在凤凰湾区财经论坛2025前夕，上海交通大学上海高级金融学院实践教授胡捷表示，预计今年美联储可 能还将有两次降息，每次降息25个基点，而明年降息次数可能更多。他分析指出，当前通胀率形势相对 乐观，同时就业市场呈现走弱迹象。美联储在两者之间的权衡结果，或将促使它开启降息通道。 ...

Group 1 - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers expressed concerns that the Federal Reserve's policies are becoming too accommodative, emphasizing that the biggest risk facing the U.S. economy is inflation rather than the labor market [1] - Summers noted that the balance of risks has shifted towards inflation, stating that the current policy execution appears overly lenient compared to public perception [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in a year, Summers highlighted the need for vigilance against inflation, warning that the U.S. could deviate from its 2% inflation target [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's latest forecast report indicates an upward revision in inflation expectations for next year, with the PCE price index projected to rise by 2.6% in 2024, higher than the previous estimate of 2.4% [1] - Summers commented on the political pressure exerted by Trump and his allies on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, underscoring the necessity of maintaining a commitment to combating inflation [2] - He expressed uncertainty about the extent of concessions made by the Federal Reserve in response to political pressures, indicating that more decisive action is needed [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 4% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the weak labor market is the primary concern, and lowering rates will help the struggling workforce [1] - Despite slowing job growth, inflation remains high, and tariffs are impacting prices, indicating that the Fed is more worried about employment than inflation risks [1] Group 2 - Stephen Milan, a newly appointed Fed governor, cast the only dissenting vote, arguing for a 50 basis point cut instead [3] - Concerns about the Trump administration's tariff policies potentially driving inflation higher have led the Fed to maintain higher rates earlier this year [3] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a median forecast of a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts for the remaining two policy meetings of the year, with only one cut expected in 2026 [3] Group 3 - Analysts noted that the rate cut aligns with market expectations, but the outlook for further cuts remains uncertain due to potential inflation increases [5] - Liu Gang, Chief Analyst at CICC, stated that while the rate cut slightly supports employment risks, inflation is likely to rise in the coming months [5] Group 4 - Following the Fed's announcement, the U.S. stock market closed mixed, with analysts suggesting that the market's reaction was muted due to prior significant gains [7]

来源：川阅全球宏观 我们一直强调，降息是问题的开始，不是结束。降多了、降快了，通胀是风险；降少了、降慢了，特朗普是风险。点阵图暗示年内75bp降息，相较6月增 加了25bp，还是契合了鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上谨慎宽松的论调，但这和米兰及其背后白宫想要的150bp相差不小。美联储的独立性之争才刚刚开始。 往后看，劳动力市场降温与通胀粘性的"数据悖论"，米兰任命带来的政治博弈等都使得美联储的决策面临"两难"局面，也将后续宽松路径的走势推向复杂 化。在白宫的施压下，市场可能还是会时不时定价年内比75bp更多的降息。而从经济动态来看，我们依旧对持续宽松后的增长和通胀组合保持持续关注， 连续降息不会一帆风顺，在特朗普的政策组合下，"金发女郎式"的软着陆（增长复苏+低通胀）难度更大，"滞"和"胀"的按钮更容易被触发。 9月利率如期下调25bp，意料之外的是，美联储官员展现出了高度的团结性。此前市场预期的沃勒和鲍曼并未对此投出反对票，仅米兰一人支持降息 50bp，表明联储内部并未完全因受迫于政治压力而做出过度激进的表态。 但相较于降息本身，更值得关注的是会议传递出的政策信号。从会议声明、鲍威尔后续的表态以及点阵图上，本次会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is characterized as a "risk management-style cut," which appears somewhat "awkward" due to the contrast between economic forecasts and the rate cut path [1][2]. Economic Forecasts and Rate Path - The FOMC raised GDP growth expectations for 2025-2027, with 2025 and 2026 projected at 1.6% and 1.8% respectively, while lowering unemployment rate forecasts for 2026-2027 to 4.4% and 4.3% [2]. - Despite a more optimistic economic outlook, the rate path indicated a reduction of 25 basis points compared to June predictions, with a median forecast suggesting three rate cuts this year to 3.6% [2]. Employment Market Concerns - The decision for a more accommodative policy is primarily driven by significant deterioration in the employment market, with average job growth over the last three months at only 29,000, down from 99,000 [3]. - The FOMC shows major internal disagreements regarding the policy path, with six members favoring only one rate cut this year, while two support two cuts [3]. Powell's Hawkish Stance - Despite the dovish signals from the dot plot, Powell adopted a hawkish tone, downplaying the significance of the dot plot and emphasizing that it reflects individual forecasts rather than a predetermined policy path [4]. Inflation Concerns - Powell noted an increase in commodity price inflation, likely reflecting tariff impacts, and emphasized the FOMC's responsibility to prevent temporary price increases from evolving into persistent inflation issues [5]. Barclays' Expectations - Barclays maintains its baseline expectation that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December, primarily due to ongoing weak job growth and rising unemployment [6]. - For 2026, Barclays anticipates a pause in rate cuts until signs of easing monthly inflation data are observed, with further cuts expected in March and June [6].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 "风险管理式"降息落地 ——美联储 9 月议息会议点评 债券日报 2025 年 09 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 联系人：李阳 邮箱：liyang3@hcyjs.com 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】转债市场日度跟踪 20250917》 2025-09-17 《【华创固收】转债市场日度跟踪 20250916》 2025-09-16 《【华创固收】债券发行新范式：福田投控 RWA 债券简析》 2025-09-16 《【华创固收】转债市场日度跟踪 20250915》 2025-09-15 《【华创固收】"稳增长"预期逐步升温——8 月 经济数据解读》 2025-09-15 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 北京时间 9 月 18 日凌晨，美联储年内首次降息落地，将联邦基金利率目标区 间下调 25BP 至 4.0%-4.25%，储备余额利率、贴现利率下调至 4.15%、4.25%。 利率决议公布后，10 年期美债收益率 ...

鲍威尔9月17日例行新闻发布会要点总结： 1、货币政策：今天的行动是一种风险管理类型的降息。FOMC对降息50个基点呼声的支持并不多。 2、点阵图：极为罕见的经济局势导致联储利率预测分歧大。 3、劳动力市场：经过修订的就业数据意味着，劳动力市场不再那么稳固。失业率仍然偏低，但已经上 扬；就业人口增幅已经放缓，下行风险加重，就业市场指标表明下行风险是实质性的。人工智能 （AI）可能是招聘放缓的原因之一。 4、通胀：关税通胀的传导机制已经放缓，影响的力度也更小。"关税通胀顽固地存在"的可能性降低。 预计美国8月PCE通胀率同比上升2.7%，预计核心PCE同比上升2.9%。预计服务业将继续存在反通胀现 象。长期通胀预期像磐石一样稳固。 这是美联储今年开年以来六次FOMC会议首次决定降息，美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，虽然失业 率依然处于低位，但已经略有上升，新增就业岗位减少，就业面临的下行风险也在增加。与此同时，通 胀最近有所上升，仍然略高于正常水平。同时，美联储也决定继续缩减所持证券规模。 而他在问答环节则表示，今天联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）对降息50个基点呼声的支持并不多。 你们可以认为，今天的（宽松）行 ...

(文/陈济深 编辑/张广凯） 美国时间9月17日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基准利率下调至4%-4.25%。 这是美联储自去年9月开启降息后第四次降息，也是今年以来首次降息。 本次决议声明新增指出美国就业增长已放缓、失业率略升、就业下行风险增加、风险平衡已转变，删除劳动力市场稳健的表述。利率预测中位值显示联储预 计今年共降息三次，较上次增一次，即此次降息后，年内还有2次降息。 不过美国经济基本面的变化也使得鲍威尔不得不选择降息。 尽管本次降息25个基点符合市场预期，但无论美国总统特朗普还是白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗都在近日公开呼吁美联储需要大幅降息。鲍威尔则对此在利率决议发 布后的记者发布会上明确表示这是一次预防性降息，后续没有必要快速降低利率，降息50个基点并未获得美联储成员广泛支持，但是其也表示极为罕见的经 济局势导致联邦利率预测分歧较大。 截至目前，特朗普还未对本次降息发表评论，不过在9月15日，其还在社交媒体上表示降息幅度"必须比想象的要大"。 本次议息会议中，由特朗普任命，9月16日才任职的美联储理事米兰上任第二天就火线投下反对票，也是本次唯一反对25个基点降息的理事。而根据美联储 发布的点阵图信息， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%, indicating a shift in the balance of risks due to a slowing labor market and rising unemployment [2][5][9]. Group 1: Employment and Labor Market - The U.S. labor market is transitioning towards an oversupply, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest since the end of 2021, driven by returning job seekers [3][6][9]. - Job gains have slowed, and the labor market is no longer considered stable, with the Federal Reserve acknowledging a shift in employment conditions [5][6]. - Wage growth is decelerating, indicating a decrease in workers' bargaining power [3][6]. Group 2: Inflation Trends - Inflation has shown a moderate increase, with service inflation stabilizing due to housing, while tariff costs are gradually reflecting in goods inflation, albeit at a mild rate [3][6][9]. - The Federal Reserve has noted that inflation remains elevated, with expectations for PCE inflation adjusted upwards to 2.6% for 2026 [5][8]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Economic activity is moderating, with the Federal Reserve raising its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6% and for 2026 to 1.8% [8]. - Consumer spending is reported to be higher than expected, although uncertainty and tariffs are impacting consumption decisions [8]. - The potential for further interest rate cuts remains, with expectations of two more cuts within the year as the labor market weakens and inflation risks persist [9].

美东时间9月17日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.25%至 4.5%降至4.00%至4.25%，降幅25个基点。 这是美联储今年开年以来六次FOMC会议首次决定降息，美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，虽然失业 率依然处于低位，但已经略有上升，新增就业岗位减少，就业面临的下行风险也在增加。与此同时，通 胀最近有所上升，仍然略高于正常水平。同时，美联储也决定继续缩减所持证券规模。 而他在问答环节则表示，今天联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）对降息50个基点呼声的支持并不多。 以下是鲍威尔记者会问答环节： Q1：你们今天欢迎了新的联储委员会成员Steven Myron，但他仍然保留了白宫职务。这是几十年来首 次有联储理事与白宫行政部门有直接联系。这是否削弱了美联储在日常事务中保持政治独立性的能力？ 此外，在这种情况下，你们要如何维持公众对美联储政治中立的信任？ 鲍威尔：我们今天确实迎来了一位新的委员会成员，就像我们历来会做的那样。委员会在追求双重使命 目标上仍然是团结一致的。我们坚定地致力于维护我们的独立性。除此之外，我没有更多要分享的。 Q2：你和其他美联储官员经常谈到关税对通 ...