Core Viewpoint - The WTO is facing unprecedented challenges due to unilateral actions by the U.S., leading to concerns about the future of the global trade system, with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasizing the need for reform and resilience in the current trade framework [1][2]. Group 1: Global Trade Dynamics - The average U.S. tariff rate has increased from 2.4% at the beginning of the year to 18.4% following recent agreements [1]. - Approximately 72% of global goods trade is still operating under basic "Most-Favored-Nation" tariff conditions, a decrease from 80% at the start of the year [2]. - Despite the challenges, global goods trade is projected to grow by 0.9% this year, an improvement from earlier predictions of a 0.2% contraction [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The U.S. is experiencing economic risks, with the average actual tariff rate reaching 17.4%, the highest since 1935 [3]. - Economic growth in the U.S. is expected to slow down, with annualized growth rates projected to drop from over 3% in Q2 to 1.2%-1.3% in Q3 and Q4 [3]. - The potential for further U.S. dollar depreciation exists, which could lead to prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve [4]. Group 3: Trade Policy Implications - The new tariff policies are anticipated to reduce the openness of the U.S. economy, with a projected 1.7 percentage point decrease in the share of goods exports in GDP by 2030 [4]. - A decline in economic openness is generally associated with reduced productivity, raising concerns about the long-term impact of protectionist policies on global economic growth [4].

Group 1 - WTO analysis indicates that approximately 72% of global goods trade still operates under basic "Most Favored Nation" tariff conditions, a decrease from 80% at the beginning of the year, and this percentage may continue to decline [1][4] - The global goods trade volume is projected to grow by 0.9% this year, which is significantly lower than the pre-tariff prediction of 2.7%, but an improvement from the April forecast of a 0.2% contraction [3] - The average actual tariff rate in the U.S. has risen to 17.4%, the highest level since 1935, due to new tariffs implemented this year [6] Group 2 - The global trade system is undergoing a stress test, with the U.S. facing economic downturn risks, and the growth rate is expected to slow down to 1.2%-1.3% in the third and fourth quarters from over 3% in the second quarter [6][7] - The U.S. economy's slowdown is largely seen as temporary compared to other developed economies, but risks remain, including potential further depreciation of the dollar and a slowdown in productivity growth [7] - The new tariff policies are expected to reduce the openness of the U.S. economy, with projections indicating a 1.7 percentage point decrease in the share of goods exports in GDP by 2030 compared to earlier forecasts [7]

Core Points - The article argues that the U.S. is not successfully creating a new trade order but is instead undermining its own benefits from the existing trade system [1][2] - The U.S. has failed to meet its own trade agreement goals, with current agreements covering less than half of its trade volume [1] - The article highlights that the benefits of trade liberalization continue to grow, with average household gains reaching $19,500 in 2022 [1][2] Group 1 - The U.S. Trade Representative claimed the creation of a "Turnberry System" for "reciprocal tariffs," but this has not led to significant economic outcomes [1] - The current trade policies have resulted in increased average tariff levels, reminiscent of the 1930s, leading to rising prices and uncertainty [2] - The dismantling of U.S. trade policy does not signify the beginning of a new global trade system but rather a retreat from global engagement [2] Group 2 - The article cites that without the current trade system, the U.S. GDP would decrease by $2.6 trillion, contradicting claims that the trade system is the root of economic issues [2] - U.S. trade partners remain committed to supporting and reforming the global trade system, contrasting with the U.S. approach of unilateral actions [2]

Market Developments - The U.S. President Trump nominated Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve Board to fill the vacancy left by the sudden resignation of Adrienne Kugler [1] - The White House signed an executive order allowing 401(k) investors to invest in alternative assets for better returns and diversification [1] - The International Chamber of Commerce stated that the new U.S. tariff measures significantly increase complexity for businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, and called for clearer execution guidelines [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims increased by 7,000 to 226,000, slightly above market expectations [2] - The German Federal Statistical Office reported a 1.9% month-on-month decline in industrial output for June, the lowest level since May 2020, influenced by external factors such as U.S. tariffs [3] - Germany's exports in June increased by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, driven by strong demand from China and the EU, ending a two-month decline [3] - The Bank of England lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in a year due to ongoing economic challenges [3] - Japan's government revised its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7% due to the impact of U.S. tariffs and persistent inflation [5] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 224.48 points to 43,968.64, a decline of 0.51%; the S&P 500 dropped by 5.06 points to 6,340.00, a decrease of 0.08%; while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 73.27 points to 21,242.70, an increase of 0.35% [6] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.44% to $3,482.70 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 1.66% to $38.53 per ounce [7] - Crude oil prices fell, with light crude futures down by $0.47 to $63.88 per barrel, and Brent crude futures down by $0.46 to $66.43 per barrel [7] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.23% to 98.400, with the euro trading at 1.1622 against the dollar and the pound at 1.3410 [8] - The onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.1777 against the dollar, appreciating by 123 basis points from the previous trading day [8]

Core Viewpoint - The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) has expressed concerns regarding the new round of tariff measures implemented by the United States, highlighting the increased complexity and burden on businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 1: Impact on Businesses - The new tariff regulations significantly complicate operations for businesses, making it difficult for export companies to determine applicable tax rates [1] - Even multinational companies with robust compliance systems are facing challenges due to the operational confusion and execution uncertainty brought about by the new tariffs [1] Group 2: Call for Clarity - The ICC has called on the U.S. government to provide clearer execution guidelines to alleviate the burdens imposed by the new tariff measures [1] Group 3: Global Trade Context - Despite the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs, global trade continues to operate under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, with several economies signaling positive moves towards trade liberalization [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. is set to implement a new round of tariffs on various countries, including 35% on goods from Canada, 50% from Brazil, 25% from India, and 39% from Switzerland, effective August 7 [1] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 18.3%, the highest level since 1934 [3] Group 2 - The new U.S. tariff policy is expected to reduce trade volume as it increases costs for imported goods, leading to a decrease in exports to the U.S. from other countries [4] - The tariffs are likely to raise domestic prices of goods in the U.S., contributing to inflation, although the extent of this impact remains uncertain [4] - The U.S. is predicted to experience a decline in its position in global trade due to the establishment of high trade barriers, which will reduce trade interactions with other countries [4] - Countries heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. will face significant impacts on their trade [4] Group 3 - Historically, the U.S. has oscillated between protectionism and liberal trade policies, with current shifts being driven by perceived national interests and challenges faced by the U.S. [5] - The U.S. has reverted to protectionist policies after a long period of advocating for trade liberalization, which may be detrimental to both the U.S. and the global economy [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the full island closure operation in Hainan signifies a new phase in the construction of the free trade port, enhancing international connectivity and facilitating a new round of open-up dividends [1][2] - The closure will transform Hainan into a special customs supervision area, allowing for "one line open, two lines controlled, and free flow within the island," which promotes local high-quality development while maintaining control [1][2] - The "zero tariff" policy will expand from 1,900 to 6,600 categories, covering 74% of goods, significantly reducing corporate costs, particularly benefiting high-end manufacturing and biomedicine industries [1] Group 2 - The processing and value-added policies will lower the threshold for benefits, expanding the scope of beneficiaries and supporting the cultivation of industrial chains and clusters [2] - The establishment of a regional offshore trade center will enable companies to operate global orders without actual transit, significantly reducing transaction costs for international trade enterprises [2] - Traditional advantageous industries, such as tourism retail, will benefit from increased duty-free shopping limits and "zero tariff" policies, attracting more international visitors [3] Group 3 - The closure operation is a long-term task that requires continuous improvement and adaptation to form a policy system compatible with a high-level free trade port [3] - Hainan's free trade port closure is a significant move for China's expansion in the context of rising global protectionism, aiming to become a key gateway for China's new era of opening up [3]

Core Insights - The announcement of Hainan Free Trade Port's closure date on December 18, 2025, marks a significant opportunity for various industries, particularly tourism and retail [1][4]. Industry Summaries Tourism Industry - The closure policy will facilitate smoother and freer international exchanges, enhancing Hainan's position as an international tourism consumption center and promoting long-term development of the tourism industry [1][4]. - The continued implementation of duty-free policies will maintain Hainan's competitive advantage, attracting more visitors and boosting the overall development of the tourism retail market [1][4]. Retail Industry - The duty-free shopping market in Hainan is expected to see new growth opportunities post-closure, with optimized duty-free policies attracting more consumers [1][4]. Airport Industry - The airport sector will benefit from the expansion of international routes and infrastructure upgrades, leading to significant growth in passenger and cargo throughput in Hainan during 2025-2026 [1][4]. Real Estate Industry - Hainan's real estate market, particularly in high-end residential and tourism-related properties, is anticipated to gain more attention following the closure [4]. Related Companies - China Duty Free Group (1880.HK): Expected to benefit from duty-free policies, with a potential recovery in profitability due to supportive policies and increased consumer traffic [5]. - Meilan Airport (0357.HK): Structural opportunities from Hainan Free Trade Port development and innovation in non-aviation business models are likely to drive performance improvements [5].

Group 1 - The potential impact of U.S. tariff policies on the economy raises concerns among economists, suggesting that both the U.S. and global economies may only be experiencing a calm before a storm, with the worst yet to come [1][2] - Analysts warn that if tariffs reach 20% or higher, businesses may completely halt imports, leading to delayed major decisions and reduced economic activity [2] - The uncertainty caused by trade policies is seen as costly, potentially equivalent to the actual tariff rates, and inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, which may suppress growth [2] Group 2 - Germany's leadership is considering retaliatory measures against U.S. pressure for higher baseline tariffs, indicating a readiness for potential conflict in trade relations [3] - The U.S. economy is described as more fragile than recent data suggests, with employment, consumption, and an overvalued stock market nearing unfavorable turning points [3] - The article emphasizes that without a decisive shift away from protectionist policies by the U.S. President, the stability of the economy may be at risk [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the potential economic and trade friction among ASEAN countries due to the differentiated tariff rates imposed by the US, effective from August 1 [2] - South Korea's new president has taken swift action by sending envoys to Australia and Germany to discuss defense cooperation and trade issues, aiming to strengthen international cooperation networks [2] - Brazil and India announced an ambitious plan to significantly increase their bilateral trade by 70% to reach $20 billion, demonstrating their commitment to deepening economic ties [2] Group 2 - Indonesia is set to reach an important agreement with the EU to reduce most tariffs to zero, further promoting trade liberalization [2] - Vietnam's Deputy Minister of Trade stated that the country is actively exploring other trade agreements to reduce dependence on the US market and enhance economic autonomy [2] - Wendy Cutler from the Asia Society Policy Institute noted that as countries find it increasingly difficult to meet US requirements, their willingness to seek common interests and strengthen cooperation with other nations will intensify [2] Group 3 - Current gold futures are trading around 776.30 yuan per gram, down 0.25%, with a high of 779.40 yuan and a low of 773.84 yuan, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 782 yuan and 810 yuan per gram, while important support levels are between 765 yuan and 800 yuan per gram [2]