Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the S&P 500 index is expected to experience minimal volatility following the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, reflecting improved investor sentiment due to recent positive economic data [1] - The implied volatility for the S&P 500 index is projected at ±0.9%, the lowest since February, and significantly below the average actual volatility of 1.3% over the past year [1] - Following initial fears regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy, the market has rebounded as the Trump administration has eased some tariff measures, leading to a 2.8% decline from the index's all-time high earlier this year [1] Group 2 - Economists surveyed predict that the U.S. will add approximately 130,000 jobs in May, a decrease from 177,000 in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% [3] - Trader positions reflect optimism regarding the non-farm data, with hedge funds turning net short on CBOE volatility index futures after the S&P 500's best monthly performance since 1990 [4] - The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index has turned positive for the first time since the S&P 500's record high in February, indicating stronger economic data [4] Group 3 - A report from JPMorgan suggests that if May's job additions fall below 100,000, the S&P 500 could face a 3% decline, although this scenario has a low probability of about 5% [5] - The baseline scenario estimates job additions between 115,000 and 135,000, which could lead to a 0.25% to 1% increase in the index [5] - The upcoming employment data will provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction amid challenges such as trade uncertainties and potential inflation [7] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is attempting to balance policy rate adjustments in light of trade war uncertainties and economic slowdown, with the FOMC entering a quiet period ahead of the June 18 rate decision [7] - Market sentiment may remain tolerant even if job growth slows, as employment data is considered lagging and the real impact of tariff policies on the job market may take months to manifest [7]

Market Overview - The market is characterized by a constant tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, leading to fluctuations in price movements [1] - The focus should be on strategies to protect capital and respond to market changes rather than predicting market direction [1] Gold Market Analysis - On May 29, spot gold experienced fluctuations, opening at $3285.91 per ounce, reaching a high of $3294.46, and a low of $3245.29, closing at $3280.01, reflecting a decline of 0.34% [1] - Gold prices have fallen for four consecutive days due to multiple factors: a U.S. court ruling boosting market risk appetite, a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the dollar index returning to the 100 mark [1] - Despite the recent decline, medium to long-term support factors are accumulating, particularly due to delayed expectations for Fed rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. PCE price index release, which will provide critical guidance for assessing the Fed's policy direction and future gold price trends [1] Technical Analysis - The current prediction for gold indicates a potential downward adjustment from $3365, with two possible scenarios: one suggesting a five-wave upward movement and the other indicating a three-wave ABC structure [2] - The recent drop below the key support level of $3280 confirms the three-wave ABC structure, suggesting that gold may not reach new highs in the short term and is currently in the final Z-wave downward adjustment [2] Trading Strategy - A short position strategy is recommended: if gold rebounds to the $3300-$3310 range and faces resistance, a light short position can be initiated with a stop-loss above $3320 and a target set at $3270-$3280 [4]

Group 1 - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to improved global trade relations, particularly between the US and China, which has increased market risk appetite and led investors to move away from safe-haven assets like gold [1][2] - Gold prices fell over 2% on May 15, reaching a low of $3167.94 per ounce, marking the lowest level since April 10, with a closing price of $3177.32 per ounce [1][2] - The recent adjustment in gold prices is seen as a technical correction following a significant increase, with gold having reached a historical high of $3500.05 last month and a year-to-date increase of 21.3% [1][2] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks remain, particularly in the context of slow trade negotiations between the EU and the US, which could potentially revive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The upcoming release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data is crucial for investors to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy direction [2] - The gold market is expected to maintain high volatility due to the interplay of trade tensions, monetary policy, and economic data [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with resistance at $3200 and potential targets for further declines at $3168 and $3150 [4][5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on selling during rebounds, with specific price levels identified for entry and exit points [5][6] - The market sentiment is currently leaning towards a bearish outlook, with any upward movement viewed as an opportunity to sell [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, with each side canceling 91% of tariffs and suspending 24% of tariffs, alleviating concerns about a US economic recession and boosting global risk appetite. Domestically, China's exports in April far exceeded expectations, and the joint statement led to a short - term boost in domestic risk appetite, with the RMB exchange rate and domestic stock markets strengthening. [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks may rebound in the short - term; bonds may experience short - term shock and correction; commodities in different sectors have different short - term trends such as shock, shock and rebound, or high - level shock. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the China - US Geneva talks eased concerns about a US recession, and the US dollar index rebounded. Domestically, China's April exports were strong, and the joint statement boosted domestic risk appetite. Stocks may rebound in the short - term, bonds may correct, and different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. [2] - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors like military, humanoid robots, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market rose. With strong exports and the joint statement, short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold futures prices dropped. Trade tensions eased, the US dollar rose, and geopolitical risks decreased. Gold may be under short - term pressure but has long - term support. Silver is recommended for short - term observation. [4][5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market rebounded on Monday. The Geneva talks boosted risk appetite. Currently at the peak - to - off - season transition, demand is weak, and supply may peak and decline. Short - term rebound is possible. [6] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rebounded. Steel mill profits are good, but steel demand is weakening. Supply may increase in the second quarter. Short - term rebound is possible, but the medium - term trend is downward. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices rebounded slightly. Iron alloy demand is weakening. Supply is also decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. [7][8] Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The trade truce relieved the commodity market, and oil prices rebounded. Although still bearish overall, the extremely bearish stance has softened. [9] - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed oil prices up. Supply is low, demand is being boosted, and inventory transfer and depletion are occurring. It will follow oil prices and fluctuate at a high level. [9] - **PX**: The trade truce benefited the weaving end. PX has many overhauls, and it will remain strong in the short - term. [9] - **PTA**: Tariff cancellation and upstream overhauls led to a rise in the basis. Supply is decreasing and demand is increasing, but there are some factors that may affect future trends. It may be strong in the short - term. [10][11] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The polyester chain benefited from tariff cancellation. Supply is high, but downstream demand is strong, and it will remain strong. [11] - **Short - Fiber**: The yarn mill's operation is stable, and short - fiber prices have rebounded. It will remain strong in the short - term. [11] - **Methanol**: The price in Jiangsu Taicang is strong. Supply pressure is prominent, but there is short - term price repair and medium - term downward pressure. [12] - **PP**: The domestic PP market had a weak morning and a rising afternoon. Production is high, demand is weak, and the LP spread may strengthen in the short - term. [13][14] - **LLDPE**: The PE market adjusted. With increased device overhauls, decreased inventory, and rising oil prices, the price is expected to repair in the short - term. [14] - **Urea**: The domestic urea price increased. Supply is high, but there are short - term positive factors. Future trends depend on export policies. [15] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China - US talks boosted market sentiment. Supply - side processing fees are falling, and demand may be boosted by tariff cuts. Short - term price is volatile, and mid - term short - selling opportunities may be sought. [16] - **Aluminum**: The tariff situation is complex, and it is recommended to close long positions on rebounds and look for short - selling opportunities later. [16] - **Tin**: Supply may increase as mines are expected to resume production. Demand is entering the off - season, and short - term prices are volatile with risks from production resumption and weakening demand. [17]

Group 1 - International gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, currently at $3324.49 per ounce, with a decline of 0.58% from an opening price of $3341.30 per ounce [1] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy path, with expectations of a potential resumption of interest rate cuts in June, possibly implementing three cuts throughout the year [2] - Geopolitical tensions are impacting gold prices, with a temporary ceasefire announced by Russia, although Ukraine has not responded, providing potential support for gold [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is supported above $3268.00 and faces resistance below $3353.00, suggesting a possible upward trend if it stabilizes above $3293.00 [3] - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified at $3378.00-$3379.00, with significant support at $3323.00-$3324.00 and important support at $3293.00-$3294.00 [3]