Group 1: Market Overview - Global stock market momentum paused after a record week, primarily due to disappointing earnings reports from European companies like Volkswagen and Puma, alongside rising expectations for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][5] - European markets were the main drag on global sentiment, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index down 0.6% and major indices like Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 also declining [4][5] - The US market remained stable, with the S&P 500 futures showing little change, while the dollar strengthened and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose by one basis point to 4.41% [1][4] Group 2: Automotive Sector Performance - The automotive and parts manufacturing sector's pessimistic earnings outlook was a direct catalyst for the market decline, with Valeo's stock plummeting 12.4% after lowering its annual sales forecast [2] - Volkswagen also downgraded its earnings outlook due to tariff challenges, resulting in a 2.4% drop in its stock price, while its truck subsidiary Traton saw an 8.1% decline [2] - The overall European automotive stock index fell by 1.4%, marking it as the largest contributor to the market's downturn [2] Group 3: Consumer Brands Impact - The weak performance of individual consumer brands, particularly Puma, which saw its stock drop 18.7% after lowering its annual earnings forecast, further exacerbated market pessimism [5] - The overall sentiment in European regional stock markets turned negative, with increased risk aversion among investors [5] Group 4: Federal Reserve Expectations - Prior to the negative news from Europe, the US stock market had been performing well, with the S&P 500 index reaching 10 new highs in 19 trading days, driven by strong earnings and optimism regarding trade agreements [6] - As the Federal Reserve's policy meeting approaches, market sentiment is shifting, with analysts suggesting a greater likelihood of the Fed maintaining a hawkish tone [6][9] - Institutional trading departments, including Goldman Sachs and Citadel Securities, are advising clients to consider hedging strategies to protect against potential market pullbacks [9]

Core Viewpoint - The sentiment in the market shifted as U.S. Treasury yields turned from rising to falling after deeper analysis of newly released economic data, indicating a complex economic outlook despite initial positive indicators [1] Group 1: Economic Data Analysis - Initial jobless claims decreased, and retail sales exceeded expectations, initially leading to an increase in Treasury yields, suggesting strong economic resilience [1] - However, the decrease in jobless claims was influenced by a smaller-than-usual summer shutdown in auto factories, indicating potential underlying weaknesses [1] - Retail sales growth may not be as robust as it appears, with future trends showing risks of weakness according to economic analysts [1]

Core Viewpoint - In the third week of June, international gold prices experienced the largest weekly decline of the year, dropping 2.8% to around $2,280 per ounce, indicating a significant restructuring of the pricing logic for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and easing geopolitical risks [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index regained support amid adjustments in interest rate expectations, becoming a key factor suppressing gold prices. Futures indicate that traders have pushed back the expected timing of the Fed's first rate cut from September to November, with the steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve pushing the dollar index above 106 [3]. - The substantial decrease in geopolitical risks accelerated profit-taking among gold bulls, particularly after a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, leading to a noticeable contraction in market demand for safe-haven assets [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Changes - The World Gold Council reported a 12% year-on-year decline in global gold jewelry demand in Q2, with weaker-than-expected seasonal purchases in the Indian market. Although central bank gold purchases remained high, China's gold reserve increase slowed to 21 tons in April-May, down from an average of 35 tons per month in Q1 [7]. - The marginal changes in supply and demand dynamics have reinforced the momentum for price adjustments, with institutions beginning to revise gold valuation models. Credit Suisse lowered its year-end gold price forecast from $2,500 to $2,350, citing rising real interest rates that will compress gold premium space [7].

Geopolitical Analysis - Iran's retaliatory actions against the U.S. led to a ceasefire, reducing geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion, which in turn pressured gold prices [1] - Trump's unexpected "thank you" remarks regarding Iran's response further eased tensions, contributing to a decline in gold prices [1] - The combination of reduced geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on monetary policy is expected to exert downward pressure on gold prices in the future [1] Technical Analysis - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, with a failure to break through the key resistance level of 3400, indicating weak upward momentum [3] - The price has fallen below the important support level of 3335, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend [3] - Current technical structure appears weak, with a focus on the critical support area around 3320; a break below this level could open further downside towards the psychological level of 3300 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have heightened geopolitical tensions, impacting gold prices and market sentiment [1][3]. Market Analysis - As of June 23, gold prices fluctuated significantly, closing at $3387.89 per ounce, with a daily range between $3347.09 and $3397.95 [1]. - The market is currently influenced by two main factors: escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, and internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy [3]. - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have provided temporary support to gold prices, with each statement boosting prices by approximately 30 points [4]. Technical Analysis - The current technical indicators suggest a stalemate in the gold market, with short-term moving averages intertwined and the MACD hovering near the zero line, indicating a lack of clear direction [6]. - The previous high of $3500 remains a significant resistance level, and the market may be shifting towards a bearish trend [6]. - A key strategy for investors is to consider short positions around the $3400 mark, with a critical support level at $3360; a break below this could trigger further selling [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a resurgence of the dollar's safe-haven appeal, while the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has dampened expectations for rapid rate cuts, putting pressure on gold prices [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to provide support for gold prices despite the stronger dollar [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has weakened the attractiveness of holding gold, as indicated by Chairman Powell's comments that downplayed expectations for rate cuts [2][4] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is facing short-term downward pressure, with key resistance levels at $3370 and $3390, while support levels are identified at $3340 and $3315 [4] - Recent trading activity shows gold fluctuating around $3356, with a notable drop to $3340 before a slight rebound, reflecting the impact of the Federal Reserve's stance on market sentiment [1][4] - The short-term outlook for gold remains weak, with indicators suggesting further potential declines, as the hawkish Fed position overshadows geopolitical factors [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, with a shift in the dot plot indicating a reduction in rate cut expectations for 2025 from two to one, with seven officials supporting no cuts for the year [2] - Fed Chair Powell emphasizes that inflation pressures may be exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts and tariff policies, leading to increased market uncertainty regarding the Fed's policy path [2][3] - Economic data shows a mixed picture: initial jobless claims reach 245,500, an eight-month high, indicating labor market weakness, while manufacturing and services PMIs suggest economic resilience [3] Group 2 - The gold market is experiencing a "pendulum effect," with short-term support from geopolitical conflicts, but diminishing safe-haven demand as market reactions remain muted despite rising tensions in the Middle East [4] - Current dollar index stands at 98.67, with real interest rates around 1.15%, suggesting a reasonable gold price range of $3,200-$3,300 per ounce, yet spot gold remains above this range, reflecting market pricing for stagflation risks [5] Group 3 - The Fed's policy is highly data-dependent, with potential implications for gold prices based on upcoming economic data releases, particularly the July CPI and the assessment of tariff impacts in the July FOMC meeting [7] - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to increased safe-haven buying of gold, but there is a caution against the "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon, as historical data shows that geopolitical tensions typically boost gold prices for only 1-2 weeks [9]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, reaching a weekly low of approximately $3344 before rebounding to around $3357 during the Asian session on June 20 [1] - On June 19, gold prices experienced significant volatility, hitting a low of $3347.53 and a high of $3387.77, ultimately closing at $3370.64, nearly flat [1] - The US dollar index rose to a one-week high of 99.16 but retraced some gains by the end of the session, with a weekly increase of about 0.7%, marking the strongest weekly performance since late February [1] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve maintained current interest rates but indicated potential for future rate cuts, while Chairman Powell cautioned against excessive expectations for rate reductions [2] - Powell highlighted that upcoming tariffs from the Trump administration could increase commodity prices, leading to a rise in inflation during the summer [2] - The Fed's vigilance regarding inflation risks diminishes the likelihood of rate cuts, putting direct pressure on gold prices as high-interest environments make gold less attractive compared to yield-bearing assets [2] Geopolitical Tensions - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, provided significant support for gold prices as a safe-haven asset [4] - The escalation of airstrikes and missile attacks between Israel and Iran has heightened concerns over global security, leading to increased demand for gold [4] - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard's claims of targeting Israeli military facilities and Israel's accusations of attacking civilian targets have intensified the conflict, further driving up market anxiety [4] Diplomatic Efforts - Diplomatic communications are ongoing, with US Middle East envoy engaging with Iranian officials to seek a resolution to the crisis [5] - Iran has stated it will return to negotiations only if Israel ceases its attacks, while E3 and EU are planning meetings with Iranian officials to explore diplomatic solutions [5] - The persistence of geopolitical risks suggests that demand for gold as a safe-haven asset may continue in the near term [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices showed a small-bodied close, indicating pressure, with potential further declines if the market falls below $3350, possibly testing above $3300 [8] - Short-term movements have been fluctuating below $3400 since a peak of $3452, with recent tests below $3350 indicating a bearish trend [8] Trading Strategies - Aggressive long positions can be attempted around $3332 with a stop loss at $3327 and a target near $3350/$3360 [9] - Aggressive short positions can be initiated around $3370 with a stop loss at $3377 and a target near $3343/$3333 [9]

Group 1 - Current spot gold price opened at $3370.38 per ounce, with a daily high of $3370.43 and a low of $3344.71, reflecting a slight decline of 0.7% [1][2] - The market is at a critical juncture between "geopolitical conflict risk" and "hawkish Federal Reserve policies," leading to a stalemate in gold prices [1][3] Group 2 - The ongoing deterioration of the Middle East situation, including an Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation, has led to a marginal decrease in safe-haven demand for gold [2][3] - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the market shows signs of fatigue regarding risk, with gold futures in New York down 0.82% and Shanghai gold T+D down 0.63% [2][3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, with a shift in the dot plot indicating a reduction in rate cut expectations for 2025 [3][5] - Market participants are still betting on a 62% probability of a rate cut in September, despite the Fed's hawkish stance [3][5] Group 4 - Economic data shows a mixed picture, with initial jobless claims reaching 245,000, the highest in eight months, indicating labor market weakness, while manufacturing and services PMIs suggest economic resilience [5] - The CPI data indicates that inflation pressures may not have fully materialized, but rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions could lead to imported inflation [5] Group 5 - Technical analysis indicates a struggle between bulls and bears, with gold prices facing resistance at the $3400 level and support around the 20-day moving average at $3347 [6][8] - The hourly chart shows a sideways movement in the $3361-$3379 range, with potential for a downward move if the price falls below $3361 [8][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and inflation expectations [1][3][4] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a key factor affecting gold prices, with indications that there may still be room for interest rate cuts this year, despite warnings against overly optimistic expectations for rate reductions [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent escalation between Israel and Iran, provide significant safe-haven support for gold prices, countering the downward pressure from the Fed's hawkish stance and a strong dollar [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently experiencing a contraction phase, with key resistance levels identified around 3370-3372, and a new downward trend has formed [6] - Recent trading activity shows gold fluctuating within a defined range, with a notable drop from 3388 to 3347, aligning with previous market expectations [6]