研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 上周在伦敦黄金反弹至 4245 美元/盎司和伦敦白银接近历史记录之后，美联 储官员表态鹰派抑制了美联储降息预期，美元汇率获得提振而金银价格随之回落； 我们判断短期内美联储放缓降息步伐甚至暂停降息、中美贸易形势边际缓和等利 空因素，与地缘政治风险上升和国际贸易货币体系加速重组等利多因素相平衡， 伦敦黄金需要在 3880-4380 美元/盎司的波动区间内运行更长时间以积累再次突 破动能，目前阶段不宜过度追涨杀跌。但在中期维度，环球央行宽松、地缘政 ...

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 东吴证券指出，降息预期下行致贵金属持续回调，但底部已现等待新的上行催化。贵金属整体波动率已 大幅下行，伦敦白银现货较Comex期银重回升水状态，表明现货持续紧张。贵金属当下仍处于底部整理 阶段，但主要下跌回调期已经过去，整体宏观框架仍属做多窗口期，贵金属中期逻辑依旧通顺，看好后 市行情。 ...

| | | 购金持续介入，金价中枢或进一步抬高。沪金2512合约关注区间：900-950元/克；沪银2512合约关注区间 免责声明 贵金属产业日报 2025-11-17 ：11500-12300元/千克。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 929.46 | -23.74 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 11933 | -418 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 101723 | -11874 主力合约持仓量:沪 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月17日16时33分 一、黄金 报告导读： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 4084.40 | -90.10 | -2.16% | 76.60 | 1.91% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 4071.10 | -124.55 | -2.97% | 77.00 | 1.93% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 929.46 | -23.74 | -2.49% | -6.52 | -0.70% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 930.22 | -17.76 | -1.87% | -2.80 | -0.30% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | -1.54 | 2.79 | -65% | -16.85 | -110% | | | 沪金主力基差 ...

| 贵金属日评20251117: 多位美联储官员放鹰使贵金属价格承压 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-10 | 收盘价 | 953. 20 | 17.22 | 961. 22 | 935. 98 | -8. 02 | | | | | 成交量 | 307687.00 | 307850.00 | 320688.00 | -163.00 | -13,001.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 113597.00 | 124239.00 | 136657.00 | -23, 060. 00 | -10. 642. 00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 90426.00 | 89616.00 | 0. 00 | 810. 00 | 90426.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 | 947. ...

长江期货贵金属周报 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 2025/11/17 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 1610 2110 2610 3110 3610 4110 4610 2024/01/02 2024/02/02 2024/03/02 2024/04/02 2024/05/02 2024/06/02 2024/07/02 2024/08/02 2024/09/02 2024/10/02 2024/11/02 2024/12/02 2025/01/02 2025/02/02 2025/03/02 2025/04/02 2025/05/02 2025/06/02 2025/07/02 2025/08/02 2025/09/02 2025/10/02 2025/11/02 美国政府 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 贵金属冲高回落，短期建议观望 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-11-17 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 ◆ 上周贵金属冲高回落，但周线仍整体收涨。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）上半 周，美国政府即将结束停摆，市场预期美国财政部即将释放流动性，同时美联储12月 降息预期提升和美联储独立性继续遭到削弱等，美元指数走弱，提振贵金属价格再度 强势上涨；且白银受益于流动性和供应偏紧(国内库存走低+国内TD升水期货)利好， 表现远强于黄金，沪银期货价格创历史新高。（2）后随着美国政府停摆结束落地， 市场避险需求有所削弱，加上在美国关键经济数据持续缺失背景下，多位美联储官员 发表偏鹰派言论，市场预测美联储12月降息概率低于50%，美债收益率回升，引发投 资者恐慌，美股、比特币等风险资产持续下挫；在流动性风险下，贵金属亦遭到同步 抛售，致使金银价格上周五夜盘大幅下挫，且白银因前期涨幅较大，获利了结压力更 大，因此跌幅更甚。 ◆ 后市展望：我们认为流动性风险持续的时间或相对有限，因此贵金属价格在经历上 ...

智通财经APP获悉，黄金股集体走低，截至发稿，中国黄金国际(02099)跌4.03%，报135.8港元；山东黄 金(01787)跌3.46%，报33.52港元；赤峰黄金(06693)跌2.96%，报29.54港元；紫金黄金国际(02259)跌 2.54%，报138港元。 消息面上，现货黄金上周五遭遇大幅回调，自4211美元历史高位急速下挫近180美元，创下近期最大单 日跌幅。东吴证券指出，上周美联储鹰派理事博斯蒂克宣布将于明年一季度退休，市场认为届时鸽派实 力将占优，下半周随着更多理事的"鹰派"言论，降息预期大幅回撤，该行认为当下整体宏观框架仍属做 多窗口期，贵金属中期逻辑依旧通顺，看好回调后后市行情。 铜冠金源期货表示，目前美联储官员普遍发表鹰派言论，市场对之前对于12月降息的乐观预期在进行修 正。市场出现普遍出现获利了结现象，风险资产以及黄金、加密货币都同步下跌，呈现典型的"买预 期、卖事实"的表现。该行认为近期金银价格的反弹已结束，将再度进入调整。短期关注本周四即将公 布的最为重磅的非农数据。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Multiple Fed officials' hawkish remarks and the end of the US government shutdown may lead to short - term adjustments in precious metal prices, but long - term factors such as global debt expansion, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks will support precious metal prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 961.22, with a change of 15.46 compared to the previous day and 39.96 compared to the previous week; COMEX gold futures' closing price was 4174.50, with a change of - 26.90 compared to the previous day and 184.10 compared to the previous week; London gold spot price was 3968.20, with a change of 227.45 compared to the previous day and 58.90 compared to the previous week [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 12588.00, with a change of 515.00 compared to the previous day and 1104.00 compared to the previous week; COMEX silver futures' closing price was 52.23, with a change of 4.37 compared to the previous day and - 1.00 compared to the previous week; London silver spot price was 53.87, with a change of 2.34 compared to the previous day and 6.26 compared to the previous week [1] - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 76.36, with a change of - 3.86 compared to the previous day and - 1.98 compared to the previous week; the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 83.35, with a change of - 2.39 compared to the previous day and - 5.46 compared to the previous week [1] 3.2 Important Information - The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown, and it is estimated that the shutdown caused 60,000 job losses; multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks before the release of important economic data [1] 3.3 Multi - Empty Logic - Short - term: Multiple Fed officials' remarks reduced the probability of a December rate cut to around 45%, and the end of the government shutdown is expected to lead to the release of a large amount of economic data, which may cause short - term adjustments in precious metal prices [1] - Long - term: Global debt expansion, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks will support precious metal prices [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold previous long positions; for London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 870 - 890 and the resistance level around 960 - 1000; for London silver, pay attention to the support level around 38 - 45 and the resistance level around 55 - 60; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9500 - 10500 and the resistance level around 12400 - 13000 [1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry was mentioned in the report [1] Core View - Multiple Fed officials signaled a cautious approach or opposition to a December rate cut, reducing the probability of a December rate cut to around 45%. Along with the end of the US government shutdown and expectations of a large amount of economic data release, precious metal prices may adjust in the short term. However, factors such as global debt expansion, fiscal deficit, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical risks will support precious metal prices in the medium and long term [1] Summary by Relevant Content Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On November 14, 2025, the futures active - contract closing price was 961.22 yuan/gram, up 15.46 yuan from the previous day and 39.96 yuan from last week. The spot Shanghai Gold T + D closing price was 944.31 yuan/gram, up 14.36 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The futures active - contract closing price was 12,588 yuan/ten - grams, up 515 yuan from the previous day and 1,104 yuan from last week. The spot Shanghai Silver T + D closing price was 12,563 yuan/ten - grams, up 471 yuan from the previous day [1] - **COMEX Gold**: The futures active - contract closing price was 4,174.50 dollars/ounce, down 26.90 dollars from the previous day but up 184.10 dollars from last week. The London Gold Spot price was 3,968.20 dollars/ounce, up 227.45 dollars from the previous day [1] - **COMEX Silver**: The futures active - contract closing price was 52.23 dollars/ounce, up 4.37 dollars from the previous day. The London Silver Spot price was 53.87 dollars/ounce, up 2.34 dollars from the previous day [1] Price Ratios - The price ratio of Shanghai Gold Futures to Shanghai Silver Futures was 76.36, down 3.86 from the previous day and 1.98 from last week. The ratio of London Gold Spot to London Silver Spot was 83.35, down 2.39 from the previous day [1] Other Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE Crude Oil was 463.70 yuan/barrel, down 16.70 yuan from the previous day and 14.20 yuan from last week. ICE Brent Crude was 63.11 dollars/barrel, up 0.43 dollars from the previous day and down 0.44 dollars from last week [1] - **Copper and Steel**: Shanghai Copper Futures was 86,840 yuan/ton, up 710 yuan from the previous day and 1,610 yuan from last week. Shanghai Rebar was 3,046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous day and 12 yuan from last week [1] Important Information - The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. Trump's chief economic advisor estimated that the shutdown caused 60,000 job losses [1] - Fed officials signaled a hawkish stance before important economic data release. Some officials advocated caution, while others opposed the previous month's rate cut and said December's action would depend on data [1] Trading Strategy - Hold existing long positions. For London Gold, focus on support around 3,850 - 3,950 dollars/ounce and resistance around 4,180 - 4,384 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai Gold, focus on support around 870 - 890 yuan/gram and resistance around 960 - 1,000 yuan/gram. For London Silver, focus on support around 38 - 45 dollars/ounce and resistance around 55 - 60 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai Silver, focus on support around 9,500 - 10,500 yuan/ten - grams and resistance around 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ten - grams [1]