美国、日本、韩国股市今年的领涨行业中，芯片与半导体设备受益于AI相关业务，表现非常活跃。 但是，随着市场不断上涨，投资者分歧增多，股市波动也在加大。尤其是近期关于AI科技股泡沫风险 的讨论在增加。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：好买财富） 今年以来，全球主要股票市场均有较好表现，美国、日本、韩国、德国等多国股市多次刷新历史新高。 看行情背后的驱动因素，AI科技革命带动的消费与投资新周期，是全球股市上涨的主要动力。 关注流动性环境与美联储政策方向 从最近的市场波动中，大家可能也会感受到，科技股行情对于美联储货币政策非常敏感。短期降息概率 的变化就可能造成较大的股市波动。 美联储政策利率是全球资产的定价锚，它既影响着科技股估值逻辑的分母端，同时高弹性的科技行情也 需要充裕流动性的支持。 随着本轮美联储降息周期的推进，当前又来到了一个分歧的路口，这也是近期全球股市波动加剧的主要 原因之一。 美联储主席鲍威尔此前称12月降息"并非板上钉钉"。有投票权的波士顿联储主席柯林斯也表示，8月以 来两次降息后政策应关注对通胀的抑制，当前通胀仍高于2%的长期目标，反对12月急于降息。 风险与机遇并存的当下，全球多国别多元化配置的意义愈 ...

Core Insights - The key highlights of the "14th Five-Year Plan" include accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and boosting consumption while actively addressing population aging [1][2] - The future industrial output value in China is projected to reach approximately 11.7 trillion yuan in 2024, with expected growth to 13.4 trillion yuan in 2025 and 15.5 trillion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15% [2] - The integration of "Artificial Intelligence+" into six key areas is anticipated to deepen by 2027, with new generation smart terminals and applications expected to exceed a 70% penetration rate [2] Investment Opportunities - The rise in risk appetite is identified as a core driver of the current market uptrend, influenced by multiple factors including breakthroughs in AI and technology, policy focus on the stock market, and China's enhanced global standing [4] - Four main asset allocation themes are highlighted: low-interest-rate assets, sectors benefiting from global geopolitical tensions, AI technology revolution, and new consumption trends related to younger demographics [5] - The importance of diversified investment strategies is emphasized due to increased volatility in global capital markets, necessitating cross-market and diversified asset allocation [5] Economic Transformation - The need to reduce the investment contribution to GDP while increasing consumption is critical during China's economic transition, with a focus on improving residents' income levels [3] - Recommendations include constructing a fertility support policy system, developing the silver economy, and achieving equalization of public services, particularly in healthcare and elderly care [3] - The goal is to establish a comprehensive pension service network by 2029, ensuring a robust social security system [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.68%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.69% [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.59 trillion yuan, a decrease of 280.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - The lithium battery industry chain led the decline, with significant drops in sectors such as innovative drugs, GPUs, robotics, photovoltaics, AI applications, semiconductors, and new energy vehicles [2][3] - Conversely, the pharmaceutical commerce and consumer electronics sectors showed resilience, with several local stocks in Fujian province experiencing notable gains [2][3] Notable Stocks - Stocks such as Jiarong Technology (+20.01%), Zhaobiao Co. (+20.00%), and Fujian Expressway (+10.10%) were among the top gainers [5][6] - The aerospace sector was active, with Aerospace Development achieving 9 limit-up days in 13 trading sessions [5][6] Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the consumer electronics, shipbuilding, and automotive sectors, while outflows were noted in the computer, securities, and non-ferrous metals sectors [9] - Specific stocks like Industrial Fulian, New Yi Sheng, and Shenghong Technology saw net inflows of 1.114 billion yuan, 1.077 billion yuan, and 993 million yuan respectively [9] Institutional Insights - Huaxi Securities anticipates that the A-share market will enter a critical policy observation window in December, potentially increasing market risk appetite and setting the stage for a year-end rally [10] - CICC suggests that the current valuation of the A-share market is relatively reasonable, supported by the AI technology revolution and energy transition, which are expected to enhance corporate performance [10] - According to GF Securities, December to January is historically a prime time for positioning in the year-end market, particularly for sectors with positive earnings forecasts [10]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a day of fluctuation and adjustment, with all three major indices closing lower, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid sector-specific performance variations [3][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42% to 3897.71, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.68% to 13056.70, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.69% to 3071.15 [4]. - The lithium battery industry chain led the decline, while sectors such as pharmaceutical commerce and consumer electronics showed resilience [3][4]. Sector Highlights - Local stocks in Fujian province surged, with companies like Jiarong Technology and Zhaobiao Shares hitting the daily limit up [5][6]. - The aerospace sector was notably active, with Aerospace Development achieving nine consecutive trading limits in 13 days [6][7]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in consumer electronics, shipbuilding, and automotive sectors, while significant outflows occurred in computing, securities, and non-ferrous metals [10]. - Specific stocks like Industrial Fulian and New Yisheng saw net inflows of 1.114 billion and 1.077 billion respectively, while ZTE Corporation faced a net outflow of 2.968 billion [11][12]. Analyst Insights - Huaxi Securities anticipates that the A-share market will enter a critical policy observation window in December, potentially increasing market risk appetite [12]. - CICC suggests that the current valuation of the A-share market is relatively reasonable, supported by the AI technology revolution and energy transition, indicating a continued upward trend [12]. - Guangfa Securities highlights December to January as a prime window for positioning in the market, especially for sectors with positive earnings forecasts [13].

| 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | NYm | 3897.71 с | -16.29 | -0.42% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | proving | 13056.70 c | -90.02 | -0.68% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | NASH | 3071.15 c | -21.35 | -0.69% | 盘面上，锂电池产业链领跌，创新药、GPU、机器人、光伏、AI应用、半导体、新能源车概念股跌幅 居前。两岸融合、医药商业、消费电子题材逆势走强。 具体来看，福建本地股逆势爆发，嘉戎技术、招标股份、福建高速、平潭发展等10股涨停。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅量 | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301148 | 嘉戎技术 | +20.01% | 47.57 | | 301136 | 招标股份 | +20.00% | 19.92 | | 300300 | 海峡创新 | +13.53% | 18.46 | | ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices opened lower on December 2, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.55% to 3892.55 points and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.77% to 13045.96 points, reflecting a significant decline across all major indices [1] - The trading volume was approximately 407.4 billion yuan for the Shanghai index and about 639.8 billion yuan for the Shenzhen index, indicating active market participation despite the downturn [1] Sector Performance - AI, insurance, and plant-based meat sectors showed strong performance at the opening, while sectors like photolithography, fluorochemicals, and non-ferrous metals faced declines [1] - By midday, sectors such as insurance, oil, and communication equipment experienced notable gains, while home goods, aquaculture, and military information technology sectors saw significant rebounds [1] - The Fujian and Hainan Free Trade Zones, along with pharmaceutical commerce, were among the top gainers, while energy metals and cloud gaming sectors faced the largest declines [1] Future Outlook - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the A-share market is expected to maintain a reasonable valuation amid a synchronized global liquidity easing cycle, with a focus on large-cap growth styles until early next year [2] - CITIC Securities highlighted the transition of space computing from concept to reality, emphasizing the reliance on photovoltaic technology for energy supply in space, and suggested monitoring investment opportunities in perovskite technology [2] - Huatai Securities projected that the metal industry may see improved supply-demand dynamics by 2026, with gold prices potentially rising above $4800 per ounce, and recommended focusing on undervalued sectors like copper and aluminum [3] Industry Developments - The launch of the Chinese drug price registration system on December 2 aims to provide a transparent pricing mechanism for domestic and foreign pharmaceutical companies, facilitating the global market development of innovative drugs [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is preparing to establish the China Artificial Intelligence Terminal Industry Association, which is expected to significantly contribute to the high-quality development of the AI terminal industry [4]

转自：新华财经 展望后市，短期风格切换较难持续，在中外流动性宽松周期共振的背景下，A股市场估值相对合理，AI 科技革命与能源革命支撑上游原材料到中游制造需求，成长产业高景气带动上市公司业绩改善，震荡上 行的趋势仍在延续。当前时点至明年初，仍重点关注大盘成长风格，较长时间维度的风格切换可能出现 在明年一季度左右。四季度以来通胀预期普遍下调，年末涉及房地产、促消费等相关领域的政策信号有 待观察。 编辑：林郑宏 新华财经上海12月2日电 中金公司研报分析认为，11月A股市场震荡调整，交易活跃度有所下降，风格 演绎阶段性"高切低"但持续时间短且主线不清，红利略有相对表现。从全球范围看，主要经济体股票市 场普跌，一方面投资者对于美联储降息节奏预期反复，另一方面对当前AI资产是否已经出现泡沫、科 技叙事持续性的担忧阶段性升温。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，11月A股市场震荡调整，交易活跃度有所下降，风格演绎阶段性"高切低"但持续时间短且主线不清，红利略有相对 表现。从全球范围看，主要经济体股票市场普跌，一方面投资者对于美联储降息节奏预期反复，另一方面对当前AI资产是否已经出现泡沫、科技叙事持 续性的担忧阶段性升温。 展望后市，中金认为短期风格切换较难持续，在中外流动性宽松周期共振的背景下，A股市场估值相对合理，AI科技革命与能源革命支撑上游原材料到中 游制造需求，成长产业高景气带动上市公司业绩改善，震荡上行的趋势仍在延续，当前时点至明年初，仍重点关注大盘成长风格，较长时间维度的风格切 换可能出现在明年一季度左右。四季度以来通胀预期普遍下调，年末涉及房地产、促消费等相关领域的政策信号有待观察。 5）金融：银行高股息属性吸引中长期资金配置，股票市场情绪与活跃度边际回落。在宏观经济寻底阶段，银行股盈利保持稳定，凭借股息确定性与低估 值，吸引保险等中长期资金持续增加配置。10月保险行业保费收入同比增长8%，保险公司资产总额同比增速约为16%，我们认为"开门红"期间保费有望 维持较好增长。11月全部A股日均成交额下行至1.9万亿元，两 ...

Industry Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations in November, with a brief "high to low" style switch that lacked clarity in the main themes, while dividend stocks showed slight relative performance [2] - Global stock markets saw declines, influenced by fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and concerns over potential AI asset bubbles [2] - The outlook suggests that style switching may not be sustainable in the short term, with a focus on large-cap growth styles until early next year [2] Energy and Basic Materials - The "anti-involution" policy is advancing, leading to a divergence in demand between old and new economies, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace under observation [2] - Prices for various commodities showed mixed performance: thermal coal up 6%, lithium carbonate up 16%, while coking coal and iron ore prices fell by 17% and 1% respectively [2] - The U.S. government has resumed operations, alleviating some liquidity concerns, but the job market remains resilient, warranting attention to future Federal Reserve meetings [2] Industrial Products - The domestic real estate chain remains weak, while emerging markets present significant opportunities for exports [3] - In October, domestic excavator sales grew by 2% year-on-year, while export sales increased by 13% [3] - The photovoltaic industry chain has seen a slowdown in price increases, with prices for polysilicon and solar cells remaining stable month-on-month [3] Consumer Products - Traditional consumer sectors are struggling, with policies aimed at boosting consumption being gradually introduced [4] - Home appliance sales have declined significantly, with washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners down by 23%, 27%, and 24% year-on-year respectively [4] - The Central Committee has emphasized the need to stimulate consumption, with plans to create three trillion-level consumption sectors by 2027 [4] Technology - Continuous innovation in AI applications is noted, with domestic models progressing steadily [5] - The technology sector's leading stocks faced adjustments in November, but companies in communication equipment are expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure in North America [5] - The gaming sector remains robust, with 166 game licenses issued in October, maintaining a high level [5] Financial Sector - Bank stocks are attracting long-term capital due to their high dividend yields and stable earnings [6] - The insurance sector saw an 8% year-on-year increase in premium income in October, with total assets growing by approximately 16% [6] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market fell to 1.9 trillion yuan in November, indicating a decline in market activity [6] Real Estate - The focus remains on destocking and debt reduction, with significant policy support anticipated [6] - In November, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 36% year-on-year, although it rose by 1% month-on-month [6] - The price index for new and second-hand residential properties in 70 major cities declined by 2.6% and 5.4% year-on-year respectively [6] Recommendations - Focus on AI applications, particularly in domestic computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, as well as sectors like innovative drugs and energy storage [7] - Certain non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from global monetary order restructuring and demand recovery [7] - Export performance is currently stronger than domestic demand, with companies in sectors like electrical equipment and engineering machinery showing promising prospects [7]

（来源：好买财富） 2025年即将收官，回望全年，今年全球股市亮点颇多，美国、日本、韩国、德国等多个国家的股票市场 创出历史新高，年内实现了可观的涨幅。 来源：市场资讯 不过，随着市场不断上涨，投资者分歧增多，股市波动也在加大。近期倍受热议的，是美国大型科技股 的泡沫风险。一方面，提示风险的声音逐渐增多，另一方面以巴菲特为代表的长线配置型资金仍然看好 优质科技企业的投资机遇。 风险与机遇并存的当下，全球多国别多元化配置的意义愈发明显。为了帮助大家更深入的了解当前的市 场环境和资配思路，我们准备了"AI科技浪潮中的全球配置"系列文章。 本文是系列文章的第二篇，我们放眼全球市场，横向比对下全球主要经济体的股票市场，看看各自的风 险和机遇如何。 1 全球主要股市宏观环境、盈利估值分析 我们可以先来看一看全球主要经济体的宏观经济运行情况。 | 国家 | 全球GDP 占比 (%) | 实际GDP: 当季同比 | PMI | M2:当月 | CPI:当月 | 政策利 | 长期/10年 国债利率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | ...