Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable credit risk outlook for the securities industry, with expectations of manageable risks in the coming year [10][73]. Core Insights - The securities industry is experiencing a positive performance trend, with overall revenue and profit growth expected in 2025, driven by active capital markets and increased contributions from wealth management and proprietary trading [10][73]. - Regulatory bodies have been actively refining rules and policies, enhancing the operational framework for securities companies, which is expected to support long-term growth and stability in the industry [11][12][13]. - The concentration of the securities industry is increasing due to mergers and acquisitions, leading to intensified competition among smaller firms [16][19]. Industry Policy and Regulatory Environment - Since 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has been actively revising and implementing rules to enhance market stability and compliance, focusing on long-term development and risk management [11][12][13]. - The regulatory environment is shifting from rule-making to enforcement, allowing the market to adapt to existing regulations [15]. Industry Competition Status - The total assets of securities companies have been steadily increasing, with a reported growth of 9.30% in total assets and 6.10% in net assets year-on-year as of 2024 [16][17]. - The top ten securities firms account for a significant portion of the industry’s revenue and profit, indicating a high level of market concentration [17]. Industry Operating and Financial Conditions - The overall performance of securities companies is improving, with a projected revenue growth of 23.47% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [17][26]. - The proprietary trading segment has become the primary revenue source, with a notable increase in investment income [16][26]. - The asset management sector is also showing growth, with a significant increase in the number of new products launched in 2025 [49]. Debt Market Performance - The issuance of debt instruments by securities companies has surged, with a 72.70% increase in the number of issues and an 83.15% increase in issuance volume in 2025 [63][64]. - The credit quality of issuers remains high, with the majority rated AAA or AA+, indicating a stable financing environment [66][67]. Future Outlook - The securities industry is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory, supported by ongoing regulatory reforms and a stable economic environment [73][74]. - The focus on asset market reforms and the enhancement of capital market inclusivity are anticipated to bolster the industry's resilience and growth potential [73].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Guangfa Securities plans to issue H-shares and convertible bonds to raise funds for expanding its international business, taking advantage of the improving capital market and macroeconomic recovery [1] - The ongoing reform in the capital market is expected to enhance the policy environment for the securities industry, providing a favorable backdrop for future development [1] - The company has slightly adjusted its previous profit forecasts, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to reach 14.8 billion, 17.2 billion, and 19.6 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, with growth rates of 53%, 16%, and 15% respectively [1] Group 2 - The current market capitalization corresponds to price-to-book ratios of 1.37, 1.25, and 1.14 for the years 2025-2027 [1] - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese securities industry, highlighting the growth opportunities for domestic brokers due to deepening capital market reforms, increased foreign investment, and rising demand for prime brokerage services [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Growth Projections**: The profitability growth rate for Chinese brokers is expected to reach 12% in 2026, supported by policies such as the normalization of IPO issuances and the expansion of derivatives [1][5]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The regulatory focus on supporting strong firms while limiting weaker ones is leading to accelerated industry consolidation, improving the performance structure of leading brokers [1][4]. - **Investment Value Changes**: Historically low investment value in the securities sector is changing due to reduced competition, improved performance stability, and a shift towards risk-neutral strategies [4][10]. - **Market Dynamics**: The demand for direct financing is increasing due to economic transformation, with a notable rise in M&A and debt restructuring activities [2][19]. Investment Opportunities - **Short-term Opportunities**: Key investment lines for 2026 include: 1. Increased activity in the primary market driven by normalized A-share IPOs. 2. Brokers with strong sales and trading capabilities benefiting from stable returns generated by institutional investors. 3. Companies with strong international business growth, particularly those leading in cross-border operations [6][22]. - **Wealth Management Trends**: The shift in resident wealth towards financial assets presents opportunities for brokers to enhance their wealth management services, focusing on differentiated offerings for retail clients [8][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Long-term Investment Value**: The long-term investment value of the securities sector is expected to improve as the industry structure becomes more balanced and competitive pressures decrease [10][14]. - **Regulatory Changes**: The ongoing regulatory reforms are expected to enhance the growth potential and valuation framework for brokers, particularly in attracting long-term foreign capital [19][20]. - **Valuation Metrics**: Current valuations for the securities sector are low, providing a safety net for future growth, with A-share and Hong Kong brokers trading at 1.5x and 0.98x PB levels, respectively [20]. Conclusion - The Chinese securities industry is poised for significant growth driven by regulatory support, market demand, and evolving investment strategies. Key players are expected to capitalize on these trends, enhancing their market positions and profitability in the coming years [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory body is intensifying its "zero tolerance" approach towards financial fraud in the capital market, aiming to establish a comprehensive prevention and punishment system through cross-departmental collaboration [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions and Achievements - Since 2024, the regulatory authority has handled 159 financial fraud cases, resulting in 111 administrative penalties totaling 8.1 billion yuan [1]. - The regulatory framework emphasizes both punishing the primary offenders and their accomplices, with 112 cases referred to law enforcement for criminal investigation [1][2]. - Eighteen companies involved in severe fraud have approached the threshold for mandatory delisting due to major violations [1]. Group 2: Systematic Approach to Fraud Prevention - The recent cross-departmental meeting signifies a critical juncture in the legal and regulatory framework, addressing how to convert institutional advantages into effective governance [4]. - Financial fraud cases are increasingly characterized by systematic and long-term behaviors, often involving internal actors and complex networks, necessitating a more robust and coordinated response [4][5]. - The new regulatory measures, including the "National Nine Articles" and investor protection mechanisms, aim to create a comprehensive legal framework to combat fraud effectively [5][6]. Group 3: Tools and Mechanisms for Enforcement - The comprehensive prevention and punishment system is not limited to fines but includes a multi-faceted accountability structure that ensures seamless coverage of responsibility [8]. - The regulatory authority has intensified accountability measures against major shareholders and actual controllers, with significant penalties imposed in high-profile cases [8][9]. - The integration of administrative, criminal, and civil liabilities creates a robust deterrent against financial fraud, with innovative mechanisms for dispute resolution being introduced [9][10]. Group 4: Long-term Market Health and Investor Protection - The meeting's outcomes aim to establish a long-term, normalized prevention mechanism to safeguard the capital market's health and integrity [12]. - The principle of "no exemption after delisting" has been firmly established, ensuring that past violations will be pursued regardless of a company's current status [12]. - Enhanced investor protection measures, including collective lawsuits, are being implemented to address the challenges faced by investors in seeking redress [12][13]. Group 5: Market Implications and Future Outlook - The ongoing crackdown on financial fraud is viewed as a foundational step towards ensuring the long-term healthy development of the capital market [13]. - A robust prevention system is expected to attract long-term capital by creating a fair competitive environment for quality companies [13]. - The regulatory actions align with broader reforms aimed at enhancing market resilience and international competitiveness, marking a significant shift in the capital market landscape [13].

| 日度美容 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 品种 | 股指进一步放量上涨,收日内最高点,预计延续偏强走势。拉长 | 周期来看,2026年股指有望在2025年基础上继续上行:宏观政策 | | | 持续发力、通胀温和回升或有助于改善企业盈利预期;资本市场 | 改革政策的引导有望为A股带来增量资金;同时中央汇金发挥"类 | 宏观金融。必 | 平准基金"作用,也将对市场形成支撑。策略上看,建议投资者 | | | | | 仍以择机布局多头仓位为主。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,近期关注 | 震荡 | 国 债 | 日本央行利率决策。 | | | | 近期矿端供应扰动升温,叠加宏观情绪好转,铜价进一步走高。 | 원미 | 近期国内电解铝有所累库,产业驱动有限,但宏观情绪向好,叠 | 加铝锭供应趋紧预期提前发酵,铝价有望维持偏强运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝供应端仍有较大释放空间,产业面偏弱施压价格,但当前 | 价格基本处于成本线附近,预计价格震荡运行。 ...

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二是资源类板块的走强，反映百年变局下全球各国对于资源安全的强烈诉求。以31个申万一级行业划 分，有色金属行业是本轮13连阳期间表现最好的板块，整体涨幅接近20%。其中，铜、铝及各类能源金 属板块个股涨幅靠前。 当下，全球地缘博弈和资源保护主义为本就脆弱的资源供应端带来更多挑战，并加速重构大宗商品贸易 秩序，这一趋势在过去20年间极少出现，且在将来仍存在巨大的不确定性。事实上，上述新科技赛道背 后的"AI竞速"，也在一定程度上反映了该时代特征。 （上接1版） 而资本市场不断提高对前沿领域的适配度，成为推动新科技赛道风起云涌的主要背景。2025年底，上交 所发布业务指引，推进科创板第五套上市标准在商业航天等领域扩围，加快推进商业航天创新发展，主 动服务航天强国战略。 回到市场制度方面，在新的全球经济格局下，资本市场被赋予前所未有的战略使命，已超越若干年前的 融资渠道定位，跃升为驱动国家竞争力重构的重要引擎。在"稳住楼市股市"的定调下，资本市场各项改 革加速推进同样是新的时代注脚。 近两年来，资本市场有关中长期资金入市、投资者回报优化、科创企业支持体系升级等方面的改革渐次 落地，深刻改变了A股的资金结构与交易逻辑。 ...

H 无 F T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T TH ETF网格策略 ETF网格策略重点关注标的 (1) 游戏ETF（159869.SZ） 据国家新闻出版署统计数据,2025年12月，共 有144款国产网络游戏与3款进口游戏获批，2025年 全年版号发放总数1771个，创下自2019年以来近7 年新高,较2024年增长超20%。版号发放的常态 化、可预期,彰显监管层对游戏产业健康发展的持 续支持。海外市场方面，据中新网报道，2025年上 半年,中国自主研发游戏在海外市场的实际销售收 入为95.01亿美元，同比增长11.07%，显示出国产 游戏强劲的出海能力。而从供应端考虑，Al在游戏 美术、代码、剧情生成等环节的应用，能够利于降 低开发成本、提升效率,并有望催生玩法创新。 作文在关研究创新部 测区间为近 120 交易日,数据戴至 2025/12/31;由于数据获取限制,该回测基于每日前复权收 假设交易费用为 0:回测结采可能与真实交易情况不同:回测结果基于历史数据,不代表未来 亚大精选 ETF（159687.SZ） 注:回测区 ...

从个股来看，东方财富核心业务多元稳健、核心竞争力深厚、估值性价比突出......更多详情见下图： 格隆汇1月6日｜A股券商股集体上涨，其中，入选了格隆汇2026年"下注中国"十大核心资产名单的东方 财富(300059.SZ)大涨近5%至24.88元。 从行业方面来看，近期市场景气度改善、交投活跃度维持高位，券商板块从估值到业绩均具备β属性， 全面受益。长期看资本市场新一轮改革周期开启，券商仍有较大发展增量空间。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...