Core Points - The U.S. federal government has shut down for the first time in nearly seven years, affecting approximately 750,000 federal employees who may be forced into unpaid leave [2][4] - The shutdown is expected to delay the release of significant economic data, including the September non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), complicating decision-making for the Federal Reserve [2][16][18] - The economic impact of the shutdown is projected to be severe, with estimates suggesting a loss of $7 billion in GDP for each week the government remains closed [2][21] Economic Impact - Approximately 750,000 federal employees will face unpaid leave, with a daily payroll cost of about $400 million during the shutdown [4][10] - Essential services such as border protection and air traffic control will continue to operate, but non-essential services funded by Congress may face closures [4][10] - The shutdown could lead to a decline in consumer and investor confidence, further exacerbating economic challenges [21] Political Context - The shutdown reflects ongoing political battles between the two major parties, primarily centered around healthcare funding and budget allocations [11][14] - The core disagreement involves the restoration of nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid funding and the extension of tax credits under the Affordable Care Act [14][15] - Historical context shows that government shutdowns have become a recurring political strategy, with the last significant shutdown lasting 35 days due to disputes over immigration and border funding [11][14] Market Reactions - Historical data indicates that U.S. stock markets may experience short-term pressure during shutdowns, but typically recover in the months following the reopening [23][24] - Gold prices tend to rise during prolonged shutdowns, with significant gains observed in past instances [30] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds generally increases during shutdowns due to heightened investor concerns over fiscal stability [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a cautious and moderately bullish strategy [4] Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals showed a trend of stabilizing and rebounding after a decline. With the approaching National Day holiday, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment may be stimulated. It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range suggested between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 40.08 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium was - 10.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, while the SMM Henan and Tianjin lead prices remained unchanged at 16,975 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained at - 75 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan/ton, 10,075 yuan/ton, and 10,350 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On September 25, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,085 yuan/ton and closed at 17,090 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,256 lots, an increase of 2,927 lots from the previous day, and the position was 62,847 lots, an increase of 1,776 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,145 yuan/ton and a low of 17,080 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract opened at 17,100 yuan/ton and closed at 17,125 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On September 25, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 46,000 tons, a decrease of 8,300 tons from the same period last week. As of September 25, the LME lead inventory was 219,550 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The lead price in Henan remained unchanged from the previous day. The inventory of smelters in Henan was low, and there were few scattered quotes. The quotes of holders were at a discount of 130 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract. In Hunan, the quotes of branded lead smelters were at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and there was some rigid - demand trading. Some smelters' quotes were at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. In Guangdong, the quotes of lead smelters changed to a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and a small amount of lead ingots for holiday delivery was pre - sold. Downstream rigid - demand restocking before the holiday was not completed. Smelters sold goods according to the market and actively pre - sold holiday production to avoid post - holiday inventory accumulation. The trading volume in the spot market was fair [2]

有色金属日报 2025-9-26 铜 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美国就业和耐用品数据偏强，美元指数反弹，铜价冲高回落，周四伦铜收跌 0.43%至 10275 美元/吨， 沪铜主力合约收 82380 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 350 至 144425 吨，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 贴水 31.4 美元/吨。国内电铜社会库存较周一减少 0.4 万吨，保税 ...

五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属日报 2025-9-25 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 【策略观点】 美联储议息会议表态偏鹰，短期情绪面相对承压，但若降息进程推进，市场情绪预计不会明显受抑。 产业上看铜原料供应紧张预期再次强化，自由港公司因 Grasberg 矿山事故显著下调该矿山四季度和 2026 年产量。当前尽管旺季需求表现一般，不过长假临近下游仍有一定的备货需求。短期铜价预计 延续偏强。 铝 【行情资讯】 周三伦铝下探回升，收盘涨 0.32%至 2654 美元/吨，沪铝主力 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Fed's hawkish stance in the FOMC meeting puts short - term pressure on sentiment, but if the rate - cut process advances, market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. For copper, the supply of raw materials remains tight, and with the approaching holiday, downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. - Although the Fed's statement is less dovish than expected, the progress of rate cuts is not expected to significantly suppress market sentiment. For aluminum, the peak - season characteristics of downstream demand are not obvious, but as prices fall and the National Day holiday approaches, downstream consumption is expected to improve, and aluminum prices have strong support below and may repair upwards in the short term [7]. - For lead, on the primary side, the accumulation rate of lead ore inventory is weaker than in previous years, and raw material shortages suppress primary smelting operations. On the secondary side, scrap prices decline, and secondary smelting profits are repaired, with a slight improvement in operations. Downstream battery enterprises' operations are higher than in previous years, and after the battery inventory pressure eases, downstream purchases increase slightly. It is expected that Shanghai lead will run strongly in the short term [9]. - For zinc, the domestic TC of zinc ore has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to rise, the upward rate may slow down significantly due to the low Shanghai - London ratio. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in an accumulation trend, while the overseas LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, and the Shanghai - London ratio continues to weaken. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will run weakly in the short term [11]. - For tin, the short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance. Although the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is approaching, the overall volume remains to be observed. Coupled with the warming of peak - season demand, tin prices may not fall in the short term and will continue to run in a volatile manner [13]. - For nickel, recently, the price of ferronickel is relatively strong, but the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down nickel prices. In the long - term, the US easing expectations and China's anti - involution policies will support nickel prices, and the RKAB approval in the new year also constitutes potential positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [17]. - For lithium carbonate, on Tuesday, the commodity index was weak, and lithium prices were under pressure during the session. But it is the peak - demand season, and domestic inventory is continuously decreasing, so the spot may remain in a tight state, and lithium prices have strong support at the bottom [20]. - For alumina, the ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the over - supply situation. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. - For stainless steel, domestic leading steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, and the physical inventory in Foshan is relatively low, resulting in strong support below. However, the consumer side has not improved significantly, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is low. It is expected to run in a narrow - range and volatile manner in the short term [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious yet. Coupled with the generation of the first batch of warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure of cast aluminum alloy appears, and the price is under pressure above, while the support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [29]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME copper fell 0.08% to $9993/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79970 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 to 144975 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. Domestic SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 28,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 55 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, the inventory decreased, with the spot premium remaining at 70 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed to 1800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME aluminum continued to be weak, closing down 0.34% to $2646/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20670 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 10,000 to 501,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 69,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory and aluminum bar inventory both decreased slightly, and the aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated up. The spot in East China was at a 10 - yuan discount to the futures, and the discount narrowed by 10 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory slightly decreased to 514,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio slightly increased [6]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices may repair upwards in the short term [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.44% to 17080 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 99,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S fell 3 to $1994/ton, and the total position was 159,600 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16975 yuan/ton, and the average price of secondary refined lead was 16900 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 51,100 tons [8]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai lead is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 1.09% to 21852 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 250,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S fell 43 to $2870/ton, and the total position was 215,600 lots. The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 157,000 tons [10]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai zinc is expected to run weakly in the short term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 269880 yuan/ton, down 0.97%. The SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 42 to 6600 tons. The average price of Shanghai spot tin ingots was 270500 yuan/ton, down 2000 yuan/ton. The supply of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State resumed slowly, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan's smelting enterprises still existed. It is expected that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. The demand in the new energy vehicle and AI server sectors is booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances is still weak. In August, the tin solder output of sample enterprises increased by 7.99% month - on - month [12]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may run in a volatile manner in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin, it is $32,500 - $35,500/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, nickel prices fluctuated. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120730 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. In the spot market, the transaction was average. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of ferronickel was also stable. The price of MHP coefficient increased slightly [15]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, if the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, nickel prices may fall further. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 72,987 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2511 contract closed at 73,660 yuan, up 0.33%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 200 yuan [19]. - **Strategy**: Lithium prices have strong support at the bottom. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 71,600 - 75,800 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.93% to 2879 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position increased by 0.8 to 444,000 lots. The Shandong spot price fell 15 to 2925 yuan/ton, with a 75 - yuan premium to the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $322/ton, and the import window opened [22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12890 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased by 2.51% [25]. - **Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to run in a volatile manner in the short term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: As of Tuesday afternoon, the AD2511 contract fell 0.22% to 20255 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased slightly. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 was stable, and the downstream mainly made rigid purchases. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.03 to 50,000 tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure above and supported by scrap aluminum costs [29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, the progress of interest rate cuts is not expected to significantly suppress market sentiment. Different metals have different market trends and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**: On Monday, LME copper closed up 0.06% at $10,002/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,275 tons to 145,375 tons. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.4 tons compared to last Thursday, and the spot premium in different regions showed different trends. The refined - scrap spread narrowed to 1,870 yuan/ton [3]. - **策略观点**: Although the Fed's hawkish stance puts short - term pressure on sentiment, if the interest rate cut process advances, market sentiment may not be significantly affected. Copper raw material supply remains tight. With the approaching of the long holiday, downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: On Monday, LME aluminum closed down 0.78% at $2,655/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE weighted contract decreased by 14,000 to 511,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipt decreased by 0.1 tons to 71,000 tons. Domestic mainstream area aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, and aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons. Aluminum bar processing fees fluctuated up, but actual transactions were average. The spot in the East China region remained at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged [4]. - **策略观点**: The downstream peak season characteristics of aluminum are not obvious, but as prices fall, aluminum bar processing fees rise again. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, downstream consumption willingness is expected to improve, and aluminum prices have strong support below. Short - term prices may repair upwards [5]. Lead - **行情资讯**: On Monday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.10% at 17,155 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $14 to $1,997/ton. Domestic and overseas lead inventories, warehouse receipt information, and various price differences are provided. Domestic social inventory decreased to 51,100 tons [7]. - **策略观点**: On the primary side, the accumulation rate of lead ore inventory is weaker than in previous years, and the TC of lead concentrate has decreased again, suppressing smelting start - ups. On the secondary side, scrap prices have declined, and smelting profits have recovered, with a slight increase in start - ups. Downstream battery enterprises' start - ups are higher than in previous years, and purchases have increased slightly. It is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the holiday arrangements of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day [8]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: On Monday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 0.20% at 22,092 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell by $6 to $2,913/ton. Domestic and overseas zinc inventories, warehouse receipt information, and various price differences are provided. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 157,000 tons [9]. - **策略观点**: The domestic TC of zinc ore has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to rise, the upward rate may slow down significantly due to the low SHFE - LME ratio. The surplus of zinc ore has eased. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in the accumulation trend, while overseas LME zinc inventory continues to decline. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector has cooled. It is expected that SHFE zinc will be weak in the short term [10]. Tin - **行情资讯**: On September 22, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 272,510 yuan/ton, up 1.39%. Domestic futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 42 tons to 6,600 tons. Spot and upstream tin prices rose. Supply is tight due to the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and enterprise maintenance. It is expected that domestic refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. Demand in the new energy and AI sectors is booming, but traditional consumer electronics and home appliances are still weak. With the arrival of the peak season, downstream consumption is expected to improve marginally [11]. - **策略观点**: Short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance. Although the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is approaching, the quantity is still to be observed. With the warming of peak - season demand, tin prices are difficult to fall in the short term and will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $32,500 - $35,500/ton [12]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: On Monday, nickel prices fluctuated. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121,400 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. Spot market transactions were average, and the prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and intermediate products showed different trends [14]. - **策略观点**: In the short term, although nickel iron prices are strong, the high inventory of refined nickel drags down nickel prices. If the inventory of refined nickel continues to increase, nickel prices may fall further. In the long term, the Fed's easing expectations, China's anti - involution policy, and the RKAB approval are expected to support nickel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**: The MMLC carbonate lithium spot index was 72,987 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2511 contract closed at 73,420 yuan, down 0.73%. In August 2025, China's carbonate lithium imports increased by 57.8% month - on - month and 23.5% year - on - year [18]. - **策略观点**: The commodity index fluctuated downwards, and lithium prices may continue to be under pressure. However, in the peak - demand season, domestic inventory is decreasing, and the spot is in a tight state, providing strong support for lithium prices. Both long and short funds are cautious. It is recommended to pay attention to resource supply and demand expectations. The reference range for the GFE carbonate lithium 2511 contract is 71,200 - 74,800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: On September 22, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.64% to 2,935 yuan/ton. The position increased by 11,000 to 436,000 lots. The domestic and overseas spot prices and import profit and loss information are provided. The futures warehouse receipt increased by 0.18 tons to 152,200 tons, and the prices of bauxite remained stable [21]. - **策略观点**: Bauxite prices have short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the surplus situation. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may drive the non - ferrous metals sector to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's bauxite policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: On Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,910 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. Spot prices in different regions remained unchanged. The prices of raw materials such as nickel iron and scrap steel showed different trends. Futures inventory decreased by 355 tons to 89,377 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.51% to 987,100 tons [24]. - **策略观点**: Indonesia's policy has limited impact on stainless steel. Domestic leading steel mills have strong price - support intentions, and the physical inventory in Foshan is low, providing strong support for prices. However, consumer demand has not improved significantly, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: As of Monday afternoon, the AD2511 contract fell 0.12% to 20,300 yuan/ton. The position and trading volume decreased. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 contracts narrowed. Domestic mainstream ADC12 prices and imported ADC12 prices decreased, and downstream purchases were on - demand. Domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **策略观点**: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious. With the generation of the first batch of warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure is emerging, and prices are under pressure above. The support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bullish [4] Core View of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals showed a trend of stabilizing and rebounding after a decline. With the upcoming National Day holiday, the downstream restocking enthusiasm may be stimulated. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging in the next week, with the buying range between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 43.72 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 15.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On September 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,150 yuan/ton and closed at 17,125 yuan/ton, a change of - 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 24,370 lots, a change of - 11,605 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position was 27,432 lots, a change of - 5,311 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,170 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,075 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,190 yuan/ton and closed at 17,165 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price remained flat compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters mainly shipped on long - term contracts, and some holders quoted at a discount of 150 - 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract for ex - factory prices. In Hunan, brand lead smelters also mainly shipped on long - term contracts, with few quotes for scattered orders. Traders quoted at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2510 contract or 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract for ex - factory prices. In Anhui and Jiangxi, holders quoted at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory prices. The lead futures fluctuated slightly lower, smelters' quotes were relatively firm, and downstream battery enterprises made small - scale bargain purchases after the pre - holiday stockpiling, with the trading volume in some markets being rather light [2] Inventory - On September 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 55,000 tons, a change of - 12,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 22, the LME lead inventory was 221,675 tons, a change of 1,375 tons compared to the previous trading day [3] Strategy - It is recommended to use buy - on - dips hedging in the next week, with the buying range between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is favorable, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to fluctuate in a moderately strong manner. Overseas, after the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the monetary policy stance is cautious, and a preventive rate cut has begun. In the short term, market sentiment has cooled slightly; in the long term, global liquidity easing is expected to drive a manufacturing recovery, indirectly boosting steel demand. [11][12] - In China, economic data in August slowed down and fell short of expectations, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales performance remains weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. Exports showed a slight decline last week and are in a weak and volatile state. [11][12] - Fundamentally, the output of rebar has declined, apparent demand has increased slightly, and inventory pressure has marginally eased; the output of hot - rolled coils has increased, apparent demand is neutral, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the peak - season demand is lackluster. Overall, although the traditional peak season has arrived, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot - rolled coils have some resilience, they are still weak overall. If the demand cannot be effectively restored in the future, steel prices may still face a downward risk. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session. [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - side - **Production volume**: This week, the total rebar output was 2.06 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59% and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The cumulative output was 81.1297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.04%. The long - process output was 1.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.63% and a year - on - year increase of 7.69%. The short - process output was 0.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.30% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. [6] - **Capacity utilization**: This week, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 90% (unchanged from the previous value), and the electric - furnace capacity utilization rate was 54%, down from 55% in the previous period. [53] - **Hot - metal output**: The average daily hot - metal output this week was 2.41 million tons, the same as the previous value. [58] - **Regional output**: The rebar output in the northern region was 0.4 million tons (down from 0.45 million tons in the previous period), and in the southern region was 0.83 million tons (up from 0.8 million tons in the previous period). The output in East China was 0.83 million tons, including 0.35 million tons in Jiangsu, 0.08 million tons in Shandong, and 0.18 million tons in Anhui. The output in Guangdong was 0.23 million tons, and in Guangxi was 0.08 million tons. [61][64][67] 3.2 Demand - side - **Apparent demand**: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1 million tons, compared with 1.98 million tons in the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. The cumulative demand was 78.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. [7] - **Building - material trading volume**: The trading volume of building materials was 117,741 tons (up from 105,098 tons last week), and the trading volume of building materials in Shanghai was 18,400 tons (unchanged from last week). [70] - **Regional trading volume**: The trading volume of construction steel for mainstream traders in the northern region was 20,465 tons, and in Beijing was 8,120 tons. In East China, it was 35,531 tons, including 4,970 tons in Shanghai and 4,900 tons in Hangzhou. In the southern region, it was 31,840 tons, and in Guangzhou was 5,000 tons. In Chengdu, it was 2,620 tons, in Chongqing was 5,000 tons, and in Xi'an was 2,300 tons. [72][73][76] - **Consumption volume**: The weekly consumption volume of rebar was 2.1 million tons, with 0.87 million tons in East China, 0.34 million tons in Southwest China, 0.26 million tons in South China, 0.11 million tons in North China, 0.19 million tons in Central China, 0.17 million tons in Northeast China, and 0.13 million tons in Northwest China. [78][80][83] - **Related prices and trade**: The price of cement (P.O 42.5) in Hangzhou was 465 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 455 yuan/ton. [85] 3.3 Profit - **Furnace profit**: The blast - furnace profit for rebar in East China remained around 22 yuan/ton, and the on - the - spot profit increased slightly. The profit during off - peak electricity hours was - 33 yuan/ton, and the price performance was neutral. [6] - **Electric - furnace profit**: The average profit of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was - 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton compared with last week. The blast - furnace profit for rebar was 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton compared with last week. [9][39] - **Cost**: The cost of hot - metal was 2,625 yuan/ton, the cost of scrap steel delivered to the factory was 2,257 yuan/ton, and the average cost of hot - metal for 64 steel mills was 2,625 yuan/ton. [9][47] 3.4 Inventory - **Total inventory**: This week, the social inventory of rebar was 4.85 million tons (down from 4.87 million tons in the previous period), a week - on - week decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 36.3%. The factory inventory was 1.65 million tons (down from 1.67 million tons in the previous period), a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0%. The total inventory was 6.5 million tons (down from 6.54 million tons in the previous period), a week - on - week decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 31.7%. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.22 million tons, down from 1.29 million tons in the previous period. [8][88][90] - **Regional inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 132 cities was 6.9 million tons, in East China was 3.29 million tons, in Hangzhou was 0.96 million tons, and in Shanghai was 0.37 million tons. In South China, it was 0.72 million tons, in North China was 0.99 million tons, in Guangzhou was 0.18 million tons, and in Beijing was 0.46 million tons. In Central China, it was 0.51 million tons, in Northwest China was 0.5 million tons, in Wuhan was 0.2 million tons, and in Xi'an was 0.22 million tons. In Southwest China, it was 0.62 million tons, in Northeast China was 0.59 million tons, in Chengdu was 0.23 million tons, and in Chongqing was 0.17 million tons. [93][96][99][102] 3.5期现市场 - **Price and basis**: The lowest - warehouse - receipt basis was 28 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.9%. The basis for the 01 contract was 9 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was - 48 yuan/ton, and the 10 contract was 102 yuan/ton. [10][20] - **Spread**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts of rebar was - 57 yuan/ton, between the 05 and 10 contracts was 150 yuan/ton, and between the 10 and 01 contracts was - 93 yuan/ton. The Beijing rebar - hot - rolled coil spread was 290 yuan/ton (up from 250 yuan/ton last week), the Shanghai spread was 140 yuan/ton (down from 190 yuan/ton last week), and the Guangzhou spread was 60 yuan/ton (down from 100 yuan/ton last week). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 70 yuan/ton (up from 40 yuan/ton last week), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was - 7 yuan/ton (up from - 37 yuan/ton last week). The Beijing premium for spiral rebar was 150 yuan/ton (up from 140 yuan/ton last week), the Shanghai premium was 130 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), and the Guangzhou premium was 160 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week). [22][25][28][30] - **Other prices**: The price of billets (20MnSi) in Tangshan was 3,130 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of rebar (HRB400E, Φ20) in Beijing was 3,170 yuan/ton, the FOB export price of rebar in China was 471 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of rebar in Southeast Asia was 470 US dollars/ton, in the United States was 985 US dollars/ton, in the EU was 605 US dollars/ton, and the CFR import price of rebar from the UAE in the Middle East was 640 US dollars/ton. The lowest spot price of rebar was 3,156 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1,438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 936 yuan/ton. [33][36] 3.6 Trading Strategy Suggestion No trading strategy suggestions were provided in the report. [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for various agricultural products, including "Oscillating" for oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, live pigs, synthetic rubber, and sugar; "Oscillating Strongly" for natural rubber and cotton; "Oscillating Weakly" for corn/starch in the short term; and specific trading ranges and outlooks for double-offset paper and logs [5][6][8][10][11][13][14][16][19][21]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of multiple agricultural products, influenced by factors such as weather, supply and demand, policies, and international trade. For example, the decline in the good - rate of US soybeans affects the oil and protein meal markets; the new grain listing rhythm impacts the corn market; and the "anti - involution" policy affects the live pig market [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The good - rate of US soybeans continues to decline, and oils and fats continued to oscillate strongly yesterday. - **Logic**: Affected by seasonal harvest pressure and demand concerns, US soybeans and soybean oil fluctuated. The macro - environment focuses on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, and the dollar weakened on Monday. Crude oil prices oscillated strongly due to concerns about Russian oil supply interruptions. In the industrial sector, the drought - affected area of US soybeans has expanded, and the good - rate has dropped to 63%. The import volume of domestic soybeans is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak. The production of Malaysian palm oil in September may be at a high level, and the probability of inventory accumulation is large. The demand for palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel may be better than expected. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil continues to decline slowly, but it is still high year - on - year. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of the recent strengthening of oils and fats. The probability of a continued increase in oil prices in the medium term is high [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot market drags down the futures price, which tests the lower - edge support. - **Logic**: Internationally, the Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and a US interest - rate cut is almost certain. The September supply - demand report adjusted the US soybean area and yield. The good - rate of US soybeans is in line with expectations, and the export inspection is better than expected. The sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans needs attention. Domestically, in the short term, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills continues to accumulate, and the physical inventory of feed enterprises also rises slightly. In the long term, the purchase of soybeans in October is nearly completed, and the purchase in November is advancing. - **Outlook**: The macro - expectation is positive, the yield of US soybeans may still decline, and the sowing progress in South America is uncertain. The protein meal futures price continues to oscillate in the range, and it is recommended to hold long orders and take corresponding hedging measures [5]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The arrival volume of trucks is at a high level, and the futures and spot prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The supply side is affected by the active grain sales in the trading link, and the inventory of each link is declining. The demand side is affected by the inventory situation of feed enterprises. In the short term, there is pressure from the new grain listing, and in the long term, the price is not pessimistic under the condition of tight carry - over inventory. - **Outlook**: In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For arbitrage, pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [6][7]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The spot market pressure persists, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, the planned slaughter volume of farms in September increases, and the supply of pigs is abundant in the short, medium, and long terms. The "anti - involution" policy may gradually reduce the supply pressure in 2026. In terms of demand, the ratio of pork to pig slightly increases, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is stable. The utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens decreases. - **Outlook**: The spot price is expected to oscillate. The futures market shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and pay attention to reverse - spread strategy opportunities [8]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It runs strongly and returns to the 16,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: After the 09 contract is delisted, the 01 contract is still strong, and it is also driven by the overall strengthening of commodities. The short - term reality shows strong spot, inventory reduction, and narrowing basis. However, it is difficult to break through the previous high without further positive drivers. The supply side needs to pay attention to the output and inventory reduction rate, and the demand side needs to observe the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises. - **Outlook**: The macro - sentiment is good, and the short - term fundamentals are also supportive. The rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10][11]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It runs in a range. - **Logic**: The BR futures price oscillates horizontally. It follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tight supply of raw material butadiene. In the medium - term, the expectation of many device overhauls from September to November and the low price reduce the bearish sentiment, but there is no continuous upward - driving force. - **Outlook**: The butadiene price is expected to rise slightly in the short term, and the futures price may oscillate strongly [12][13]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price fluctuates slightly, and pay attention to the dynamic of the purchase price. - **Logic**: Internationally, Brazil and India are expected to increase production, while the US is expected to reduce production, but the global cotton production may not decrease significantly. Domestically, the commercial inventory is low, the downstream demand improves, and the opening price of new cotton is expected to be higher than last year. The Fed may cut interest rates in September, which may boost commodity prices. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it oscillates in the range of 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price oscillates slightly. - **Logic**: In the long term, the global sugar market supply is expected to be loose in the 25/26 crushing season, and the sugar price has a downward pressure. In the short term, the production and export of Brazilian sugar are in the peak season, and the domestic import also increases. However, the short - term downward space is limited, and there is a certain support for a rebound. - **Outlook**: In the long term, the sugar price has a downward - driving force and is expected to oscillate weakly. In the short term, it runs in the range of 5,500 - 5,750 yuan [16]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment is temporarily stable, and the pulp enters a range - fluctuation market. - **Logic**: The pulp futures price rebounds after hitting a new low. The stabilization is mainly due to the non - excessive weakness of the double - offset paper futures after listing and the relief of the pressure of warehouse - receipt trading after the 09 contract delivery. The demand in the spot market is average. The price increase of the US dollar - denominated pulp has a weakened effect, and the resumption of production by Chenming brings additional supply. Although it is the seasonal peak season, the demand improvement is limited. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The expected fluctuation range is 4,950 - 5,300 yuan [17][18]. 3.1.10 Double - Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The commodity sentiment rebounds, and the double - offset paper oscillates strongly. - **Logic**: The double - offset paper futures price rebounds with the commodity sentiment. In the short term, the fundamentals change little, the publisher's tender has not started, and there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. The spot price is at a neutral level, and there is no clear upward or downward driver. - **Outlook**: It is difficult to go up or down unilaterally. Consider operating in the range of 4,000 - 4,500 yuan [19][20]. 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The processing demand recovers slightly, and the spot price may have an upward - adjustment expectation. - **Logic**: The inventory of logs rebounds slightly, and the market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The arrival pressure in September improves, but it is expected to increase seasonally in October. The demand for logs in China is expected to increase in September - October, and the port is in the inventory - reduction stage. - **Outlook**: The log price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in September [21]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for various varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, live pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [23][41][54][66][113][124][139][164]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards, including "Strongly", "Oscillating Strongly", "Oscillating", "Oscillating Weakly", "Weakly", with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and the calculation method of standard deviation [178].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai copper may be adjusted due to the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut amplitude, the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, and the high copper price suppressing potential demand [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 80,880, down 60 from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,548 hands, an increase of 19,677; the open interest was 165,216 hands, a decrease of 14,040; the inventory was 33,692 tons, an increase of 3,049 [2] - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 240 on September 16, 2025, up 240 from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 81,120, up 180 [2] - **London Copper**: On September 16, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,117, down 72 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 59.26, up 2.67 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.6991, up 0.05; the total inventory was 312,868, an increase of 2,381 [2] 3.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of many copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decrease compared with last week. The supply - demand expectation of scrap copper is tight, and the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates tend to decline. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September increases month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo cut production in September 2025 due to water - power supply shortages, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo [2] - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season leads to a recovery in the demand of some copper processing industries, but the high copper price makes downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventories and only make rigid - demand purchases [2] - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increases compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreases compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increases compared with last week [2] 3.3 Trading Strategy - For previous long positions, take profits at high prices or wait for the price to fall before laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 [2]