肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 而美国劳工统计局的就业数据也并不弱，2025年5月美国的失业率为4.2%，虽然和今年1月的4.0%略有 增长，但环比变化不大。和2020年4月14.8%的失业率峰值相比，美国的劳动就业数据自2021年8月以 来，始终没有突破5%的阈值。目前的月度就业数据基本维持在2017年2月至2020年2月之间的水平，而 同期美国的联邦基金利率水平分别位于0.5%~0.75%和1.5%~1.75%区间。所以在核心通胀水平已接近目 标区间，而就业数据并不弱的支撑下，美联储保持4.25%~4.5%利率水平不变的决议似乎站不住脚。 为了更清晰观察这一反常行为背后的逻辑，还需要从美国经济增长数据中去寻找答案。同样是美国经济 分析局（BEA）的统计（公布季度数据），2025年一季度，美国国内生产总值的增速为-0.2%，而去年 四季度该数据还为2.4%。从2016年一季度至今，美国经济分析局共录得四次经济负增长，分别是2020 年一季度的-5.5%和当年二季度的-28.1%（但随即三季度变为正增长35.2%）、2022年一季度的-1.0%以 及本次2025年一季度-0.2%。 从成因 ...

Economic Growth and Consumption - The core viewpoint is that consumption will play a more significant role in driving economic growth this year, with retail sales expected to exceed a 5% growth rate, compared to 3.5% last year [2][5] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, the highest growth rate since 2024 [4][5] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively boosted sales, contributing 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories in the first five months [5] Foreign Trade Performance - The total value of goods trade in the first five months was 17.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, indicating better-than-expected foreign trade performance [10] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased significantly by 9.1% and 2.9%, respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 8.1% due to tariff increases [10] - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" has contributed to the positive foreign trade data, as companies rushed to export before anticipated tariff hikes [9][10] Service Consumption and Innovation - The shift in consumer demographics, particularly the rise of the post-95 and post-00 generations, is driving demand for emotional value and personalized consumption [6] - Service consumption can be categorized into survival, development, and experiential services, with a focus on promoting experiential services through innovative consumption scenarios [6] - Increasing public service investment and improving income distribution are essential for enhancing overall consumption [8] Policy Recommendations - To address weak price levels and stimulate consumption, targeted policy measures should include improving income distribution and increasing public consumption [8] - The government could consider expanding subsidies from durable goods to service consumption and providing direct consumption subsidies to low-income groups [5][8]

6月19日，英国央行召开货币政策会议，宣布维持基准利率4.25%不变。 英国央行如期维持利率不变 英国央行此次维持利率不变的决定，与周三美联储的行动一致。受此决策影响，英国国债和英镑汇率双 双下挫。 英国央行表示，英国GDP增长似乎仍然疲软，劳动力市场继续走软。迹象表明，随着时间的推移，疲软 的边际已经打开。薪酬增长指标继续放缓，同5月份一样，委员会预计今年剩余时间将显著放缓。 【导读】紧跟美联储，英国央行宣布维持基准利率4.25%不变 交易员还预计，到2026年夏季将有两次进一步的降息，届时利率将稳定在3.5%左右。 中信证券分析师指出，英国央行将锚定美联储政策路径，年内或仅降息两次。若全球经济因关税冲突再 度承压，政策宽松空间或被迫扩大。 英国央行正面临"通胀未达标"与"经济动能减弱"的双重挑战。当前政策利率4.25%仍处于紧缩区间，为 调整留足空间。短期来看，季度性降息将成为平衡通胀与增长的首选工具；中长期而言，全球贸易摩擦 与结构性失业问题或迫使央行采取更激进宽松措施。 挪威、瑞士央行宣布降息 在英国央行决议公布之前，欧洲地区部分其他国家的央行采取了降息行动。 日前，英国国家统计局公布的数据显示，英国 ...

Economic Data Overview - In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, marking the highest growth rate since 2024 [1][2] - For the first five months, China's total import and export value of goods was 17.94 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, indicating a sustained growth trend [1][5] Consumer Spending Insights - The growth in consumer spending in May exceeded expectations, driven by policies such as "old-for-new" exchanges and emerging consumption trends like "self-indulgent consumption" [2][3] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales, contributing 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories in the first five months [2][3] - The retail sales growth is expected to surpass 5% this year, compared to a 3.5% growth in the previous year, as consumption plays a more prominent role in economic growth [2][3] Trade Dynamics - The foreign trade performance in the first five months was better than expected, influenced by "export rushes" and a notable increase in exports to the EU and ASEAN, despite a decline in exports to the US due to tariffs [1][5][6] - Exports to ASEAN and the EU grew by 9.1% and 2.9% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 8.1% [5] Policy Recommendations - Future consumption policies could expand from durable goods to service consumption and provide direct subsidies to low-income groups [2][3] - To enhance service consumption, there is a need for innovative and diversified consumption scenarios, integrating new business models and products [3] Inflation and Economic Balance - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in the first five months, indicating a need for policies to promote economic balance and reasonable price recovery [4][5] - The weak price level is attributed to intense competition in investment-driven sectors, income distribution disparities, and underutilized public consumption [4][5] Gold Market Outlook - The outlook for gold prices is characterized by short-term volatility and long-term upward trends, influenced by interest rates, the dollar's performance, and geopolitical risks [8] - Recent trends show a significant increase in gold prices, with a rise of approximately 30% this year, supported by central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves [8]

Investment Commitment - Shell plc has pledged an investment of RM9 billion ($2.12 billion) in Malaysia over the next two to three years, enhancing its operations and creating high-skilled employment opportunities [1][7] - This investment is one of the most substantial foreign investment commitments in recent times, reflecting Malaysia's ability to attract multinational corporations in the Oils-Energy sector [2][8] Strategic Importance - The funding commitment reinforces Shell's long-standing relationship with Malaysia and indicates a deeper strategic alignment in its regional growth plans [3] - The investment is seen as an endorsement of Malaysia's macroeconomic stability and governance structure, boosting the country's appeal to other foreign investors [7][8] Economic and Employment Impact - The investment is expected to create high-skilled job opportunities, aligning with Malaysia's objectives to transition towards a more technologically advanced, skills-based economy [4] - Although specific project details are not disclosed, the initiative is positioned as a long-term driver of workforce development [4][9] Global Context and Risks - Shell is managing broader geopolitical risks that could impact global energy markets, particularly in light of tensions in the Middle East affecting shipping operations [5][6] - The company is closely monitoring developments and has contingency plans in place, highlighting the potential impact on global trade if critical shipping lanes are disrupted [6] Conclusion on Investment Landscape - Shell's RM9 billion investment marks a significant development in Malaysia's economic growth story and serves as a powerful indicator of international confidence in the country's leadership and economic policy [9]

智通财经APP获悉，英国央行以比预期更分裂的投票结果将利率维持在4.25%不变。政策制定者在日益 紧张的地缘政治背景下，权衡了英国疲软的就业市场和低迷的经济增长。这一决定使得8月可能降息25 个基点的预期升温。 自预算案发布以来，英国就业人数已减少逾25万 交易员加大了对进一步降息的押注，完全消化了2025年再降息两次、每次25个基点的预期。这一重新定 价导致英镑和英国国债收益率下滑，10年期国债收益率从之前的4.53%降至约4.52%。周四英镑兑美元 下跌0.1%，至1.341美元。 道明证券高级欧洲和英国利率策略师普贾·库姆拉在彭博电视上表示："8月降息似乎已成定局。"她预计 在下次会议前将看到薪资和通胀数据逐步下降，但鉴于英国央行坚持"渐进且谨慎"的做法，她警告称不 太可能像欧洲央行那样连续降息。 英国央行九人货币政策委员会中，六名成员投票支持维持利率不变，而外部委员斯瓦蒂·丁格拉、艾伦· 泰勒以及副行长戴夫·拉姆斯登则倾向于立即降息25个基点。 会议纪要显示，随着就业市场持续疲软，委员会"预计今年剩余时间薪资增长将显著放缓"。纪要释放鸽 派信号称，"劳动力市场出现了一些更明显的反通胀压力迹象"。委员会 ...

瑞士央行在6月货币政策声明中指出，自上次货币政策评估以来，通胀水平进一步下降。瑞士央行将继续密切关注形势，并在必要时调整货币政策，以确 保通胀保持在中期价格稳定的范围内。 如今，瑞士央行距离回到此前的负利率状态，仅一步之遥。 事实上，在6月货币政策会议召开前，市场已充分计入瑞士央行25个基点降息的可能。瑞士通胀走低以及瑞郎升值压力增加等因素，共同推动了瑞士央行 采取宽松的货币政策。 6月19日，瑞士央行宣布最新货币政策决议，决定将政策利率下调25个基点至0%，符合市场预期，为2024年3月以来的第六次降息。 数据显示，瑞士5月消费者物价指数(CPI)同比下降了0.1%，这是自2021年以来首次出现负增长。 根据瑞士央行的最新分析，预计瑞士2025年平均年通胀率为0.2%，2026年为0.5%，2027年为0.7%。 与此同时，瑞士央行表示，准备在必要时干预外汇市场。 瑞士央行表示，2025年第一季度，全球经济继续以温和的速度增长。由于贸易紧张局势加剧，未来几个季度的全球经济前景有所恶化。瑞士央行在其基准 情景中预计，未来几个季度全球经济增长将放缓。全球经济前景仍存在高度不确定性。贸易壁垒可能会进一步提高，导致 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change [1] - The financial market showed minimal reaction to the Fed's decision, with the S&P 500 index down 0.03% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.10% [1] - The ten-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.394%, and the dollar index increased by 0.06% to 98.46 points [1] Group 2 - The Fed's economic outlook reflects a collective understanding among its economists, with predictions for GDP growth in 2025 revised down to 1.4% from a previous estimate of 1.7% [2][3] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% by the end of this year, indicating a potential slowdown in the job market [3] - Inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is anticipated to increase, with core PCE projected at 3.1% for 2025 [3] Group 3 - The complexity of inflation is heightened by domestic economic policies and international geopolitical conflicts, with tariffs expected to raise consumer prices [4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern tensions, could significantly impact global inflation [4] - The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts, with 10 out of 19 officials suggesting the possibility of two rate cuts this year, while others remain skeptical [4][5] Group 4 - High interest rates are suppressing economic activity, with mortgage rates at 6.89% and credit card rates exceeding 20% [5] - The potential for stagflation is a concern, as low retail growth could lead to a chain reaction affecting the job market [5] - The Fed is willing to sacrifice employment and economic growth to maintain a low inflation environment [5] Group 5 - The upcoming earnings reports in July will be crucial for assessing corporate performance amid uncertainty, particularly regarding the impact of tariff policies [6] - The U.S. Treasury issuance market is under scrutiny, reflecting foreign investors' willingness to purchase U.S. bonds [6] - The credibility of the U.S. dollar is questioned in the context of a move away from dollar dominance [6]

欧洲央行管委内格尔：将通胀率恢复到目标水平是欧洲央行促进经济增长的最佳举措。 ...

【导读】瑞士央行、挪威央行双双宣布：降息25个基点 中国基金报记者 李智 6月19日，瑞士央行将政策利率下调25个基点至零，符合市场预期。此外，挪威央行宣布降 息25个基点至4.25%，市场预期维持不变。 瑞士央行降息25个基点 6月19日，瑞士央行将政策利率下调25个基点至零，符合市场预期。值得一提的是，这是瑞 士央行连续第六次降息。 瑞士央行预计2025年瑞士国内生产总值将增长约1%至1.5%，与此前预测相同；预计2026 年瑞士国内生产总值将增长约1% 至 1.5%，此前预测为约1.5%；预计2026年通胀率为 0.5%，低于之前预期的0.8%；预计2027年通胀率为0.7%，低于此前预期的0.8%。 瑞士央行表示，与上一季度相比，通胀压力有所下降。瑞士央行将继续密切关注局势，并在 必要时调整货币政策，以确保通胀在中期内保持在价格稳定的范围内。 2025年第一季度，全球经济继续以温和的速度增长。由于贸易紧张局势加剧，未来几个季度 的全球经济前景恶化。瑞士央行预计全球经济增长将在未来几个季度减弱。美国的通货膨胀 率在未来几个季度可能会上升。相比之下，欧洲通胀压力有望进一步下降。 瑞士央行认为，全球经济形势 ...