1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, precious metals fluctuated steadily, and the market was calm ahead of the FOMC meeting. In the short term, the market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. After the decision is announced, there may be some downward pressure, but the adjustment range is likely to be limited. The precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend with fluctuations within the month. In the long run, the narrative of the shrinking US dollar credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals [1][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market - **Price Logic**: The expectation of loose liquidity remains the core driver at the quarterly level. The probability of the relatively dovish candidate Hasset being nominated as the Fed Chair is increasing. The period from nomination to taking office may be the most favorable time for trading the expectation of loose liquidity and the risk of the Fed's independence. Also, the leading effect of silver is supporting the gold price, and the squeeze - trading is spreading from silver to copper, which may remain a hot trading topic this month. In the long run, the US monetary expansion and the global fiscal expansion are expected to drive the economic cycle towards a mild recovery, and silver may have greater elasticity. The price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [4000, 4400], and that of London silver in the range of [53, 60] this week [3] - **Index Performance**: On December 8, 2025, the precious metals index had a daily decline of 0.13%, a 5 - day increase of 0.66%, a 1 - month increase of 6.42%, and a year - to - date increase of 59.17% [45] 3.2 Key News - **Japan's Economy**: Japan's real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate in Q3 was revised down to - 2.3% (expected - 2%, initial - 1.8%), and the quarterly growth rate was revised down to - 0.6% (expected - 0.5%, initial - 0.4%), indicating the first economic contraction in six quarters. The Japanese government submitted a supplementary budget for 2025 to the temporary parliament. Under the "responsible and active fiscal" policy, the general accounting expenditure reached 18.3034 trillion yen, a post - COVID high. More than 60% of the fiscal revenue will be filled by issuing additional national bonds [2] - **US Economy**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the US GDP growth rate will reach 3% this year, and the inflation rate is expected to drop significantly next year. The bond market will have its best performance since 2020 [2] 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: On December 8, 2025, the commodity index was 2267.05, down 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, down 0.37%; the industrial products index was 2216.09, down 0.16% [43]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, gold oscillates, and silver adjusts at a high level. The short - term fluctuations of precious metals are mainly affected by the silver capital side. In the long - term, the narrative of the contraction of the US dollar credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals [3][5]. - The logical environment is generally favorable for the rise of precious metals this month. The expectation of loose liquidity is the core driver, and the nomination of the Fed Chairman is the key concern. The squeeze trading in silver may still be repeated this month [5]. - Looking ahead, the range of spot gold in London this week is expected to be between $4000 and $4400 per ounce, and that of spot silver in London is expected to be between $53 and $60 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - US initial jobless claims last week were 191,000, with an expected 220,000. The four - week average was 214,750. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were 1.939 million, with an expected 1.961 million. The current application level is consistent with historically low lay - offs, which may ease market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labor market [4]. - The number of Challenger corporate lay - offs in the US in November was 71,321, a 53.4% decrease from the previous value. Year - on - year, it increased by 23.5% [4]. - The Chicago Fed expects the US unemployment rate in November to remain stable at around 4.4% [4]. 3.2 Price Logic - On Thursday, gold oscillated, and silver adjusted at a high level. Attention should be paid to the support at the previously broken level of $53 - $54. The US weekly initial and continuing jobless claims announced on the day conformed to seasonal patterns and had a low impact on the market [3][5]. - This month, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driver, and the nomination of the Fed Chairman is the key concern. The relatively dovish candidate Hassett has the highest popularity. The period from nomination to taking office may be the smoothest time for trading on the expectation of loose liquidity and the independence of the Fed [5]. - The spot lease rate of London silver remains at a relatively high level, and the squeeze trading is spreading from London to Asia and the US, which may still be repeated this month [5]. 3.3 Market Indexes - **Commodity Indexes**: The comprehensive index shows that the commodity index is 2272.72 (+0.11%), the commodity 20 index is 2593.02 (+0.20%), and the industrial products index is 2228.63 (+0.41%) [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On December 4, 2025, the precious metals index was 3485.92, with a daily decline of 0.59%, a 5 - day increase of 1.61%, a 1 - month increase of 7.61%, and a year - to - date increase of 57.56% [46]. - **PPI Commodity Index**: The PPI commodity index is 1371.00 (+0.78%) [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, precious metals maintained a volatile and upward trend, with significant high - level fluctuations in silver. The unexpectedly weak ADP employment in the US increased the probability of a December interest rate cut, and the expectation of loose liquidity still dominated the market. The overall logical environment is conducive to the rise of precious metals this month, and in the long - term, the decline of the US dollar credit will drive the upward trend of precious metals. [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Key Information - The cooling of the US labor market exceeded expectations. The ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is nearly 90%. [2] - The US import and export price indices in September were flat month - on - month, with the import price index rising 0.3% year - on - year and the export price index rising 3.8% year - on - year. [2] - US President Trump mentioned that Kevin Hassett is a potential Fed chairman. [2] - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that the US economy will achieve "real wage growth" and "low - inflation growth" and return to 4% growth in 2026. [2] Price Logic - Short - term: Precious metals were volatile and upward on Wednesday, with large fluctuations in silver. The unexpectedly weak ADP employment increased the probability of a December interest rate cut, and the loose liquidity expectation dominated the market. [1][3] - Medium - term: This month, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driving force. With the approaching Fed chairman nomination, the relatively dovish Hassett has the highest popularity, and the period from nomination to taking office may see the smoothest trading of loose liquidity expectations and Fed independence. The spot - end driving force for silver remains, and the squeeze - out trading is spreading. [3] - Long - term: The long - term upward trend of precious metals is driven by the contraction of the US dollar credit. The expansion of the US currency and the global fiscal expansion may lead to a mild economic recovery, and silver may have greater elasticity. [3] Outlook - This week, the range of the London gold spot is expected to be between $4,000 and $4,400 per ounce, and the range of the London silver spot is expected to be between $53 and $60 per ounce. [3] Commodity Index - On December 3, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2270.14, down 0.22%; the commodity 20 index was 2587.91, down 0.13%; the industrial product index was 2219.45, down 0.41%. [43] - The precious metal index on December 3, 2025, was 3506.69, with a daily increase of 0.24%, a 5 - day increase of 4.03%, a 1 - month increase of 9.15%, and a year - to - date increase of 58.50%. [45]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to fluctuate on December 2, with COMEX gold futures dropping to $4,194 before a slight recovery, resulting in a daily fluctuation of over $70. The closing price was $4,238.70 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.84% [1] - Recent data indicates a gradual cooling of the U.S. economy, coupled with dovish signals from Fed officials, which has increased market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, with traders pricing in a 89% probability of a rate cut [1] - Analysts noted that the midday drop in gold prices was due to profit-taking by investors following a recent strong rally [1] Group 2 - According to Chaos Tiancheng Futures analysis, the outlook for gold prices in 2025 is based on the logic of U.S. dollar credit contraction, alongside the onset of a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to weaken the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, creating a smoother upward trend [1] - The overall trading direction for next year is expected to be significantly influenced by macroeconomic changes, suggesting that while the current narrative remains intact, the market has not yet reached the end of a bull market and still holds allocation value, though caution is advised regarding potential shifts in high-level macro narratives [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continued to fluctuate on December 2, influenced by profit-taking, with COMEX gold futures dropping to $4,194 before slightly recovering, closing down 0.84% at $4,238.70 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures experienced a significant intraday volatility of over $70, closing at $4,238.70 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) fell by 0.48%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 1.24% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates a gradual cooling of the U.S. economy, coupled with dovish signals from Fed officials, which has heightened market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting [1] - Traders are currently pricing in a 89% probability of a rate cut [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysis from Chaos Tiancheng Futures suggests that gold prices are expected to trend upward due to a contraction in dollar credit and the onset of a rate-cutting cycle, alongside weakening expectations for the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The overall trading direction for next year is anticipated to be significantly influenced by macroeconomic changes, with the current narrative indicating that the bull market has not yet reached its end, maintaining investment value despite the need for caution regarding potential shifts in high-level macro narratives [1]

中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-3 宽松预期持续利好，⽩银⾼位波动加⼤ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 重点资讯： 1）据有"新美联储通讯社"之称的《华尔街日报》记者Nick Timira os报道，尽管美联储主席候选人面试仍在进行中，但特朗普总统似乎 已倾向于选择长期顾问哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）担任这一职位。此 次任命可能成为特朗普第二任期最重要的人事决策。 据知情人士透 露，哈塞特已向白宫和其他政府官员表示希望获得这一职位，并认为 自己是最佳候选人。 2）美国11月ISM制造业PMI指数下降0.5点至48.2，连续九个月低于 50的荣枯线，创下四个月来的最大萎缩。新订单指数降至自7月以来 最快的收缩速度，积压订单则创七个月最大降幅。 3）欧元区11月CPI初值同比升2.2%，预期升2.1%，10月终值升2.1%； 环比降0.3%，预期降0.3%，10月终值升0.2%。欧元区11月核心CPI初 值同比升2.4%，预期升2.5%，10月终值升2.4%；环比降0.4%，10月终 值升0.2%。欧元区10月失业率为6.4%，预期6.3%，前值从6.3%修正为 6.4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of gold ETFs indicates a rising demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in U.S. fiscal policy, with gold prices showing signs of recovery after a period of decline [4][5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Performance - As of October 24, 2025, the gold ETF (159937) increased by 0.13%, reaching a price of 8.99 yuan, with a cumulative rise of 3.09% over the past two weeks [3]. - The trading volume for the gold ETF was 5.89 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.48%. The average daily trading volume over the past week was 32.88 billion yuan, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [4]. - The total shares of the gold ETF reached 4.413 billion, marking a one-year high [5]. Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion stemming from strained U.S.-Russia relations and uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policies, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.91% to $4,143.2 per ounce [4]. - Recent sanctions against Russia by the EU and the U.S. have contributed to the supportive sentiment for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Huatai Securities suggests that short-term declines in gold prices do not alter the long-term investment logic for gold, viewing recent pullbacks as opportunities for accumulation [5]. - The market consensus on the long-term value of gold-related assets remains intact, with expectations for many gold companies to achieve both volume and price increases by 2026 [5]. - Over the past 14 days, the gold ETF has seen continuous net inflows, totaling 7.355 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 1.449 billion yuan [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rebound in gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand stemming from heightened tensions in US-Russia relations and uncertainties in US fiscal policy [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - As of the market close, COMEX gold futures rose by 1.91% to $4143.2 per ounce, while the gold ETF Huaxia fell by 1.19% and gold stock ETFs decreased by 0.28% [1] - The postponement of a US-Russia meeting by Trump and the EU's formal approval of the 19th round of sanctions against Russia have contributed to the support of safe-haven sentiment [1] Group 2: Analysis and Forecast - According to CITIC Futures, after a gradual slowdown in the decline, precious metal prices experienced a slight rebound, with the US government shutdown continuing and overseas data remaining sparse [1] - The short-term bottom for precious metals may be confirmed, with expectations of entering a phase of oscillation and adjustment [1] - Key focus areas for the month include the performance of the US-China meeting around the APEC conference and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical conflicts in the fourth quarter [1] - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals remains intact, with the contraction of US dollar credit being a core foundation, leading to an ongoing increase in the value of physical currency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rebound in gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand stemming from heightened tensions in US-Russia relations and uncertainties in US fiscal policy [1] Market Performance - As of the close, COMEX gold futures rose by 1.91% to $4143.2 per ounce, while the gold ETF Huaxia fell by 1.19% and gold stock ETFs decreased by 0.28% [1] Geopolitical Factors - The postponement of a US-Russia meeting by Trump and the EU's formal approval of the 19th round of sanctions against Russia have contributed to the support of safe-haven sentiment [1] - The US Treasury Secretary announced sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, further influencing market dynamics [1] Market Analysis - According to CITIC Futures, after a gradual slowdown in the decline, precious metal prices experienced a slight rebound, with the US government shutdown continuing and overseas markets remaining in a data vacuum [1] - The short-term bottom for precious metals may be confirmed, with expectations of entering a phase of oscillation and adjustment [1] Future Outlook - Attention is drawn to the upcoming APEC meeting and the potential for US-China discussions, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical conflicts in the fourth quarter [1] - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals remains intact, with the contraction of US dollar credit being a core foundation, leading to an ongoing increase in the value of physical currency [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term bottom of precious metals may be confirmed, and they are expected to enter a shock adjustment phase. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals has not reversed, and the long - term price center of gold and silver is expected to rise [1][3]. - The price of precious metals rebounded slightly on Thursday after the decline gradually slowed down. The U.S. government shutdown continued, overseas was still in a data vacuum period, and the U.S. stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets were calm [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - U.S. President Trump will make a statement in Washington at 3 p.m. local time and will visit Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan next week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will accompany Trump to Japan and then attend the APEC meeting in South Korea [2]. - During the federal government shutdown, the U.S. government's national debt scale exceeded $38 trillion on Wednesday for the first time in history. The debt has been growing rapidly in the past decade due to factors like population aging and increased interest payments [2]. - The release of the U.S. initial jobless claims data originally scheduled for 8:30 a.m. on October 23 was postponed due to the government shutdown [2]. Price Logic - In the short - term, the precious metals are expected to enter a shock adjustment phase. In the month, attention should be paid to the Sino - U.S. meeting around the APEC meeting. In the fourth quarter, focus on the Fed's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical conflicts [3]. - The market has fully priced in three interest rate cuts this year, but the 2026 interest rate cut expectation has not been reflected. Pay attention to the game around the December FOMC meeting [3]. - Personnel changes in the Fed within 1 - 2 quarters are an important variable. After Thanksgiving, the nomination of the new Fed chairman is expected to be confirmed, which may bring greater long - term interest rate imagination [3]. - Pay attention to the potential impact of the right - wing tendency after Koike Sanae is elected as the new Prime Minister of Japan [3]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals remains unchanged. The contraction of the U.S. dollar credit is the core foundation. In the long - run, the price center of gold and silver is expected to rise [3]. - This week, the price range of London Gold Spot is expected to be between $3,900 and $4,400 per ounce, and that of London Silver Spot is expected to be between $46 and $55 per ounce [3]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, with increases of 0.70%, 0.58%, 1.12%, and 0.86% respectively [43]. - The precious metals index on October 23, 2025, had a daily decline of 0.58%, a 5 - day decline of 5.94%, a 1 - month increase of 13.32%, and a year - to - date increase of 49.27% [44].