Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The gold-silver ratio has broken through 50, indicating that precious metals are likely to lead industrial metals in accelerating price increases. Recent significant price increases in silver reflect a broader trend of rising physical metal prices as a response to the weakening trust in fiat currency systems [7][12] - The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with rising physical metal prices signaling a loss of confidence in existing fiat currency systems. This trend is expected to continue, with precious metals likely to set new historical price records in 2026 [12] - Zinc is viewed as an overlooked foundational material in the context of de-globalization, with favorable supply-demand dynamics suggesting continued price increases. The report highlights the potential for increased demand from re-industrialization efforts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the potential for precious metals to lead industrial metals in price increases, driven by a breakdown in the gold-silver ratio and a late-stage long-term debt cycle [7][12] - Specific investment opportunities include companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) and others in the precious metals sector [7] Zinc Sector - The report identifies zinc as a critical material in the context of re-industrialization, with supply constraints and increasing demand expected to drive prices higher [13] Aluminum Sector - The report highlights the competitive advantages of China's electrolytic aluminum industry, which is expected to benefit from geopolitical tensions and supply chain security [13] Steel Sector - The steel industry is currently facing weak fundamentals as it approaches the seasonal low period before the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [14] - Steel production and consumption metrics indicate a slight increase in iron output but a decrease in rebar demand, reflecting a mixed outlook for the sector [19][26] New Energy Metals - The report notes significant increases in lithium and cobalt prices, with production metrics showing substantial year-on-year growth in lithium carbonate output [37][46] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with production and sales figures indicating continued growth in the sector [41] Industrial Metals - The report discusses the overall upward trend in industrial metal prices, driven by political policy risks and supply reduction expectations [56] - Specific metrics indicate rising copper production and declining refining fees, suggesting a tightening supply environment [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Insights - The gold-silver ratio has broken through 50, indicating that precious metals are likely to lead industrial metals in accelerating price increases. Recent significant price increases in silver reflect a broader trend of rising physical metal prices as a response to the weakening trust in fiat currency systems [7][12] - The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with rising physical metal prices signaling a loss of confidence in existing fiat currency systems. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with precious metals likely to set new historical price records [12] - Zinc is identified as an overlooked material in the context of de-globalization, with favorable supply-demand dynamics suggesting continued price increases. The report highlights the potential for increased demand from re-industrialization efforts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the importance of precious metals in preserving wealth amid a declining trust in fiat currencies, recommending active investment in this sector [12] Zinc Sector - The report suggests that zinc, as a fundamental material for de-globalization, will see increased demand driven by infrastructure needs in emerging markets, despite current market skepticism [13] Aluminum Sector - The electrolytic aluminum industry in China is expected to benefit from enhanced supply chain security and competitive advantages, with a positive outlook for profitability and valuation [13] Steel Industry - The steel sector is currently facing weak fundamentals as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [14] - Steel production has seen a slight increase, but demand for rebar is weakening, indicating a mixed outlook for the sector [19] New Energy Metals - Lithium and carbonate prices have shown significant increases, with production levels rising sharply, indicating strong demand in the new energy vehicle sector [37][41] - The report notes a substantial increase in the production of lithium carbonate and hydroxide, reflecting the growing demand for electric vehicles [37] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that political risks and supply constraints are contributing to an overall increase in industrial metal prices, with copper production expected to rise despite declining refining fees [56][57]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On the 22nd, the aluminum price fluctuated narrowly with a decline followed by a rise. The main contract closed up 1.59% at 24,055 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 3,979 lots to 710,000 lots. The adjustment of aluminum price led to a slight improvement in the overall purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises, but they remained cautious. The spot premium/discount is expected to remain under pressure. The discount in East China was -150, -250 in Central China, and -115 in South China. [7] - A mine collapse in Guinea on the 21st caused casualties. Although it has not affected the production of the core bauxite mining areas in Guinea for the time being, it still had an emotional impact on the alumina market. On the 22nd, the futures price rebounded nearly 2% to 2,717 yuan/ton at a low level, but it is expected to mainly fluctuate widely at a low level under the suppression of the oversupply fundamentals. [7] - The supply side of electrolytic aluminum remained basically stable. The new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia continued to increase production, but the short - term increment was limited. High aluminum prices still suppressed the end - users, but benefiting from the inventory preparation demand for finished products as the Spring Festival approached, the demand side still had some resilience. The continuous inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots put some pressure on the market. Currently, aluminum prices are still dominated by macro and capital factors. Due to the fluctuations in macro - sentiment and the previous rapid rise, the short - term aluminum price adjustment should be treated with caution. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Aluminum price: The main contract of aluminum price rose 1.59% to 24,055 yuan/ton on the 22nd, with the total open interest decreasing by 3,979 lots to 710,000 lots. The adjustment of aluminum price improved the downstream purchasing sentiment slightly, but the spot premium/discount is under pressure. [7] - Alumina: The mine collapse in Guinea affected the alumina market sentiment. The futures price rebounded nearly 2% to 2,717 yuan/ton on the 22nd, and is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level due to the oversupply. [7] - Electrolytic aluminum supply and demand: The supply is basically stable with limited short - term increment. High prices suppress the end - users, but the demand has some resilience due to the Spring Festival inventory preparation. The inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots pressures the market. Aluminum prices are dominated by macro and capital factors, and short - term adjustment is expected. [7] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - Mine collapse in Guinea: On January 21, 2026, a mechanized mine in the Doko mining area of Siguiri Province, Guinea, collapsed, causing 6 miners to die. The accident is in the gold - mining area, about 800 kilometers away from the core bauxite mining area, and has not affected the bauxite production for the time being. [8][10] - "Aluminum replacing copper" in the air - conditioning industry: 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards. Some brand stores said they would launch aluminum - made household air - conditioning products as early as 2026, while others had no such plan. [10] - Production cut by Rio Tinto: Rio Tinto will cut the production of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% from October 2026 to extend its operation life to 2035. This will reduce the annual alumina production by about 1.2 million tons and affect about 180 jobs. [10] - Mining plan of Nalco: India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is also expanding the fifth production line of its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which will increase the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons. [10]

◎记者 霍星羽 1月22日，沪铝主力合约小幅上涨，截至日间收盘涨幅为0.59%，报24055元/吨。而在1月13日，该合约 一度冲高至25075元/吨，刷新上市以来最高纪录，印证了铝的强势表现。 虽然近期步入回调阶段，但自2025年12月中旬以来，铝价累计涨幅一度超12%，铝板块个股亦同步走 强，成为有色金属赛道中表现最亮眼的资产类别之一。 也有观点认为，对标铜铝比，铝价还有补涨潜力。按照1月22日铜铝主力合约日间收盘价计算，铜价是 铝价的4.2倍。另一位铝企高管对记者表示，铜铝比具有一定数据支撑。 一位私募从业人士对记者表示，此前铝的行情并非"补涨"。按照以往经验判断，铝的弹性偏弱，补涨力 度一般不会很强。近期带动铝价上涨的正是其内生原因，主要是宏观题材对铝价的带动。 这位私募人士说，铝与白银有相似之处。此前白银也被视作黄金的一种附属品，有时相较于黄金，投资 者更青睐白银的波动幅度和弹性，于是便参考黄金走势做多或做空白银。近期白银的涨势更多是内生因 素驱动。铝的这波行情同样来源于内生动力。 同时，铝的基本面也为其行情提供了较为坚实的支撑。中金有色团队分析认为，铝供给端弹性下降、脆 弱性上升。国内产能接近45 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: January 22, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the sharp decline of European and American stock markets led to a rise in market risk aversion, causing the aluminum price to drop to a minimum of 23,660 yuan/ton. However, during the domestic daytime, the market sentiment remained relatively high, and the aluminum price rebounded above 24,000 yuan. The main contract 2603 closed at 24,155 yuan, with a gain of 0.56%. The total open interest increased by 15,000 lots to 714,000 lots [7]. - The adjustment of aluminum price has driven the overall purchasing sentiment of downstream industries to warm up, but the overall attitude remains cautious. The spot premium is expected to continue to be under pressure. The premium in East China was -150 yuan, -250 yuan in Central China, and -115 yuan in South China [7]. - The prices of domestic and overseas ores continued to operate weakly at a low level. The oversupply pressure of alumina remained unchanged, and the price continued to decline [7]. - The supply side of electrolytic aluminum remained stable. The new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia continued to increase production, but the short-term increment was limited. The high aluminum price still inhibited the terminal demand. However, benefiting from the demand for finished product inventory preparation as the Spring Festival approached, the demand side still had a certain degree of resilience. The continuous inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots put some pressure on the market [7]. - Currently, the aluminum price is still dominated by macro and capital factors. Due to the fluctuation of macro sentiment and the previous rapid rise, the aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The aluminum price was affected by the sharp decline of European and American stock markets overnight, but rebounded during the domestic daytime. The main contract closed with a gain, and the open interest increased [7]. - The purchasing sentiment of downstream industries improved, but remained cautious. The spot premium was under pressure [7]. - The prices of domestic and overseas ores and alumina continued to decline [7]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum was stable, and the demand had some resilience. The inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots put pressure on the market [7]. - The short-term aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust [7]. 2. Industry News - Nineteen air-conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation work of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards, which triggered market discussions. Some brand stores said they would launch aluminum-made household air-conditioning products as early as 2026, while others had no such plan [8]. - Lizhong Group said that its production and operation had been stable in recent years, and the overall capacity utilization rate had gradually increased. The second phase of the 3.6 million ultra-lightweight aluminum alloy wheel project in its Mexican factory with a capacity of 1.8 million had been initially put into production. The third factory in Thailand with an annual production capacity of 3 million cast-rotated aluminum alloy wheels was expected to be put into production next year. The high-performance aluminum alloy new material projects newly built in Chongqing, Huaian, Changchun, Thailand and other places would be put into production successively from the fourth quarter of this year to next year [10]. - India's state-owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start the mining of the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 to support the expansion of its integrated aluminum business. The company has awarded the development and operation rights of the mine to Dilip Buildcon Ltd. To match the improvement of mining capacity, Nalco is expanding the fifth production line of its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which will increase the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market continued to show weak differentiation and volatility on January 20, with the metal sector generally rebounding, led by lithium carbonate which hit the daily limit with a 9% increase [1][2] - The comprehensive market price index closed at 1675.54 points, up 10.84 points or 0.65% from the previous trading day, while the commodity futures index closed at 2310.52 points, also up 14.95 points or 0.65% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Spot gold prices broke through the $4700 per ounce mark, reaching above $4720, driven by rising risk aversion due to escalating trade disputes between the U.S. and Europe [2] - The rise in gold prices also supported silver, platinum, and palladium prices [2] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate futures rebounded strongly, closing at a limit-up price with an increase of 8.99% [2] - Despite recent price declines and regulatory pressures, there is strong purchasing interest from downstream sectors, indicating potential for future price stability [2] Group 4: Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector experienced widespread declines, with coking coal and coke prices dropping by 4.50% and 3.54% respectively, leading the market downturn [4] - The supply pressure in the coking coal and coke markets remains significant, with increased imports and rising inventories contributing to a bearish outlook [4] Group 5: Other Chemical Products - Other chemical products also showed weakness, with glass and soda ash prices falling by 3.12% and 2% respectively, and several other chemicals declining by over 2% [5] - Aluminum oxide prices fell by 2.91%, returning below 2700 yuan per ton, as the market continues to face oversupply issues [5]

Group 1 - The company has confirmed price increases for some battery foil products with relevant customers, while other product prices are being finalized [2] - The company is currently not involved in the aluminum substitution for copper technology but will continue to monitor its development and market opportunities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is expected to experience strong support due to rigid supply constraints, emerging new demand in energy storage, and the historical high copper-aluminum ratio indicating significant potential for aluminum price increases [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of aluminum is expected to remain rigid in the coming years, with ongoing expectations of production cuts due to power disruptions in existing projects and slow release of new projects [1] - New demand fields for aluminum, such as aluminum substitutes for copper and energy storage, are emerging [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Conditions - Despite high aluminum prices leading to inventory accumulation domestically, the LME region is maintaining a destocking trend due to price differentials between domestic and international markets, keeping global aluminum inventories low and supporting prices [1] - The historical high copper-aluminum ratio continues to provide room for aluminum price increases [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The State Grid's fixed asset investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, providing long-term support for aluminum usage in power grids [1] - The outlook for electrolytic aluminum profits is positive, with expectations for sustained high profitability in the future [1] Group 4: ETF Information - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (930708), which includes listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals, covering major sectors such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Recently, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled, and the macro atmosphere has weakened marginally. The non - ferrous sector is adjusting at a high level. The Shanghai aluminum price is running around 24,000, with a significantly narrower fluctuation range. The downstream procurement sentiment has improved due to the falling aluminum price, but high prices still suppress consumption, and the spot premium is expected to be under pressure. The domestic northern bauxite is in the early stage of复产, and the production rhythm is expected to accelerate after the two sessions. The subsequent bauxite price may still have room to fall. The new domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are still ramping up production. The overseas Mozambique aluminum plant has stopped production, but it will remain at full - capacity operation in Q1. The short - term supply pressure has increased slightly but is limited. On the demand side, high aluminum prices still suppress the terminal, but the aluminum processing start - up rate has rebounded slightly week - on - week due to the approaching Spring Festival and finished - product stocking demand. Currently, the aluminum price is still dominated by the macro and capital sentiment. With the cooling of the macro - market sentiment and the large increase accumulated from the previous rapid rise, the short - term aluminum price has a downward adjustment demand [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestion - Macro environment: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled in January, and the market generally believes that there will be no interest - rate cut. The macro atmosphere has weakened marginally, and the non - ferrous sector is adjusting at a high level [8] - Aluminum price performance: On the 19th, the Shanghai aluminum price was running around 24,000, with a significantly narrower fluctuation range compared to the previous period [8] - Spot market: The downstream procurement sentiment has improved due to the falling aluminum price, but high prices still suppress consumption. The spot premium is expected to be under pressure. The East China discount is - 160, the Central China discount is - 290, and the South China discount is - 130 [8] - Supply side: The domestic northern bauxite is in the early stage of复产, and the production rhythm is expected to accelerate after the two sessions. Due to the compressed profits of alumina plants, the willingness to purchase bauxite at a premium is low, and the subsequent bauxite price may still have room to fall. The new domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are still ramping up production. The overseas Mozambique aluminum plant has stopped production, but it will remain at full - capacity operation in Q1. The short - term supply pressure has increased slightly but is limited. Although there are concerns about the shortage of power supply in Europe and the United States in the long term, it is not the dominant trading logic in the current market [8] - Demand side: High aluminum prices still suppress the terminal, but the aluminum processing start - up rate has rebounded slightly week - on - week due to the approaching Spring Festival and finished - product stocking demand [8] - Price trend: The aluminum price is still dominated by the macro and capital sentiment. With the cooling of the macro - market sentiment and the large increase accumulated from the previous rapid rise, the short - term aluminum price has a downward adjustment demand [8] Group 5: Industry News - "Aluminum replacing copper" in the air - conditioning industry: 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, have jointly launched the implementation of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards. The cost of copper in a household air - conditioner accounts for more than half. The price difference between copper and aluminum is about three times. Some brand stores said they will launch aluminum household air - conditioner products as early as 2026, while others said they have no such plan [9] - Expansion of Lizhong Group: The second - phase 1.8 million ultra - lightweight aluminum alloy wheels project of its Mexican factory has been initially put into production. The 3 - million - piece cast - spun aluminum alloy wheel production capacity of its third Thai aluminum alloy wheel factory is expected to be put into production next year. The high - performance aluminum alloy new material projects newly built in Chongqing, Huai'an, Changchun, Thailand, etc. will be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year, which will improve the company's global production capacity layout and competitiveness [10] - Expansion of Nalco: The Indian state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 to support its integrated aluminum business expansion. It has awarded the development and operation rights of the mine to Dilip Buildcon Ltd. To match the increased mining capacity, Nalco is expanding the fifth production line of its Damanjodi alumina plant, which will increase the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the aluminum industry, particularly the electrolytic aluminum market, highlighting the factors driving price increases and supply-demand dynamics [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Drivers**: The rise in non-ferrous metal prices is driven by multiple factors, including decreased supply elasticity, global power shortages, and emerging demands from AI data centers, which are reshaping base prices. Geopolitical risks are also prompting a reassessment of value, particularly for aluminum, which is significantly influenced by global green transitions and the AI revolution [1][3]. - **Supply-Demand Gap**: The electrolytic aluminum market is experiencing an expanding supply-demand gap, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies, suggesting that aluminum prices may reach new highs. Current cost levels remain low, enhancing profit margins, with average valuations for electrolytic aluminum companies around 10 times expected earnings for 2026, indicating good upside potential [1][5]. - **Global Supply Growth**: Global electrolytic aluminum supply growth is slowing, with Chinese production capacity reaching its peak and European and American regions facing energy constraints and investment cycle limitations. Projections indicate a global industrial growth rate of approximately 1.4% from 2025 to 2030, with China's average growth rate expected to be only 0.3% [1][8]. - **Challenges in Europe and America**: The growth of electrolytic aluminum capacity in Europe and America is hindered by insufficient power supply and difficulties in securing power contracts. The transition to carbon neutrality is limiting investments in high-energy-consuming industries, while rising electricity demand and aging power grids increase the risk of power outages [11][12]. - **Emerging Supply Regions**: Indonesia is identified as a key emerging supply region, but its development is constrained by Chinese policies limiting new coal-fired power plants abroad, leading to slow project progress. Significant expansion will require new power plants, which involve funding, cost, and timing challenges [14][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Selection Criteria**: Investment strategies should focus on companies that benefit from rising aluminum prices, have high market capitalization and elasticity, possess overseas expansion capabilities, and show strong growth potential. Companies like South America International, Zhongxing Industry, and Hongqiao are highlighted as potential investment targets [6][27]. - **Aluminum Demand Trends**: Traditional and emerging demands are expected to jointly drive aluminum market growth over the next five years. Traditional demand is projected to grow at 0.2%, while emerging demand is expected to grow at 12%, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [16]. - **Aluminum Substituting Copper**: The trend of aluminum replacing copper is gaining traction, particularly in the context of carbon neutrality. The demand for aluminum in sectors like new energy vehicles and home appliances is increasing, although high-end applications may take longer to transition due to performance requirements [17][18]. - **Cost Influences**: The cost of alumina is expected to fluctuate based on supply-demand dynamics and policy changes in key producing countries like Guinea, which significantly impacts the pricing of electrolytic aluminum [20][21]. - **Valuation Impact**: Current aluminum prices suggest that company valuations are below 10 times earnings. If prices rise to 30,000 yuan per ton, average valuations could compress to below 6 times, indicating a potential recovery space of over 70% [25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the electrolytic aluminum market and its future outlook.