1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth faces challenges such as rising steel inventory pressure and weakening power plant daily consumption [1][4]. - Inflation shows that the rebound momentum of pork prices is insufficient, and oil prices have significantly declined [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Rising Steel Inventory Pressure 3.1.1 Production: Weakening Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has weakened marginally. On September 9, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 869,000 tons, a 5.8% decrease from September 2. On August 26, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.469 million tons, a 0.3% increase from August 19 [4][11]. - The blast furnace operating rate has significantly declined. On September 5, the national blast furnace operating rate was 80.4%, a 2.8 - percentage - point decrease from August 29; the capacity utilization rate was 85.8%, a 4.2 - percentage - point decrease from August 29. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 88.8% on September 5, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from August 29 [4][14]. - The tire operating rate has declined for two consecutive weeks. On September 4, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 59.8%, a 4.1 - percentage - point decrease from August 28; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 67.5%, a 5.3 - percentage - point decrease from August 28. The operating rate of weaving machines in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to rise. On September 4, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 91.3%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from August 28, and the operating rate of downstream weaving machines was 62.4%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from August 28 [4][16]. 3.1.2 Demand: Rising Steel Inventory Pressure - The sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has turned positive month - on - month. From September 1 - 9, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 196,000 square meters, an 11.2% increase from the same period in August, a 15.4% increase from the same period in September last year, a 20.3% decrease from the same period in September 2023, and a 38.7% decrease from the same period in September 2022. After the Shenzhen property market new policy was released on September 5, the market activity increased [4][22]. - The retail trend of the auto market is stable. In August, retail sales increased by 3% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [4][25]. - Steel prices have rebounded. On September 9, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 1.2%, 0.8%, 2.1%, and 0.2% respectively compared with September 2. However, the steel inventory pressure has increased. On September 5, the inventory of five major steel products was 1.0777 million tons, a 313,000 - ton increase from August 29 [4][30]. - Cement prices continue to decline. On September 9, the national cement price index fell 1.0% compared with September 2. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions fell 3.4% and 4.9% respectively, weaker than the national average [4][30]. - Glass prices have rebounded. On September 9, the active glass futures contract price was 1,199 yuan per ton, a 5.0% increase from September 2 [4][36]. - The container shipping freight index has weakly stabilized. On September 5, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% compared with August 29, and the SCFI index fell 0.04% [4][38]. 3.2 Inflation: Insufficient Rebound Momentum of Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Insufficient Rebound Momentum of Pork Prices - The rebound momentum of pork prices is insufficient. On September 9, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.9 yuan per kilogram, a 0.3% increase from September 2. The month - on - month decline has narrowed [4][45]. - The agricultural product price index has steadily rebounded. On September 9, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.8% compared with September 2. By variety, eggs (up 3.4%) > vegetables (up 2.2%) > chicken (up 0.6%) > fruits (up 0.4%) > pork (up 0.3%) > beef (up 0.3%) > mutton (down 0.3%) [4][49]. 3.2.2 PPI: Significant Decline in Oil Prices - Oil prices have significantly declined. On September 9, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 66.9 and 62.6 US dollars per barrel, a 3.7% and 4.5% decrease respectively compared with September 9. Major oil - producing countries have decided to increase production, intensifying concerns about oversupply [4][52]. - Copper and aluminum prices have rebounded. On September 9, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively compared with September 2 [4][55]. - The domestic commodity index has declined month - on - month. On September 9, the Nanhua industrial products index fell 0.2% compared with September 2, and the CRB index fell 0.7% [4][56].

Core Insights - The report from the State Council indicates that economic growth and other indicators have progressed smoothly this year, with positive developments in employment, consumption, foreign trade, and residents' income [1][2] Economic Performance - The macroeconomic policies have been more proactive and effective in the first half of the year, leading to an all-around expansion of domestic demand and optimization of industrial development [1] - The report highlights that while the overall economic operation is stable, external shocks and internal risks are increasingly intertwined, raising the complexity and uncertainty of China's development environment [1] Policy Recommendations - The report outlines nine key areas for economic work in the second half of the year, including the implementation of central government policies, releasing domestic demand potential, and promoting deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] - It emphasizes the need for continuous reform and opening up, risk prevention in key areas, and comprehensive promotion of regional coordinated development and urban-rural integration [1] Consumer and Employment Focus - To boost domestic demand, the report suggests implementing special actions to stimulate consumption, removing restrictive measures, and introducing several measures to expand service consumption [2] - In terms of improving livelihoods, the report advocates for stabilizing employment and increasing income through policies like enhanced social security subsidies and large-scale vocational skills training [2]

Core Viewpoint - The UK government faces a challenging fiscal situation and must make careful choices regarding taxation and spending to foster economic growth, particularly in the banking sector which is already heavily taxed [2][3]. Group 1: Taxation and Economic Impact - The banking sector in the UK is subject to a tax rate of 48%, significantly higher than other regions such as New York at 26% and the highest in Europe at 39%, indicating a heavy tax burden [2]. - Increasing taxes on banks could hinder economic growth and lead to reduced hiring, lower productivity, and less credit issuance within the UK economy [3]. Group 2: Government Spending and Investment - There is a need for a balanced approach to taxation and spending, with a focus on investment in housing, infrastructure, and long-term productivity, which has been declining in the UK [6]. - The government is perceived as pro-business, with policies aimed at supporting the financial sector and fostering a conducive environment for business growth [8]. Group 3: Bond Yields and Fiscal Situation - UK guilt yields have been rising, influenced by global bond yields and the UK's relatively weaker fiscal situation, which makes it more susceptible to market fluctuations [4][5]. - The average maturity profile of UK bonds is longer at 15 years compared to 7 years for US treasuries, suggesting a need for strategic adjustments in managing long-term maturities [5]. Group 4: Trade Relations - The recent trade deal between the UK and the US has removed uncertainty and is viewed as beneficial for both countries, impacting various sectors including finance, technology, and pharmaceuticals [9].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **A-share market** in China, highlighting recent trends in investor sentiment and market performance amid potential government interventions and economic indicators. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investor Sentiment Decline**: A-share investor sentiment has decreased significantly, with the weighted MSASI dropping by **32 percentage points** to **126%** and the simple MSASI to **121%** compared to the previous cutoff date of August 28 [2][6][11]. 2. **Market Correction**: Reports of government measures to cool market sentiment have led to a notable market correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index down **1.3%**, CSI 300 Index down **2.1%**, and ChiNext index down **4.2%** on September 4 [4][11]. 3. **Turnover Trends**: Daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, and Northbound fell by **26%** (to **RMB 658 billion**), **25%** (to **RMB 2,366 billion**), and **17%** (to **RMB 166 billion**), respectively, indicating reduced trading activity [2][11]. 4. **Net Inflows**: Southbound trading recorded net inflows of **US$ 2.3 billion** from August 28 to September 3, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching **US$ 128.1 billion** and **US$ 3.4 billion**, respectively [3][11]. 5. **Earnings Misses**: The A-share market has seen a moderate miss in earnings, with a slight deterioration compared to Q1 results, indicating potential challenges in corporate fundamentals [11][12]. Additional Important Insights 1. **PMI Indicators**: August PMIs showed a continued growth slowdown, with construction PMI dropping to a record low of **49.1** and manufacturing PMI for consumer goods at **49.2**, reflecting weakening economic conditions [11]. 2. **Government Policy Impact**: The upcoming **15th Five-Year Plan** to be announced in mid-October is expected to be a critical checkpoint for assessing the need for structural reforms to support economic stability [11]. 3. **Monitoring Signposts**: Investors are advised to monitor key indicators such as onshore bond yields, policy catalysts focusing on consumption and social benefits, earnings trajectories, and potential government interventions to stabilize the market [11]. Conclusion - The A-share market is currently facing challenges due to declining investor sentiment, market corrections, and economic indicators suggesting a slowdown. The effectiveness of government interventions and upcoming policy announcements will be crucial in determining the market's trajectory in the near future.

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings believes that the framework peace agreement signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia is a positive step towards achieving a comprehensive agreement, reducing the risk of renewed military conflict [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Impact - The framework agreement is expected to create opportunities for trade growth in the medium term [1] Risk Assessment - In the short term, the agreement will not affect the ratings of either country, but it may lower the risk of military conflict [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK retail sales in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of 0.2%, although the three-month trend indicates a decline, reflecting consumer caution that hampers economic growth plans of the Labour government [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Data - The July retail sales data was delayed by two weeks due to the need for "further quality assurance" by the Office for National Statistics [1] - The June retail sales growth was revised down from 0.9% to 0.3% [1] - Despite the positive July figure, retail sales have declined over the past three months, indicating ongoing consumer caution [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the economy, and the Labour government cannot afford the consequences of continued consumer caution [1] - The UK government is striving to revive economic growth amidst rising borrowing costs and potential downward revisions of productivity forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility [1] - Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that the annual budget will be revealed on November 26, with economists estimating a need for tax increases or spending cuts of up to £51 billion (approximately $68 billion) to address the public finance shortfall [1] Group 3: Data Accuracy Concerns - Retail analysts and economists have raised concerns about the accuracy of official spending data, noting that it fails to account for seasonal variations and does not keep pace with shopping trends on social media platforms like TikTok [1]

据荷兰中央统计局公布，2024年，荷兰经济规模较2014年增长21.2%，人口增长了6.7%，人均GDP增长 13.6%，达到6.2万欧元，人均实际个人消费增长10.2%。2024年，欧盟经济较2014年增长17.7%，总人口 增长1.6%，人均GDP增长15.8%，人均实际个人消费增长13.3%。因此，荷兰十年的经济增长速度快于 人口增长速度，且高于欧盟平均水平，人均物质生活水平得到了提升。 ...

该机构表示，按现价计算，2025年第二季度的GDP达到105亿欧元。尽管这是自2024年第二季度以 来首次实现增长，但2025年第二季度的经济增长仍"温和"。经季节性和工作日调整后的GDP较 2025年 第一季度环比增长0.6%，同比增长0.5%。 （原标题：爱沙尼亚2025年第二季度经济增长0.9%） 据爱沙尼亚统计局报告显示，爱沙尼亚2025年第二季度国内生产总值同比增长0.9%，这是爱沙尼 亚一年来首次实现正增长的季度。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that despite facing severe external conditions, Bosnia's economic growth remains resilient, with a projected acceleration to 2.5% in 2024 and a return to a potential level of 3% by 2027 [1] - The report highlights that consumption levels were suppressed in the first quarter due to political uncertainty, but high-frequency indicators show a recovery in consumption starting from the second quarter [1] - Overall inflation is expected to rapidly decline to 1.7% in 2024 from 6.1% in 2023, before rising to 2.3% in May 2025, with core inflation stabilizing around 4% [1] Group 2 - The report identifies several downward risks to Bosnia's economic outlook, including trade uncertainties, a slowdown in the European economy, commodity price volatility, tightening global financial conditions, and escalating political tensions [2] - It emphasizes the need for Bosnia's fiscal policy to focus on medium-term consolidation, rebuilding buffer space, and improving the quality of public spending, supported by a strong structural reform agenda [2] - The report suggests that Bosnia should promptly implement priority actions for anti-money laundering organizations to avoid being placed on a gray list, which could hinder its ability to gain further growth benefits [2]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reveals widespread price increases across all Federal Reserve districts due to tariffs, indicating a complex impact on the U.S. economy [1][2] - The rising costs are particularly pronounced in industries with high import dependence, affecting daily living expenses for consumers [2] Group 2: Consumer and Employment Impact - Continuous price increases have led to a decline in real purchasing power for many households, particularly affecting low-income groups [3][4] - Consumer spending is stagnating or declining, which negatively impacts economic growth and leads to reduced hiring and potential layoffs in businesses [3][4] Group 3: Policy Dilemma - The U.S. government has imposed high tariffs, with the trade-weighted average tariff rate reaching 20.11%, significantly up from 2.44% at the beginning of the year [5][6] - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging decision between tightening monetary policy to combat inflation or loosening it to stimulate economic growth, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut [6][7]