中国台湾5月失业率 3.34%，前值3.36%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy is in a state of absolute uncertainty, with historical data offering little reference value due to unprecedented external shocks such as tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1][20]. Monetary Policy and Tariff Impact - Recent inflation has decreased compared to earlier in the year, with housing and non-housing service inflation aligning with the 2% target, while goods inflation has slightly increased [3][10]. - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is uncertain and will take time to materialize, as many retailers are selling inventory purchased before tariffs were enacted [3][10]. - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy is deemed appropriate, but there is a need to monitor the scale and timing of tariff impacts on inflation [3][9]. Economic Forecasts - The Fed's economic forecasts for 2025 show a decline in growth to 1.4% (down from previous estimates of 1.7% and 2.1%), a slight increase in unemployment to 4.5%, and a rise in PCE inflation to 3.0% [1][8]. - The uncertainty surrounding economic predictions remains high, with the Fed adjusting forecasts based on evolving tariff situations and economic indicators [4][10]. Labor Market and Employment - The current unemployment rate is at 4.2%, with economic growth projected between 1.5% and 2.0%, indicating a stable labor market despite some cooling [5][14]. - The Fed is closely monitoring the labor market, as a healthy job market is crucial for maintaining economic stability [5][14]. Future Policy Directions - The Fed is cautious about making predictions regarding interest rate changes, emphasizing the need for more data to inform decisions on potential rate cuts or adjustments [6][11]. - There is a consensus among Fed members that the current policy rate is appropriate, but individual predictions on future rate paths vary significantly due to high uncertainty [7][11]. Geopolitical and Economic Context - The geopolitical landscape, including conflicts in the Middle East and trade tensions, is contributing to economic uncertainty and potential inflationary pressures [13][14]. - The Fed acknowledges the complexities introduced by AI and other technological advancements, which could either enhance productivity or disrupt job markets [13][14]. Conclusion - The Fed's current stance reflects a careful balancing act between maintaining price stability and supporting employment, with a focus on data-driven decision-making in an environment of significant uncertainty [16][19].

俄罗斯总统普京：俄罗斯的失业率保持在创纪录的低位，为2.3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's primary responsibilities are to monitor unemployment rates and inflation levels, rather than providing cheap financing for the federal government [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve focuses on economic indicators such as unemployment and inflation [1] - The role of the Federal Reserve is distinct from that of the federal government in terms of financing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed uncertainty about whether the committee will reach a consensus, but highlighted that economic indicators show strong performance, with low unemployment and inflation nearing target levels [1] Economic Performance - Economic data indicates a robust performance, with the unemployment rate remaining low [1] - Inflation is reported to be close to the Federal Reserve's target, suggesting stability in price levels [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was a volatile upward trend, with the 30 - year variety showing a relatively strong trend. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market, and Treasury bond futures may experience a slightly more volatile trend. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [5][37][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a volatile upward trend. By the end of the week, the 30 - year Treasury bond rose 0.71%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond rose 0.09% [5] Consumption Data - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41326 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 184324 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [8] - In May, driven by the trade - in policy, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture in units above the designated size increased by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively. The sales of basic daily necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum. The retail sales of automobiles in units above the designated size increased by 1.1% year - on - year [10] Investment Data - From January to May, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. Among them, the broad - based infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, the narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, the manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, and the real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [13] Real Estate Market - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 35315 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, and the sales volume was 34091 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [15] - In the first half of June, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10% [17] - In May, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The sales prices of second - hand residential properties in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [21] Service Industry and Industrial Production - In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year. Among them, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries showed relatively fast growth [23] - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [26][28] Unemployment Rate - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the same as the same period last year [31] Capital Market Interest Rates - This week, the capital market interest rates remained stable. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65%, a slight decline. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on June 20 was the same as last month [34] Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The market logic is that from January to May, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was lower than market expectations, while May's consumption growth was significantly better than expected. Exports maintained a relatively high positive growth, industrial production grew steadily and rapidly, the unemployment rate decreased slightly, and the social financing scale and credit data were close to market expectations. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market [37] - The trading strategy is that trading - type investments should adopt a band - operation strategy [38]

据《澳洲金融评论报》报道，受益于就业数据的持续韧性，澳洲和美国的利率维持 不变的时间可能会 比市场和借贷者预期的更长，这表明当前并不急需大幅降息。 周四公布的数据显示，尽管就业岗位出现意外下滑，但澳洲5月的失业率仍稳定在 4.1%。 RBC Capital Markets首席经济学家Su-Lin Ong表示，这些数据显示劳动力 市场"依旧健康"。 就在一个月前，澳联储和美联储都认为，由于美国总统特朗普的贸易政策将导致企业裁员，两国的就业 市场将在第二季度开始疲软，但失业率却一直不符合预期。 这意味着澳联储要保持耐心，这也是包括美联储在内的其它多家央行所传递的信息。 Barrenjoey的首席利率策略师Andrew Lilley指出："我们在5月没有看到劳动力市 场有任何疲软的迹象。" 事实上，美联储在周三（澳洲东部时间周四）的政策会议上如期将基准利率维持在 4%至4.25%之间不 变。 他注意到，两国经济的就业市场表现都比预期要好。 主席Jerome Powell指出，美国劳动力市场依旧稳健，处于或 接近充分就业状态。 Jerome Powell（图片来源：澳洲金融评论报） 虽然美国政策制定者重申预计今年将降 ...

骏利亨德森投资环球短存续期及流动性主管兼投资组合经理Dan Siluk指，美联储鸽式按兵不动，并为 2025年下半年降息保持大门敞开。美联储明确传达出不急于行动的讯号，但若通胀持续回落、劳动市场 继续软化，将随时准备采取行动。通胀预测上调或会使市场较不预期大幅宽松政策出现，但对2025年利 率路径维持不变，则是向市场保证了灵活性。 2025年GDP增速自1.7%下修至1.4%，反映对贸易与全球逆风的担忧。失业率自4.4%微幅上调至4.5%， 显示劳动市场已有初步软化迹象。2025年PCE通胀率由2.7%上调至3.0%，核心PCE由2.8%上调至3.1%， 反映关税与能源价格压力。2025年联邦基金利率预测维持在3.9%，预示降息两次;2026及2027年的利率 路径略为上移，长期利率则为3.0%。 骏利亨德森指，总统特朗普呼吁大幅降息1至2.5%并公开批评鲍威尔，凸显美联储所面临的政治压力。 尽管如此，美联储仍决定按兵不动，进一步巩固了其独立性及对双重使命的承诺。经济预测摘要(SEP) 显示，尽管通胀风险依然存在，但经济与劳动市场预测留有宽松的空间，若情势恶化仍可考虑降息。 骏利亨德森提到，接下来，市场将密切 ...

天风证券研报表示，6月美联储议息会议维持利率不变，符合市场预期。总体来看，特朗普政府政策不 确定性之下，美联储将保持谨慎，耐心等待更明确的降息信号。美联储主席鲍威尔的表态相对偏鹰。关 于就业，鲍威尔指出就业增长确实有所下降，但失业率仍在较低水平，劳动力供需都在同步下降。关于 通胀，鲍威尔表示"我们预计未来几个月将出现显著的通胀"，并指出关税对商品价格的影响是需要传导 时间的。下次降息的门槛仍然较高。我们认为9月降息落地仍有一定难度，下一次降息或许需要等待更 长时间（或在今年四季度）。通胀风险仍偏高，而失业率上行较慢，美联储或宁愿等待更长时间，而不 是先发制人犯下错误。3、总言之，9月美联储降息落地需要满足的条件，要么通胀在暑期继续下行、要 么失业率快速上升，目前看来都有一定难度。美联储或维持观望更长时间，叠加财政和关税政策的不确 定性，下半年美债仍有上行风险。 ...

Group 1 - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers expects President Donald Trump to nominate a mainstream candidate to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, despite Trump's criticism of Powell for not lowering interest rates this year [1] - Summers expresses confidence that Trump will make a respected choice for the next Fed chair, influenced by the desire to avoid market instability and some voices among Senate Republicans [1] - Trump has reiterated calls for the Fed to lower interest rates by at least 2 percentage points, suggesting that his criticism may be more about deflecting blame for a potential economic recession rather than directly influencing Fed policy [2] Group 2 - Summers highlights the negative impact of supply shocks on the economy, as indicated by the Fed's latest economic forecasts, despite lower energy costs and potential productivity gains from AI [2] - The Fed's simultaneous upward revisions of inflation and unemployment rate forecasts are unusual, suggesting an impending supply shock due to tariffs, which complicates the Fed's efforts [2]