北京时间1月30日晚间，特朗普正式提名凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔，出任第17任美联储主席。 沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场， 但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。 一图速览—— 第四级经 策划| 明智 制图|方舟 政治主张 沃什被市场认为是"鹰派中的温和派"。 他主张"缩表结合谨慎降息"的策略组合,通过 缩减7.7万亿美元的资产负债表规模(QT),为 降低联邦基金利率创造空间。 2025年12月,他在与特朗普的会面中承诺支持 降息,但其历史立场与当前的主张存在明显矛 盾。这种立场转变被市场解读为"为迎合特朗普 而做出的政治妥协"。 QE,大规模购债 2021年-2023年 抗通胀激进紧缩 2021年底启动Taper (缩减购债) 2022年3月开启加息周期,累计加息 525个基点 2022年6月启动量化紧缩,缩减资 产负债表 2024-2025年 政策转向宽松 2024年9月启动降息周期，2025 年9-12月三次降息累计75个基点 2025年12月1日结束缩表 市场预计,他可能支持特朗普政府对美联储进 行一系列改革。 制图 | "晓数点"工作 ...

1月29日晚间，特朗普说要在北京时间30日晚间宣布新的美联储主席，让人大跌眼镜的是，之前呼声最 高的鸽派候选人可能出局，取而代之的是鹰派（紧缩派）代表人物，美联储理事凯文·沃什！！ 私交与利益纽带：岳父金主 + 政策军师 沃什的岳父是亿万富翁罗纳德・兰黛，是特朗普在沃顿商学院的同学，长期为特朗普提供政治资金支 持，这条 "裙带关系" 成为两人早期建立信任的关键桥梁，也让沃什在特朗普圈子中获得天然好感。 文章来自公众号：懒人财知道 关注免费领取全球研报特权 金价破5500美元后"闪崩"？白银单月飙升65%又大跌：是倒车接人，还是高位站岗？ 就在今晚！美国将公告新的美联储主席，做完的疯狂下杀，就是因为意外的出现了一个"鹰派"美联储主 席？就在今晚，关注我寻找答案。 特朗普首任期遴选美联储主席时，面试了沃什，但最终选择鲍威尔。这次 "擦肩而过" 成为两人关系的 重要节点，特朗普后来公开后悔这一选择，为 2026 年提名埋下伏笔。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 过渡团队的 "自己人"：沃什曾为特朗普 2016 年总统过渡团队提供经济政策建议，早早嵌入特朗普的核 心决策圈，被视为 " ...

美国《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普的高级助手已被告知沃什将获提名。特朗普29日早些时候表示，将 于下周宣布下一任美联储主席人选，但在当晚与沃什会面后，决定将宣布时间提前至30日上午。 多家外媒30日报道，美国总统特朗普可能准备提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文·沃什出任下一任美 联储主席。 英国《金融时报》当天援引三名消息人士的话报道，特朗普准备提名沃什接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔。 另据美国彭博社援引消息人士的话报道，白宫正在为相关提名做准备。 来源｜新华社 编辑 ｜瑜见 （图片来自央视新闻） 特朗普在首个总统任期内提名鲍威尔为美联储主席。当时，鲍威尔与沃什均为特朗普考虑的人选，但鲍 威尔最终获得提名。 沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立 场，但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。 ...

沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场， 但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。（完） 美国《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普的高级助手已被告知沃什将获提名。特朗普29日早些时候表示，将于 下周宣布下一任美联储主席人选，但在当晚与沃什会面后，决定将宣布时间提前至30日上午。 特朗普在首个总统任期内提名鲍威尔为美联储主席。当时，鲍威尔与沃什均为特朗普考虑的人选，但鲍 威尔最终获得提名。 新华社北京1月30日电 多家外媒30日报道，美国总统特朗普可能准备提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事 凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席。 英国《金融时报》当天援引三名消息人士的话报道，特朗普准备提名沃什接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔。 另据美国彭博社援引消息人士的话报道，白宫正在为相关提名做准备。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential successors to the Federal Reserve Chair position, focusing on Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett, highlighting their differing monetary policy philosophies and the implications for the U.S. economy in 2025 amid inflation pressures, geopolitical uncertainties, and technological changes [4][5][15]. Candidate Backgrounds - Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, is known for his hawkish stance and experience in managing financial crises, advocating for market discipline and fiscal sustainability [10]. - Kevin Hassett, a former White House economic advisor, is recognized for his dovish perspective and pro-growth policies, emphasizing tax incentives and regulatory certainty [10]. Monetary Policy Perspectives - Warsh believes inflation is a result of policy choices rather than just economic growth, advocating for a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet and a return to market discipline [12]. - Hassett supports a more aggressive monetary policy, suggesting rapid interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth, while criticizing the Fed for potential partisan biases [13]. Market Implications - If Warsh is appointed, the Fed may adopt a more cautious monetary policy, potentially leading to slower economic growth and increased market volatility, but promoting healthier long-term valuations [14]. - Conversely, Hassett's leadership could result in quicker interest rate cuts, benefiting sectors sensitive to borrowing, such as technology and real estate, but risking higher deficits and inflation expectations [14]. Public Sentiment and Predictions - As of December 13, 2025, public sentiment shows Hassett initially leading, but Warsh's chances increased significantly following Trump's endorsement, with Warsh's probability rising from 15% to 37-40% [16]. - Prediction markets indicate Hassett's probability at around 49%, though the gap is narrowing [16]. Conclusion - The appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chair will significantly impact the U.S. economic trajectory, with Warsh potentially ushering in a period of disciplined stability, while Hassett may lead to more aggressive growth-oriented policies [22].

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump raises questions about the future independence of the Fed and its monetary policy direction [1][15]. Group 1: Hassett's Background and Rise - Kevin Hassett, a 62-year-old conservative economist, has gained prominence in Washington due to his loyalty to Trump and pragmatic policy views [3]. - Hassett's upbringing in Greenfield, Massachusetts, and his academic achievements laid the foundation for his career in economics [4]. - He graduated with a 3.9 GPA from Swarthmore College, where he was influenced by Keynesian and supply-side economics [4][5]. Group 2: Career Path - After earning his PhD from the University of Pennsylvania, Hassett worked as a research assistant at the Federal Reserve Board, which sparked his interest in monetary policy [5]. - His career transitioned from academia to policy-making, serving as a professor and later joining the American Enterprise Institute, where he led research on various economic issues [6][8]. - Hassett's experience as an economic advisor during multiple presidential campaigns, including Trump's, has solidified his reputation within the Republican economic circle [9]. Group 3: Economic Views and Policy Implications - Hassett's economic philosophy is rooted in supply-side economics, advocating for tax cuts, deregulation, and trade protection to achieve high growth [11]. - He supports a more transparent Federal Reserve and has criticized its operations as "black box" practices, advocating for congressional oversight [11][13]. - Unlike current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Hassett favors a dovish monetary policy, suggesting quicker interest rate cuts to avoid economic downturns [11][13]. Group 4: Relationship with Trump and Future Prospects - Hassett's close relationship with Trump, characterized by loyalty and shared economic views, positions him as a favored candidate for the Fed chairmanship [14]. - His experience and understanding of the Fed's internal workings make him a strong contender compared to other candidates [14]. - If appointed, Hassett's leadership could signify a shift in the Fed's role from a technical institution to a policy tool aligned with Trump's agenda [15].

Group 1 - Spot bitcoin ETFs experienced their first daily outflows in over a week, with a net outflow of $51.28 million, breaking a seven-day inflow streak that had accumulated nearly $3 billion [1] - Assets under management for bitcoin ETFs remain above $150 billion, despite the recent outflows [1] - The Federal Reserve's cautious outlook on future policy, highlighted by Chair Jerome Powell, has shifted market sentiment, leading to a pullback in risk assets [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first cut of the year [2] - Updated projections from the Fed indicated only two more rate cuts in 2025 and fewer in 2026 than the market had anticipated [2] - Powell's warnings about "elevated" inflation and rising "downside risks" to employment contributed to a hawkish interpretation of the rate cut, affecting market confidence [3] Group 3 - Ethereum ETFs also faced redemptions, with net outflows of $1.89 million following a previous exit of $61.7 million [3] - Cryptocurrency prices showed slight increases, with Bitcoin rising approximately 0.3% and Ether increasing by 1.7% in the last 24 hours [4] - The broader CoinDesk 20 index rose by 2%, indicating a general positive movement in the cryptocurrency market [4]

Group 1 - Current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing pressure from President Trump, who is considering nominating a successor to weaken Powell's influence before his term ends in May 2024 [1] - Two Republican candidates named "Kevin" are competing for the next Federal Reserve Chair position, with Kevin Hassett emerging as a strong contender against Kevin Warsh [1][3] - Hassett has shifted his stance and is now open to accepting the Federal Reserve Chair position, having met with Trump multiple times in June [3] Group 2 - Hassett has become a vocal critic of Powell, accusing him of making decisions based on partisan bias rather than economic data [3] - Warsh, who has been a candidate for the position for years, is also actively seeking meetings to discuss the role, indicating his continued interest [3][4] - Warsh is attempting to pivot from his previous support for hawkish monetary policy to a more collaborative approach with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [4] Group 3 - Warsh's connections in the financial elite and his media presence may give him an edge over Hassett, who has been more aligned with Trump's inner circle [5] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is in a unique position to influence the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair, as Trump has expressed interest in having him take on both roles [5]

Group 1 - The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair is intensifying, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh as the main contenders [1][2] - Hassett's momentum is rising, having met with President Trump multiple times, while Warsh faces skepticism due to his earlier popularity and "hawkish" stance [2][4] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is also rumored to be interested in the Fed Chair position, with suggestions of him potentially holding both roles [2][9] Group 2 - Hassett, a seasoned economist with a strong academic background, has shifted his stance to align more closely with Trump's views, becoming a vocal critic of current Fed Chair Powell [3][4][5] - Warsh, with a high-profile financial background, is attempting to reshape his "hawkish" image and has proposed aggressive rate cuts in collaboration with Mnuchin [6][7] - Mnuchin's dual role as an advisor and potential candidate adds complexity to the selection process, with his comments possibly exacerbating divisions within the Fed [8][9] Group 3 - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has fueled the search for a new Fed Chair, emphasizing the need for rapid interest rate cuts to support economic growth [10][11] - The expectation for the next Chair to prioritize rate cuts is clearer than during Trump's first term, raising concerns about the potential impact on Fed independence and inflation expectations [11]

Group 1 - The US stock market has experienced fluctuations due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's decisions, with the Dow Jones remaining within a range of 42,700 to 42,600 this week [1] - The Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy stance is interpreted as hawkish, maintaining the overnight interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, with a warning from Chairman Powell about potential inflation from tariffs [3] - The Fed's economic forecast indicates a mild stagflation scenario, with expected economic growth slowing to 1.4% this year, an unemployment rate of 4.5%, and inflation reaching 3% [3] Group 2 - Current stock risk exposure is high enough to trigger significant risk-averse actions, while also being low enough to encourage buying on dips, indicating that any minor event could lead to volatility in the US stock market [4] - Hedge funds continued to buy stocks last week, but at a slower pace, while mutual funds saw an outflow of $10 billion, indicating a cautious market sentiment [6] - The upcoming rebalancing by pension and target-date funds, which are expected to sell $89 billion worth of stocks, may further weigh on the market in the coming days [4] Group 3 - As trade tensions ease, there is a partial recovery in US economic confidence, but investors are advised to reconsider geopolitical issues before increasing positions, as the Middle East situation could catalyze further market volatility [7] - The potential for rising energy prices due to prolonged Middle Eastern conflicts could exacerbate inflation fears, negatively impacting the US stock market [7]