Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - For all the commodities in the report (cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, butadiene rubber), the current recommended operation is to stay on the sidelines due to various factors such as market uncertainties, demand - supply imbalances, and price fluctuations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined today, with general spot trading and stable basis. As of December, national commercial cotton inventory was 578.47 million tons, up 110.11 million tons month - on - month and 9.96 million tons year - on - year. By January 8, the cumulative processed Xinjiang cotton was 696.9 million tons, up 63.3 million tons year - on - year. Xinjiang's cotton planting area reduction policy was implemented, with the reduction lower than expected. Spinning mills' raw material demand is resilient, but downstream orders are general. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and it's advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Internationally, Brazil's mid - south production data in December was neutral. The current crushing season is ending, with seasonal declines in cane crushing and sugar production. Attention turns to next season's output forecast. Weather models suggest lower rainfall in Brazil's main producing areas in Q1. The sugar - alcohol ratio has dropped, and Brazil's sugar output in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices fluctuated. Sales data was relatively positive, but sales volume decreased due to market bearish sentiment. Although Guangxi has a strong production increase expectation in the 25/26 season, the production progress is slow. If output doesn't increase later, the futures price may rise. It's recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices are oscillating at a high level. In Gansu, merchants' purchasing enthusiasm is high, with good transactions. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable. During the Spring Festival stocking period, merchants mainly package their own supplies for the market, with less purchase of farmers' apples. Some merchants are looking for high - quality apples, but the supply is limited. As of January 15, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 655.57 million tons, down 7% year - on - year, and the destocking volume was 18 million tons, up 9.9% year - on - year. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. Apples' poor quality and high purchase price may affect the destocking speed. It's advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all declined. The domestic natural rubber spot price dropped, while the synthetic rubber spot price was stable. The overseas butadiene port price was stable, and Thailand's raw material market prices mostly rose. Globally, natural rubber supply is entering the reduction period, with China's production area fully stopped and Vietnam's gradually stopping. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased, with some plants under maintenance. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate also rose. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate continued to decline, with the finished product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises decreasing for all - steel tires and increasing for semi - steel tires. This week, Qingdao's natural rubber total inventory increased to 56.82 million tons. Last week, China's butadiene social inventory increased to 1.51 million tons, and this week, the upstream butadiene port inventory increased to 4.46 million tons. Overall, demand is slowly recovering, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, rubber inventory is rising, cost support is strong, and market sentiment is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures prices declined. Pulp is limited by weak downstream demand, and its short - term fundamentals are average. The spot price of coniferous pulp is 5450 yuan/ton, and that of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is 5300 yuan/ton. The price of broad - leaved pulp is 4700 yuan/ton. As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 201.4 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from the previous period and 0.3% month - on - month. The price difference between coniferous and broad - leaved pulp is narrowing, providing some support for coniferous pulp. Overseas prices of both coniferous and broad - leaved pulp have increased. Paper mills purchase pulp for immediate needs, and the increase in base paper prices is relatively weak. It's recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - Futures prices are oscillating. The spot price in Taicang Port increased by 10 yuan to 750 yuan/cubic meter. Overseas prices decreased, and domestic spot prices are weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease. As of January 9, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 57,500 cubic meters, up 1.77% week - on - week. Demand has decreased seasonally but is still high year - on - year. As of January 9, the total national port log inventory was 2.69 million cubic meters, up 0.75% month - on - month. The national log inventory is relatively low, with less inventory pressure. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It's recommended to wait and see [8]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 1 月 15 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.12%，报收 64.96 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.3%，报 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收 14810 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 5213 手至 84.24 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价 格指数 15615 元/吨，较前一日上涨 5 元/吨。国际市场方面，美国 CPI 数据公布后， 1 月不降息概率增加，美元指数重新站上 99。基本面角度来看，USDA1 月报告公 | | | | 布，环比调减 2025/26 年度美棉产量预期值，对美棉价格有一定支持。国内市场方 | | | 棉花 | 面，昨日郑棉振幅收窄，重心环比小幅上移。USDA1 月报中环比调增 2025/26 年 | 震荡 | | | 度中国棉花产量、消费量预期值，基本符合市场预期。基本面来看，纺织企业对 | | | | 于价格回落后的棉花表现出一定承接意愿，目前大中小型纺织企业原料库存储备 | | | | 差异相对较大，关注节前纺企补货动作。综合来看，短期郑棉或在当前位置有 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: The ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.03% to 64.93 cents per pound on Tuesday, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased 1.34% to 14,760 yuan per ton, with the main contract positions rising by 19,206 lots to 837,200 lots. The spot price index of Cotton 3128B was 15,610 yuan per ton, up 245 yuan from the previous day. Overseas geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and the U.S. CPI data did not cool more than expected, with the U.S. dollar index back above 99. Although U.S. cotton export shipments remain low, there is some room for imagination in U.S. cotton exports due to the price difference between Zhengzhou cotton and U.S. cotton, which may support U.S. cotton prices. After three consecutive days of decline in the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, it increased in volume yesterday. Textile enterprises showed some willingness to buy back cotton after the price decline. Currently, the raw material inventory reserves of large, medium, and small textile enterprises vary significantly. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton may face some divergence at the current level and mainly show wide - range fluctuations. In the long term, there are still things to look forward to on the policy side, and there may still be some upside space for cotton prices [2]. - **Sugar**: As of January 12, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 23.0955 million tons, a decrease of 5.7536 million tons or 19.94% compared with the same period last year; the sugar content in sugarcane was 11.77%, an increase of 0.02% compared with the same period last year; the sugar production rate was 9.403%, a decrease of 0.148% compared with the same period last year; the sugar production volume was 2.1717 million tons, a decrease of 0.5836 million tons or 21.18% compared with the same period last year. The spot quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups is in the range of 5,310 - 5,380 yuan per ton, with some prices down 10 yuan per ton; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups is 5,140 - 5,230 yuan per ton, with some prices down 10 yuan per ton. Thailand's sugar - crushing progress is still lower than the same period last year, but the decline is narrowing. In the future, as production enters the middle stage, it is still expected to recover further. In China, the pressure of increased production and pre - holiday restocking purchases have temporarily reached a balance. In the future, there is cost support at the bottom and hedging pressure at the top. It is expected that the futures price will continue to fluctuate before the end of restocking [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 15 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis is 1023 yuan, down 209 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,500 yuan per ton, down 90 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,783 yuan per ton, down 74 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 3 yuan, up 3 yuan; the main contract basis is 117 yuan, up 32 yuan. The spot price in Nanning is 5360 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the spot price in Liuzhou is 5370 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On January 13, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,410, an increase of 642 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1,707. The arrival prices of cotton in various regions of China were 15,500 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,727 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,891 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,908 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 49, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.8, down 0.2 from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 51, up 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 33, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Sugar**: On January 13, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5360 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5370 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 9,499, an increase of 560 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 2,069 [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: The report provides multiple charts including the closing price of the main cotton contract, the basis of the main cotton contract, the 3 - 5 spread of cotton, the internal - external price difference under the 1% tariff quota of cotton, the warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of cotton, and the China Cotton Price Index: 3218B [7][10][12]. - **Sugar**: The report provides multiple charts including the closing price of the main sugar contract, the basis of the main sugar contract, the 3 - 5 spread of sugar, and the warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of sugar [15][18]. 4. Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on sugar research; Zhang Linglu, an analyst in charge of futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in the fundamental research of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy [20][21][22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, the recent significant increase in Zhengzhou cotton futures is mainly driven by the expected reduction in domestic supply in 2026 under policy guidance, and the tight expectation of commercial inventory in the middle and late stages of the year due to stable consumption. However, the cotton yarn market is relatively calm, with limited price increases and poor new - order feedback. The downstream weaving industry has inventory - reduction pressure and is not actively replenishing stocks. The price increase space of cotton is restricted, and it may adjust next week, with limited downside space and support near the 20 - day moving average [1]. - For sugar, as of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Yunnan in the 2025/26 sugar - making season was 392,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,400 tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 281,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,300 tons. The domestic production and sales data basically met market expectations. The international sugar market is calm, and the ICE raw sugar futures price is range - bound. The Indian sugar production is progressing smoothly, but the current price limits its export willingness. The international sugar price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [1]. - The basis between sugar futures and spot has basically been repaired, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired. The near - month contracts still face large supply pressure, with weak short - term upward momentum. The large price difference between domestic and international markets may attract more imports, and it may be advisable to buy on dips near the out - of - quota import cost [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Topics Cotton - The core drivers of the recent significant increase in Zhengzhou cotton futures are the expected reduction in domestic supply in 2026 under policy guidance and the tight expectation of commercial inventory in the middle and late stages of the year due to stable consumption [1]. - The cotton yarn market is calm, with spinning enterprises slightly increasing prices, but new orders from downstream are not positive, and the actual price increase is limited. The downstream weaving industry has inventory - reduction pressure and is not actively replenishing stocks at the end of the year [1]. - The price increase space of cotton is restricted due to the ineffective transmission of upstream price increases to the downstream. It may adjust next week, with limited downside space and support near the 20 - day moving average [1]. Sugar - As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Yunnan in the 2025/26 sugar - making season was 392,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,400 tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 281,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,300 tons. The domestic production and sales data basically met market expectations [1]. - The international sugar market is calm, the ICE raw sugar futures price is range - bound, the Indian sugar production is progressing smoothly, but the current price limits its export willingness. The international sugar price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [1]. - The basis between sugar futures and spot has basically been repaired, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired. The near - month contracts still face large supply pressure, with weak short - term upward momentum. The large price difference between domestic and international markets may attract more imports, and it may be advisable to buy on dips near the out - of - quota import cost [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Cotton**: On Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.31% to 64.86 cents per pound, while the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 1.83% to 15,035 yuan per ton, with the main contract positions increasing by 9,611 lots to 925,500 lots. Overseas macro disturbances are continuous, and the U.S. cotton futures price rose and then fell. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton continued to increase positions and rise, but the increase rate slowed down, and it opened high and closed low at night. The recent warm market sentiment and strong expectations are the main driving factors, and there are still things to look forward to from the policy - making level. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton still has upward momentum, but there may be some differences at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, there may still be some room for the cotton price to rise. Future concerns include the pre - Spring Festival restocking actions of downstream textile enterprises, macro - level news, and the new round of cotton target price subsidy policy details usually announced around April 10th [2]. - **White Sugar**: As of December 31, 2025, Yunnan Province had crushed 3.461 million tons of sugarcane (2.8135 million tons in the same period of the previous season), produced 392,300 tons of sugar (326,900 tons in the same period of the previous season), with a sugar production rate of 11.34% (11.62% in the same period of the previous season), and produced 129 tons of alcohol (96 tons in the same period of the previous season). The cumulative sales of new sugar in Yunnan were 281,400 tons (267,100 tons in the same period last year), with a sugar sales rate of 71.72% (81.70% in the same period last year). The single - month sugar sales were 249,100 tons (234,400 tons in the same period last year), and the industrial inventory was 110,900 tons (59,800 tons in the same period last year). The spot price of sugar rose, and the northern hemisphere's sugarcane crushing is progressing steadily with no new dominant factors. The domestic financial market and commodities have generally risen recently, and the sugar price has rebounded slightly, and it will still be affected by this sentiment in the short - term, showing a strong - side oscillation. There is no obvious change in the fundamentals recently, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking continues with fair transactions [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.31% to 64.86 cents per pound, Zhengzhou cotton main contract rose 1.83% to 15,035 yuan per ton, positions increased by 9,611 lots to 925,500 lots. Market sentiment and policy expectations drive the price. Short - term upward momentum exists, but differences may occur at high levels. Medium - to - long - term upward space remains. Key concerns are downstream restocking, macro news, and subsidy policy details [2]. - **White Sugar**: Yunnan's sugar production and sales data are presented. Spot prices rose. The northern hemisphere's crushing is stable, and the domestic market sentiment boosts the sugar price. It will oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking continues [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 165 yuan, up 65 yuan; the main contract basis is 749 yuan, down 107 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,574 yuan, up 87 yuan; the national spot price is 15,784 yuan, up 73 yuan [3]. - **White Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 27 yuan, up 7 yuan; the main contract basis is 89 yuan, down 12 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 5,350 yuan, up 10 yuan; the Liuzhou spot price is 5,370 yuan, up 10 yuan [3]. Market Information - **Cotton**: On January 7, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 7,049, an increase of 225 from the previous trading day, with 2,347 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions are provided, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data are also given [4]. - **White Sugar**: On January 7, the white sugar spot price in Nanning was 5,350 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan; in Liuzhou, it was 5,370 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan. The white sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 6,005, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 4,563 valid forecasts [4][5]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipt and valid forecast of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipt and valid forecast of white sugar [7][9][11][13][15][16][18]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Resource - product research director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the white sugar industry, with many honors [20]. - **Zhang Linglu**: Resource - product analyst of Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, with many awards [21]. - **Sun Chengzhen**: Resource - product analyst of Everbright Futures Research Institute, engaged in the fundamental research of cotton and other varieties, with many awards [22].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.98%，报收 64.64 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.72%， | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 报收 14655 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 29136 手至 88.99 万手。国际市场方面， 海外宏观扰动不断，ICE 美棉期价重心小幅上移，美元指数仍在 98-99 区间震荡， 预计短期美棉仍震荡为主。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉期价冲高回落，主力合约持 仓持续增加。我们认为，预期偏强是近期行情驱动的主要因素之一。展望未来， 短期郑棉或在高位有一定分歧，但中长期来看，棉价上方或仍有一定空间。后续 | 偏强震 荡 | | | 关注点，一是下游纺织企业春节前是否会有新一轮补库需求；二是明年一季度， 宏观层面是否会降准降息，以及通常在 4 月 10 号左右公布的新一轮棉花目标价格 补贴政策细则。 | | | | 消息方面，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，印度 2025/26 榨季糖产量达到 1189.7 万吨， 较去年同期的 954 万吨增加近 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 棉花：当前市场基本面因素支撑有限，涨势主要受到资金炒作明年新疆种植 面积或将调减的相关政策消息影响。今天棉花冲高回落，保持偏强势走势。不过 在价格连续上涨之后，存在动能不足的情况。当前市场呈现"强预期与弱现实" 并存的博弈格局，棉价持续上涨的驱动因素已逐步减弱。随着棉价上涨超出轧花 厂加工成本，套保压力开始释放，贸易商裸头寸比例增加，对价格形成短期压制； 当前正处于纺织行业季节性淡季，下游棉纱价格难以跟上棉花上涨节奏，纱厂利 润受挤压，补库驱动趋弱。 价格高位偏强走势，但是风险逐渐堆积，不建议追高，建议等待盘面回调后 再逢低买入入为主。 白糖：根据印度糖和生物能源制造商协会（ISMA）的数据，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，印度 2025/26 榨季糖产量达到 1189.7 万吨，较去年同期的 954 万吨增 加近 25%；已开榨糖厂 504 家，较去年同期的 492 家增加 12 家。1 月 4 日，关税 配额内巴西进口糖即期到港成本 4049 元/吨（关税 15%），比广西糖价低 1301 元/吨；配额外巴西进口糖即期到港成本 5129 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. With India's export quota being lower than expected and low export possibility, Brazil's sugar production decreasing year - on - year but exports increasing, and Thailand's sugarcane suffering from diseases and farmers switching to cassava, short - term upward pressure on sugar prices has increased, and the price maintains an equilibrium [3]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the market is dominated by the strong expectation of tight supply - demand in the new year and a decline in next - year's production. However, due to uncertainties in the new - season target price subsidy policy, slow yarn sales, and expanding domestic - foreign cotton price differences, there is a need to guard against short - term cotton price corrections. In the medium - to - long - term, cotton prices may still rise if supply expectations remain unchanged [13]. - **Apples**: The overall transaction of late Fuji inventory is slow, with trading mainly on a need - to - basis. Different regions have different sales situations, such as Gansu focusing on packaging and shipping, Shaanxi having a weak sales atmosphere, and Shandong mainly exporting small fruits [17]. - **Red Dates**: The current new jujube harvest is basically completed. In the short term, jujube prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long term, the overall supply of new - year jujubes in China is relatively loose, and prices will continue to face downward pressure [26]. 3. Summary by Category Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, SR01 closed at 5264 with a daily decline of 0.13% and a weekly decline of 2.37%. Other contracts also showed different price changes and spreads [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of Nanning - SR01 on December 30, 2025, was 89, with a daily decline of 6 and a weekly increase of 75. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was - 51, with a daily decline of 6 and a weekly increase of 15. Other contracts also had corresponding basis data [8]. - **Import Prices**: On December 31, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4049, with a daily decline of 97 and a weekly decline of 54. The out - of - quota price was 5129, with a daily decline of 127 and a weekly decline of 70. Similar data was provided for Thai sugar imports [11]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On the reporting date, Cotton 01 closed at 14655, up 45 (0.31%); Cotton 05 closed at 14585, up 25 (0.17%); Cotton 09 closed at 14760, up 30 (0.2%); Yarn 01 closed at 20475, up 350 (1.74%); Yarn 05 closed at 20595, down 45 (- 0.22%); Yarn 09 closed at 20660, down 100% [14]. - **Spreads**: The cotton basis was 983, unchanged; Cotton 01 - 05 was 50, unchanged; Cotton 05 - 09 was - 170, unchanged; Cotton 09 - 01 was 120, unchanged; The flower - yarn spread was 6035, unchanged; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2621, up 12; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 70, unchanged [14]. Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On December 31, 2025, AP01 closed at 9950, up 3.02% (weekly increase of 2.96%); AP03 closed at 9300, down 0.16% (weekly increase of 0.5%); etc. The spot prices of different varieties in different regions remained stable [18]. - **Spreads and Other Data**: AP01 - 05 was 458, up 8.02% (weekly increase of 9.31%); the main contract basis was 41, down 224.24% (weekly decline of 119.62%); the delivery theoretical price was 9200, up 2.22% [18]. Red Dates No specific futures or spot price data is provided, but it is mentioned that the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term price will be under pressure due to loose supply [26].

软商品日报：近弱远强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 棉花：当前市场基本面因素支撑有限，涨势主要受到资金炒作明年新疆种植 面积或将调减的相关政策消息影响。有消息称，12 月 23 日自治区棉花产业发展 领导小组办公室召开了调减新疆棉花种植面积专题会议。目前市场尚无相关政策 确切消息，但若属实，明年新疆种植面积将大幅下降；当前也正值三年目标价格 补贴政策的重新评估阶段。 市场现货利多有限，远月炒作在拉动价格上涨后，短期上涨动能或面临枯竭， 存在回调风险，棉花基本面上想要有趋势性的行情驱动，仍需大量时间蓄能，建 议等待盘面回调后再介入。 【冠通期货研究报告】 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于棉花信息网、沐甜科技、 泛糖科技、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的期货交易咨询业务资格） 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任 何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。 我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。 本报告仅向特定客户传送 构和个人均不得 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：晨光微露 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 25 日 棉花：12 月 24 日，配额内（关税 1%）中等质量进口棉完税成本 12863 元/ 吨，比国产标准级棉花价格低 2408 元/吨,滑准税进口棉完税成本 13892 元/吨， 比国产棉价格低 1379 元/吨。全球棉花供需宽松，棉价震荡下跌，而国内已持续 上涨一个月，内外价差持续扩大。 现货宽松下，远月种植面积结构调整引发盘面出现一定反弹，而近月出口需 求转好，而供应压力最大阶段已经过去，这使得目前棉花市场稳中偏好，但是内 外棉价差扩大，后续关注进口棉是否会有增量，短期预估震荡偏强为主，上行空 间相对受限，中长期棉花存在供应端削减后的供需边际改善。 白糖：截至当前，广西 2025/26 榨季 73 家糖厂已全部开榨，同比减少 1 家； 日榨蔗能力约 59.2 万吨，同比减少 0.2 万吨。截至目前不完全统计，25/26 榨 季云南已开榨糖厂 35 家，同比增加 5 家；预计榨蔗能力 12.32 万吨/日，同比增 加 1.26 万吨/日。 外盘休市，内盘暂无参考标的下，全天白糖处于震荡中，国内供应端逐渐进 入压榨高峰，短期 ...