Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for this year is set at around 5%, which is deemed necessary for stabilizing employment, preventing risks, and benefiting people's livelihoods [2][4][5] - The target aligns with China's actual economic conditions and development laws, and is considered achievable [2][3][4] - Factors supporting this target include the ongoing recovery of the economy, the rise of new industries, and supportive macroeconomic policies [3][4] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Target - The CPI growth target has been adjusted down to around 2%, marking the first time it has been set below 3% since 2004 [6][8] - This adjustment reflects the current economic situation, where deflationary pressures are more significant than inflationary ones [6][7] - The government aims to improve supply-demand relationships and stabilize prices through various policies [6][8] Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The fiscal deficit rate is proposed to be set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan [9][10] - This marks the highest deficit level since the implementation of proactive fiscal policies in 2008, indicating a strong commitment to economic recovery [9][10] - The increased fiscal spending will focus on social welfare, technological innovation, and infrastructure investment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth, with a target GDP growth rate of around 5% for 2025, reflecting the need for employment stability, risk prevention, and improving people's livelihoods [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Summary - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan [1][3]. - The issuance of special bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, aimed at supporting state-owned commercial banks and local government projects [1][4]. - The total new government debt for the year is projected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to last year, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending intensity [1][5]. Monetary Policy Summary - A moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented, with measures such as timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to ensure ample liquidity [2][4]. - The focus will be on optimizing structural monetary policy tools to promote healthy development in the real estate and stock markets, as well as supporting technological innovation and green development [2][6]. Special Bonds and Local Government Debt - The increase in local special bonds is expected to enhance their role in stabilizing growth, addressing shortfalls, and promoting recovery in the real estate market [5][6]. - Special bonds will be directed towards municipal construction, new energy, and new infrastructure, with a portion allocated for replacing hidden debts, thereby reducing local debt risks [5][6]. Long-term Special Bonds - The scale of long-term special bonds will be expanded to 1.3 trillion yuan, with a significant portion aimed at boosting consumption and supporting high-end, intelligent, and green transformation of equipment [3][6]. - Issuing special bonds to supplement commercial bank capital is expected to lower risks for banks and enhance their ability to support the real economy through interest rate cuts [6].

Group 1 - The government plans to set the fiscal deficit rate at around 4% for the year [2] - A special long-term bond issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan is proposed, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year [4] - A special bond of 500 billion yuan is planned to support the capital replenishment of large state-owned commercial banks [5] Group 2 - Local government special bonds are proposed to be arranged at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on investment construction, land acquisition, and settling debts owed to enterprises [7] - The report emphasizes optimizing and innovating structural monetary policy tools to promote healthy development in the real estate and stock markets, and to support technology innovation, green development, and consumption [9] Group 3 - A special long-term bond of 300 billion yuan is planned to support the replacement of consumer goods [10] - The government aims to strengthen the application of new technologies and products, promoting the safe and healthy development of emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy [14] Group 4 - A mechanism for future industry investment growth is to be established, focusing on sectors like biomanufacturing, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, and 6G [16] - The government aims to accelerate the high-quality development of key manufacturing industry chains and enhance the reconstruction of industrial foundations [18] Group 5 - The continuous promotion of "Artificial Intelligence+" actions aims to better integrate digital technology with manufacturing and market advantages, supporting the widespread application of large models and the development of smart connected new energy vehicles, AI smartphones, and intelligent manufacturing equipment [19][20] Group 6 - The government will implement actions to standardize enterprise-related law enforcement, focusing on rectifying irregular charges, fines, inspections, and closures [25] - The commitment to maintain openness regardless of external changes, steadily expanding institutional openness and orderly expanding autonomous and unilateral openness to promote reform and development [27] Group 7 - Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, with policies adjusted based on local conditions to release housing demand potential [29]

地方政府专项债券发行额度也将扩大，2025年定为4.4万亿元，比上年增加5000亿元。这些资金 重点用于投资建设、土地收储和收购存量商品房、消化地方政府拖欠企业账款等。推动其转化为 中低收入人群可负担住房，以改善房地产市场状况。 在金融政策方面，中国政府计划采取"适度宽松"的货币政策以支持经济增长，表示出在适当时机 下调存款准备金率和政策利率的方针。 中国全国人民代表大会召开（3月5日，目良友树 摄） 中国经济增长目标连续三年维持在"5%左右"。在美国特朗普政府加征关税等不利因素加剧的背景 下，中国政府计划扩大财政支出，以支撑经济增长。将赤字率提升至4.0%左右，高于2024年设 定的3.0%…… 第十四届全国人民代表大会第三次会议于3月5日上午在北京的人民大会堂开幕。国务院总理李强 在政府工作报告中宣布，2025年实际经济增长率目标仍定为"5%左右"，连续三年维持这一水平。 在美国特朗普政府加征关税等不利因素加剧的背景下，中国政府计划扩大财政支出，以支撑经济 增长。为此，将发行5000亿元国债，向国有大型银行注入公共资金，以防范房地产市场长期低迷 带来的金融风险。 李强在报告中表示将实施积极的财政政策，扩大 ...

Economic Overview - The GDP growth for 2024 is projected at around 5% with a previous year's growth of 5% [1] - The grain production has reached a new milestone of 1.4 trillion jin [1] - Urban employment increased by 12.56 million jobs [1] - The annual production of new energy vehicles surpassed 13 million units [1] Key Targets for the Year - The GDP growth target is set at approximately 5% [1] - Urban employment is expected to exceed 12 million [1] - Consumer price index is anticipated to rise by around 2% [1] - Grain production is targeted at around 1.4 trillion jin [1] - Energy consumption per unit of GDP is aimed to decrease by 3% [1] Fiscal and Investment Plans - The fiscal deficit rate is planned at around 4%, with a deficit scale increase of 1.6 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - Local government special bonds are proposed at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from last year [1] - The total new government debt scale is projected at 11.86 trillion yuan, up by 2.9 trillion yuan [1] - Special long-term bonds are planned for issuance at 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan [1] Consumption and Economic Development - A special action plan to boost consumption is to be implemented, including 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods [1] - New industries such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy are to be promoted for healthy development [1] - Focus on digital transformation in manufacturing and development of future industries like quantum technology and 6G [1] Education and Employment - Expansion of high school education capacity and gradual implementation of free preschool education [1] - Measures to enhance employment opportunities for college graduates and support for flexible employment [1] Housing and Urban Development - Continued efforts to stabilize the real estate market and improve housing conditions [1] - Promotion of urban renewal and renovation of old urban areas [1] Social Welfare and Healthcare - Increase in basic pension standards for urban and rural residents by 20 yuan [1] - Enhancement of healthcare funding with an increase in per capita financial subsidies for medical insurance and public health services [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Two Sessions in 2025 are expected to bring significant opportunities in the capital market, with analysts expressing optimism about China's asset attractiveness and focusing on economic growth targets, fiscal policy, and monetary policy [1] Macroeconomic Focus - Economic Growth: Most institutions predict a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a weighted average growth target calculated at 5.3% based on local targets [2] - Inflation Target: CPI targets are expected to be lowered to around 2% for 2025, down from previous years' targets of approximately 3% [3] Fiscal Policy Focus - Deficit Rate: Analysts anticipate an increase in the deficit rate to around 4% for 2025, with new special bond issuance expected to rise to approximately 4.2 to 4.5 trillion yuan [3] - Spending Direction: Fiscal policy is expected to focus on promoting consumption and driving technological innovation, with measures such as supporting trade-in programs to boost consumer spending [4] Monetary Policy Focus - Monetary Policy Stance: The prevailing view is that monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, but these actions may be delayed until after the Two Sessions [5][6] Capital Market Investment Opportunities - Technology Sector: The technology growth sector, particularly around AI and robotics, is expected to remain a hotspot, with increasing attractiveness of Chinese AI assets [6] - Consumer Sector: With enhanced fiscal policy efforts, consumer growth is anticipated to accelerate, supported by government measures like vehicle purchase subsidies [7] - Capital Market Reforms: The Two Sessions may lead to further improvements in the capital market's "1+N" institutional framework, promoting mergers and acquisitions and fostering a healthy market environment [8]

2025 年 03 月 02 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 PMI 节后反弹，投资好于消费 事件点评 PMI 点评（2025.2） 投资要点 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 LPR 四度持平，十债利率升至 1.7%，释放 何种信号？——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 95 期） 2025.2.21 信贷创纪录"开门红"，年初集中还是全年趋 高？——金融数据速评（2025.1）2025.2.14 内外形势有何变化，货币如何调整优化？— —《货币政策执行报告》（2024Q4）解读·周 报（第 94 期） 2025.2.14 核心通胀不降反升，美联储还能降息吗？— —美国 CPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.13 油价回升服务走高，CPI 稍好于预期—— CPI、PPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.9 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 节后 PMI 如期明显反弹，投资回暖快于消费。由于 1 月跌幅较深，1 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) will provide a detailed "construction plan" based on the goals set during the Central Economic Work Conference [1] - The focus will be on key economic indicators and development areas, especially as 2025 marks the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, leading to discussions on the next five-year plan [1] Group 2 - The GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to be around 5%, with suggestions to consider nominal GDP in the target setting [2][4] - The weighted average GDP target for 31 provinces is 5.3%, slightly down from 5.4% in 2024, indicating a cautious outlook [3] - 15 provinces have lowered their economic growth targets, accounting for 31.8% of the national GDP, reflecting a prudent approach to economic forecasting [3] Group 3 - The fiscal deficit rate may be raised to 4%, with an estimated budget deficit of approximately 5.6 trillion yuan, aimed at supporting necessary expenditures and stabilizing growth [5][6] - The focus on promoting domestic demand is crucial, with suggestions for issuing special bonds to support key projects and enhance fiscal capacity [6][7] Group 4 - The emphasis on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand is highlighted as a key priority, with a need to improve residents' income levels to stimulate consumption [9][10] - The government plans to shift fiscal spending from infrastructure to social welfare, aligning with the goal of enhancing consumer spending [11] Group 5 - Key reforms in fiscal and tax systems, as well as the promotion of the private economy, are anticipated to be addressed in the upcoming meetings [12][13] - The focus on the relationship between effective markets and proactive government intervention is crucial for establishing a balanced economic order [12] Group 6 - The future industries, particularly in technology and digital economy, are being prioritized, with local governments actively engaging in technological advancements [14][15] - New consumption policies are being developed to support innovative consumption patterns, including "AI + consumption" and health-related products [15][16]

Macro Economic Insights - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the 10-year Treasury yield should "naturally" decline, emphasizing the need for economic "privatization" through tariffs aimed at increasing industrial capacity and job creation[1] - Trump announced that Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to visit the U.S. for an agreement, while Russia demands Ukraine's military surrender and territorial concessions as conditions for a ceasefire[1] - Copper prices surged over 3% as Trump ordered an investigation into U.S. copper imports, indicating potential tariffs due to national security concerns[1] Commodity Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly lower, with crude oil down 2.19% and glass down 2.16%[2] - Basic metals saw declines, with aluminum down 1.21% and stainless steel down 0.91%[2] - Agricultural products also fell, with soybean meal down 1.34% and vegetable oil down 1.09%[2] Global Asset Performance Overview - NYMEX crude oil closed at $69.12, down 2.52% daily and 11.42% year-on-year[4] - LME copper closed at $9,395.00, down 1.13% daily but up 8.63% year-on-year[4] - COMEX gold closed at $2,928.60, down 1.36% daily but up 35.34% year-on-year[4] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is at 1.75%, down 0.57% daily and down 25.31% year-on-year[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.40%, down 0.02% daily and up 0.30% year-on-year[4] - The China-U.S. interest rate differential stands at -2.65, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01%[4] Currency and Forex Trends - The U.S. Dollar Index is at 106.28, down 0.36% daily and up 3.25% year-on-year[4] - The offshore RMB is trading at 7.25 against the U.S. dollar, showing a minor increase of 0.01%[4] - The Euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate is at 1.05, up 0.44% daily but down 3.77% year-on-year[4]

今晚写夜报前看major决赛的直播，这是cs全年最重要的比赛，冠军奖金50万美元。我从2000年就开始玩这游戏，24年了，一直到现在都经常和哥们组 排，但水平已经不行了，就纯娱乐。 决赛是俄罗斯的spirit对阵欧洲的faze，前面两张图打成1:1，最后决胜图是全世界玩家最熟悉的dust2。spirt依靠队内天才步枪手的发挥一度握有7个赛点， 顽强的faze硬生生从5:12追到了11:12，但最终还是输掉了最后一局。 真的刺激，我已经很久没看过这么让人窒息的决赛了，电子竞技的观赏性绝对超过了绝大多数的体育项目。 这次比赛最闪耀的mvp是一个17岁的俄罗斯少年donk，今年是他征战职业赛场的第一年，但就打出了全球top1的水平，赛场表现炸裂，他的六边形数据全 部"爆表"。 来，把周末值得说的事情捋一捋。 1、10年期国债活跃券收益率跌破1.8%关口，报1.78%，继续创历史新低。30年国债的收益率也随后跌破2%关口，报1.9999%。已经有几家券商研报判断 明年的逆回购利率会下跌40-50bp，至于房贷的利率降幅则要比这个更大。做出这些判断是有前提的，即中国经济确实需要进一步的宽松刺激，以及房价 依然还没有达到 ...