策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.17 2025-11-17 每周海内外重要政策跟踪（25/11/14） 本报告导读： 覆盖国内宏观（中央及各部委政策及表态）、大类产业、地方政策、以及海外重要 政策和事件。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 国内宏观：11 月 7 日，商务部、海关总署发布公告，决定暂停实施 多项出口管制措施；财政部发布 2025 年上半年中国财政政策执行 情况报告。11 月 9 日，第三次中瑞部级金融会议在瑞士伯尔尼举行。 11 月 10 日，国家金融监督管理总局对银行保险机构许可证实行分 级管理；同日，国新办举行国务院政策例行吹风会，介绍加快场景 培育和开放推动新场景大规模应用有关情况；市场监管总局发布"双 十一"网络集中促销合规提示。11 月 11 日，国家发展改革委举行专 题新闻发布会，介绍进一步促进民间投资发展有关情况。11 月 12 日，2025 年上海证券交易所国际投资者大会在上海开幕。11 月 13 日，市场监督管理总局表示将推动经营异常企业有序退出市场。 风险提示：政策和资本市场存在不确定性。 海 外 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务 ...

在开放的经济条件下，绿色贸易发展必须具有全球视野。会议要求"拓展相关产品和技术进出口""加快 建立与国际接轨的绿色低碳产品、技术和服务标准体系"，具有很强的现实针对性和战略前瞻性。近年 来，围绕绿色低碳发展、生态环境问题的国际博弈日趋激烈。积极参与国际标准制定，推动国际标准互 认，不仅是破除潜在"绿色壁垒"的技术手段，更是在全球绿色治理中提升话语权、增强软实力的战略举 措，将为我国先进的绿色产品、技术和服务开拓更广阔的国际市场，实现高水平"引进来"和高质量"走 出去"的良性互动。 绿色贸易是一条强有力的纽带，连接国内高质量发展与全球绿色低碳转型。将绿色低碳理念深度融入贸 易强国建设，是我们在新时代把握发展主动权的重要抉择，需要全社会凝聚共识，形成合力，沿着这条 充满希望的绿色航道，驶向更加可持续、更具韧性的未来。 宏伟目标需要坚实有力且高效协同的政策体系作为保障。会议提出要"加快完善绿色贸易政策制度体 系，加强与产业、科技、财税、金融等政策衔接协同"。这指明了推动绿色贸易发展的方法论——系统 性推进。单一的政策工具已不足以应对复杂的绿色低碳转型挑战，必须打好组合拳。产业政策需精准引 导绿色低碳产业投资布局，科 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the green certificate market, suggesting it is entering a high-quality development phase [3][6]. Core Insights - Green certificates are the only proof of the environmental attributes of renewable energy electricity in China, with a market mechanism that allows for flexible trading [3][4]. - The development of the green certificate market is strategically significant, emphasizing the environmental value of green electricity and imposing mandatory consumption ratios on high-energy-consuming industries [3][4]. - The report forecasts a substantial increase in the trading scale of green certificates, estimating a market size of 132 billion yuan by 2026 [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Green Certificate Market Development - The green certificate market is expected to undergo high-quality development, with a significant increase in issuance and trading volume [3][6]. - The average price of green certificates is projected to rise in the future due to increasing demand from both domestic and international markets [4][6]. 2. Trading Mechanism and Scale - The report outlines a closed-loop operation mechanism for green certificates, including issuance, trading, application, and cancellation [3][4]. - As of September 2025, a total of 70.62 billion green certificates have been issued, with a notable increase in trading volume [4][41]. 3. Mandatory Consumption Requirements - Each province and high-emission industry has established mandatory consumption ratios for green electricity, which are set to increase annually [3][54]. - The report highlights that regions with abundant renewable energy resources have higher mandatory consumption ratios compared to coastal areas [57]. 4. International Recognition and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need to enhance the international recognition of China's green certificates, especially in light of the EU's carbon tariff set to take effect in 2026 [3][4]. - By 2027, the green certificate market is expected to have a well-established trading system, combining mandatory and voluntary consumption mechanisms [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The COP30 conference highlighted China's commitment to low-carbon development and energy transition, emphasizing the need for global cooperation to achieve climate goals [2][3]. Group 1: China's Energy Transition - The "China Energy Transition Outlook 2025" and "China Green Certificate Development Report" were released, showcasing China's significant progress in energy transformation and low-carbon initiatives [4]. - China's non-fossil energy consumption is projected to increase from 16.0% in 2020 to 19.8% by 2024, reflecting an annual increase of nearly 1 percentage point [3]. Group 2: International Cooperation - International collaboration is deemed crucial for green transition, with Denmark and China focusing on shared experiences to accelerate the process and reduce costs [4]. - China's role as a key player in global climate governance was emphasized, with intentions to enhance cooperation and exchange with the international community [3].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent implementation of the "Implementation Opinions on Expanding Green Trade" by the Ministry of Commerce and 16 other departments, which includes 16 targeted measures to enhance China's international competitiveness in green trade [1][2] - It highlights the transition of China's foreign trade strategy from a growth-oriented approach to a rule-based strategy focused on standards and values, aiming to position China as a leader in global green trade rules [3][4] Group 1: Policy and Strategic Shifts - The new policy marks a significant shift in China's green trade approach, moving from policy advocacy to systematic promotion, particularly in green supply chain collaboration and carbon footprint accounting [1][2] - Experts emphasize the need for China to actively participate in international trade rule-making processes to overcome structural challenges and enhance its negotiating power [2][3] - The article suggests that the establishment of a unified carbon footprint database is crucial for addressing the challenges faced by Chinese enterprises in meeting international standards [10][11] Group 2: Industry Opportunities and Challenges - The green trade sector presents both opportunities and challenges, with strong trade demand driven by climate change urgency and fragmented international green standards creating new trade barriers [2][3] - China's exports of wind power, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicles have significantly contributed to global carbon reduction, with exports to over 200 countries and regions [5] - The article outlines the need for a comprehensive transformation of China's foreign trade, focusing on green product exports, low-carbon logistics, and overall supply chain collaboration [5][6] Group 3: Implementation and Infrastructure - The article mentions the importance of green industrial parks in enhancing the competitiveness of foreign trade enterprises, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reporting the establishment of numerous national green factories and parks [8] - It highlights the role of leading foreign trade enterprises in driving green transformation across the supply chain by setting green standards and sharing carbon management tools [6][7] - The article also discusses the necessity of creating a credible carbon data system to support the establishment of green supply chains and enhance the transparency of ESG disclosures [10][11] Group 4: Regional Development Strategies - The article suggests differentiated regional strategies for developing green supply chains, with trade provinces leveraging digital infrastructure to create zero-carbon supply chain demonstration zones [9] - It emphasizes the need for policy support, such as tax reductions and subsidies, to facilitate the development of green service trade in regions like Guangxi and Chongqing [9] Group 5: Future Directions - The article concludes with recommendations for enhancing the credibility and international recognition of ESG ratings, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises facing challenges in professional capacity and financing [11][12] - It stresses the importance of integrating carbon pricing mechanisms with domestic carbon markets to drive the transition towards green trade [12]

Core Viewpoint - The white paper "China's Action on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" highlights significant achievements in China's efforts to reach carbon peak and carbon neutrality over the past five years, emphasizing the importance of reducing emissions and enhancing green development [1]. Group 1: Policy Framework - China has established the most comprehensive carbon reduction policy system globally [2]. - The guiding principle for achieving carbon peak and neutrality is represented by "1," while "N" refers to the implementation plans across key industries, sectors, and regions, with all 31 provinces having developed their carbon peak plans [3]. Group 2: Energy Transition - The proportion of non-fossil energy consumption is projected to increase from 16.0% in 2020 to 19.8% by 2024, with an average annual increase of nearly 1 percentage point [5]. - By 2024, the production of recycled non-ferrous metals in China is expected to reach 19.15 million tons, with one ton of green electricity used for every four tons of electrolytic aluminum produced [6]. Group 3: Economic Impact - China has built the largest and most complete clean energy industrial chain globally, with the "three new" economy (new industries, new business formats, and new models) expected to account for over 18% of GDP by 2024 [10]. Group 4: Urban Development - The area of newly constructed green buildings in urban areas is set to increase significantly in 2024, reflecting a shift towards greener urban construction methods and improved living quality [14]. Group 5: Lifestyle Changes - A green low-carbon lifestyle is becoming a new trend, with 27 provinces having introduced carbon-inclusive policies covering areas such as green travel, energy conservation, recycling, and waste sorting [17]. Group 6: Equipment Upgrades - Through large-scale equipment upgrades, over 20 million sets of equipment in key sectors are expected to be updated by 2024, resulting in energy savings equivalent to approximately 2.5 million tons of standard coal [20]. Group 7: Recycling Infrastructure - By the end of 2024, China aims to establish around 150,000 waste material recycling points and approximately 1,800 large sorting centers [21].

巴西当地时间 11 月 13 日 ， 《联合国气候变化框架公约》第三十次缔约方大会（ C OP30 ）中国角 新能源日 " 中国能源转型与新能源发展 " 主题边会在巴西贝伦成功举办 。会议由中国国家能源局新能源和可再生能源司、国务院参事室交流合作司指导，中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所、 国网能源研究院有限公 司联合主办 。 中国气候变化事务特使刘振民、国务院参事室副主任郑宏英、国家发展改革委环资司司长王善成、国家能源 局新能源和可再生能源司司长李创军、国家能源局国际司副司长熊敏峰 ， 丹麦气候事务大使奥勒 · 通克、国际可再生能源署总干事弗朗西斯科 · 拉 · 卡梅拉、 巴西财政部生态转型副秘书长卡罗利娜 · 格罗特拉 出席会议并致辞。 国家能源局新能源和可再生能源司介绍中国新能源和可再生能源发展所做的工作、取得的成绩和积累的经验 ， 发布《中国绿证发展报告》。国家 能源局国际司 介绍 中国能源转型为全球绿色低碳发展注入强大动力 的实践经验。 中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所发布《中国能源转型展望 2025 》 ， 国网能源研究院有限公司能源战略与规划研究所发布《中国能源电力发展展望 2025 》 等 。 本次边会 ...

Domestic Macro - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced the suspension of multiple export control measures effective from November 7, 2025, impacting various materials including rare earths and lithium batteries [5][15] - The Ministry of Finance released a report on the execution of China's fiscal policy for the first half of 2025, emphasizing the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and continued implementation of consumption-boosting initiatives [5][15] - The National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference on November 11, 2025, to discuss measures to further promote private investment development [5][15] Industry Policies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on November 7, 2025, to initiate key product innovation tasks in the fine chemical sector for 2025 [6][19] - The National Energy Administration released guidelines on promoting the integration of coal and new energy development on November 7, 2025 [6][19] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration published guidance on promoting the consumption and regulation of new energy on November 10, 2025 [6][19] Local Policies - On November 8, 2025, a major project planning and implementation meeting was held in Qingdao, and the Chongqing government adjusted some administrative divisions [7][19] - The Beijing Municipal Government issued opinions on constructing a comprehensive data element pilot zone to deepen the market-oriented allocation of data elements on November 9, 2025 [7][19] - The Shanghai Municipal Government's executive meeting on November 10, 2025, focused on creating an open innovation hub to support leading industries in global competition [7][19] Overseas Dynamics - On November 8, 2025, the U.S. Democratic Party softened its stance on government shutdown, while the Republican Party acknowledged progress [9] - The South Korean government plans to reduce the maximum tax rate on dividend income from 35% to 25% [9] - On November 11, 2025, the European Union proposed to gradually eliminate Huawei and ZTE equipment from member states [9]

Core Viewpoint - China is a steadfast action-oriented contributor to global climate governance, having explored a new path for sustainable development through its efforts [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Achievements - China has established the most systematic and comprehensive carbon peak and carbon neutrality policy framework globally, integrating these goals into ecological civilization and overall economic and social development [3]. - The country has built the largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system in the world, with installed wind and solar power capacity exceeding 1.69 billion kilowatts, more than three times that of 2020, contributing approximately 80% of new power installations since 2020 [3]. - By the end of 2024, new energy storage capacity is expected to reach 73.76 million kilowatts, which is 20 times that of 2020, accounting for over 40% of global installed capacity [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The "three new" economy (new industries, new business formats, and new models) is projected to account for over 18% of GDP in 2024, an increase of 1.2 percentage points since 2020 [4]. - China has become the largest market for new energy vehicles, with a total of 36.89 million electric vehicles by mid-2025, representing over half of the global total [4]. - The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in the domestic market reached 52.2% from January to September 2025, ranking first among major economies [4]. Group 3: Energy Efficiency and Circular Economy - China is one of the fastest countries in the world to reduce energy intensity, with a cumulative decrease of 11.6% in energy consumption per unit of GDP from 2020 to 2024 [5]. - The country has developed the most complete and efficient circular economy system globally, with a comprehensive utilization rate of major solid waste reaching 59% by 2024 [5]. - The annual utilization of major recycled resources exceeds 400 million tons, with the production of recycled non-ferrous metals reaching 19.15 million tons, maintaining the top position globally for 15 consecutive years [5]. Group 4: Environmental Contributions - China has achieved the fastest and largest increase in greening globally, with a forest coverage rate of 25.09% and a forest stock volume of 20.988 billion cubic meters by 2024 [5]. - The country has successfully realized "zero growth" in land degradation and a dual reduction in desertified and sandy land areas, contributing to a quarter of the world's new green area [5]. - China provides high-quality green low-carbon products to the world, supplying 70% of wind power equipment and 80% of photovoltaic components globally, significantly reducing costs in these sectors [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality development of renewable energy in China, as guided by national policies and targets for carbon neutrality and peak carbon emissions [2]. Summary by Sections Renewable Energy Power Consumption Responsibility Completion - In 2024, the national renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight was completed at 35.2%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - 26 provinces completed the national total consumption responsibility weight, with Sichuan, Yunnan, and Qinghai exceeding 70% [5]. - Only Shanxi, Hubei, and Chongqing did not meet their renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights, with deficits of 0.3, 3.0, and 1.9 percentage points respectively [5][9]. Non-Hydropower Renewable Energy Power Consumption - The actual completion of non-hydropower renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight was 20.8%, up by 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - 28 provinces met the national non-hydropower consumption responsibility weight, with six provinces exceeding 30% [10]. - Shanxi was the only province that did not meet the non-hydropower renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight, with a shortfall of 0.6 percentage points [10][12]. Utilization Rates of Renewable Energy - In 2024, the average wind power utilization rate was 95.9%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [13]. - The average photovoltaic power utilization rate was 96.8%, down by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [13]. - The effective hydropower utilization rate was approximately 99.0%, a decline of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [13]. High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Transmission of Renewable Energy - In 2024, 20 HVDC lines transmitted a total of 705.3 billion kWh, with renewable energy accounting for 400.8 billion kWh, an increase of 22.2% year-on-year [22]. - Renewable energy accounted for 56.8% of the total transmission volume of HVDC lines, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [22]. Clean Energy Demonstration Provinces - In Zhejiang, the total renewable energy power consumption was 170.9 billion kWh, accounting for 25.2% of the province's total electricity consumption, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [24]. - In Sichuan, the total renewable energy power consumption was 298 billion kWh, representing 74.5% of the province's total electricity consumption, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [24]. - In Gansu, the total renewable energy power consumption was 93.1 billion kWh, accounting for 53.3% of the province's total electricity consumption, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [25].