been continuous production - launch plans for soda ash. In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity was 750 tons, with an actual production - launch of 60 tons [22]. Soda Ash Demand - The weekly production heavy - soda ratio of soda ash was 54.23% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.67 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline to 75.34%, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. Soda Ash Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 167.68 tons, of which heavy soda ash was 84.40 tons, and the inventory was at a historical high in the same period [33]. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of soda ash has fluctuated. In 2024E, the effective production capacity was 3930 tons, the output was 3650 tons, the operating rate was 78.20%, the net import was - 114 tons, the apparent supply was 3536 tons, the total demand was 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference was 157 tons [34].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂陆续公布检修计划，供给高位小幅下滑；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1320元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1288元/吨，基差为32元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存171.20万吨，较前一周增加0.63%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 一、纯碱期货行情 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂陆续公布检修计划，供给高位小幅下滑；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1320元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1289元/吨，基差为31元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存171.20万吨，较前一周增加0.63%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-19 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 2、中美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Category Glass - **Price Changes**: From April 30 to May 7, prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan decreased by 22.0, from 1220.0 to 1198.0; that of Shahe Great Wall decreased by 13.0, from 1207.0 to 1194.0; and the lowest price of 5mm large - plate glass in Hubei decreased by 30.0, from 1140.0 to 1110.0 [1]. - **Contract Prices**: The FG09 contract price decreased by 8.0 from 1082.0 to 1074.0, and the FG01 contract price decreased by 16.0 from 1131.0 to 1115.0 [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased by 1.4 (from 265.7 to 264.3), and the cost decreased by 3.6 (from 907.3 to 903.7). The profit of South China natural - gas glass remained unchanged at - 134.3, while the profit of North China natural - gas glass decreased by 5.0 (from - 203.2 to - 210.3) [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shahe traders' glass price was around 1168, and the one - price offer for spot - futures was 1180 with weak transactions. The lowest price of factories in Hubei was around 1110. The sales - production ratios were 102 in Shahe, 82 in Hubei, 105 in East China, and 115 in South China [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From April 30 to May 7, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 10.0 (from 1340.0 to 1330.0), and that in Central China decreased by 20.0 and then increased by 10.0, finally reaching 1300.0. The price of light soda ash in North China and Central China decreased by 30.0 and then another 10.0, reaching 1220.0 [1]. - **Contract Prices**: The SA05 contract price increased by 4.0 (from 1292.0 to 1296.0), the SA01 contract price decreased by 42.0 (from 1369.0 to 1327.0), and the SA09 contract price decreased by 29.0 (from 1352.0 to 1323.0) [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda process increased by 6.4 (from - 122.1 to - 107.0), and the cost decreased by 6.4 (from 1413.4 to 1407.0). The profit of North China combined - soda process decreased by 22.2 (from 40.5 to 18.3) [1]. - **Spot and Industry**: The spot price of heavy soda ash at Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1300, that at Shahe warehouses was around 1330, and the terminal delivery price was around 1350 - 1380. There are many maintenance expectations in May [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a volatile and weak manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The supply of soda ash increases as maintenance resumes and the operating rate rebounds, while the terminal demand is average. The factory inventory of soda ash declines but remains at a historical high. The basis indicates futures premium over spot, the price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Overall, it is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term [2]. Influence Factors Summary - **Likely Factors**: The increase in the production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass boosts the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historical high. The cold - repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda is at a high level, and the daily melting volume continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and the inventory, although continuously declining, is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures decreased by 1.63% to 1330 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda in Shahe decreased by 0.76% to 1310 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased by 37.50% to - 20 yuan [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda in Hebei Shahe is 1310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of the combined - alkali method for heavy soda in East China is 175.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method for heavy soda in North China is - 62.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 89.44% and is stabilizing and rebounding. The weekly output is 75.71 tons, with heavy soda ash at 41.55 tons, and the output is falling from a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in the new production capacity of soda ash. In 2023, the new capacity was 640 tons, in 2024 it was 180 tons, and the planned new capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with 60 tons actually put into production [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 102.69% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.78 tons, and the operating rate of 75.85% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass is stabilizing, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 167.22 tons, including 85.71 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [33]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates of various indicators [34].

玻璃：传统旺季结束 盘面继续下跌 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/4/28 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 01 投资策略：继续下跌 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货小幅反弹后回落，整体下跌趋势仍未改变。供给方面，上周一条产线复产点火，两条产线停产冷 修，日熔量小幅波动。全国厂家库存小幅增加，华北华中库存延续前期拐头向上增长，同比来看华北高于去年，华中维持在同 期高位水平。主销区华东华南整体产销维持相对平稳水平，累库程度不大。煤炭价格继续走弱，煤制气工艺利润得到进一步改 善。需求方面，局部大型加工厂订单稍有好转，深加工订单天数增加明显，但工程订单情况仍然较差，订单天数不及往年。受 制造业优惠政策影响，小板市场成交好于大板。纯碱方面，市场消息多为检修意向，有明确计划的不多，短期内存在产量减少 预期。但结合库存水平和氨碱产能来看，向上反弹空间有限。 后市展望：沙河煤气切改计划属于利空事件。金三银四整体需求成色不佳，传统旺季即将结束，基本面缺乏推涨动力。此 ...