Core Views - The uncertainty surrounding tariff developments persists, but the market is accelerating its shift towards recession trading as expectations of a downturn rise. The synchronization of the economic cycles between China and the U.S. may occur sooner than anticipated [1][5] Tariff Policy and Market Impact - The current tariff policy is seen as a negotiation tactic by the U.S., applying extreme pressure on other countries to achieve a 10% tariff increase while potentially allowing for exemptions in certain industries. This strategy may lead to a reduction in actual tariffs imposed by many countries [3] - China's retaliatory tariff measures are expected to drive domestic substitution in high-end manufacturing and consumer sectors, particularly for products heavily reliant on U.S. imports [3][4] Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - Investors are likely to lower their risk appetite in the short term, maintaining a framework focused on recession expectations. The uncertainty from the broad and high tariffs is expected to increase market volatility [4][6] - The transition from recession expectations to actual recession trading is becoming more probable, with key indicators such as U.S. corporate earnings per share (EPS) showing signs of decline [6][8] Economic Synchronization and Policy Response - The synchronization of economic cycles between China and the U.S. may lead to an earlier implementation of stimulus policies in China, with significant impacts on GDP growth and exports due to increased tariffs [7][8] - The anticipated window for investment opportunities may also arrive sooner, coinciding with external shocks and policy responses [8] Core Asset Investment Outlook - Core assets are expected to gain an advantage as the economic policy cycles align, with a focus on companies exhibiting strong operational resilience and growth potential. The GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy is projected to outperform [9][10] - Short-term investment recommendations include sectors with pricing power and resilience to geopolitical disruptions, such as AI, precision optics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [11][12] Long-term Investment Trends - Long-term focus should be on global manufacturing demand recovery and the trend of Chinese technology going abroad, as geopolitical uncertainties drive countries to invest in energy, defense, and technology sectors [13]

Key Points - The report from CITIC Securities highlights two critical time points in the year: the first is the external risk landing in early April, which is expected to create trading opportunities, and the second is the synchronization of the economic and policy cycles between China and the U.S. around mid-year, which will provide allocation opportunities for core assets [1][2][3] Group 1: Key Time Points - The first key time point is the external risk landing in early April, including the results of the U.S. trade policy memo and the clarity on "reciprocal tariffs." This is expected to lead to trading opportunities in the technology sector due to its weak macroeconomic correlation and strong industrial catalysts [2][3] - The second key time point is the synchronization of the economic and policy cycles between China and the U.S. in mid-year, which may lead to the fourth round of economic stimulus in China since 2013, as the U.S. faces economic weakening and increased tariff pressures [2][8] Group 2: Trading Opportunities - Following the external risk landing in early April, the technology sector is anticipated to experience new trading opportunities, particularly in the context of the U.S. trade policy developments and the expected adjustments in the macroeconomic environment [3][4] - The report emphasizes that edge AI is likely to be a significant catalyst for market movements, with upcoming product launches, particularly from companies like Xiaomi, expected to boost market sentiment [4][10] Group 3: Investment Focus - The report suggests focusing on core assets in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in sectors such as domestic computing power, edge AI, lithium batteries, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong [10] - Additionally, it recommends paying attention to sectors that may experience potential earnings surprises in Q1, including wind power components, engineering machinery, automotive electronics, and service consumption [10]

导语 晨星基金研究秉持独立性与投资者利益优先的原则，通过对基金投研团队、投资流程等 的分析来确定对基金的信心。我们的研究方法注重可持续性并以长期投资为导向，助力 投资者在基金选择中做出更加明智的投资决策。本篇文章介绍晨星基金研究团队在权益 资产类别中值得关注的四只基金产品，期望能为投资者在决策中提供参考。 ►► 易方达逆向投资混合 产品速览 该基金是一只沪港深积极配置型基金，除了主要投资于A股外，契约中规定50%以内的股票资产可以投资 于港股,基金经理通过对比A股和港股的性价比从而决定港股在组合里面的配置比重。基金经理采用GARP 策略，旨在以合理的价格买入具有持续稳定增长潜力的股票。 产品潜力 基金经理杨嘉文先生属于投资能力较强的中生代基金经理，他具备13年证券从业经历和7年公 募基金管理经验。虽然他2021年4月才开始管理该基金，但是他采用相同的策略从2017年12月 开始管理纯A股基金—易方达科瑞混合基金至今，目前已经管理超过7年的时间，管理期良好 业绩表现也证明了基金经理较强的投资A股的能力。 基金经理的投资思路偏逆向，倾向于回避市场关注度相对较高的行业和个股，而把研究和投资 资源投放到市场关注度相对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of independent research and long-term investment strategies in fund selection, highlighting four noteworthy equity funds that may provide valuable insights for investors [1]. Group 1: Fund Overview - E Fund Contrarian Investment Mixed Fund primarily invests in A-shares and has a flexible allocation to Hong Kong stocks, utilizing a GARP strategy to identify stocks with stable growth potential [2]. - Zhongtai Kaiyang Value Select Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund employs a bottom-up stock selection approach, focusing on quality growth while considering valuation [5]. - Invesco Great Wall Growth Star Equity Fund, managed with a growth investment strategy, combines industry research with bottom-up stock analysis to identify growth stock opportunities [8]. - Hongde Honghua Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund emphasizes fundamental research, focusing on long-term growth and quality of stocks while controlling portfolio volatility [13]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - E Fund's manager, Yang Jiawen, has 13 years of experience and a strong track record in A-share investment, employing a contrarian approach to identify undervalued stocks [3]. - Zhongtai Kaiyang's manager, Tian Yu, has 13 years of experience and emphasizes deep fundamental research, maintaining a concentrated portfolio of around 20 stocks [6]. - Invesco Great Wall's manager, Zhou Hanying, has extensive overseas investment experience and has shown potential in A-share investments, focusing on stable and high-growth companies [9]. - Hongde Honghua's manager, Qin Yi, has 7 years of experience and emphasizes a growth-oriented strategy, analyzing companies' competitive advantages and market conditions [15]. Group 3: Fund Performance and Characteristics - E Fund Contrarian Investment Mixed Fund has a scale of 958 million and is classified as low risk, showing high cumulative returns since its management began [4][5]. - Zhongtai Kaiyang Value Select Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund has a scale of 1.751 billion and is classified as high risk, with moderate returns since its inception [7]. - Invesco Great Wall Growth Star Equity Fund has a scale of 2.61 billion, classified as low risk, and has demonstrated high returns since management began [12]. - Hongde Honghua Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund has a scale of 427 million, classified as medium risk, and has shown high returns since its management began [16].

Group 1: Spring Strategy and Core Assets - The core viewpoint is that China's core assets are expected to experience a revival in the spring, driven by policy advancements in three key areas: technology innovation, supply-side reform, and institutional optimization [1] - The new core assets with potential billion-dollar valuations are emerging, while about 30% of traditional industry leaders are showing operational turning points [1] - The report emphasizes a shift from "good companies" to "ordinary companies," indicating a significant differentiation in performance as confidence is restored [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook for 2025 - The share of real estate and its industrial chain in China's economy is projected to decline from 18% in 2020 to 10%-11% by 2024, while strategic emerging industries are expected to rise from 11.7% to 14.1% in the same period [2] - Monetary policy is anticipated to focus on the broad price system, while fiscal policy will maintain reasonable space to address external challenges and weak domestic demand [2] - The economic growth in 2025 is expected to follow a "U" shape, with an annual growth rate around 5% [2] Group 3: A-Share Market Themes for 2025 - 2025 is expected to be a significant year for thematic investments in the A-share market, driven by factors such as funding preferences, technological catalysts, policy implementation, and the evolving US-China relationship [4] - Ten major themes are identified for 2025, including AI+, smart transportation, humanoid robots, and bio-manufacturing, among others [4][6] - The report suggests that these themes will guide investment strategies throughout the year [4] Group 4: New Narratives in Chinese Assets - The attractiveness of Chinese assets is increasing, with a renewed investment logic in technology manufacturing [8] - Key breakthroughs in frontier technologies are expected to reshape the global tech landscape, with a focus on AI and high-value-added industries [8] - The report highlights the importance of long-term investment opportunities in sectors like AI, intelligent driving, and semiconductor advanced processes [8] Group 5: AI Smart Glasses Investment Insights - AI smart glasses are identified as a cost-effective hardware solution with significant potential, akin to the early days of TWS earbuds [10] - Short-term investment is recommended due to low current shipment volumes, while long-term prospects are expected to improve with the release of major products [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on segments with the highest value share and optimal market structure within the supply chain [10] Group 6: AIDC Market Dynamics - The AIDC (Automated Identification and Data Capture) market is experiencing growth, driven by a significant demand for new technologies [12] - The report suggests a focus on investment opportunities in the "power supply + interconnection" aspect of AIDC [12] Group 7: Gold Market Outlook - The report anticipates a strong performance for gold stocks in 2025, driven by increased production and a favorable liquidity environment [17] - The expected rise in gold prices is supported by the influx of ETFs and the ongoing narrative of "de-dollarization" [17] Group 8: Metal Supply Disruptions - The escalation of conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is expected to disrupt metal supplies, particularly for tin, copper, and cobalt [18] - The report highlights the potential for increased metal prices due to supply chain disturbances caused by regional conflicts [18]

导语 在国内公募基金行业蓬勃发展的进程中，女性基金经理的队伍正不断壮大，她们在权益 和固收投资领域展现出了卓越的专业素养。凭借敏锐的洞察力、严谨的投资策略，她们 为投资者带来持续且稳健的回报。值此"三八"国际妇女节之际，让我们把目光聚焦到几 位优秀的女性基金经理身上，深入探寻她们在竞争激烈的基金行业中，凭借自身实力大 放异彩，不断创造出色业绩的成功秘诀。 ►► 王健 中欧基金 王健女士是一位从行业研究员成长起来的经验丰富的基金经理，也是一位坚定的GARP策略投 资者，专注于以合理的价格买入具有长期优质潜力的成长股。 她早年曾经在红塔证券以及光 大保德信基金公司担任医药行业研究员，这段6年的研究经历培养了她扎实的研究功底和独立 判断能力，并帮助她逐步搭建起了一套完善的研究框架。2009年10月王健转向投资岗位，至 2015年5月期间，由于经历了牛市结束后的市场剧烈震荡，使得她相比其他成长策略的基金经 理更加注重估值，也令她的GARP策略框架基本成型。2015年6月，她加入中欧基金公司并一 直从事投资工作，随着她投资经验的积累，她更加深刻地理解了GARP策略，并坚定了自己的 投资理念。在过去长达21年的投资研究生 ...

在国内公募基金行业蓬勃发展的进程中，女性基金经理的队伍正不断壮大，她们在权益 和固收投资领域展现出了卓越的专业素养。凭借敏锐的洞察力、严谨的投资策略，她们 为投资者带来持续且稳健的回报。值此"三八"国际妇女节之际，让我们把目光聚焦到几 位优秀的女性基金经理身上，深入探寻她们在竞争激烈的基金行业中，凭借自身实力大 放异彩，不断创造出色业绩的成功秘诀。 ►► 王健 中欧基金 王健女士是一位从行业研究员成长起来的经验丰富的基金经理，也是一位坚定的GARP策略投 资者，专注于以合理的价格买入具有长期优质潜力的成长股。 她早年曾经在红塔证券以及光 大保德信基金公司担任医药行业研究员，这段6年的研究经历培养了她扎实的研究功底和独立 判断能力，并帮助她逐步搭建起了一套完善的研究框架。2009年10月王健转向投资岗位，至 2015年5月期间，由于经历了牛市结束后的市场剧烈震荡，使得她相比其他成长策略的基金经 理更加注重估值，也令她的GARP策略框架基本成型。2015年6月，她加入中欧基金公司并一 直从事投资工作，随着她投资经验的积累，她更加深刻地理解了GARP策略，并坚定了自己的 投资理念。在过去长达21年的投资研究生涯中， ...

中信证券 2025 年春季策略：核心资产的春天 摘要 Q&A 您对中国核心资产的看法是什么？为什么认为它们具有投资价值？ 我们非常看好中国的新核心资产接力。前一段时间市场经历了极致高波动的板 块行情，但我们认为最近的市场高切低模式与过去一两年有根本性不同。投资 者开始抛弃杠铃结构，转向持续进攻和持有，体现出更积极的心态。信心修复 目前局限于科技领域，但未来会扩散到经济领域，这是时间问题。我们对两会 在供给侧和促消费方面保持期待。 从风格上看，核心资产是关注重心。A 股市 场若要走出类似港股市场的指数化行情，需要龙头核心资产走出盈利和估值空 间。这包括新赛道萌芽及传统核心资产中的经营拐点公司。目前大约 30%的传 • 市场策略转变：机构投资者逐步放弃杠铃策略，转向持续进攻和持有，显 示出对市场更为积极的态度，信心修复正从科技领域向经济领域扩散。 • 核心资产配置：核心资产是关注重点，A 股市场若要走出指数化行情，需 要龙头核心资产实现盈利和估值双重提升，包括新赛道萌芽及传统核心资 产中的经营拐点公司，目前约 30%的传统核心资产公司已走出经营拐点。 • 港股估值优势：港股市场仍处于早期阶段，互联网龙头、半导体 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's core assets are expected to experience a revival in the spring, driven by policy advancements in technology, supply-side reforms, and consumption potential optimization [1] - The "New Core Asset 30" portfolio is selected from technology, industrial, and consumer sectors, focusing on companies that are expected to outperform ordinary firms as confidence is restored [1] - The market is anticipated to shift towards consumption-related themes with lower valuation levels, especially in light of the upcoming "Two Sessions" and external uncertainties [2] Group 2 - The IPO normalization is seen as a necessary reform direction to balance financing and support the real economy, with expectations of increased IPO supply without burdening the market [4] - The RMB's equilibrium exchange rate is estimated to be between 7.3 and 7.4, with short-term fluctuations expected between 7.20 and 7.35, influenced by trade dynamics and capital flows [5] - The manufacturing sector shows positive signs with PMI data indicating a recovery, supported by consumption stimulus policies and infrastructure investments [6] Group 3 - The solid-state battery industry is projected to see significant developments, with expectations for small-scale production by 2027 and mass production by 2030, highlighting investment opportunities across the supply chain [15] - The high-end titanium material sector is expected to recover due to increased demand from the military and aerospace industries, with a favorable competitive landscape [21] - The liquid cooling market is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 38% from 2025 to 2027, driven by advancements in technology and increasing demand for efficient cooling solutions [23]

文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 沈思越 连一席 杨帆 遥远 玛西高娃 于翔 展望春季，随着政策在三大领域的推进和发力，信心修复将从科技领域逐步扩散到经济领域，美国 对华限制的加强或是市场在春季的最大一次挑战，但也是信心全面修复的试金石；中国的新赛道在 萌芽，具备千亿美金市值潜力的新核心资产在扩容，同时传统赛道龙头当中约有3 0%的公司陆续出 现经营拐点；港股的行情还在早期，而前期相对滞涨的A股核心资产正加速出清，未来GARP策略 或接力极致弹性策略，中国的核心资产有望迎来春天。因此，我们沿着科技创新推动产业价值重 构、供给侧改革引导行业供需出清以及制度优化释放消费潜能三个视角，从科技、工业和消费板块 中甄选出"新核心资产3 0 "组合，作为春季的配置重心，我们认为在信心全面修复后，"好公 司"与"普通公司"之间的分化将远远超过"好行业"与"普通行业"之间的分化。 也是信心全面修复的试金石 4月开始美国对华政策不确定性可能会有明显提升。需要留意的风险点主要包括《美国优先贸易 政策备忘录》调查结果在4月初发布，《美国优先投资政策》备忘录的落实以及半导体领域可能 的进一步出口禁令和限制。我们复盘了2 0 1 ...