1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - Steel: The rebar market showed narrow - range consolidation. With production increasing, inventory decline narrowing, and apparent demand falling, the short - term outlook is for continued narrow - range movement. The spot market demand has some resilience but is gradually weakening [1]. - Iron Ore: The futures price is expected to show a weakening and volatile trend. Supply has increased significantly, while iron - making output has decreased, and there are mixed factors in the market [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The downstream procurement is slow, and the market confidence is low [1]. - Coke: The coke market is likely to experience weak and volatile trends. Production is at a high level, and demand may decline marginally as the temperature rises [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The futures price of manganese silicon increased significantly. Although there are news - driven factors, the sustainability is expected to be relatively weak [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market is expected to move in a narrow range at a low level. Terminal demand is weak, and there is limited upward driving force [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3061 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with an increase of 0.52 million lots in positions. The national rebar production increased by 4.95 tons week - on - week to 231.48 tons, social inventory decreased by 18.42 tons to 416.46 tons, and factory inventory increased by 2.77 tons to 187.76 tons. Apparent demand fell by 13.16 tons to 247.13 tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 727 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. Global iron ore shipments increased significantly, iron - making output decreased by 1.17 tons to 243.6 tons, and port and steel mill inventories decreased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 827.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.5 yuan/ton or 1.72% from the previous trading day. The downstream procurement was slow, and the market confidence was weak [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1406.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous trading day. The coke production was at a high level, and demand may decline marginally [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract of manganese silicon futures closed at 5998 yuan/ton, a 3.84% increase. The South African government's policy may lead to a reduction in manganese ore shipments, but the sustainability of the price increase is weak [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5622 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase. Terminal demand is weak, and the steel mill's procurement price decreased [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 20.0, with a 4.0 increase; the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 35.5, unchanged [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 129.0, unchanged; the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 79.0, a decrease of 4.0 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The Shanghai rebar spot price was 3190.0, unchanged; the PB powder spot price at Rizhao Port was 760.0, a decrease of 5.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][12][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the spreads of 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the spreads and ratios such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [40][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: There are charts showing the rebar main contract's on - paper profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [45][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the coal futures field [52]. - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 黑色商品日报 | | 市场仍在观望，首询价格 5700 元/吨，较上月环比下降 250 元/吨。锰矿端近期也有新消息传出，South32 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 发布关于 GEMCO 恢复澳大利亚锰矿石出口销售的声明，第一批锰矿正在装船，预计几天后离港发运， | | | | 近期国内锰矿价格相对稳定。综合来看，近期市场在观望主流钢招定价情况，持续上行驱动有限，短期仍 | | | | 以震荡看待。 | | | | 硅铁：周二，硅铁期价震荡走弱，主力合约报收 5638 元/吨，环比下跌 0.14%，主力合约持仓环比增加 1111 | | | | 手。72 号硅铁汇总价格约 5350-5400 元/吨，宁夏地区较前一日下调 50 元/吨。昨日黑色板块整体走势偏 | | | 硅铁 | 弱，硅铁期价高开低走，尾盘小幅收跌。硅铁主流钢招价格敲定，最终 75B 采购价格 5800 元/吨，较首询 | 震荡 | | | 价格小幅上调，但较 4 月定价下跌 150 元/吨，5 月采购数量 2135 吨，较上轮增 435 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3069 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 弱势整理 | | | 下跌 13 元/吨，跌幅为 0.42%，持仓增加 4 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | | 格持平于 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3140 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.81 万吨。据 | | | | 国家统计局数据，1—4 月全国固定资产投资累计同比增长 4.0%，增速较一季度下行 0.2 个百分点。分领 | | | | 域看，基础设施投资同比增长 5.8%，增速较一季度持平；制造业投资增长 8.8%，增速较一季度回落 0.3 个 | | | | 百分点，房地产开发投资下降 10.3%，降幅较一季度扩大 0.4 个百分点。从房地产分项指标来看，4 月房地 | | | | 产开发投资、销售、新开工、施工和竣工同比分别下降 11.53%、下降 2.91%、 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报 | | 仍相对有限，一定程度上会拖累锰硅价格。成本端，港口锰矿价格仍在持续回升，钢联数据显示截止 5 月 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 15 日，澳矿价格环比上调 1 元/吨度至 41.5 元/吨度，加蓬矿价格环比上调 0.2 元/吨度至 37.5 元/吨度， | | | | 南非半碳酸价格环比上调 0.3 元/吨度至 34 元/吨度，成本端有一定支撑。综合来看，近期在宏观情绪带 | | | | 动叠加市场消息刺激下锰硅期价重心有一定抬升，但能否持续还是要关注终端需求表现，短期关注主流钢 | | | | 招定价情况，预计短期区间震荡运行为主。 | | | | 硅铁：周四，硅铁期价窄幅震荡，主力合约报收 5660 元/吨，环比下跌 0.14%，主力合约持仓环比下降 5280 | | | | 手。72 号硅铁汇总价格约 5350-5500 元/吨， 内蒙古、宁夏地区较前一日持平，甘肃、青海地区较前一日 | | | | 下调 50 元/吨。昨日黑色板块整体走势稍有分化，硅铁期价重心小幅下移。主流钢招最终定价仍未公布， | | | | 河北某大型钢厂 5 月硅铁招 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 15 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面再次拉涨，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3127 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 48 元/吨，涨幅为 1.56%，持仓减少 3.96 万手。现货价格上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | | | | 上涨 30 元/吨至 2980 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 30 元/吨至 3190 元/吨，全国建材成交量 11.98 | | | | 万吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量下降 0.21 万吨至 426.77 万吨，社库下降 22.48 万吨至 615.44 万 | | | | 吨，厂库下降 4.73 万吨至 315.72 万吨，建材表需增加 10.35 万吨至 453.98 万吨。建材产量略有回落，库 | | | | 存降幅扩大，表需回升，数据表现有所改善。另据央行数据，4 月末 M2 同比增长 8%，M1 同比增长 12%。 | | | | 4 月份社会融资规模增量为 1.16 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅震荡，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3079 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 3 元/吨，跌幅为 0.1%，持仓减少 2.93 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | 钢材 | 格下跌 20 元/吨至 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3160 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.78 万吨。中 | 低位整理 | | | 美经贸谈判达成重要共识，对市场情绪形成一定提振。不过目前螺纹现货需求逐步有弱，钢厂出口接单难 | | | | 度也加大，市场供需基本面有所承压。预计短期螺纹盘面仍将低位整理运行。 | | | | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所下跌，收于 714.5 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌 4 元/吨，跌幅为 0.56%，成交 43 万手，增仓 1 万手。 港口现货价格有所下跌，日照港 PB 粉 765 元/吨下 | | | 铁矿石 | 跌 4 元/吨，卡 ...

Research Ratings for the Industry No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The rebar futures market declined yesterday. Spot prices also dropped, and trading volume decreased. Although the current supply - demand situation of rebar has improved, the impact of tariff policies on steel exports will gradually emerge, and the decline in cold - rolled demand may spread to hot - rolled products. There are also rumors about crude steel production cuts, which affect market sentiment. It is expected that the rebar futures market will remain in a low - level consolidation in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract declined yesterday. Supply has increased significantly, while demand, represented by hot metal production, has also risen. With the increase in port and steel mill inventories, and under the influence of long - and short - term factors, the iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to information related to crude steel production cuts [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market declined yesterday. The domestic supply is stable, and downstream inventory preparation for the May Day holiday has been completed. Traders are mostly on the sidelines, and spot purchases are scarce. Although the operating enthusiasm of coking enterprises has slightly increased, their coking coal inventory is sufficient. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and more support policies may be implemented in the second quarter [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market declined yesterday. The production of coking enterprises in the main production areas is normal, and the supply is relatively loose. The steel billet price has dropped, which has put pressure on raw material prices. Although steel mills have a good demand for coke, their profit margins are limited, so they are cautious about coke prices. It is expected that the coke futures market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and more policy support may be implemented in the second quarter [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese futures price weakened in a fluctuating manner on Tuesday. The supply is still relatively high year - on - year, and the terminal demand is weak. The cost of manganese ore has remained stable recently. It is expected that the silicon manganese futures price will be weak and fluctuate in the short term [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures price weakened in a fluctuating manner on Tuesday. The production profit is still in the red, and the production decline has narrowed. The downstream steel procurement price is falling, and the demand support is limited. The cost is relatively stable. It is expected that the silicon iron futures price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton or 0.93% from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 15,300 lots in positions. The spot price dropped, and the trading volume decreased. The current supply - demand situation has improved, but there are potential negative factors such as tariff policies and production cut rumors [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2509 was 709 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and a reduction of 3,000 lots in positions. The supply has increased, and the demand has also risen. The inventory at ports and steel mills has increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 932 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or 1.58% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 4,849 lots in positions. The domestic supply is stable, and downstream inventory preparation is completed. Traders are on the sidelines [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1553 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 43 lots in positions. The production of coking enterprises is normal, and the supply is loose. Steel mills are cautious about prices [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The main silicon manganese futures contract was reported at 5758 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% from the previous day, with an increase of 15,565 lots in positions to 405,400 lots. The supply is still relatively high year - on - year, and the terminal demand is weak [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The main silicon iron futures contract was reported at 5608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous day, with a decrease of 15,383 lots in positions. The production profit is negative, and the demand support is limited [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 28.0, unchanged from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil was 49.0, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 120.0, an increase of 9.0 from the previous day; the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 99.2, a decrease of 0.7 from the previous day [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3220.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 762.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The rebar futures profit was 110.7, a decrease of 22.0 from the previous day; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 110.0, an increase of 2.0 from the previous day [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Price**: The report provides historical price charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [5][6][7][9][10][11][14]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [16][17][18][20][22]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: It presents the historical spread charts of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [24][25][29][31][32][34][36]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spread**: It includes the historical spread charts of the main contracts of hot - rolled coil and rebar, rebar and iron ore, rebar and coke, coking coal and iron ore, and silicon manganese and silicon iron [38][39][41][43]. - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: It provides the historical profit charts of rebar futures, long - process calculation, and short - process calculation [42][44][48]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Currently serves as the assistant director of the Research Institute of Everbright Futures and the director of black research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry and has won many industry awards [50]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Currently serves as the director of resource product research at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures. He is a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has won many industry awards [50]. - **Liu Xi**: A master of science, currently a black researcher at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [50]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Currently a black researcher at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, with experience in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [51].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面有所反弹，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3113 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 上涨 37 元/吨，涨幅为 1.2%，持仓增加 2.68 万手。现货价格上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | | | | 上涨 20 元/吨至 2960 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 40 元/吨至 3150 元/吨，全国建材成交量 14.55 | | | | 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存下降 6.59%至 518.7 万吨，热卷库存下降 6.88%至 214.07 万吨，库 | | | | 存降幅均明显加快，显示终端需求有所改善。前期贸易战导致的恐慌情绪有所缓和，螺纹旺季需求仍有韧 | | | | 性，库存降至低位水平，螺纹估值也处于低位。预计短期螺纹盘面仍以低位整理为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所上涨，收于 715.5 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘 ...