Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is cautiously bullish, and the same for silver. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels. The option strategy is to hold off [8]. Core View - The market still tends to bet that the Fed will continue the rate - cut process in October, and the logic of dollar asset substitution remains. Therefore, the gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 820 yuan/gram - 850 yuan/gram. For silver, due to the existence of loose macro - expectations and the narrowing expectation of the gold - silver ratio given industrial demand, the silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10100 yuan/kilogram - 10600 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - In terms of interest rates, St. Louis Fed President Mousalem emphasized that the current interest rate level is between "slightly restrictive and neutral", and the room for future rate cuts is limited. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he does not currently support further rate cuts because "inflation has remained too high for a long time". Fed Governor Milan said that unless the situation changes, he will continue to promote rate cuts and is willing to vote against again. Geopolitically, France officially recognized the State of Palestine, and 152 out of 193 UN member states have recognized Palestine, with only the US among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council not recognizing it [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 22, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 831.02 yuan/gram and closed at 846.50 yuan/gram, a 1.92% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 847.5 yuan/gram and closed at 850.98 yuan/gram, a 0.53% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9971.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10317.00 yuan/kilogram, a 3.47% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 789,654 lots, and the open interest was 504,051 lots. In the night session, it opened at 10276 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10348 yuan/kilogram, a 0.30% increase from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 22, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.147%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.546%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On September 22, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 1016 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by - 263 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 362,999 lots, a - 22.77% change from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai silver, in the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,340,506 lots, a - 21.56% change from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - For precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 994.56 tons on the previous day, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,369 tons, an increase of 164 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 22, 2025, in terms of domestic premiums, the domestic gold premium was - 19.58 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1087.95 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 82.05, a - 0.59% change from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 86.60, a - 1.29% change from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Data - On September 22, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 45,222 kilograms, a - 5.12% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 606,548 kilograms, a - 21.67% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,508 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 15,330 kilograms [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious and bullish rating for both gold and silver, and suggests shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels while pausing on options [8][9] Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate cut, gold prices are expected to oscillate, but the financial attribute premium remains, so it's advisable to buy on dips. Silver's financial attribute premium is weakened, but its industrial attribute provides support, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Both are likely to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [8] Market Analysis - US initial jobless claims last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, but continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market. The US government is promoting a $5 billion mineral investment fund [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 18, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 835.34 yuan/gram and closed at 824.10 yuan/gram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,924.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,835.00 yuan/kg, down 0.72% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 646,031 lots, and the open interest was 395,854 lots [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 18, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.101%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.544%, down 0.21 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On September 18, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, long positions changed by 129 lots, and short positions changed by 176 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 485,609 lots, a change of 32.56% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions changed by 2 lots, and short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,305,261 lots, a change of 0.13% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 975.66 tons, down 4.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,205.14 tons, up 15.53 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 18, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -8.58 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -823.15 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 83.79, down 0.60% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.92, a change of 2.72% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On September 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 49,462 kg, down 13.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 547,182 kg, down 26.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,776 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 10,320 kg [7] Strategy Recommendations - Gold: Cautiously bullish, buy on dips, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 815 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 9,800 yuan/kg and 10,050 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Pause [9]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The US economic data remains weak. The September New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply by 21 points to -8.7, far below the market expectation of 5. New orders and shipment indicators hit their lowest levels since April 2024 [1] - Chinese and US economic and trade leaders reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving TikTok - related problems, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 15, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 833.82 yuan/gram, closed at 831.60 yuan/gram, down 0.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 131,159 lots, and the open interest was 104,349 lots. In the night session, it closed at 839.08 yuan/gram, up 0.90% from the afternoon close [2] - On September 15, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 10,018 yuan/kg, closed at 10,017 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 356,647 lots, and the open interest was 204,407 lots. In the night session, it closed at 10,116 yuan/kg, up 0.99% from the afternoon close [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On September 15, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 4.036%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.503%, down 0.43 BP from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Positions and Volume Changes on SHFE - On September 15, 2025, in the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 607 lots, and the short positions changed by 145 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts decreased by 19.21% from the previous trading day [4] - In the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 1285 lots, and the short positions increased by 352 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts decreased by 43.41% from the previous trading day [4] Group 5: Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 976.8 tons, up 2.00 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,069.6 tons, down 67.78 tons from the previous trading day [5] Group 6: Precious Metal Arbitrage - On September 15, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 7.89 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 884.22 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on SHFE was about 83.02, down 0.13% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 86.24, down 1.25% from the previous trading day [6] Group 7: Fundamental Data - On September 15, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 33,778 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 380,008 kg, down 40.68% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 14,248 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 9,330 kg [7] Group 8: Strategies - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Weak US economic data may prompt the market to bet on a faster Fed rate - cut pace. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 815 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The macro - environment and industrial metal attributes resonate. The silver price is slightly stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow. The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,900 yuan/kg and 10,300 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels - Options: Put on hold [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [10] Core View of the Report - The CPI data has shown marginal warming, but the weak employment data has left the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September unchanged. It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the silver price is also expected to maintain a similar pattern. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow, and it is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The annual rate of the US CPI in August was 2.9%, the largest increase in 7 months; the monthly rate was 0.4%, the highest since January, higher than the expected 0.3%. The core CPI annual rate was 3.1%, in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 6 was 263,000, the highest since the week of October 23, 2021, with a market expectation of 235,000. The CME Fedwatch shows that the expectation of a rate cut has not wavered, with a 93.9% probability of a 25BP rate cut and a 6.1% probability of a 50BP rate cut at the September FOMC meeting [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On September 11, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 833.38 yuan/gram and closed at 830.78 yuan/gram, a change of -0.32% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on the day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session of the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 829.52 yuan/gram and closed at 829.26 yuan/gram, a -0.18% change from the previous afternoon's close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,803.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,798.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on the day was 301,985 lots, and the open interest was 203,343 lots. The night session of the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,777 yuan/kg and closed at 9,886 yuan/kg, a +0.90% change from the previous afternoon's close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 11, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.024%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.50%, a change of -0.41BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Long and Short Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On September 11, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 88 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 39 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 308,441 lots, a change of -41.25% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 660,300 lots, a change of -38.07% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - In terms of precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 977.95 tons the previous day, a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,069.6 tons, a decrease of 67.78 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 11, 2025, in terms of domestic premiums, the domestic gold premium was -9.05 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -865.00 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 84.79, a change of -0.34% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.48, a change of -0.11% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On the previous trading day (September 11, 2025), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 36,270 kg, a change of -26.22% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 304,080 kg, a change of -46.33% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 18,442 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 540 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Au2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 815 yuan/gram and 845 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Ag2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 9,600 yuan/kg and 10,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Loose policy expectations continue to consolidate, and precious metal prices fluctuate at high levels. The potential significant downward revision of US employment data may expose stagflation risks, pushing up the safe-haven premium of gold. Silver also benefits from loose expectations and its industrial attributes, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow [1][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and South Korea are deadlocked over the details of a $350 billion investment fund. South Korea cannot accept the same terms as Japan's $550 billion investment commitment. The US is expected to implement special measures to lower auto tariffs and reduce the burden of "reciprocal tariffs" on Japan by the 16th. The potential significant downward revision of US employment data in the 12 months up to March this year continues to consolidate expectations of loose monetary policy [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On September 9, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 827.50 yuan/gram and closed at 834.48 yuan/gram, a change of 1.41% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 832.60 yuan/gram, down 0.23% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,867.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,846.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.34% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 526,614 lots, and the open interest was 223,011 lots. The night session closed at 9,760 yuan/kilogram, down 0.87% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 9, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.088%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.525%, down 0.4 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On September 9, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 314 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 257 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 470,523 lots, a change of 6.97% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,067,357 lots, a change of -24.09% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The position of the gold ETF was 979.68 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,069.6 tons, down 67.78 tons from the previous trading day [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On September 9, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -20.29 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -931.33 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 84.75, a change of 1.07% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 87.65, a change of 0.80% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On September 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 62,614 kilograms, a change of -2.06% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 384,540 kilograms, a change of -36.44% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 22,024 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 480 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Weak employment data in the US has significantly increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, with a 99.4% chance of a rate cut in September according to Fedwatch [1] - The weakening employment data and rising easing expectations are favorable for gold prices, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow due to the rising rate cut expectations and the industrial attributes of silver in a pro-cyclical context [1][8] Market Analysis - In August, the ADP employment in the US increased by only 54,000, far lower than the expected 65,000, and the initial jobless claims last week rose by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June [1] - The ISM services PMI in the US in August was 52, with the new orders index jumping 5.7 points to 56, the largest increase since September last year [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 4, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 817.50 yuan/gram and closed at 812.98 yuan/gram, down 0.23% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was not provided, and the open interest was 129,725 lots [2] - The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,851.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,773.00 yuan/kg, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 788,714 lots, and the open interest was 248,568 lots [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 4, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.159%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day, and the spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 0.571%, down 0.81 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions increased by 246 lots and the short positions increased by 222 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 475,014 lots, up 13.86% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,537,386 lots, up 36.19% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 981.97 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings were 15,230.57 tons, down 50.83 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 4, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -16.54 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -913.19 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 83.19, up 0.25% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.56, up 0.85% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On September 4, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 73,492 kg, up 4.59% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 580,972 kg, up 55.37% from the previous trading day [7] - The delivery volume of gold was 18,670 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 24,270 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2510 contract may oscillate between 800 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2510 contract may oscillate between 9,600 yuan/kg and 10,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8]

Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The expectation of interest rate cuts continues to ferment, and the weak economic data boosts the market to bet on the Fed's monetary policy shift. Gold prices are expected to remain in a volatile and upward pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 800 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver currently shares the positive logic of loose expectations with gold. Along with the expectation of improved industrial demand after interest rate cuts, the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a volatile and upward pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,800 yuan/kilogram and 10,300 yuan/kilogram [8]. Market Analysis - Macro: The US economic Beige Book shows that consumer spending is flat or declining as many households' wages fail to keep up with rising prices. As tariffs are gradually passed through the economy, businesses in some regions have raised prices of goods and services to offset rising costs [1]. - Employment: The number of job openings in the US in July dropped to 7.181 million from a downwardly revised 7.36 million in June, hitting a 10 - month low and far below the expected 7.382 million [1]. - Fed: Fed Governor Waller said the Fed should start cutting interest rates this month and make multiple cuts in the coming months, but he is open to the specific pace of rate cuts, which will depend on future economic data [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 3, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 804.42 yuan/gram and closed at 814.88 yuan/gram, up 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 817.50 yuan/gram and closed at 821.68 yuan/gram, up 0.83% from the afternoon close [2]. - On September 3, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,766.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,820.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.04% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 627,101 lots, and the open interest was 270,592 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,851 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,918 yuan/kilogram, up 1.00% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 3, 2025, the yield on the 10 - year US Treasury note closed at 4.219%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year yields was 0.602%, down 0.43 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On September 3, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 400 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 403 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 417,207 lots, a change of 30.38% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,128,851 lots, a change of 16.61% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 984.26 tons yesterday, down 6.30 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,366.48 tons, up 56.48 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On September 3, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 21.99 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 885.80 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 82.98, a change of 1.35% from the previous trading day, and the foreign gold - silver ratio was 85.48, a change of 0.65% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On September 3, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 70,268 kilograms, a change of 35.49% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 373,924 kilograms, a change of - 15.92% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 17,146 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 15,030 kilograms [7]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of looser US monetary policy remains the main line for precious metals, providing strong price support. The market is waiting for US economic data to verify the urgency and pace of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical factors, such as the outcome of the US-Russia summit, also need attention. Gold and silver prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [1][8][9] Summary by Directory Strategy Summary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent called for an immediate new round of interest rate cuts, suggesting that US interest rates should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level. There is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut in September. There are 10 or 11 candidates for the Fed Chair. Trump may propose joint development of rare earth resources in Alaska and lift export bans on Russian aircraft parts during the summit. If the meeting goes poorly, the US may increase sanctions or impose secondary tariffs on Russia [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 13, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 777.28 yuan/gram and closed at 777.72 yuan/gram, up 0.22% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The overnight session closed at 777.10 yuan/gram, down 0.08% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,182.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,300.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.23% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 415,237 lots, and the open interest was 365,333 lots. The overnight session closed at 9,318 yuan/kilogram, up 0.19% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 13, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.24%, down 5 basis points from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.57%, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On August 13, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 24 lots, and short positions decreased by 60 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 268,832 lots, up 10.32% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 754 lots, and short positions decreased by 550 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 640,354 lots, up 46.37% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 964.22 tons, up 4.58 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,099.56 tons, up 40.96 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On August 13, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 9.96 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 641.74 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 83.63, down 1.00% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 88.82, down 0.13% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On August 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 32,602 kilograms, down 0.56% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 376,786 kilograms, up 24.67% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,014 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,070 kilograms [7] Strategy Recommendations - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 760 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,150 yuan/kilogram and 9,450 yuan/kilogram. Arbitrage strategy: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. Option strategy: Postpone [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Bullish, with the Au2510 contract expected to oscillate between 765 yuan/gram - 785 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2510 contract expected to oscillate between 9100 yuan/kilogram - 9350 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core View - The market's trading focus has shifted back to easing expectations. The cooling inflation and concerns about the US economy have strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, strongly supporting precious metal prices [1][8] - Although the Sino-US tariff risk has been temporarily resolved, the decline in tariff risk premium has limited impact on gold prices [8] - Silver's trading logic is in sync with gold, and with the rising rate cut expectation and the regression of the gold-silver ratio, silver prices are expected to continue rising [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation and Policy Expectations - In July, US CPI was 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3%. After the data release, the market expected a Fed rate cut in September with a probability over 90% [1] - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut rates, and Treasury Secretary suggested a 50-basis-point cut in September [1] 3.2 Tariff Progress - China and the US issued a joint statement. Both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12 [1] 3.3 Futures Market - On August 12, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.52 yuan/gram and closed at 776.04 yuan/gram, down 0.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots [2] - The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,180 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,187 yuan/kilogram, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 291,143 lots, and the open interest was 349,123 lots [2] 3.4 US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 12, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.29%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.57%, up 0.06% [3] 3.5 Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, the long position decreased by 81 lots, and the short position decreased by 42 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts decreased by 31.67% [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long position decreased by 68 lots, and the short position decreased by 70 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai silver contracts decreased by 26.01% [4] 3.6 ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings increased by 4.58 tons to 964.22 tons, and the silver ETF holdings increased by 40.96 tons to 15,099.56 tons [5] 3.7 Arbitrage and Premiums - On August 12, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.22 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -542.83 yuan/kilogram [6] - The ratio of the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver futures was about 84.47, down 0.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.72, up 0.86% [6] 3.8 Fundamental Data - On August 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 18.85%, and the trading volume of silver decreased by 4.85% [7] - The gold delivery volume was 8,250 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 24,750 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The main focus of precious metals is on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and rhythm. Multiple Fed officials are open to a shift to loose monetary policy, strongly supporting precious metal prices. If economic growth data resonates with the July US non-farm payrolls data, it may accelerate the Fed's monetary policy shift to a looser stance and further push up gold prices [8]. - The trading logic of silver is generally in sync with that of gold, with future loose expectations on the macro level as the main line, and its pricing weight is higher than the supply-demand fundamentals of silver. With the logic of the gold-silver ratio returning, silver prices are expected to continue the upward trend [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Summary - Macro: Fed officials' statements indicate that the expectation of a shift to loose monetary policy within the Fed is rising, which is expected to support precious metal prices. Geopolitical risk premium has a relatively low weight in precious metal pricing, and the short-term main line lies in the Fed's loose expectations and rhythm [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 6, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.80 yuan/gram and closed at 783.68 yuan/gram, a change of 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 781.96 yuan/gram, down 0.22% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,104.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,182.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 372,060 lots, and the open interest was 373,376 lots. The night session closed at 9,180 yuan/kg, down 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 6, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.22%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.53%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On August 6, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 249 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 336 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 239,517 lots, a change of -0.54% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,516 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,708 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 532,607 lots, a change of 17.04% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 952.79 tons, down 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,112.28 tons, up 67.8 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 6, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -10.74 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -706.17 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 85.35, a change of -1.02% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 90.05, a change of -0.41% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On August 6, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 29,226 kg, a change of -14.53% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 231,594 kg, a change of -14.47% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,764 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 15,690 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 8,950 yuan/kg and 9,450 yuan/kg [9]