| 2023-00 | ZUZ4-UB | 00-6707 | 22 ETF-SPOR ETF-SLVIRET - 200 | 2025-09 | 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 | 一黄金基差(AuT+D-期货连续) | -- COMEX金银比价 | ●SHFE金银比价 | -- | -- 伦敦金现(右) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -- 白银价差(AgT+D-期货连续) | | | | | | | | | | | 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold has surpassed $3,800 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, driven by the onset of a second round of interest rate cuts and increasing inflation expectations [1] - Silver is expected to show greater elasticity in the current macro environment characterized by enhanced global monetary easing, weakened dollar credibility, and escalating regional conflicts [1] - The current silver-to-gold ratio is at a historically low level, indicating potential for silver prices to catch up, similar to the market behavior observed in May 2020 [1] Group 2 - As of September 29, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) has risen by 3.46%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Zhaojin Mining (up 7.36%) and Tongling Nonferrous Metals (up 7.14%) [4] - The Gold Stock ETF (159322) has increased by 3.00%, with a recent price of 1.58 yuan, and has shown a cumulative increase of 4.50% over the past week [4] - The trading volume for the Gold Stock ETF has been active, with a turnover of 13.13% and a total transaction value of 12.72 million yuan [4] Group 3 - The Gold Stock ETF has seen a net asset value increase of 44.34% over the past six months, ranking 406 out of 3,678 index stock funds, placing it in the top 11.04% [5] - The fund has achieved a maximum monthly return of 16.59% since inception, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [5] - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is 2.06, ranking it in the top 2 out of 6 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [5] Group 4 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index account for 66.52% of the index, with Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold being the largest constituents [6] - The top ten stocks include Zijin Mining (10.84% weight), Shandong Gold (10.02% weight), and Zhongjin Gold (7.37% weight), among others [8]

贵金属日报 2025-09-29 贵金属 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.88 %，报 862.50 元/克，沪银涨 3.90 %，报 10936.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.33 %， 报 3796.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.07 %，报 46.63 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.2%，美元指数报 98.16 ； 贵金属期货及 ETF 的持仓量大幅上升：路透统计口径中，外盘主要黄金 ETF 持仓量本月上升 3.79%至 2261.6 吨，外盘主要白银 ETF 持仓量上升至 27945.91 吨。沪金总持仓量由 9 月初的 42.2 万手上升至当前的 45.4 万手，COMEX 黄金总持仓量同期由 41.7 万手上升至 51.5 万手。 沪银总持仓量由 86.5 万手上升至 91.2 万手，COMEX 白银增仓幅度相对有限，同期由 15.3 万手 上升至 16.7 万手。 短期降息预期受挫难改联储中期宽松的格局：美联储主席鲍威尔在本月议息会议中表态较市场 预期而言偏鹰派，各期限美债收益率有所回升。但 2026 年美联储主席换届在即，当前新任主 席热门候选人哈塞特、沃勒及沃 ...

2025年9月28日上海贵金属市场价格行情分析 风起云涌的黄金行情：价格多维，市场活跃 2025年9月28日，上海的贵金属市场呈现出活跃的交易态势，金价依旧是市场的焦点。当天，上海黄金 T D的成交价定格在每克856.8元，而沪金期货则以856.12元/克的微弱劣势紧随其后。中国黄金的基础金 价也相对稳定，报收于855.8元/克。 在琳琅满目的黄金饰品市场，价格区间显得更为宽泛，每克价格在879元至1108元之间波动，反映出不 同品牌、工艺以及设计所带来的价值差异。与此同时，各大银行的投资金条价格也各有千秋。工商银行 的"如意金条"报价为72.52元/克，而中国银行、建设银行及民生银行则分别以871.35元/克、870.20元/克 和870.20元/克的价格紧随其后。农业银行的金条价格则略显坚挺，为893.19元/克，在银行系产品中显 得更为突出。 一、 珠宝品牌足金价格概览：高端品牌价格趋同，部分产品更具性价比 深入探究各大珠宝品牌的足金价格，我们可以发现一个有趣的现象： 周大福、六福珠宝、金至尊、谢瑞麟 均以每克1108元的价格，提供纯度高达99.9%的足金产品，形成价 格联盟。 周生生 略微领先，其足金 ...

【宏观消息】 美联储洛根表示现在是时候为新的基准利率做好准备了，美联储应放弃联邦基金利率 改用国债抵押隔 夜利率；美联储戴利表示我认为随着时间推移，可能还需要进一步降息；美联储理事鲍曼表示现在应转 向关注就业，而非通胀；美联储施密德表示美联储资产负债表的关键问题是准备金的适当水平，储备金 可能降至约2.6万亿美元，资产负债表缩减越多越好；美联储古尔斯比表示对基于就业数据放缓而提前 实施过多降息感到有些不安；美联储理事米兰表示我认为利率过于具有限制性，幅度为150-200个基 点，应以50个基点的步伐逐步减少限制性。本周美联储密集发言显示内部分歧依旧存在，过度的降息交 易存在回调风险。 美国第二季度实际个人消费支出季率终值 2.5%，预期1.7%，前值1.6%；美国第二季度实际GDP年化季 率终值 3.8%，预期3.30%，前值3.30%；主要上修项为净出口贡献。本周经济数据对市场的影响加大， 在2季度经济数据显示向好后，市场降低了美联储降息的必要性，市场对美联储10月维持利率不变的预 期概率由10%上升至15%；美国9月标普制造业PMI录得50.2，仍处枯荣线之上；而相较而言欧元区9月 的制造业PMI出现了滑 ...

9月26日，沪金主力暂报862.50元/克，涨幅达0.88%，今日沪金主力开盘价857.70元/克，截至目前最高 865.28元/克，最低857.38元/克。 【宏观消息】 美联储洛根表示现在是时候为新的基准利率做好准备了，美联储应放弃联邦基金利率 改用国债抵押隔 夜利率；美联储戴利表示我认为随着时间推移，可能还需要进一步降息；美联储理事鲍曼表示现在应转 向关注就业，而非通胀；美联储施密德表示美联储资产负债表的关键问题是准备金的适当水平，储备金 可能降至约2.6万亿美元，资产负债表缩减越多越好；美联储古尔斯比表示对基于就业数据放缓而提前 实施过多降息感到有些不安；美联储理事米兰表示我认为利率过于具有限制性，幅度为150-200个基 点，应以50个基点的步伐逐步减少限制性。本周美联储密集发言显示内部分歧依旧存在，过度的降息交 易存在回调风险。 【黄金期货行情表现】 本周美股的走势出现调整走势，主要源于科技AI行业的短线调整，这一定程度形成负反馈从而加深市 场压力；同时美国银行准备金自1月1日以来首次跌破3万亿美元，其占商业银行总资产的比例下降至 12.57%，低于13%的阈值，这一数据反映了当前美国银行体系流动 ...

期货公司观点 广发期货： 目前在美国就业市场下行风险增加的情况下，美联储政策路径呈现"预期强化-独立性受挫"的双重特征 从而打压美元指数，同时欧美国家政治局势动荡使股市风险偏好下降从而增加机构投资者对贵金属避险 的配置需求带来价格不断抬升。美联储决议如期降息 25 个 BP 对于未来宽松步伐仍较谨慎需要基于数 据决策，本次市场解读偏中性消化后未来分歧或更剧烈使行情走势反复。短期美国政府"关门"和海外政 局动荡等风险升温，黄金维持高位震荡波动率或再次上升，单边择机逢低买入或买入虚值看涨期权代替 多头。 美国经济在第二季度以近两年来最快的速度增长，为自2023年第三季度录得4.7%增长以来的最强劲表 现，这得益于消费者支出数据被大幅上修。然而，这份强劲的报告也显示出通胀压力比之前评估的更为 顽固。25日周四，美国经济分析局（BEA）公布的初步数据显示：美国二季度实际GDP年化季环比终值 增长3.8%，这一增速高于此前报告的3.3%，第一季度曾出现萎缩。美国二季度核心个人消费支出(PCE) 物价指数年化季环比终值 2.6%，预期 2.5%，前值 2.5%。 随着流动性继续从金融体系中流失，美国银行体系的外汇储备连续 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年09月26日15时47分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属金弱银强，沪金主力收涨0.01%，沪银主力收涨2.27%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易协议分批达成，但美联储独 立性担忧再起；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期开始兑现。②避险属性方面，俄乌、中东等地缘异动仍 存。特朗普试图解雇美联储理事库克，库克诉特朗普越权罢免，引发外界担忧美联储的独立性。③货币属性方面，美联储降息25 个基点并暗示将进一步下调利率。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储在未来的利率决策中需要继续平衡高通胀和就业市场趋弱这两种 相互竞争的风险。美国上周初请失业金人数意外下降，美国第二季经济增速上修至近两年最快，削弱美联储进一步降息理据。目前 市场预期美联储10月降息25基点概率维持90%附近，且年内降息次数预期仍有2次左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品 属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币贬值利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中长期阶梯上行。 | | | 净多或 | | | | 博客 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.45% to 854.72 yuan/gram, while the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.08% to 10,411 yuan/kilogram [4]. - The US economic data is performing well, the US dollar index has rebounded, the trade situation between the US and Europe has further eased, and the market has closed positions in advance before the National Day holiday to avoid risks. As a result, the upward trend of gold has slowed down and entered a high - level shock. However, silver, boosted by its industrial attributes and the sharp rise of copper, has continued its upward trend. On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Bessent urged a rate cut by the end of the year, and the probability of two more rate cuts this year remains high. In the long run, precious metal prices still have room to rise [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will long - term increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The continuation of gold purchases by global central banks means that the medium - to - long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Internal and External Gold and Silver - **Price Data**: On September 25, 2025, the price of London gold was 3,740.94 US dollars/ounce, London silver was 43.96 US dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3,771.60 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 44.26 US dollars/ounce, AU2510 was 851.74 yuan/gram, AG2510 was 10,370 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 850.58 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 10,346 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the price of gold generally decreased, with a decline of 0.8% for London gold, 0.9% for COMEX gold, 0.5% for AU2510, and 0.5% for AU (T + D). The price of silver also mostly decreased, with a decline of 0.3% for London silver and 0.2% for COMEX silver, but AG2510 and AG (T + D) increased by 0.2% [3]. - **Spread/Ratio Data**: On September 25, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 1.16 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 24 yuan/kilogram, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) was - 4.78 yuan/gram, the spread of silver internal - external market (TD - London) was - 896 yuan/kilogram, the ratio of SHFE gold - silver main contracts was 82.14, the ratio of COMEX gold - silver main contracts was 85.22, the spread of AU2512 - 2510 was 2.98 yuan/gram, and the spread of AG2512 - 2510 was 41 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 28.9%, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) decreased by 31.0%, etc. [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX Gold and Silver Non - commercial Positions**: As of September 16, 2025 (weekly data), on September 24, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 326,778 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 60,368 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 266,410 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position increased by 0.59%, the non - commercial short position decreased by 4.38%, and the non - commercial net long position increased by 1.78%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 71,623 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 20,085 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 51,538 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position decreased by 1.14%, the non - commercial short position increased by 8.49%, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 4.45% [3]. - **ETF Positions**: On September 24, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR was 996.85 tons, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV was 15,469.12379 tons. Compared with September 23, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.37%, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: On September 25, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 65,634 kilograms, an increase of 8.41% compared with September 24. The SHFE silver inventory was 1,156,855 kilograms, a decrease of 0.43% compared with September 24 [3]. - **COMEX Inventory**: On September 24, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 39,807,223 troy ounces, an increase of 0.16% compared with September 23. The COMEX silver inventory was 527,155,089 troy ounces, an increase of 0.08% compared with September 23 [3]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Index Data - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: On September 25, 2025, the US dollar index was 97.87, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.57%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.16%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11. Compared with September 24, the US dollar index increased by 0.06%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.13%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged [3][4]. - **Index**: On September 25, 2025, the S&P 500 index was 6,637.97, and the NYMEX crude oil price was 64.81. Compared with September 24, the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.76%, and the NYMEX crude oil price increased by 1.82% [4].

| 贵金属日评20250926:美联储未来降息预期转鹰施压贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-24 | 2025-09-19 | 收盘价 | 854. 72 | -5. 28 | 830. 56 | 24. 16 | 860. 00 | | | | | 成交量 | 270576.00 | 285621.00 | 210003.00 | 60. 573. 00 | -15, 045. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 240177.00 | 26, 452. 00 | 266629.00 | 274765.00 | -8.136.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 8, 205.00 | 65634.00 | 60543.00 | 57429.00 | 5,091.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 ...