黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3084 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 3 元/吨，涨幅为 0.1%，持仓减少 1.04 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普方 | | | | 坯价格持平于 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.95 万吨。据钢谷 | | | | 网数据，本周全国建材产量回升 4.17 万吨至 351.37 万吨，社库减少 28.76 万吨至 508.9 万吨，厂库减少 | | | | 10.67 万吨至 289.65 万吨，建材表需回落 1.16 万吨。建材产量小幅回升，库存维持较明显下降，表需小幅 | | | | 回落，数据表现基本符合预期。目前螺纹现实供需表现较强，多地出现规格断档的现象，对价格走势形成 | | | | 较强支撑。不过近期钢厂盈利逐步回升，市场预期 1 月份钢厂复产将会增多，随着 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term rebar futures market is expected to move in a narrow range, and the iron ore price shows a volatile trend. The coking coal and coke futures markets are expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are also expected to be volatile in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The trading volume declined. The investment data in November continued to weaken, and the steel market was in a weak supply - demand situation. It is expected to move in a narrow range in the short term [1] - **Iron Ore**: The futures price of iron ore fell. The supply from Australia and Brazil increased, while the iron - making output decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The short - term price trend is volatile [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price rose, the spot price of some varieties changed, and the inventory in the factory continued to accumulate. Affected by factors such as the off - season and low downstream profits, the short - term market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures price rose, the spot price fell, and the downstream demand decreased. The short - term market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened, and the spot price increased slightly. Although the market sentiment has been boosted, the fundamentals lack continuous upward driving force, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened, and the spot price increased. The production is decreasing, but the terminal demand is weak. With the support of supply reduction, the short - term price is expected to be firm and volatile [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between different varieties [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [5][6][7] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts of various black commodities from 2022 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [15][16][17] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report displays the inter - period contract spread trends of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [23][24][26] - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report shows the trends of inter - variety contract spreads of main contracts, such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [41][42][44] - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: The report presents the profit trends of rebar main contracts, including the on - disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [45][48][51] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, along with their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54][55]

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面震荡反弹，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3117 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 38 元/吨，涨幅为 1.23%，持仓减少 7.95 万手。现货价格上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | | | | 上涨 20 元/吨至 2960 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 40 元/吨至 3220 元/吨，全国建材成交量 11.43 | | | | 万吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量回落 8.51 万吨至 347.2 万吨，社库回落 35.55 万吨至 537.66 万 | | | | 吨，厂库回落 9.21 万吨至 300.32 万吨，建材表需回落 9.63 万吨至 391.96 万吨。建材产量继续下降，库存 | | | | 维持较大幅度降幅，表需回落，数据表现依然偏好。市场传言房贷贴息政策将出台，房地产板块股票大幅 | | | | 反弹，对黑色商品情绪有一定提振。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 ...

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面延续窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3169 元/吨，较上一交易收盘 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格持平，持仓增加 12.2 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格持平于 2990 元 | | | | /吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3240 元/吨，全国建材成交量 8.98 万吨。据钢谷网数据，本 | | | | 周全国建材产量回落 8.3 万吨至 355.71 万吨，社库回落 23.5 万吨至 573.21 万吨，厂库回落 22.38 万吨至 | | | | 309.53 万吨，建材表需回升 11.93 万吨至 401.59 万吨。建材产量继续回落，库存降幅扩大，表需回升，数 | | | | 据表现偏强。近期部分地区工程赶工，螺纹需求仍维持一定韧性，在产量下降的情况下螺纹库存持续下降， | | | | 部分地区螺纹出现规格短缺的现象，对价格走势形成一定支撑。不过当前市场已处于消费淡季，后期需求 | | | | 将面临 2 个月左右的下 ...

黑色商品日报 二、日度数据监测 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面震荡上涨，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3134 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 24 元/吨，涨幅为 0.77%，持仓减少 8.97 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格持平于 2990 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 30 元/吨至 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 12.5 万吨。 | | | | 据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存下降 4.23%至 436.45 万吨，热卷库存增加 1.01%至 231.98 万吨，建材库存 | | | | 降幅扩大，热卷库存由降转增。生态环境部通报中央第三生态环境保护督察组督察河北省发现，唐山市违 | | | | 规上马钢铁项目、新增钢铁产能，部分企业违法排污问题突出，大气污染防治存在短板。受此影响，市场 | | | | 对于钢铁、焦化供应端收缩预期增强，对价格走势形成一定提振。不过当前市场已转入消费淡季，市场对 ...

Group 1: Research Views Steel Products - Yesterday, the rebar futures market fluctuated and rose. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 1.05% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 80,700 lots in positions. Spot prices increased, and trading volume rebounded. The inventory of building materials and hot-rolled coils decreased, and the total inventory pressure was significantly relieved. However, the market has entered the off-season, and the upward driving force for rebar prices is insufficient. It is expected that the short-term rebar futures market will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range [1]. Iron Ore - Yesterday, the price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 rose. It closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.6% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 310,000 lots and a decrease of 11,000 lots in positions. The supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, while that from other countries increased. The demand and inventory also changed. In the short term, the ore price shows a fluctuating trend [1]. Coking Coal - Yesterday, the coking coal futures market declined. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1096.5 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.59%, with an increase of 1800 lots in positions. Due to factors such as winter environmental protection restrictions and coal mine safety inspections, the supply of coking coal is difficult to increase significantly. The market sentiment has weakened, and the procurement rhythm of some coking and steel enterprises has slowed down. It is expected that the short-term coking coal futures market will fluctuate widely [1]. Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures market rose. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1632.5 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 1.11%, with a decrease of 1325 lots in positions. The cost of coking coal has decreased, and the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises has improved. However, the demand from steel mills has decreased. It is expected that the short-term coke futures market will fluctuate widely [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5630 yuan/ton, up 0.5% month-on-month, with a decrease of 41,457 lots in positions to 398,000 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions is 5480 - 5670 yuan/ton. The northern basis point price is lower than the factory production cost, and the actual trading volume is still limited. The new production capacity in Inner Mongolia has been postponed. It is expected that the short-term manganese silicon futures market will mainly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and production changes in the main producing areas [1][2]. Ferrosilicon - On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5456 yuan/ton, up 0.04% month-on-month, with an increase of 2936 lots in positions to 208,100 lots. The comprehensive price of ferrosilicon in various regions is about 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton. The production cost remains high, and some enterprises have reduced production. The demand has improved slightly, but the overall boost is limited. It is expected that the short-term ferrosilicon futures market will mainly fluctuate, and continuous attention should be paid to the start-up, cost, and new round of steel tenders in the main producing areas [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest data and month-on-month changes of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various varieties such as rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit, spread, and other data [3]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through charts [5][7][9][13]. 3.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [15][17][20][22]. 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report displays the inter - period contract spread trends of rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [24][31][32][36][40]. 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads - The report presents the inter - variety contract spread trends of the main contracts, including the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the difference between double silicon, through charts [42][44][46]. 3.5 Rebar Profits - The report shows the profit trends of the main rebar contract, including the disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit, through charts [47][51]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, along with their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various black commodities, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, suggesting that most of these commodities will show a narrow - range consolidation or oscillatory trend in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar market showed obvious gains. The spot price rose, and the inventory decreased. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the cost has strong support for the low - valued rebar price. It is expected to continue narrow - range consolidation [1] - **Iron Ore**: The futures price increased. The supply from Australia and Brazil rebounded, and the demand and inventory both increased. In the short term, the price will oscillate [1] - **Coking Coal**: The futures price went up. The supply side has tight inventory in some areas, and the demand side has a certain replenishment demand. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [1] - **Coke**: The futures price rose. After the fourth price increase, the profit of coke enterprises recovered, and the demand from steel mills increased. However, the terminal finished product market is weak, so it is expected to oscillate widely [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price oscillated strongly. The cost support is strong, and the supply is decreasing while the demand is weak. It will maintain an oscillatory pattern [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price oscillated strongly. The production decreased, the cost is relatively firm, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be supported and oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production changes in the main production areas [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) are provided, along with their latest values and环比 changes [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) is presented, including their latest values and环比 changes [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14] - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][18][20][21][23] - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts show the inter - period contract spreads (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 10) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][32][33][34][37][38] - **3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts present the inter - variety contract spreads (such as main contract coil - rebar spread, main contract rebar - iron ore ratio) for different commodities [42][43][44][45] - **3.3.5 Rebar Profit**: Charts show the rebar main contract disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][50][51] 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications in the black commodity research field [53][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term fluctuations in the steel plate are limited, and it may continue to trade in a narrow range. The iron ore price shows an oscillating trend. The coking coal and coke plates are expected to run in a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are also in an oscillating pattern, with limited fundamental driving forces [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Steel - The rebar futures market had a narrow - range oscillation. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 10,700 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable with some increases, and trading volume rebounded. This week, the national rebar production decreased by 85,400 tons to 2 million tons, social inventory decreased by 99,500 tons to 4.1575 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 64,200 tons to 1.6042 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 21,500 tons to 216,370 tons. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term plate may continue to trade in a narrow range [1]. Iron Ore - The main contract i2601 of iron ore futures showed an oscillating trend, closing at 772.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 220,000 lots and a decrease of 7,000 lots in positions. The supply from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while that from other countries increased. The pig iron output increased by 26,600 tons to 2.3688 million tons. The inventory of 47 ports increased by 1.8871 million tons to 158.1284 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 660,000 tons. In the short term, the ore price will oscillate [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal plate declined. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1214 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.41%, with a decrease of 991 lots in positions. The price of some coking coal varieties decreased. The winter safety inspection of coal mines was upgraded, and the downstream coking enterprises slowed down the restocking rhythm. Although some steel mills accepted the fourth - round price increase of coke, the coking coal demand is expected to increase, and the short - term plate is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [1]. Coke - The coke plate declined. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1686 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.21%, with a decrease of 164 lots in positions. The spot price of port coke decreased. The coking enterprises' losses expanded, and the production capacity utilization rate and output decreased slightly. The steel mills' demand for coke declined, but the inventory in steel mills was still at a medium - low level. The short - term plate is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened in an oscillating manner, with the main contract closing at 5756 yuan/ton, down 0.24% month - on - month, and the positions of the main contract increased by 8209 lots to 362,200 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions was 5550 - 5720 yuan/ton. The production of manganese silicon decreased slightly, the number of mainstream steel tenders decreased, the cost was supported, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall situation is an oscillating pattern [3]. Ferrosilicon - On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price weakened in an oscillating manner, with the main contract closing at 5506 yuan/ton, up 0.22% month - on - month, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 13,709 lots to 149,200 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in various regions was about 5130 - 5200 yuan/ton. New production capacity was put into operation, the steel demand was weak, the non - steel demand was okay, the number of mainstream steel tenders decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected to follow the overall black market fluctuations in the short term [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit, spread data [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - delivery contract spreads, inter - variety contract spreads, and rebar profits of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, helping to visually analyze the price trends and relationships of these commodities [6][17][26][43][48]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [54][55].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Views - Steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost support weakening, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - Iron ore shows an oscillating weakly trend in the short - term due to factors such as changes in supply, demand, and inventory [1] - Coking coal supply is tight, and the downstream has different procurement attitudes, so the short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [1] - Coke supply is affected by cost, and demand is influenced by steel mills' production, with the short - term disk expected to oscillate widely [1] - Manganese silicon has a complex fundamental situation with multiple factors intertwined, and the overall is in an oscillating pattern [1] - Ferrosilicon's current fundamental support is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate with the black market in the short - term [3] Group 3: Summary by Sections Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price decreased, the spot price dropped slightly, and the demand entered the off - season. The steel mills' losses expanded, and the cost support weakened, so the short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Iron ore**: The futures price oscillated, the supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, the demand (iron - water output) declined, and the inventory increased, resulting in an oscillating weakly trend in the short - term [1] - **Coking coal**: The futures price fell, the supply was tight, the downstream procurement attitudes varied, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [1] - **Coke**: The futures price declined, the supply was affected by cost, and the demand was influenced by steel mills' production, with the short - term disk expected to oscillate widely [1] - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price oscillated weakly, the production decreased slightly, the demand (steel recruitment) declined, the cost was stable with electricity price adjustment expected, and the inventory reached a new high, so it is in an oscillating pattern [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price oscillated weakly, the production cost increased significantly, the supply was relatively stable, the demand (steel recruitment) decreased, and the inventory reached a new high, so it is expected to fluctuate with the black market [3] Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties have different spread values and changes, such as the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar being - 64.0 with a - 6.0 change [4] - **Basis**: The basis values and their changes of different contracts of various varieties are presented, for example, the 01 contract basis of rebar is 165.0 with a 19.0 change [4] - **Spot prices**: The latest spot prices and their changes of various varieties in different regions are given, like the Shanghai rebar spot price is 3190.0 with no change [4] - **Profits and spreads**: Information on profits (such as rebar's disk profit) and cross - variety spreads (such as the coil - rebar spread) is provided, for example, the rebar disk profit is - 119.5 with a 13.6 change [4] Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main contract prices**: Graphs show the closing prices of main contracts of various varieties over the years, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][10] - **3.2 Main contract basis**: Graphs display the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different months, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [17][18][21] - **3.3 Inter - period contract spreads**: Graphs present the spreads of inter - period contracts of various varieties, like rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [26][28][32] - **3.4 Cross - variety contract spreads**: Graphs show the cross - variety spreads of main contracts, including the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [43][45][47] - **3.5 Rebar profits**: Graphs display the profits of rebar's main contracts, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][52] Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors [54] - Zhang Xiaojin has rich experience in resource - product research and many industry honors [54] - Liu Xi is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54] - Zhang Chunjie is good at investment trading strategies and combining financial theory with industrial operations [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: The steel market is expected to experience narrow - range consolidation. Although the supply - demand data has improved with a slight increase in production, a decline in inventory, and an increase in apparent demand, the market has a generally pessimistic outlook on future demand, and there is still significant pressure on the supply - demand side. However, the current price valuation is not high, and the strong performance of coking coal and coke prices strengthens the cost support for steel [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is expected to show a range - bound oscillation. With a slight increase in shipments from Australia and Brazil and other countries on the supply side, and a decrease in molten iron production on the demand side, along with a continuous decline in steel mill profitability and pressure on steel inventories, the steel demand remains weak, and the coking coal and coke prices are strong [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Due to stricter safety inspections at coal mines, limited production release, and smooth shipments, the coal mine inventory has decreased significantly. Although coking enterprises have limited production, they still have a strong rigid demand for high - quality coking coal [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The sharp rise in coking coal prices has increased the production cost of coke and deteriorated the profit margin of coking enterprises, leading to an expected increase in production restrictions. Meanwhile, steel mills' demand for coke has increased due to high - level blast furnace operation and a decline in inventory [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon price is expected to be firm and oscillate slightly stronger. After the end of an important meeting, market sentiment has been boosted, and the price center of manganese silicon has moved up slightly. Although the fundamentals have limited driving forces, with an increase in production and a decline in demand and an increase in inventory, the market sentiment has a positive impact [1][3]. - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron price is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. Market sentiment has been boosted, and although the production has slightly decreased and the demand is still to be stimulated, and the inventory is at a high level in recent years, the fundamentals provide some support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Closing Price | Price Change | Price Change Rate | Position Change | Supply - Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel (Rebar) | 3071 yuan/ton | +3 yuan/ton | +0.1% | - 0.82 million hands | Production increased by 5.91 million tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 18.93 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 0.01 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 6.26 million tons | Narrow - range consolidation [1] | | Iron Ore | 777 yuan/ton | +3 yuan/ton | +0.4% | +0.3 million hands | Shipments from Australia and Brazil increased slightly, molten iron production decreased by 1.05 million tons, and port inventory increased by 147.62 million tons | Range - bound oscillation [1] | | Coking Coal | 1258.5 yuan/ton | +49 yuan/ton | +4.05% | +86290 hands | Stricter safety inspections, limited production release, and a significant decrease in coal mine inventory | Wide - range oscillation [1] | | Coke | 1768 yuan/ton | +58.5 yuan/ton | +3.42% | +1289 hands | Rising coking coal prices, increased production cost, and expected increase in production restrictions for coking enterprises; increased demand from steel mills | Wide - range oscillation [1] | | Manganese Silicon | 5818 yuan/ton | +0.41% | - | - 4420 hands | Production stopped falling and rebounded, demand decreased, and inventory increased | Oscillate slightly stronger [1][3] | | Silicon Iron | 5574 yuan/ton | +0.94% | - | - 5440 hands | Production decreased by 2.6% week - on - week, demand was limited, and inventory increased | Oscillate slightly stronger [3] | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread and Basis**: The data shows the latest values and week - on - week changes of contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) and basis for various varieties, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The data presents the latest values and week - on - week changes of profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) for various varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [17][18][19][21][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the contract spreads of different periods (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][38][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and manganese silicon - silicon iron difference [41][42][43][45]. - **Rebar Profit**: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Black Research at Everbright Futures. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors. His futures trading qualification numbers are F3046854 and Z0016941 [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures. She has rich experience in the field of black commodities and has won many industry awards. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F0306200 and Z0000082 [52]. - Liu Xi: Black Researcher at Everbright Futures. She is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F03087689 and Z0019538 [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Black Researcher at Everbright Futures. He has experience in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, passed the CFA Level II exam, and is good at investment trading strategies and spot - futures analysis. His futures trading qualification number is F03132960 [53].