▲美国总统特朗普 降息绝佳时机？ 特朗普预计美联储本周将"大幅降息" 特朗普9月14日表示："现在是降息的绝佳时机"。他此前曾要求美联储将目前4.25%至4.50%的利率"降低到1%左右"，并因其要求未得满足而公开称美联储主 席鲍威尔为"傻瓜"。 市场方面也预期美联储9个月来将首次降息，因为一系列令人失望的数据正加剧人们对劳动力市场可能陷入更严重放缓的担忧。 支持降息的理由来自日益"快冷"的就业数据。根据最新数据，美国当周初申请失业金人数意外飙升至26.3万，创下近两年最高纪录。而此前的数据也为降息 铺平了道路：8月新增非农就业人数降至2.2万人，同时劳工统计局的年度修正显示，截至2025年3月的一年内，非农就业人数较初值下修了91.1万人，创下 2000年以来最大的修正幅度。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间9月14日，美国总统特朗普对记者表示，他预计美联储将在本周的会议上宣布"大幅降息"。如果特朗普的预测成真， 这将是美联储自去年12月以来首次降息。 美联储将于9月16日和17日召开货币政策会议，市场普遍预计美联储届时将开启新一轮降息。当前市场关注的焦点已转向降息的幅度与节奏。分 析人士普遍认为，美联储本周面临着 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold is consolidating at a high level while silver is taking over and strengthening [4]. - The inflation data announced last week was generally in line with expectations, with the CPI rising and the PPI falling, which strengthened the expectation of a September interest - rate cut [4]. - Multiple data in September showed a weak employment market in the US, further confirming the prospect of a September interest - rate cut and pushing up the price of gold [4]. - There is speculation about a 50 - bp interest - rate cut, but it is more likely to have multiple interest - rate cuts within the year, with a neutral expectation of three cuts [4]. - The trade environment is deteriorating, and the long - term driver for gold remains clear due to factors such as the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, and central banks' gold purchases [4]. - Gold and silver are likely to show a strong trend as the interest - rate cut approaches and there are concerns about Trump's interference in the Fed's independence, but short - term adjustments due to profit - taking should be noted [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: - For沪金2510, the current price is 834.00, up 3.22 (0.39%) from the previous close, with a position of 114,423 and a trading volume of 165,360 [2]. - For沪金2512, the current price is 836.00, up 3.16 (0.38%) from the previous close, with a position of 210,404 and a trading volume of 107,160 [2]. - **Silver Futures**: - For沪银2510, the current price is 10,051.00, up 253.00 (2.58%) from the previous close, with a position of 203,343 and a trading volume of 301,985 [2]. - For沪银2512, the current price is 10,075.00, up 254.00 (2.59%) from the previous close, with a position of 353,668 and a trading volume of 196,315 [2]. Spot Market - **Gold Spot**: - Shanghai Gold T + D's previous - day closing price was 826.09, down 3.63 (- 0.44%) [2]. - London Gold's previous - day closing price was 831.58, down 1.70 (- 0.20%) [2]. - **Silver Spot**: - Shanghai Silver T + D's previous - day closing price was 9,772.00, down 12.00 (- 0.12%) [2]. - London Silver's previous - day closing price was 41.50, up 0.36 (0.87%) [2]. Inventory - The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 50,151 kg, an increase of 4,200 kg [2]. - The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver is 1,240,187 kg, a decrease of 11,983 kg [2]. - COMEX gold inventory remains unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory increases by 1,384,668 [2]. Related Market Data - The US dollar index is 97.5299, down 0.32% [2]. - The S&P index is 6,587.47, up 0.85% [2]. - The US Treasury yield is 4.01, down 0.74% [2]. - Brent crude oil is 66.31, up 0.01% [2]. - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1129, down 0.10% [2]. Derivatives - The position of spdr gold ETF is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1 ton [2]. - The position of SLV silver ETF is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1 ton [2]. - CFTC speculators' net position in silver is 33,486, an increase of 481 [2]. - CFTC speculators' net position in gold is 32,895, a decrease of 1,451 [2]. Macro News - There is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, and a very slim chance of a 50 - bp cut [3]. - Rick Rieder of BlackRock is among the top candidates for the next Fed chair and has advocated a 50 - bp interest - rate cut [3]. - The US's 15% "reciprocal tariff" on most EU goods has impacted Italy's pharmaceutical export industry, with an estimated cost increase of up to 19.5 billion euros [3].

这位律师在周六的文件中指出："美联储等中央银行的独立性并非凭空而来：即便只是'政治干预'的表 象，也可能摧毁对经济增长与稳定至关重要的投资者信心，而这种信心一旦受损，便无法挽回。" 美国司法部在周日下午提交的法律文件中表示："库克未能就其抵押贷款协议表面上存在的矛盾陈述作 出任何解释，仅此一点就足以成为中止该特殊初步禁令的理由。" 然而，就在特朗普提交这份新文件的数天前，曝光文件显示，库克曾将上述引发争议的佐治亚州房产描 述为"度假屋"。这份2021年5月的贷款估算文件由一家信用社出具，时间恰在库克购置该房产的数周 前。文件明确显示，她当时已告知贷款机构，该房产并非其主要居所。美国司法部在此次提交的文件 中，未对这一关键信息作出回应。 库克的律师Abbe Lowell已于周六提交文件，就特朗普的中止请求作出最终反驳。他多次强调，若法庭 允许特朗普以"未经证实且动机存疑"的指控解雇一名经济学家，美联储的独立性将彻底瓦解。 Lowell表示："倘若本法院批准临时中止令，将成为司法系统发出的首个信号——表明我们的政府体系 已无法保障美联储的独立性。届时，总统将可凭借同样站不住脚的借口解雇美联储理事会的其他成员， 美 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, with a total expected reduction of 75 basis points for the year [2][3] - Economic indicators, including inflation driven by tariff policies and a weakening labor market, have prompted discussions among institutional investors regarding global asset allocation strategies [2][3] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have arisen, particularly in light of political pressures from President Trump, which could impact long-term market stability and investor confidence [3][4] Group 2 - Gold prices have surged recently, driven by fears regarding U.S. fiscal sustainability and the independence of the Federal Reserve, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 35% [5] - Institutional investors are increasingly turning to gold as a hedge against political risks affecting monetary policy, with significant demand for gold ETFs and mining stocks [5] - The weakening U.S. dollar and potential for accelerated foreign capital inflow into Chinese equities are anticipated as the Fed's rate cuts may lead to a global capital rebalancing [6][7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts, with a likely reduction of 25 basis points during the upcoming meeting, marking the first cut since December 2024 [2][3] - Institutional investors are concerned about the implications of the Fed's independence being challenged, which could affect long-term market stability and asset valuations [4][5] - The anticipated interest rate cuts may lead to increased foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market, as the dollar faces systemic downward pressure [6][7] Group 2 - Gold prices have surged recently, driven by concerns over the Fed's independence and expectations of rate cuts, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 35% [5][6] - The weakening dollar and rising inflation expectations are contributing to a shift in global capital flows, potentially benefiting emerging markets like China [6][7] - The market is likely to price in the upcoming changes in domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) and corporate Return on Equity (ROE) as the Fed's leadership changes in 2026 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts, which may accelerate foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market [2][12]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points during the upcoming meeting, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [4][5]. - Economic indicators leading up to the Fed's meeting show inflation driven by tariff policies and a weakening labor market [5]. - Predictions suggest that the core CPI inflation rate may rise to approximately 3.3% by the end of 2025, with the Fed likely to adopt a gradual approach to rate cuts [5][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have emerged, particularly in light of political pressures from figures like former President Trump [9]. - Investors are increasingly wary of the long-term risks associated with the politicization of monetary policy, which could undermine the Fed's credibility and affect market valuations [9][10]. - Gold prices have surged, reflecting investor concerns over the Fed's independence and the potential for inflation, with gold achieving nearly 35% growth this year [11][10]. Group 3: Global Capital Flows and Emerging Markets - The weakening of the US dollar is expected to lead to a rebalancing of global capital, with increased demand for foreign investment in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [13][14]. - The anticipated acceleration of rate cuts post-2026 could create favorable conditions for capital to flow into undervalued emerging markets, aligning with domestic policy initiatives [14].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a monetary policy meeting on September 16-17, with uncertainty surrounding whether it will initiate interest rate cuts and the future monetary policy path [1] - A political struggle over control of the Federal Reserve is intensifying, particularly regarding the status of Governor Lisa Cook, who was dismissed by Trump, and the nomination of Stephen Milan [1][10] - The outcome of the court ruling on Cook's dismissal and the Senate vote on Milan's nomination will significantly impact the decision-making process at the upcoming meeting [8][12] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision-making body, the Federal Open Market Committee, typically consists of 12 members, including 7 governors [5] - Cook's legal battle against her dismissal could prevent her from participating in the upcoming meeting if the Justice Department's appeal is successful [5][12] - The urgency of the Justice Department's appeal is highlighted by the need for a decision before the meeting, which will determine Cook's ability to vote [5][8] Group 2 - Stephen Milan's nomination is pending a Senate vote on September 15, and even if approved, there is uncertainty about whether he can complete the necessary paperwork in time to attend the meeting [8][10] - The rapid pace of Milan's nomination process, taking only 39 days from announcement to Senate vote, suggests a possibility of his participation [8] - The presence of both Cook and Milan at the meeting will influence not only the immediate interest rate decision but also the market's expectations for future monetary policy [14]

这剧情反转之快，简直比好莱坞大片还刺激！ 一夜惊魂！一场闹剧，一地鸡毛 7月16日这天，全球金融市场可真是坐了一回惊心动魄的过山车！ 白宫官员前脚刚放出风声，说特朗普可能要炒美联储主席鲍威尔的鱿鱼，后脚美股就"哗啦"一下直线跳 水，黄金价格蹭蹭往上蹿，美元指数直接玩起"自由落体"。 可谁能想到，这出戏还没唱到高潮，特朗普自己就跳出来喊了声"且慢"——解雇信？没写！人事调整？ 8个月后再说！ 要说这天晚上的华尔街，那真是"风声鹤唳，草木皆兵"。白宫官员一句"特朗普可能很快解雇鲍威尔"， 就像往油锅里泼了盆冷水，噼里啪啦炸开了锅。 美股三大指数瞬间"变脸"，道指、纳指、标普500齐刷刷往下掉，那架势仿佛天要塌了似的。 黄金市场倒是乐开了花，金价一路狂飙到3377美元/盎司，日内涨幅1.64%，创下近期新高。 为啥？全世界的投资者都在用脚投票——美联储要是换了掌门人，货币政策还不得跟着特朗普的推特 转？ 可就在这时，特朗普自己倒是先坐不住了。7月17日一早，他对着镜头拍着胸脯说："我可没打算现在解 雇鲍威尔！除非他搞欺诈！" 这话一出口，市场立马来了个"急刹车"。美股收复失地，黄金涨幅缩水，美元指数也止跌回升。 你 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250914 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 9 月 FOMC 前瞻：降息已成定局，关注点阵 图指引与美联储独立性 ◼ 美国 8 月 CPI：基本符合预期，关税冲击影响渐弱。本周四公布的美国 8 月 CPI 同比+2.9%，预期+2.9%，前值+2.7%；环比+0.4%，预期+0.3%， 前值+0.2%。核心同比+3.1%，预期+3.1%，前值+3.1%；核心环比+0.3%， 预期+0.3%，前值+0.3%。数据公布后，市场押注降息加码，美债利率与 美元指数下降，黄金、美股与美铜上涨。从结构上看，①核心商品中对 关税更敏感，6、7 月大幅上涨的家具、服饰、休闲商品在本次表现不佳， 进一步强化了"关税的冲击是一次性"的论点。②高利率环境下美国房 价保持低位震荡，这意味着居住通胀未来的趋势亦是低位震荡，而本期 居住通胀的主要分项自住房折算 OER 和租金 RPR 的反弹更像是震荡趋 势中的"插曲"。③剔除掉机票酒店后的超核心通胀本次基本没有增长， 反映出需求的疲软，也与近期劳务市场的下行相对应。向前看，在不同 通胀环比中枢路径下，未来 2 个月美国 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has indicated that there will be no changes in the short term, and market expectations for preventive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting in September are deemed correct [1] - The importance of the Federal Reserve's independence is emphasized, as it is crucial for maintaining credibility in economic policy, which in turn lowers borrowing costs and supports sustainable growth [1] - The theme of currency depreciation remains unchanged, with gold prices surpassing $3,650, reflecting a monthly increase of 6% and a year-to-date increase of 40% [1] Group 2 - The current economic environment suggests a favorable outlook for the stock market, contingent on strong income and profit growth, regulatory relaxation, healthy balance sheets, record capital expenditure, lower policy rates, and upcoming fiscal stimulus measures [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 4%, which is considered high, and the market has nearly priced in the peak of dovish sentiment relative to current data [1] - A significant sell-off is anticipated if future predictions hold true, indicating potential volatility in the market [1]