2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司披露 24 年年报及 25 年一季报。1）24 年 实现营收 52.2 亿元，同比+5.3%；实现归母净利 13.4 亿元，同比 +5.7%。2）25Q1 实现营收 9.6 亿元，同比+2.7%；实现归母净利 1.9 亿元，同比+2.1%。业绩符合市场预期。 分产品看：1）24 年高档/中档分别实现营收 47.6/2.6 亿元，同比 +2%/+29%，其中销量同比+3%/+36%，吨价同比-1%/-5%，毛利率同 比+0.8pct/-2.4pct。2）25Q1 高档/中档分别实现营收 8.5/0.5 亿元，同比+7%/-34%。公司目前对产品战略再梳理，目标构建水 井坊+第一坊的双品牌体系，在水井坊品牌内部实行双子星策略、 打造与八号相衬映的第二大单品。 分渠道看：1）24 年新渠道/批发代理分别实现营收 5.3/45.0 亿元， 同比+10%/+2%，其中销量同比+23%/+4%，吨价同比-11%/-2%，毛 利率同比-1.1pct/+0.7pct。2）25Q1 新渠道/批发代理分别实现营 收 2.9/6.1 亿元，同比+184%/-20%。传新渠道大幅增长、占比提 升至 ...

2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司披露 24 年年报及 25 年一季报。1）24 年 实现营收 52.2 亿元，同比+5.3%；实现归母净利 13.4 亿元，同比 +5.7%。2）25Q1 实现营收 9.6 亿元，同比+2.7%；实现归母净利 1.9 亿元，同比+2.1%。业绩符合市场预期。 分产品看：1）24 年高档/中档分别实现营收 47.6/2.6 亿元，同比 +2%/+29%，其中销量同比+3%/+36%，吨价同比-1%/-5%，毛利率同 比+0.8pct/-2.4pct。2）25Q1 高档/中档分别实现营收 8.5/0.5 亿元，同比+7%/-34%。公司目前对产品战略再梳理，目标构建水 井坊+第一坊的双品牌体系，在水井坊品牌内部实行双子星策略、 打造与八号相衬映的第二大单品。 分渠道看：1）24 年新渠道/批发代理分别实现营收 5.3/45.0 亿元， 同比+10%/+2%，其中销量同比+23%/+4%，吨价同比-11%/-2%，毛 利率同比-1.1pct/+0.7pct。2）25Q1 新渠道/批发代理分别实现营 收 2.9/6.1 亿元，同比+184%/-20%。传新渠道大幅增长、占比提 升至 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 60.12 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion RMB for 2024, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.59 billion RMB, up 13.4% year-on-year. However, the Q1 2025 performance was below expectations due to intensified competition and weaker sales in the liquor market [1][4]. - The company is focusing on the mid-to-high-end liquor segment, particularly the "洞藏" series, which has seen a 13.8% increase in sales revenue for 2024. The strategy includes strengthening the domestic market while gradually expanding into external markets [1][2]. - The gross margin improved to 73.9% in 2024, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure upgrades. The net profit margin also increased to 35.3% in 2024 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.34 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%. The net profit was 2.59 billion RMB, reflecting a 13.4% increase. However, Q4 2024 revenue decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, and Q1 2025 revenue dropped by 12.4% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor sales accounted for 87.7% of its liquor business revenue, with a notable increase in the "洞藏" series [2]. Market Strategy - The company is implementing a "Cultural Welcoming" strategy, focusing on the mid-to-high-end "洞藏" series and enhancing its market presence in Anhui while expanding into other provinces [1][4]. - The number of distributors increased to 1,377, with 751 in the domestic market and 626 in external markets, indicating ongoing efforts to strengthen channel infrastructure [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.9%, and it improved to 76.5% in Q1 2025. The net profit margin also saw an increase to 40.5% in Q1 2025 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 3.34 RMB, with a target price based on a 18x PE ratio, leading to a target price of 60.12 RMB [4][6].

次高端产品占比提升，产品结构持续优化。分产品看，2024 年公司年份原浆/古井贡酒/黄鹤楼及其他产 品分别实现营收180.86/22.41/25.38亿元， 分别同比+17.31%/11.17%/15.08%； 营收占比分别为 79.10%/9.80%/11.10%，分别同比+0.59/-0.46/-0.13 个百分点，其中公司次高端主要抓手"年份原浆"系列 产品对收入的贡献占比持续提升，且其毛利率达86.12%，同比提升0.47 个百分点，产品结构优化已见 成效。年份原浆系列在次高端市场的持续突破，不仅增强了品牌高端形象，更带动了整体利润率提升。 我们认为，2025 年公司次高端产品占比有望延续抬升趋势。 事件概述 4月27日，公司发布2024年年报，2024年实现营业收入235.78亿元，同比增长16.41%；归母净利润55.17 亿元，同比增长20.22%。同时，今年一季度实现营业收入91.46亿元，同比增长10.38%；归母净利润 23.30亿元，同比增长12.78%。 盈利能力逐步增强，报表质量持续改善。公司2024年销售净利率与销售毛利率分别同比+0.86/+0.83个百 分点至24.20%/79 ...

4月27日，泸州老窖发布了2024年年报和2025年一季报，在白酒行业进入深度调整之际，依然保持了稳 健增长。 去年整个白酒行业进入调整期，渠道库存成为很多白酒公司需要面对的难题，泸州老窖提出"开瓶为 王"，以消费者开瓶扫码作为营销政策制定和营销动作考核的核心，此举有效解决了白酒行业压货、串 货等问题。维护价盘稳定、提升渠道利润已经成为公司核心任务，这一系列措施均有助于推动渠道的良 性发展。 从现金流角度来看，去年收现比则达到128.34%，经营活动现金流净流入191.82亿元，同比增长80%， 账面现金达到了335.78亿元。 在年报发布同时，董事会宣布，向全体股东每10股派发现金红利45.92元（含税），加上中期分红， 2024年度现金分红总额达到了87.58亿元，股利支付率提高到65%。而根据公司制定的《2024-2026年度 股东分红回报规划》：2024-2026年度，每年度现金分红总额占当年归母净利润比例分别不低于65%、 从关键指标来看，去年泸州老窖合同负债（预收账款）大幅增长，显示经销商信心较强，同时也表示公 司渠道发展良性。 在账面现金大幅增长的背景下，公司宣布进一步加大分红力度，将股利支付率 ...

投资评级与估值：结合宏观经济环境形势与公司经营目标，略下调25-26 年盈利预测，新增27 年盈利预 测，预测25-27 年归母净利润分别为332.8、346.5、360 亿（25-26 年前次为340.7、358.6 亿元），同比 增长4.5%、4.1%和3.9%，当前股价对应25-27 年PE分别为15x、14x、14x，维持买入评级。25 年以来公 司改革持续推进，产品端控货挺价去库，渠道端优化结构。中长期来看，五粮液仍是千元价格带第一品 牌，品牌力强，叠加公司自身改革动力，行业集中度提升背景下，公司中长期仍有望实现稳定增长。 2024 年酒类营收831.3 亿，同比增长8.74%。五粮液酒收入678.8 亿，同比增长8.07%，销量4.14 万吨， 同比增长7.06%，吨酒价格164 万元，同比增长0.94%，普五增长保持稳健，1618 及低度五粮液协同带 来增量。24 年系列酒收入152.5 亿，同比增长11.8%，销量120.6 万吨，同比增长0.12%，吨酒价格12.7 万元，同比增长11.7%。宴席市场精准发力，主品牌宴席活动同比增长30%，浓香酒宴席活动同比增长 52%。分区域看，24年强势 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected relative price increase of 5% to 15% over the next six months compared to the market index [5][10][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight miss on earnings expectations, with a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 36.940 billion yuan, a 6.05% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.860 billion yuan, up 5.80% year-on-year [2][10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 31.69 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 12.3 billion yuan, which aligns with its shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, increasing the cash dividend ratio to 70% compared to 2023 [2][10]. - The report highlights a decline in the growth rate of liquor sales, with the core product's sales volume increasing by 7.06% in 2024, while other products saw a minimal growth of 0.12%. The gross margin for the main product improved to 87.72% [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 77.06%, with sales expenses exceeding 10 billion yuan for the first time, leading to a sales expense ratio increase to 11.99%. The net profit margin was recorded at 37.22%, a slight decline of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year [4][10]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a steady growth trajectory, with expected net profits of 33.606 billion yuan in 2025, 35.892 billion yuan in 2026, and 38.554 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 5.50%, 6.80%, and 7.42% respectively [5][10]. - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) to increase from 8.21 yuan in 2024 to 9.93 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 15.73 to 12.99 over the same period [5][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 89.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.44% [7] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.80% [5][7] - The company aims to maintain a steady growth trajectory in 2025, focusing on enhancing brand value and market share [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 93.76 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.1% [6] - Net profit forecast for 2025 is 33.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.5% [6] - Earnings per share for 2025 is projected to be 8.57 yuan [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to be around 77.3% for 2025 [6] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 20.0% for 2025 [6] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's liquor revenue was 67.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.07%, with a sales volume of 41,400 tons [7] - The average price per ton of liquor was 1.64 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.94% [7] - The company’s series liquor revenue reached 15.25 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company remains the leading brand in the 1,000 yuan price segment, with strong brand power [7] - The company is focusing on product control and price stability, optimizing its distribution channels [7]