证券研究报告 2025年6月27日 行业：固收 从国内复苏斜率到全球波动率看资产配置 ——2025年下半年投资策略 分析师：张河生 SAC编号：S0870523100004 目录 SECTION 2 一、国内宏观经济或延续上半年弱复苏态势 二、债市收益率调整后再次回落，后续谨慎看多 三、股市筑底成功，新叙事或接力 四、美联储选择等待观察，债务上限博弈进行中 五、美国股债大幅震荡，美元走弱，黄金走强 六、风险提示 一、国内宏观经济或延续上半年弱复苏态势 1 固定资产投资、外贸在下半年有望延续较好表现 ◆ 我们认为固定资产投资在下半年有望延续好的表现 ◆ 设备更新政策支撑设备购置维持15%以上超高速同比增长，支撑固定资产投资尤其是制造业投资增速； ◆ 基建投资发挥逆周期作用保持10%以上高增长； 图 我国固投细分项累计同比 图 我国制造业与基建投资累计同比 1.20 2.40 17.30 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2024/03 2024/04 2024/05 2024/06 2024/07 2024/08 2024/09 202 ...

首先，美债市场的不确定性促使投资者寻求替代性资产。根据戴蒙的测算，若美国债务占GDP比例突破 130%（2025年已接近125%），主权信用风险溢价将显著抬升，而中国科技企业的估值洼地则凸显吸引 力。其次，阿里巴巴的全球化布局与数字经济渗透率提升，使其成为对冲美国政策风险的理想标的。摩 根大通在2025年4月的内部报告中指出，中国消费市场的韧性（2025年社会消费品零售总额预计增长 6.2%）为阿里核心电商业务提供了基本面支撑，而跨境贸易数字化趋势则强化了其作为基础设施提供 者的角色。此外，港股通的扩容（阿里巴巴于2024年9月被纳入）为国际资本提供了更便捷的配置渠 道，南向资金的持续流入进一步巩固了其流动性优势。 从更宏观的视角看，摩根大通的策略调整映射出全球资本流动的新动向。传统上，美债被视为"无风险 资产"，但在债务货币化与地缘政治冲突加剧的当下，其避险属性正被重新评估。戴蒙在2025年6月的发 言中强调："当市场意识到债务问题无法通过印钞解决时，资本将加速流向实际产出更高的经济体。"这 一判断与阿里巴巴的业绩表现形成对应，其2025年ROE（净资产收益率）达13.01%，显著低于同期摩 根大通自身的1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management companies are actively seeking strategies to overcome challenges posed by ongoing "asset scarcity" and volatility in the bond market, focusing on diversifying asset allocation and exploring alternative and equity assets for better returns [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The current market is characterized by "low interest rates and high volatility," with a recent 10 basis point reduction in both 1-year and 5-year LPR rates, and a 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.7% [1]. - As of the end of Q1, the allocation of wealth management products to bonds, cash, and bank deposits was 43.9%, 23.3%, and 13.5% respectively, indicating a heavy reliance on fixed-income assets [1]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Wealth management companies are shifting towards diversified layouts, with 招银理财 focusing on enhancing fixed-income assets and equity assets through strategies like low-dividend combinations and market-neutral strategies [3]. - Alternative and equity assets are becoming focal points for the second half of the year, with a balanced allocation among stocks, bonds, and gold expected to yield opportunities due to a low inflation and ample liquidity environment [3]. Group 3: Risk Management and Product Development - Wealth management firms emphasize absolute returns over relative returns, focusing on risk control and drawdown management in equity investments [3][4]. - 招银理财 aims to develop a product system centered on absolute return goals, with its PR3 and above products exceeding 240 billion yuan [4]. - Despite challenges, wealth management companies are responding to the "long money, long investment" call by increasing investments in capital markets, including ETFs, indicating a commitment to diversification and transformation [4].

Core Insights - The banking wealth management industry is undergoing a paradigm shift towards diversified asset allocation and multi-asset strategies due to the challenges posed by low interest rates and high market volatility [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Environment - The current market is characterized by "low interest rates and high volatility," leading to a decline in yields across various asset classes [1] - As of May 20, the one-year and five-year LPR rates decreased by 10 basis points, while the 10-year government bond yield fluctuates between 1.6% and 1.7% [1] - The asset allocation in wealth management products is predominantly in fixed-income assets, with bonds, cash, and bank deposits accounting for 43.9%, 23.3%, and 13.5% of total investment assets, respectively [1] Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Wealth management firms are shifting from single-asset strategies to diversified approaches, focusing on broad asset classes to enhance returns [2] - The emphasis is on large-scale asset allocation, with a focus on enhancing fixed-income and equity asset layouts [2] - Companies are adopting strategies such as optimizing trading strategies and actively allocating to dividend low-volatility combinations and market-neutral strategies [2][4] Group 3: Asset Class Outlook - Industry insiders are optimistic about alternative assets and equity assets for the second half of the year [3] - Balanced allocation among stocks, bonds, and gold is seen as advantageous, with expectations of continued upward movement in asset prices due to low inflation and ample liquidity [3] - The demand for gold remains significant, with a notable increase in wealth management products featuring gold themes, totaling 46 products as of June 26 [4] Group 4: Risk Management and Absolute Returns - Wealth management companies prioritize achieving absolute returns, necessitating a focus on risk control and drawdown management in equity investments [5] - Strategies such as "fixed income + options" and multi-asset approaches are critical for managing risks while pursuing returns [5][6] - The growth of equity-based wealth management products is evident, with an increase of approximately 20 billion in the first quarter, although the overall scale remains relatively small [6]

风险偏好看券商，利差经营看保险 20260626 摘要 明显。具体途径包括保证金、两融和 ETF，其中两融规模增加显著，而 ETF 则 被认为是聪明的钱，在震荡环境中保持了一定共振。保险方面，自 4 月份以来 保费增长有所恢复，通过分红险和健康险产品间接入市，并加大权益资产配置。 公募基金中固收加产品略有增长，但纯主动权益规模收缩明显。银行理财虽然 主要投资债券，但逐步考虑权益资产配置。 数字资产交易牌照对券商未来价值有哪些影响？ 数字资产交易牌照升级对券商未来价值具有重要影响。这一牌照允许券商进行 数字资产交易，为其业务扩展提供新机会，并可能带来新的收入来源。此外， 这种创新业务模式能够吸引更多投资者关注，提高券商在国际市场上的竞争力。 同时，也能推动整个非银金融板块的发展，使其更具弹性和活力。 4 月以来，居民存款转移至保证金、两融和 ETF，保险保费增长恢复， 通过分红险和健康险间接入市，公募基金固收加产品略有增长，银行理 财逐步考虑权益资产配置，共同支撑资本市场。 数字资产交易牌照允许券商进行数字资产交易，为其业务扩展提供新机 会，并可能带来新的收入来源，提高券商在国际市场上的竞争力，推动 整个非银金 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 26 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：尚未形成合力 | | | 复盘与思考: 6 月 26 日，股债跷跷板仍在晃动，不过重心略向债市倾斜。权益资产在三连涨后，迎来休整，重要股指多 数小幅下挫；债市早盘举棋不定，午后情绪修复，各期限利率一致下行。 复盘各类资产表现，股市，大盘板块跌幅较窄，上证指数、沪深 300 分别下跌 0.22%、0.35%，中证红利指 数小幅上涨 0.03%；小微盘跌幅同样不大，中证 2000 下跌 0.18%，万得微盘股指上涨 0.25%；科技类方面，科创 50 下跌 0.57%，恒生科技下跌 0.26%。债市，10 年、30 年国债活跃券收益率下行 1.1bp、1.5bp 至 1.64%、 1.85%；受到收盘时间影响，30 年国债期货主力合约仅上涨 0.10%，10 年国债期货主力合约下跌 0.02%。 国际商品方面，原油和黄金价格亚盘时间连续第二日反弹。随着地缘政治风险逐步降温，市场对原油关注 点部分转向供需基本面。美国能源信息署（EIA）最新数据显示，上周美国原油、汽油及馏分油库存全面下降 ...

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Core Viewpoint - China Great Wall Asset Management Co., Ltd. and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Deyang State-owned Assets Management Co., Ltd., plan to publicly transfer a total of 40.92% equity in Changcheng Huaxi Bank at a price of RMB 4.332 billion, marking a complete exit after 11 years of holding [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Changcheng Huaxi Bank, formerly known as Deyang Bank, was established in November 1998 and is headquartered in Deyang, Sichuan Province [5]. - The bank has a registered capital of RMB 2.304 billion and employs over 1,100 staff, with a total of 55 operating institutions [5]. - As of the 2024 audit report, the bank's total assets reached RMB 151.181 billion, total liabilities were RMB 140.673 billion, and owner's equity stood at RMB 10.508 billion, with an annual operating income of RMB 2.367 billion and a net profit of RMB 450 million [5]. Group 2: Financial Details - The bank's total assets are reported at RMB 148.29 billion, with net assets of RMB 10.064 billion and an assessed value of RMB 10.567 billion for the transferred equity [6]. - The transfer price for the 40.92% equity corresponds to an assessed value of RMB 4.324 billion, with a minimum transfer price set at RMB 4.332 billion [5][6]. Group 3: Market Implications - The equity transfer is seen as a significant move for optimizing asset allocation by Great Wall Asset Management [8]. - The bank's management indicated that the new shareholders are expected to be financially strong and capable of sustaining profitability, aligning with regulatory requirements for bank shareholders [8].

Group 1: Core Views - The net interest margin (NIM) of the banking industry in China has dropped to 1.43%, which is below the average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.51%, posing significant challenges for sustainable development in the banking sector [5][6][7] - The bank aims to maintain a leading position in NIM while ensuring it covers all costs and continues to create value in its asset and credit businesses [7] - The bank acknowledges past shortcomings in proactively engaging with ETF funds and plans to enhance its product offerings in the future [8][9] Group 2: Financial Investments - As of the end of the reporting period, the bank's financial investments amounted to 617.018 billion yuan, with a proportion of 16.65%, reflecting a gradual increase from previous years [3] - The increase in financial investment assets is attributed to proactive asset allocation and changes in the financing needs and market conditions [3][4] - The bank is focusing on low-risk, low-capital-consuming bonds due to the structural changes in financing and the need for stable returns [4] Group 3: Net Interest Margin - The bank's NIM was reported at 1.91% for Q1, down from 1.98% the previous year, indicating a continuing downward trend [6][7] - The bank's NIM is expected to face difficulties in returning to the 2%-3% range due to low loan yields and already low funding costs [7] - The bank is adapting to the low-interest-rate environment by accelerating its transformation in various areas, including internationalization and digitalization [7] Group 4: Fund Sales - The bank has recognized its past lack of foresight in the ETF market and is now working to correct this by expanding its range of fund products [8][9] - The bank has strengthened partnerships with leading asset management companies and improved its fund distribution capabilities [9] - Recent sales of newly launched public funds have shown promising results, indicating the bank's strong sales capabilities in the fund market [9]

6月26日周四，A股小幅低开，三大股指早盘震荡回升，军工股继续强势，固态电池概念活跃，创新药板块调整。 港股低开低走，恒指早盘跌近1%，医药股下跌，新消费三宝走低，国泰君安国际盘初一度涨90%，现涨近30%。 债市方面，国债期货集体上涨。核心市场走势： | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 3456.62 | 0.64 | 0.02% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 10428.64 | 34.91 | 0.34% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 2138.36 | 9.97 | 0.47% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | | 3961.84 | 1.78 | 0.04% | | 000016 | FJESO | | 2745.01 | -2.71 | -0.10% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | | 1219.76 | 2.67 | 0.22% | | 000688 | 科创20 | | 1001.50 | 5.89 | ...