共和党内部直接倒戈。参议员蒂利斯公开放话：不解决这个调查，休想通过任何美联储新人选！阿拉斯加议员穆尔科斯基更狠，骂政府"纯粹是胁迫"。为啥 议员们敢和总统唱反调？因为他们背后的金主是石油巨头、金融大鳄，鲍威尔维持利率稳定，才是他们的摇钱树。 这场斗争还炸出一堆大佬联名护驾。三位前美联储主席、四位前财长，连国际清算银行都要发声明挺鲍威尔。欧洲央行、英格兰银行这些国际队友也坐不住 了——万一美联储被政治绑架，全球金融市场都得崩盘。 特朗普现在进退两难：鲍威尔的美联储主席任期今年5月结束，但他作为理事的任期能撑到2028年。要是鲍威尔铁了心不走人，特朗普连塞自己人都没戏。 这场面就像黑帮老大想清理门户，却发现小弟们早被对手收买了。 特朗普又捅马蜂窝了！这次他瞄准的不是政治对手，而是美联储主席鲍威尔——那个掌管美国印钞机的男人。最近，美国司法部突然给美联储发了一封传 票，威胁要刑事起诉鲍威尔，罪名是他在国会作证时对美联储大楼翻修工程"说了谎"。一个办公楼装修项目，预算从19亿飙到25亿美元，被特朗普阵营狂喷 是"凡尔赛宫级别的奢华装修"。 但明眼人都知道，装修超支只是个借口。鲍威尔直接捅破窗户纸："他们搞刑事调查，就 ...

美联储的动作往往牵动全球的经济神经，而它新的掌门人的人选也备受关注，到底谁会出任，特朗普还在遮遮掩掩。目前，浮出水面的几大候选人各自秉 持怎样的路线和立场，特朗普更中意谁，美联储主席换人又会如何扰动世界的金融秩序？ Part. 新任美联储主席的出炉，世界关注。1月21日，特朗普乘专机飞往瑞士达沃斯前，记者还在追问他人选是否已经确定。 美国总统特朗普： 1 过去的一年，特朗普和现任美联储主席鲍威尔的矛盾几乎人尽皆知。无论特朗普如何进行攻击，鲍威尔就是不跟随他的步伐降息。为了逼迫鲍威尔降息， 特朗普已经或是公开发言，或是发帖，说了很多难听的话。他说鲍威尔精神有点问题，说他无能，糟糕透顶。 中国商务部研究院学术委员会副主任 张建平： 我会择日宣布，但我知道我想要谁。 此前，美财长贝森特曾放风，特朗普可能会在达沃斯论坛宣布新一届美联储主席的提名。整个世界都在等着结果的最终揭晓。当特朗普带着悬念，带着对 欧洲的关税威胁登上飞机时，贝森特却突然改了口，他称，特朗普最快将于下周做出决定。经过遴选，进入决赛圈的有四人，总统都已经见过了。一时 间，更大的悬念产生了，达沃斯论坛本可能成为特朗普提名新任美联储主席的最佳场合之一，特 ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the new Federal Reserve Chairman is highly anticipated globally, with President Trump considering several candidates and the potential impact on financial markets being a key concern [1][2]. Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chairman - Four main candidates have emerged for the position: Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh, and Rick Rieder, with Hassett previously seen as the frontrunner [6][9]. - Hassett has a close relationship with Trump and has supported his policies, but his past predictions have been criticized, which may affect his candidacy [6][7]. - Kevin Warsh, who previously served on the Federal Reserve Board, has gained traction and is now considered a strong contender, especially after a favorable meeting with Trump [9][10]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump's desire for a new chairman aligns with his need for lower interest rates to stimulate the economy ahead of the midterm elections, with a target rate of 1% compared to the current 3.75% [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve's independence is under scrutiny, especially following Powell's public defense against Trump's criticisms, which has implications for market stability and the credibility of U.S. monetary policy [14][19]. - The outcome of the chairman selection process is crucial not only for the U.S. economy but also for global economic stability, as the Federal Reserve's decisions influence central banks worldwide [5][20].

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Fed and the implications for interest rates and inflation, particularly following the unexpected sidelining of leading candidate Hassett [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Candidate Profiles - Bond investors are under pressure as they bet on a successor who would lower borrowing costs, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields outperforming long-term yields based on this assumption [1]. - The market's reaction to Trump's reluctance to nominate Hassett, who was seen as a proponent of lower rates, led to a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries and reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts this year [1]. - Candidates for the Fed chair position are viewed as having varying degrees of dovishness, with differing opinions on their potential impact on the market [2]. Group 2: Candidate Analysis - Walsh is seen as a hawkish candidate whose appointment could raise yields, potentially pursuing a policy of rate cuts while selling Fed bond holdings, which may negatively affect long-term inflation-linked bonds [3][4]. - Reed is initially perceived as dovish due to his lesser-known policy stance, with potential for a weaker dollar and a steeper U.S. yield curve if appointed [5][6]. - Waller, a more traditional choice, is viewed as a safe option with minimal need for market re-pricing, likely leading to a slight decrease in long-term yields if appointed [8]. - Hassett's potential nomination is complicated by his perceived loyalty to Trump, which could lead to lower front-end rates and higher long-end rates, although his confirmation prospects have diminished due to political backlash [9].

Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks are expected to remain high, with the U.S. continuing to be a major risk point due to the unpredictable nature of its policies under the Trump administration [7][19] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and internal political pressures in Europe may lead to increased difficulties in achieving policy coordination [19] - The expansion of geopolitical risks into technology, economy, and trade sectors is noted, indicating a broader impact on global economic and trade networks [16][19] Group 2: Tariff Policies - Tariff policies are anticipated to have a continued impact on international trade, with potential for easing but still significant disruptions expected [21][30] - The U.S. tariff rate is projected to decrease from a theoretical value of 16.8% to 9.3% if the IEEPA tariffs are deemed unconstitutional, which could improve inflation and GDP outlooks [23][28] - Global trade growth is forecasted to slow down, with the WTO predicting a decline in trade growth rate to 0.5% in 2026 [30][32] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, particularly with potential candidates for the next chair being more aligned with Trump’s policies, which could undermine its autonomy [8][38] - Historical trends suggest that a loss of independence could lead to increased inflation risks and market volatility [34][45] - The market is closely monitoring the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair, with candidates like Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh having significant implications for monetary policy [38][41] Group 4: Technology Sector Bubble Risks - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI, has seen significant stock price increases, leading to concerns about potential bubbles due to high valuations [2][48] - As of January, the S&P 500 PE ratio is at 25.6, indicating elevated valuation levels compared to historical averages [48][50] - The concentration of market capitalization among the top tech companies remains high, with the top ten companies accounting for 32.8% of the market, raising concerns about market fragility [49][51] Group 5: Fiscal Sustainability Concerns - Concerns regarding fiscal sustainability have intensified, with long-term debt rates remaining high and fiscal deficits expected to persist [9][46] - The trend of expansive fiscal policies is likely to continue, driven by economic pressures from trade wars and increased defense spending [9][46] - The K-shaped recovery in the stock market is anticipated to persist, with interest rate-sensitive sectors facing ongoing pressure [9][46]

Group 1: Core Insights - The conflict between the White House and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is fundamentally a power struggle over policy control rather than merely a debate about central bank independence [1] - The Trump administration aims to lower interest rates to 1% to mask the growing sovereign debt risk and maintain asset bubbles, facilitating a hidden transfer of wealth through financial repression [1] - The Federal Reserve has become a key institution that can still check presidential power, especially as the influence of Congress and public institutions has weakened [1] Group 2: Historical Context of Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence became a widely accepted concept only recently, with New Zealand's 1990 legislation establishing an inflation-targeting framework being a significant milestone [2] - The historical context of central bank independence is rooted in the high inflation periods of the 1970s and 1980s, where governments delegated tough policy decisions to central banks to avoid political backlash [2] - There are ongoing debates about the theoretical basis and practical effectiveness of central bank independence, particularly regarding conflicting policy goals and limited control over key economic variables [2] Group 3: Limitations and Critiques of Central Banks - Central banks' reliance on core analytical models like NAIRU and the Phillips curve has faced criticism for their predictive effectiveness in real-world scenarios [3] - The decision-making bodies of central banks often consist of economists with similar academic backgrounds, which may limit the diversity and effectiveness of policy-making [3] - Historical performance of central banks has been questioned, particularly regarding their responses to economic crises and the long-term effects of their policies on asset bubbles and social inequality [4] Group 4: Political Motivations and Wealth Transfer - Trump's strategy involves appointing Federal Reserve governors who support his interest rate policies, aiming to obscure sovereign debt pressures and sustain market bubbles [6] - Lowering interest rates allows the government to continue expansionary fiscal policies, benefiting political and business supporters while diluting debt burdens through negative real interest rates [6] - This approach mirrors Trump's previous business strategies, characterized by high leverage and risk-taking, suggesting a continuity in his operational mindset [6] Group 5: Power Balance and Democratic Accountability - The debate over central bank independence reflects a restructuring of power balance within the U.S. political system, with the Federal Reserve serving as a critical check on executive power [7] - There is a growing populist sentiment favoring low interest rates and high growth, alongside increasing skepticism towards technocratic elites and their decision-making processes [7] - The surface-level discussion about central bank independence masks deeper issues of power distribution, democratic accountability, and institutional checks within the political economy [7]

新华财经纽约1月22日电（记者 刘亚南）美国最高法院21日上午就特朗普政府解雇美国联邦储备委员会 理事莉萨·库克案举行约两个小时的口头辩论，这场关于美联储理事去留问题的辩论，显示出近期联邦 政府与美联储之间的博弈持续升温。 由于美国最高法院就此案的裁决结果将产生重要影响，除库克本人出庭外，美联储主席鲍威尔和前美联 储主席伯南克等重要人物也出现在口头辩论现场。 美国财政部长贝森特指责鲍威尔越界。他认为，鲍威尔正在让美联储"政治化"，鲍威尔的出现是一 个"政治宣示"。 来源：中国金融信息网 保守派大法官布雷特·卡瓦诺认为，如果总统可以不经司法审查、无需履行程序并不提供救济渠道就作 出解职的决定，"将削弱美联储的独立性"。立场同样偏保守的大法官埃米·科尼·巴雷特表示，有部分经 济学家认为，如果库克被解职，将触发经济衰退。"在这样的案件中，我们应该如何考量公共利益？如 果有这种风险，我们是否应谨慎行事？" 库克的代理律师保罗·克莱门特在辩论中说，最高法院要取得平衡，应该倾向于让库克继续履职。库克 在住房抵押贷款上的问题最多是"因疏忽而造成的错误"。 库克在法庭辩论结束后发表声明说，这一案件关乎美联储依据证据和独立判断 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the conflict between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting how Trump's attempts to pressure the Fed for interest rate cuts backfired due to the independence of the Fed and support from Wall Street and some Republican lawmakers [1][3][17]. Group 1: Economic Context - By the second half of 2025, the U.S. economy is expected to decline, with manufacturing recovery being elusive, factory orders decreasing, and rising mortgage rates leading to a sluggish real estate market [3]. - Trump's anxiety about the upcoming 2026 midterm elections is driven by these negative economic signals, as he believes economic performance directly influences voter turnout [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Powell publicly stated that the inflation target has not been met and that interest rate policies must remain unchanged unless there is clear evidence of inflation decline, effectively rejecting Trump's requests [5]. - The Fed's independence is emphasized, with Powell asserting that monetary policy will not be altered due to political pressure [9][11]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - Trump's strategy to pressure Powell included initiating a Justice Department investigation into the Fed's renovation expenses, which was seen as an attempt to exert administrative pressure [9]. - Despite Trump's expectations of support from the Republican Party, several moderate Republican lawmakers publicly backed the Fed's independence, isolating Trump politically [14]. Group 4: Institutional Framework - The independence of the Federal Reserve is a fundamental aspect of the U.S. financial system, as outlined in the Federal Reserve Act, which limits presidential power over monetary policy [17][19]. - Historical context shows that the Fed's independence is crucial to prevent short-term political influences on monetary policy, which could lead to inflation and market volatility [19].

美国总统特朗普2025年8月25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由宣布解除库克职务。此前，还没有其他总 统试图解雇在任的美联储理事。华盛顿特区联邦地区法院法官去年9月作出裁决，暂时阻止特朗普解除 库克职务，并随后得到哥伦比亚特区巡回上诉法院的支持。 当日辩论主要内容之一是，库克任现职以前在住房抵押贷款方面出现问题能否构成被解职理由。 美国司法部副总检察长约翰·索尔在代表联邦政府发言时说，一个金融监管者在金融交易中出现欺诈或 严重过失是解职的理由。针对库克的指控让人质疑，她继续担任美联储理事的"行为、适合性、能力和 胜任程度"。 美国最高法院21日上午就特朗普政府解雇美国联邦储备委员会理事莉萨·库克案举行约两个小时的口头 辩论，这场关于美联储理事去留问题的辩论，显示出近期联邦政府与美联储之间的博弈持续升温。 由于美国最高法院就此案的裁决结果将产生重要影响，除库克本人出庭外，美联储主席鲍威尔和前美联 储主席伯南克等重要人物也出现在口头辩论现场。 美国财政部长贝森特指责鲍威尔越界。他认为，鲍威尔正在让美联储"政治化"，鲍威尔的出现是一 个"政治宣示"。 自1913年成立以来，美联储保持一定程度的自主性，其运行资金自筹，不 ...

新华社纽约1月22日电 综述｜美联储理事去留难决 白宫美联储博弈加剧 新华社记者刘亚南 美国总统特朗普2025年8月25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由宣布解除库克职务。此前，还没有其他总 统试图解雇在任的美联储理事。华盛顿特区联邦地区法院法官去年9月作出裁决，暂时阻止特朗普解除 库克职务，并随后得到哥伦比亚特区巡回上诉法院的支持。 库克在法庭辩论结束后发表声明说，这一案件关乎美联储依据证据和独立判断或是屈从于政治压力，来 确定关键利率。她强调，只要仍在美联储，自己就将坚持不受政治影响的原则。 目前，美国最高法院尚未就此案作出裁决，多家媒体根据最高法院大法官在辩论中的提问和表态预测， 最高法院或倾向于继续让库克留任。 美国最高法院21日上午就特朗普政府解雇美国联邦储备委员会理事莉萨·库克案举行约两个小时的口头 辩论，这场关于美联储理事去留问题的辩论，显示出近期联邦政府与美联储之间的博弈持续升温。 由于美国最高法院就此案的裁决结果将产生重要影响，除库克本人出庭外，美联储主席鲍威尔和前美联 储主席伯南克等重要人物也出现在口头辩论现场。 美国财政部长贝森特指责鲍威尔越界。他认为，鲍威尔正在让美联储"政治化"，鲍威尔的出 ...