日本央行会议意见摘要：一位成员表示，经济前景存在不确定性，通胀预期较高，达到通胀目标的可能 性不如以往。 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment has relaxed compared to before, but there are still many uncertainties in tariffs and concerns about the economic outlook. The supply side of the fundamentals is stable, and the orders of aluminum - processing enterprises after the holiday still show resilience, creating an expected difference from before the holiday. As the peak consumption season is approaching, the expectation of weakening consumption is strong. It is necessary to continue to monitor inventory performance, and it is expected that the upward pressure on aluminum prices will gradually increase [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 months increased from 2391.5 yuan/ton on April 30, 2025, to 2418 yuan/ton on May 9, 2025, up 26.5 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum continuous - three price decreased from 19830 dollars/ton to 19445 dollars/ton, down 385 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio dropped from 8.3 to 8.0, a decrease of 0.3. The LME spot premium rose from - 27.81 dollars/ton to - 9.4 dollars/ton, an increase of 18.4 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased from 415575 tons to 403550 tons, a decrease of 12025 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 72590 tons to 65013 tons, a decrease of 7577 tons. The spot Yangtze River average price decreased from 20006.66667 yuan/ton to 19665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 341.7 yuan/ton. The spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The South China Storage spot average price decreased from 19936.66667 yuan/ton to 19620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 316.7 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased from 70 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased from 61.4 tons to 62 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased from 16365.01 yuan/ton to 16276.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.5 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased from 3641.66 yuan/ton to 3388.49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 253.2 yuan/ton [3] 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot in the spot market was 19948 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton compared to last week; the weekly average price of South China Storage spot was 19904 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton compared to last week. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. Traders still expect three interest rate cuts this year. The UK and the US reached a partial agreement on tariff trade terms. Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, from May 10th to 11th. The EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros worth of US goods. The domestic central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan". The domestic downstream aluminum - processing industry's operating rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9% compared to last week, with different performances among sectors. Primary aluminum alloy, industrial profiles, and cables performed well, while other sectors were weak. According to the current order situation, the operating rate of aluminum - processing enterprises is expected to remain stable next week [4] 3. Market Outlook - The macro - environment has relaxed compared to before, but there are still many uncertainties in tariffs and concerns about the economic outlook. The supply side of the fundamentals is stable, and the orders of aluminum - processing enterprises after the holiday still show resilience, creating an expected difference from before the holiday. As the peak consumption season is approaching, the expectation of weakening consumption is strong. It is necessary to continue to monitor inventory performance, and it is expected that the upward pressure on aluminum prices will gradually increase [7] 4. Industry News - The US vice - president said that negotiations with the EU are ongoing, hoping for the opening of the European market to US goods. The EU trade commissioner said that if the negotiations fail, the EU will announce details of the next counter - measures against US tariffs on Thursday. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association said that although copper, aluminum, and gold are on the exemption list, the US has imposed an additional 20% tariff on all imported products from China this year, raising the "301" and "232" tariffs on aluminum products from 10% to 25% and initiating a "232" investigation on copper. Since the Sino - US trade frictions in 2018 - 2019, China's exports of non - ferrous metal products to the US have dropped significantly. Alcoa's San Ciprián plant was affected by a large - scale power outage in Spain, and the company is assessing the full extent of the operational and financial impacts [8] 5. Relevant Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum current - month to continuous - one spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium of material trade, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][15]

美元兑日元和欧元等主要货币周三保持小幅走强，此前美联储一如市场预期维持利率不变。美联储将指 标利率稳定在4.25%-4.50%的区间，但表示通胀和失业率上升的风险已经加剧，美国经济前景仍不明 朗。美元兑日元上涨1%，报143.840日元，打破了连续三天的跌势，日本市场在两天假期后重新开市。 美联储维持利率不变 美联储在周三的会议上维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%-4.50%，称经济前景不确定性进一步增加， 委员会判断失业率和通胀上升的风险已经加剧。美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上表示，在经济 走向明朗之前，美联储不能做出先发制人的政策决定。 欧元兑美元 美元兑主要货币的表现 美元兑日元 美元兑日元上涨1%，报143.840日元，打破了连续三天的跌势。日本市场在两天假期后重新开市，投资 者对美元的需求增加，推动了美元兑日元的上涨。 美元兑瑞郎 美元兑瑞郎在震荡交投中上涨了0.09%，报0.82210瑞郎。周一，美元兑瑞郎触及2015年1月以来的最低 点0.8032。这一上涨反映了市场对美元的短期信心增强。 MultiBank大通金融分析美元周三小幅走强，主要得益于美联储维持利率不变的决定以及市场对经济前 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold has slightly rebounded, currently trading around $3375.58 per ounce after a nearly 2% drop on Wednesday, falling below the $3400 mark [1] - The lowest price during the session was $3360.18 per ounce, with a closing price of $3364.32 per ounce, influenced by optimistic sentiments regarding international trade negotiations [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, but Chairman Powell's remarks were more hawkish than market expectations, leading to the largest single-day increase in the dollar index in nearly two weeks, which pressured gold prices [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects increasing risks of rising inflation and unemployment, amid uncertainties regarding the impact of Trump's tariff policies [3] - Powell indicated that the economic outlook remains unclear, with uncertainty surrounding the potential effects of Trump's policy agenda, which complicates the Fed's monetary policy response [3] - The FOMC unanimously agreed to maintain the target range for the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% [3] Group 3 - The market's initial reaction to the Fed's statement was muted, as there are concerns about rising inflation and unemployment risks, although there is still buying support for gold [4] - Official data shows that the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the sixth consecutive month in April, boosting bullish sentiment for gold [4] - Bank of America forecasts limited short-term upside for gold prices but expects them to rise again in the second half of 2025, potentially reaching $4000 [4]

美国联邦储备委员会（FRB，美联储）在5月7日召开的美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上决定 维持政策利率不变。为了观察美国特朗普政府的高关税政策对经济和物价带来的影响，美联储已连续3 次会议决定暂缓降息。 虽然市场和消费者的信心恶化，但反映实际就业和消费动向的被称为"硬数据"的美国的经济指标依然稳 健。4月的就业统计数据显示，非农部门就业人数环比增加17.7万人。1～3月，个人消费环比折年率增 长1.8％。 FOMC也在声明中就当前的美国经济维持了"以稳健速度持续扩大"的观点。 作为美国政策利率指标的联邦基金（FF）利率的引导目标仍维持在4.25％～4.5％。美联储在2024年9月 ～12月累计降息1个百分点后，2025年以来一直维持利率不变。 上次于3月召开会议以后，美国政府于4月2日公布大规模对等关税政策，导致市场对美国经济放缓的担 忧迅速增强。此次的声明强调："经济前景的不确定性进一步增加"。同时指出，失业率和通胀率的上升 风险加大。 虽然美国总统特朗普不断施压，要求通过降息来支撑经济，但美联储主席鲍威尔在会议后召开的记者会 上仍保持观望姿态不变，称"目前的货币政策立场处于能够及时应对潜在经济变化 ...

摘要今日周四（5月7日）亚盘时段，黄金T+D短线维持上涨走势，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报803.29元/ 克，上涨0.76%，最高触及805.50元/克，最低下探796.00元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看涨。 今日周四（5月7日）亚盘时段，黄金t+d短线维持上涨走势，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报803.29元/克，上涨 0.76%，最高触及805.50元/克，最低下探796.00元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看涨。 鲍威尔用这种微妙的方式表示，在特朗普的全面政策议程全面生效之前，美联储这个塑造经济的关键角 色实际上处于观望。 FOMC在为期两天的会议结束时表示："经济前景的不确定性进一步增加。"在这次会议上，决策者们一 致同意将指标利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.50%不变。 声明显示："委员会关注其双重使命面临的风险，并认为失业率和通胀上升的风险增加。" 【要闻速递】 富瑞(Jefferies)首席美国经济学家Thomas Simons说，这一措辞低调表明自美联储3月18-19日会议以来发 生了多少混乱，以及前景变得多么难以预测。 美联储周三维持利率不变，但指出通胀和失业率上升的风险增加，在联储努 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent statement indicates concerns over the economic outlook, highlighting stable unemployment but persistent inflation and increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation [1] Economic Conditions - The unemployment rate in the U.S. has remained stable at low levels in recent months, reflecting a solid labor market [1] - Inflation is still considered to be "high" to some extent, which poses challenges for economic stability [1] Risks and Uncertainties - The Federal Reserve acknowledges that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has "increased further" [1] - There is a noted increase in the risks of rising unemployment and worsening inflation, which was not mentioned in previous statements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of federal layoffs on the U.S. job market and economy, highlighting concerns about rising unemployment and the ripple effects on various sectors. Group 1: Federal Employee Overview - As of January 2025, there are 2.42 million federal employees (excluding the U.S. Postal Service), accounting for 1.5% of total employment [2] - The majority of federal employees are concentrated in 11 departments, with the Department of Veterans Affairs having the highest number at 483,000, followed by the Department of Homeland Security, Army, and Navy [2] - Federal employees are geographically dispersed, with only 19.6% working in Washington D.C. and surrounding areas; significant numbers are also in California and Texas [3] - The workforce is predominantly older, with 82% over 35 years old and 54% between 40-59 years old; 92% of employees are in white-collar jobs [4] - A high percentage of federal employees work remotely, with 54% on-site, 10% fully remote, and 36% in a hybrid model [5] Group 2: Impact of Federal Layoffs on Employment - The direct impact of federal layoffs on overall employment is manageable, as federal employees represent only 1.5% of non-farm employment; layoffs could raise the unemployment rate by 0.1% for every 170,000 employees who cannot find new jobs [6] - The layoffs may lead to reductions in state and local government employment, as well as affect private sector jobs, particularly in education and healthcare [6] - The timing of the impact may not be immediate, with significant effects expected from the second quarter of the year onward due to the "buyout" program allowing employees to leave while still receiving salaries until September [7] Group 3: Economic Consequences of Layoffs - Historical precedents show mixed results from federal layoffs; for instance, President Clinton's 1993 cuts aimed at efficiency led to operational challenges and reduced efficiency [8] - Layoffs could negatively affect consumer sentiment and the efficiency of social services, contributing to greater economic uncertainty [8]