黄金正式突破5000美元/盎司后（伦敦金），仍然没停下继续上攻的脚步！这个涨法不光个人，很多机构也没想到，比如高盛前不久将今年底的黄金目标 价，从之前的4900美元上调到了5400美元/盎司。 在这个时刻，我们用三个关键问题来过滤掉噪音和情绪，看看到底该如何面对如今的黄金，该买还是该卖。 01 黄金凭什么涨成这样？ 有泡沫吗？ 首先需要承认，这一轮黄金牛市，和历史上以往的黄金牛市都不一样。过去我们说黄金看通胀、看利率，但这回，教科书有点失灵了。核心的驱动力，正 在发生结构性变化，咱们从两组数据的变化来看：首先是大家很熟悉、也很重要的全球央行购金。 从2022年开始，全球央行年度净购金量连续突破1000吨大关，去年这个数字达到了1280吨的历史峰值。高盛在1月最新的报告中预测，今年央行月均购金 量预计达60吨，继续保持着高于2022年之前17吨/月的历史水平。同时还出现了新的趋势，过去央行购金以新兴市场为主，如今波兰、新加坡等更多发达 经济体也加入行列。 图片来源：格隆汇 数据来源：世界黄金协会，勾股大数据 全球范围内更多的央行购金，不再是单纯增持，而成为了结构性替代。这意味着什么？意味着各国央行在用真金白银， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent circulation of a WeChat screenshot suggesting Jiangxi Yumin Bank plans to lower the comprehensive interest rates on existing deposits has sparked significant discussion among depositors [1][4]. Group 1: Bank's Policy Changes - Jiangxi Yumin Bank is considering stopping the issuance of points on existing deposit products and has proposed a preliminary negotiation plan to solicit feedback from depositors [1][5]. - The bank's current deposit products, which previously offered attractive interest rates through point accumulation, are now being adjusted, with the comprehensive annualized rates having decreased from 3.6% to around 3.3% [4][5]. - The proposed plan allows depositors to withdraw their existing 5-year deposits at the original 3.3% interest rate, but future interest will be calculated at a lower rate of 2.05% [5][6]. Group 2: Market and Regulatory Context - The adjustments in deposit rates are part of a broader trend among small and medium-sized banks responding to regulatory requirements aimed at curbing high-interest deposit solicitation practices [12][13]. - Regulatory bodies have been increasingly enforcing rules against high-interest deposit strategies, with a directive to phase out such practices by the end of 2025 [12][13]. - The trend of declining deposit rates is influenced by various factors, including market competition and the financial health of banks, particularly private banks that have historically relied on higher rates to attract customers [14]. Group 3: Customer Reactions and Implications - Many depositors have expressed dissatisfaction with the proposed changes, feeling that the bank's unilateral adjustments undermine their expected returns from deposits [6]. - The bank's mobile banking platform no longer displays deposit products that include point accumulation, indicating a shift in their product offerings [6]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing decline in deposit rates may lead to a shift in investor behavior, with a potential increase in interest in capital markets and other investment products as deposit yields decrease [14][15].

Group 1 - A significant financial operation involving U.S. Treasury bonds has drawn global attention, with Danish and Swedish pension funds selling approximately $8.1 billion in U.S. debt within a few days [1] - The sell-off is perceived as a response to geopolitical tensions, with Trump's threats of major retaliation against large-scale asset sales indicating a new battleground in U.S.-Europe relations [3] - The Danish pension fund's decision to divest from U.S. bonds was attributed to concerns over U.S. fiscal instability, while Sweden's largest pension fund cited unpredictable U.S. policies as the reason for its reduction in holdings [7][8] Group 2 - Trump's aggressive rhetoric at the Davos Forum highlighted the seriousness of the U.S. response to European asset sales, suggesting that U.S. Treasury bonds are not to be taken lightly [8] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary attempted to downplay the impact of Denmark's bond sell-off, indicating a desire to control the narrative and prevent other European nations from following suit [8] - The European financial landscape is characterized by a significant reliance on U.S. debt, making large-scale sell-offs risky and potentially destabilizing for the market [13] Group 3 - European countries are cautious in their financial maneuvers due to their heavy debt burdens and economic vulnerabilities, which limit their ability to respond aggressively to U.S. actions [14] - The recent bond sell-offs by private institutions in Europe are seen as tentative moves rather than declarations of financial war, aimed at gauging U.S. reactions [14] - In light of the U.S.-Europe tensions, European nations are seeking to strengthen ties with China, indicating a strategic pivot to diversify their economic partnerships [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth of public FOFs (Fund of Funds) since 2025, driven by a stable capital market environment and evolving investor allocation concepts, with total fundraising reaching 84.529 billion yuan, an increase of over 800% year-on-year, marking a three-year high [1][8] - In 2026, public FOFs are expected to continue expanding their development space, becoming a core choice in residents' asset allocation due to factors like "financial relocation," "pension demand," and "tool upgrades" [1][8] - Financial institutions are accelerating collaboration to respond to investor needs with more professional services, exemplified by the launch of the "Hui Tou Plan" by Bank of China in partnership with public fund management institutions [1][8] Group 2 - The "Hui Tou Plan" is designed based on in-depth market research by Bank of China, creating four product lines targeting different asset volatility levels, ensuring clear positioning and investment goals for investors [2][10] - The "You Sheng You Yang Plan" by Southern Fund focuses on the full lifecycle management of products, aiming to match fund products and investment strategies with channel and investor needs, thereby enhancing investor experience [3][9] Group 3 - The Southern Haoxin product, a focus of both plans, is characterized by its clear strategy and stable performance, meeting current market demands for low-volatility and stable-return investment tools [4][12] - Southern Haoxin employs a risk parity model to determine asset allocation, incorporating domestic and international stocks, gold, and convertible bonds, while maintaining a diversified strategy for enhanced returns [4][12] Group 4 - The management of Southern Haoxin is led by experienced professionals, including Li Wenliang and Wang Qingzhou, who bring extensive investment experience and a focus on steady growth and risk control [6][13] - The Southern Fund FOF team benefits from a robust integrated research platform, allowing for comprehensive resource integration across various asset classes, which supports the effective operation of products like Southern Haoxin [7][14] Group 5 - The collaboration between Bank of China and Southern Fund through the "Hui Tou Plan" and "You Sheng You Yang Plan" reflects a trend towards a service model centered on investor interests, aiming to enhance wealth management and support the real economy [15]

/ 利率｜开年机构行为的五点关注 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2026.01.27 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 郑艺鹏 zhengyp@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《信用 | 二永债可以继续拉久期吗？》 2026-01-26 2. 《转债 | 高估值下机构如何择券？ -2025Q4 公募持仓点评》 2026-01-25 3. 《期货｜关注反弹持续性》 2026-01-25 核心观点 ❖ 开年以来债市行为怎么看？银行增持动力的确强劲，而交易盘则相对谨慎， 券商在等待右侧，基金在寻求确定性，保险买入纯债整体符合季节性，此外 其他类和保险的行为体现理财规模在延续快速增长。 往后看，我们认为交易盘动能在逐渐恢复，其中券商对 3-10y 国债买入增多， 但对超长国债买入动能依旧不算强；基金恢复相对明显，但还是更青睐票息 思路；银行配置可能持续偏强，因此债市可以维持多头思维，短期内信用可 以更乐观。 ❖ 关注 1：银行开年买债超季节性，大行 ...

证券研究报告 宏观视角 金价近五千、银价破一百的启示 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 25 日│美国 易峘 研究员 SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 2023 年来，我们始终看好以黄金为代表的贵金属价格重估（参见《全球央行购金百年史：任重而道远》，2024/5/10）。 随着全球地缘政治重构和财政可持续性恶化均驶入"快车道"，我们持续看好这类有一定"货币属性"的商品的长期 配置价值。但随着贵金属重估进入"共识"阶段，我们也进一步探讨这一趋势对更广义资产配置的启示，①全球变局 下黄金、白银的走势提醒我们，货币"含金量"下降、"估值锚"快速向上漂移，我们对供给稀缺实物资产和核心股 权资产的定价体系或许需要有所调整。②全球大宗商品、包括 AI 和国防军工航天等领域稀缺关键商品的供需平衡变化 可能持续推动更广义的商品、资源品价格重估，鉴于 2026 后与 2025 年前相比，全球投资周期将更为"耗材"，且 AI 基建及国防军工等核心需求增量的价格敏感度较低；同时，中国地产相关耗材量下降接近尾声，全球资源品需求不再 ...

他表示，金融服务业在香港经济中占据举足轻重的地位，而香港亦具备其他金融中心无法提供的独特优 势，包括高度国际化的市场、完善的监管制度及与内地紧密的联系，欢迎更多企业来港投资及发展。 洪丕正强调，香港去年整体金融业表现非常强劲，多个领域均录得显著增长，包括股票市场、新股上 市、银行业、保险业、财富管理及家族办公室等，发展势头令人鼓舞。 香港金融发展局主席洪丕正在亚洲金融论坛专题早餐会上致辞时表示，去年是前所未有的一年，全球政 策波动频繁，影响范围广泛，促使投资者重新检视其投资组合是否过度集中于某一领域，并期望通过更 好的资产配置，减低政策变化带来的风险。 他指出，金融发展局将继续发挥其角色，积极提出具前瞻性的政策建议，确保香港金融业保持国际竞争 力，并持续向全球投资者及金融机构推广香港作为首选金融平台的优势。 洪丕正指出，香港在过去一年发挥了重要作用，一方面协助国际投资者将投资从成熟市场分散至新兴市 场，另一方面亦帮助内地投资者把资产由本地市场分散配置至全球，充分体现香港作为国际金融中心的 桥梁角色。 ...

Core Insights - The public FOF (Fund of Funds) market is experiencing increased attention and activity in 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter, as evidenced by the latest disclosures of public fund quarterly reports [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - The public FOF market maintained an upward trend in 2025, with significant growth in the fourth quarter. By the end of 2025, there were 550 public FOFs with a total management scale of 218.901 billion yuan, marking an increase of 49 funds and 31.655 billion yuan from the third quarter [2]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, 43 new public FOFs were launched, raising 45.064 billion yuan, which represents an increase of 24 funds and 38.532 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter. Ordinary FOFs accounted for over 90% of both the number and scale of new products [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - Three main factors are driving the active new issuance market for public FOFs: 1. Market conditions are catalyzing demand for stable investment channels due to low interest rates and increased market volatility, leading to a decline in traditional investment attractiveness [3]. 2. Product capability upgrades have improved the research and investment systems of public FOFs, enhancing their multi-asset allocation capabilities and making them more competitive in terms of risk-return profiles [3]. 3. Increased investor awareness and acceptance of professional allocation tools like public FOFs are contributing to their growing popularity [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - Public FOFs emphasize multi-asset allocation, with a significant focus on bond funds. By the end of 2025, public FOFs held 56.522 billion yuan in pure bond funds, accounting for 45.22% of their total holdings. Index bond funds ranked second with a total of 17.207 billion yuan, representing 13.77% [4]. - The high allocation to pure bond funds is driven by their low volatility, which provides a stable return foundation and effectively hedges against equity asset risks. This aligns with the long-term wealth accumulation goals of public FOFs [4]. Group 4: Product Innovation - Public FOFs are continuously innovating their product offerings, introducing new forms such as FOF-LOF, QDII-FOF-LOF, and ETF-FOF. The ETF-FOF, in particular, has gained attention for its low fees and convenient rebalancing features [5][6]. - The design of public FOF products is increasingly aligned with market demands, addressing short-term speculative pain points by launching holding period-type FOFs that encourage long-term investment [5].

Core Viewpoint - In the context of declining deposit rates, there is a significant increase in the demand for asset reallocation among residents, leading banks to shift their marketing focus from deposit renewals to guiding asset allocation, particularly towards insurance products like dividend and annuity insurance [3][4][5]. Group 1: Changes in Customer Behavior - Customers are increasingly inquiring about how to reallocate funds rather than focusing solely on deposit rates, as some banks have seen large-denomination deposit rates drop below 1% [5][6]. - The interest in long-term stable returns has risen, with many clients considering dividend insurance as a viable alternative to traditional deposits [6][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - A significant amount of funds is expected to be released due to the maturity of long-term deposits, with an estimated 58.3 trillion yuan in deposits maturing in 2026, including 37.9 trillion yuan from residents, marking a five-year high [8]. - The shift in customer focus towards insurance products is driven by the need to maintain yield in a low-interest environment, with many clients looking for more stable investment options [8][10]. Group 3: Insurance Product Trends - The insurance industry is adapting to the declining interest rates by promoting dividend insurance as a substitute for traditional fixed-income products, which helps mitigate the pressures from lower investment returns [9][10]. - The regulatory environment has also changed, with the implementation of "reporting and banking integration" leading to a significant reduction in commission rates for insurance products sold through banks, enhancing the value of new business in the insurance sector [10]. Group 4: Sales Growth and Projections - The growth in the insurance sales channel is projected to continue, with estimates indicating that the incremental funding scale for the insurance channel could reach 3.057 billion yuan in January 2026, with corresponding premium growth rates of 91% [10]. - The combination of declining deposit rates, the maturity of savings, and the optimization of insurance product supply structures is expected to sustain rapid growth in the insurance sales channel [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to a unique combination of factors, marking a departure from previous market behaviors, with a focus on long-term investment strategies rather than speculative trading [1][4][6]. Group 1: Historical Context of Precious Metals Surge - The first major surge occurred in the 1970s when the dollar was decoupled from gold, leading to gold prices rising from $35 to over $800, while silver was driven to $50 due to speculative trading, resulting in a sharp decline when regulation was introduced [3]. - The second surge happened during the 2008 financial crisis, where gold prices increased from $800 to $1900 due to rampant money printing by central banks, driven by a singular focus on safe-haven assets, while silver lagged due to weak industrial demand [3]. - The third surge in 2020 was initially led by gold, with silver following as industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and new energy emerged, indicating a shift towards a combination of monetary easing and industrial demand [3]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The current surge is driven by a "triple logic" of monetary credit loosening, explosive industrial demand for silver, and geopolitical risks combined with Federal Reserve policy expectations, creating a unique market environment [4]. - Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold, with projections indicating a net purchase of nearly 300 tons by 2025, signaling a shift towards gold as a new "hard currency" [4]. - Silver's industrial demand is surging due to its essential role in photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI servers, with a global shortage expected to continue for five consecutive years [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to treat gold and silver as "asset allocation anchors" rather than ordinary commodities, with recommendations to consider gold ETFs and leading stocks related to silver and new energy for better liquidity and exposure to price increases [4][6]. - A suggested investment strategy includes maintaining a position of 5%-10% of total assets in precious metals to hedge against risks, while avoiding high-leverage futures trading [6]. - For those already holding positions, it is recommended to set profit-taking levels to secure gains while allowing for potential further increases in prices [6].