本报记者 闫立良 "随着外部环境急剧变化，同时国内房地产市场尚未企稳、物价运行持续低迷，二季度货币政策优先目标将逐步过渡到稳 就业稳增长，宽松空间明显打开。"5月20日，毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，预计年内 降准降息仍有空间，但力度及节奏将根据中美关税进展、二季度出口和经济表现等关键变量相机抉择。 促进价格水平合理回归 5月7日，央行出台包括降准降息、创设并加力实施系列结构性货币政策工具在内的一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。 蔡伟认为，一季度出于前期增量政策效果仍在逐渐显现、外部环境尚不明朗以及优先稳定汇率波动风险和银行息差压力等 综合考量，央行对于货币政策的总量操作较为克制，保持"适度宽松"的政策取向不变。 在后续可能的降准降息空间释放上，蔡伟分析称，降准方面，央行将配合财政协同发力，并可能通过加大买断式逆回购等 进一步补充流动性。降息方面，央行将综合考量国内外经济形势、利率风险与金融市场波动等因素。 最近三期货币政策执行报告均强调"把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策的重要考量，推动物价保持在合理水平"。蔡伟 表示，这说明当前物价是央行的重要关注指标。 在央行5月9日发布的 ...

据日本农林水产省公布的数据，截至19日，日本大米价格已经历连续十多周上涨，较去年同期高出大约 1倍。日本民众表示，大米涨价给日常饮食造成了直接冲击，不少人甚至减少米饭摄入。 ...

Core Insights - The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Huw Pill, indicated that structural changes in price and wage-setting behavior have increased the inherent persistence of inflation in the UK [1] Group 1 - The structural changes in the economy are contributing to a more sustained inflation process [1] - The comments suggest a shift in how prices and wages are determined, which may have long-term implications for inflation [1] - The statement reflects ongoing concerns about inflation dynamics in the UK economy [1]

英国央行首席经济学家皮尔：考虑到我们面临的物价稳定风险的平衡状况，季度降息的速度过快。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.6% month-on-month in April, which was worse than the expected decrease of 0.3% [1]

我认为此次降息是一次充满信心的决策。 现在面临一系列新的挑战。 澳洲联储主席：物价上涨已经放缓，这"是非常好的消息"。 准备在必要时采取进一步行动。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing decline in Producer Price Index (PPI) and the stagnation of Consumer Price Index (CPI), indicating a low economic environment in China [1][2][3] - In April, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 0.5%, driven mainly by service prices, such as airfare before the May Day holiday [1][2] - The PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year in April, marking the 31st consecutive month of negative PPI, with the decline in PPI covering both traditional production materials and living materials [1][2] Group 2 - Economic experts suggest that the low price levels negatively impact corporate revenue, profits, and government tax revenues, necessitating stronger macroeconomic policies to promote reasonable price recovery [2][4] - The GDP deflator index has been negative for eight consecutive quarters, indicating a prolonged period of price decline, surpassing the previous record of seven quarters during the Asian financial crisis [2][5] - The external environment, particularly the impact of U.S. tariffs, has added complexity to the domestic economic situation, with experts emphasizing the need to boost domestic demand to stimulate economic growth [3][4] Group 3 - Recommendations for policy adjustments include increasing residents' income and enhancing consumer confidence, with a focus on stabilizing asset prices and expanding effective investment [4][5] - The articles suggest implementing a comprehensive set of policies to boost consumption, including fiscal spending directed towards public consumption sectors like healthcare and education [5] - Structural reforms are proposed to improve market mechanisms and encourage the exit of outdated production capacities, aiming to restore reasonable price levels in various industries [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange 2025 Global Investor Conference highlighted investment opportunities in China, focusing on the theme of "New Quality Productivity: Investment Opportunities in China - Open Innovation in the Shenzhen Market" [1] Group 1: Economic Policies and Reforms - The Chinese government has implemented a series of policies since last year to break the low-price cycle risk, forming a "three-part series" centered on "debt restructuring, boosting consumption, and reforming to stabilize confidence" [1][2] - The first step involves debt restructuring to solidify the economic foundation, including a plan for local government hidden debt replacement to alleviate fiscal pressure and signal a commitment to risk prevention [1] - The second step focuses on increasing fiscal spending to stimulate consumption, with a substantial rise in the fiscal deficit ratio this year, directing more funds towards consumer support areas such as expanding social security coverage and optimizing consumption subsidy policies [1] Group 2: Market Confidence and Private Sector Activation - The third step aims to stabilize market expectations through institutional reforms, including recent meetings with private enterprises, enhancing transparency in the supervision of technology innovation companies, and introducing regulations related to the private economy [2] - These measures are designed to invigorate the private economy and technology innovation enterprises, thereby solidifying the foundation for economic growth from a microeconomic perspective [2]

日本内阁府发布的初步统计结果显示，经季节调整后，日本2025年一季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）环 比下降0.2%，按年率计算下降0.7%。这是日本经济时隔一年再次出现负增长。 此外，美国的关税政策也对日本国内的消费心理和企业的盈利预期产生潜在影响。虽然这种情况尚未在 一季度经济数据中体现，但后续对经济前景的悲观情绪，已在一季度的经济表现中隐约可见。 目前，日本和美国就关税问题展开谈判，但双方谈判前景并不明朗。如果汽车关税持续存在，日本经济 在二季度后将面临巨大下行压力，这也会影响国际市场对日本经济前景的信心，不利于日本企业发展和 经济复苏。 日美关税谈判的核心聚焦于汽车关税问题。汽车制造业是日本支柱产业，占其制造业产值50%，行业上 下游就业人口达558万，且美国是日本汽车最大海外市场，日本对美汽车及零部件出口约占对美出口总 额30%。若美国对汽车及零部件加征25%关税，日本车企年利润将缩水近300亿美元，丰田、日产等头 部企业利润会暴跌，同时还会波及汽车零部件供应商、原材料物流等庞大上下游产业链。 北京商报综合报道 16日，日本东京，人们在购物中心内。 分析指出，导致一季度日本经济低迷主要有两方面的原因。其 ...

核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 黄金区间震荡，铜、油震荡上行。 内需： 房销量改善，而车回落；服务消费同比多边际改善。 ① 新房销量增速升，二手房和乘用车降，家电销售均价多有上行。5月新房销量增速降幅继续收窄，而二手房延续价升量跌。商品消费中，乘用车零售回落、而批 发上升，半钢胎开工率大幅回升至正常区间。家电月均销售均价同比增速上行。 ② 节后服务消费需求下降，但同比多有改善。上周电影票房收入下降，但同比降幅收窄；酒店每间可售房均价下降，但较去年水平同期略高；商圈人流指数略升， 同比增速上行。 外需： 中美关税超预期下调，对美直接出口回升。 ① 本周中美关税水平超预期下调，其中对等关税涉及的税率，当下实际征收10%，剩下24%的关税暂停实施。关税回落导致转口贸易逆转，东南亚港口停靠量同比 转弱；美国自中国进口货物到港量同比转升，指向对美直接出口回升。 ②考虑到特朗普贸易政策朝令夕改，其暂停的24%关税后续仍可能继续征收，当下抢出口行为仍将持续，并支撑我国出口。 生产： 贸易谈判取得实质性进展，市场情绪有所提振。 ① 钢铁方面，本周贸易谈判新进展提振市场情绪，叠加部分钢厂调高出厂价格，本周高炉开工率有所下降 ...