Investment Insights - The report indicates an increase in the risk of "herding" behavior in the market, suggesting a cautious approach until the risk is released [3][4] - Current market focus remains on defensive sectors such as banking, pharmaceuticals, nuclear power, and new consumption themes, with a recommendation to wait for adjustment pressure to ease before making further investments [4] Stock Market Analysis - In the past week, small-cap growth stocks outperformed, while volatility in both large and small-cap styles increased, indicating instability in market styles [6] - The dispersion of excess returns among industry indices has decreased to a near one-year low, with a slight decline in the proportion of rising constituent stocks [6] - Market activity showed a slight increase in volatility, but turnover rates continued to decline, particularly in the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, which reached historically low turnover levels [6] Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market displayed divergent trends, with energy and black metal sectors maintaining their momentum, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals showed upward trends [15] - The basis momentum for the black metal sector increased, while agricultural products remained at a low basis momentum [15] - Volatility was high in the energy sector, while other sectors experienced low-level fluctuations [15] Options Market Insights - Implied volatility for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 1000 showed no significant trend before the Dragon Boat Festival, with long-term contracts experiencing a relative increase in implied volatility compared to short-term contracts [20] - The skew of put options relative to call options for the CSI 1000 maintained an advantage, with a noticeable increase in open interest, indicating market expectations of potential adjustments in small-cap stocks [20] Convertible Bond Market Trends - The convertible bond market saw a slight rebound, with the premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan recovering, although the proportion of low-premium convertible bonds increased slightly [23] - Market transaction volume remained stable, and credit spreads significantly narrowed [23]

股指期货午盘收盘 沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约涨0.41%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约涨0.16%，中证500股指期 货（IC）主力合约涨0.74%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约涨0.82%。 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-06-04 一、指数走势 06 月 03 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.43%，收于 3361.98 点，成交额 4682.93 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.16%，收于 10057.17 点，成交额 6731.17 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.72%，成交额 2342.97 亿元，其中开盘价 6009.18，收盘价 6070.04，当日最高价 6086.62，最低价 6008.54； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.42%，成交额 1599.97 亿元，其中开盘价 5653.67，收盘价 5694.84，当日最高价 5710.42，最低价 5653.3； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.31%，成交额 2267.83 亿元，其中开盘价 3833.46，收盘价 3852.01，当日最高价 3863.3，最低价 3832.72； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.32%，成交额 590.77 亿元，其中开盘价 2674.77，收盘价 2687.3，当日最高价 2697.39，最低价 2671.34。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 ...

沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约涨0.09%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约涨0.01%，中证500股指期 货（IC）主力合约涨0.03%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约跌0.01%。 股指期货早盘开盘 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices closed up collectively, with small - and medium - cap stocks slightly stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The market is currently in a policy vacuum period after the introduction of domestic macro - support policies, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF (2506) latest price is 3824.8, up 4.2; IH (2506) is 2668.6, up 1.4; IC (2506) is 5638.4, up 18.6; IM (2506) is 5998.0, up 40.6. For the next - main contracts, IF (2509) is 3751.8, up 1.4; IH (2509) is 2632.8, up 2.4; IC (2509) is 5455.2, up 12.0; IM (2509) is 5745.0, up 34.6 [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1156.2, up 1.0; IC - IF spread is 1813.6, up 8.2; IM - IC spread is 359.6, up 21.4; IC - IH spread is 2969.8, up 9.2; IM - IF spread is 2173.2, up 29.6; IM - IH spread is 3329.4, up 30.6 [2]. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: IF quarter - to - month is - 73.0, down 2.6; IH is - 35.8, up 1.8; IC is - 183.2, down 7.4; IM is - 253.0, down 6.8. For the next - quarter - to - month, IF is - 108.8, down 1.6; IH is - 35, up 3.8; IC is - 309.6, down 14.2; IM is - 428.8, down 14.0 [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions are - 28,697.00, down 138.0; IH are - 11,498.00, up 686.0; IC are - 11,705.00, up 1088.0; IM are - 30,786.00, down 1498.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - CSI 300 is 3852.01, up 11.8; SSE 50 is 2687.30, up 8.6; CSI 500 is 5694.84, up 23.8; CSI 1000 is 6070.04, up 43.5. IF basis is - 27.2, down 9.4; IH basis is - 18.7, down 7.2; IC basis is - 56.4, down 13.2; IM basis is - 72.0, down 11.5 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 11,638.30 billion yuan, down 4.16; margin trading balance is 18,009.47 billion yuan, down 84.23; north - bound trading volume is 1526.22 billion yuan, up 147.72; reverse repurchase: expiration is - 8300.0 billion yuan, operation is + 4545.0 billion yuan; main funds are - 496.74 billion yuan, down 95.94; the proportion of rising stocks is 62.64%, up 42.00; Shibor is 1.410%, down 0.061 [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score 6.50, up 3.40; technical aspect scores 6.30, up 4.30; capital aspect scores 6.70, up 2.60 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; comprehensive PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. New export and import order indices rose significantly [2]. - The US will raise steel import tariffs from 25% to 50% starting June 4 [2]. - The US extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation against China from May 31 to August 31 [2]. - The US accused China of violating the Geneva economic and trade talks consensus, and China firmly rejected the baseless accusation and urged the US to correct its wrong actions [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to Sino-US trade uncertainties, the Hong Kong stock market had a slight correction during the Dragon Boat Festival, and overseas markets were volatile with gold and crude oil prices rising. Domestic indices are expected to open slightly lower, and the market lacks a short - term main line. It is advisable to reduce positions on significant intraday rallies and add positions on significant drops [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Early Evaluation of Index Futures - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US trade uncertainties and the slight correction of the Hong Kong stock market during the Dragon Boat Festival, along with overseas market volatility, may lead to a slight lower opening of domestic indices, rated as neutral. The IC2506 and IM2506 contracts are at a discount, rated as bearish [2]. - **Funds**: The margin trading balance is 1797.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.2 billion yuan, rated as neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The IH2506 contract is at a discount of 11.5 points, and the IF2506 contract is at a discount of 17.83 points, rated as neutral [2]. - **Market Trends**: IH > IF > IC > IM (main contracts). IF and IH are above the 20 - day moving average, rated as bullish; IM and IC are below the 20 - day moving average, rated as bearish [2]. - **Main Positions**: The long positions of the main IH contracts decreased, those of the main IF contracts increased, and those of the main IC contracts decreased, rated as bullish [3]. 2. Futures Market - Basis and Spread - **Shanghai Composite 50**: The report presents the basis and spread data of Shanghai Composite 50 index futures contracts from 2021 to 2025 [4][6]. - **CSI 500**: The report shows the basis and spread data of CSI 500 index futures contracts from 2021 to 2025 [4][9]. 3. Spot Market - Daily Returns of Important Indices - The daily returns of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, and others are presented, with most indices showing a decline [12]. 4. Spot Market - Daily Returns of Style Indices - The daily returns of style indices including 300 Cycle, 300 Non - Cycle, and others are presented, with varying degrees of rise and fall [15][18]. 5. Market Structure - AH Share Premium - The report shows the trend of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index from 2024 to 2025 [21]. 6. Market Structure - Price - Earnings Ratio (PE) and Price - to - Book Ratio (PB) - **PE**: The historical PE data of Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented from 2004 to 2025 [24]. - **PB**: The historical PB data of Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented from 2004 to 2025 [26]. 7. Market Capital - Flow - **Stock Market Capital Inflow**: The historical data of A - share capital net inflow and CSI 300 are presented from 2021 to 2025 [28]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: The historical data of margin trading balance and CSI 300 are presented from 2021 to 2025 [30]. - **Northbound Capital Inflow**: The historical data of northbound capital net inflow are presented from 2021 to 2024 [32]. - **Funding Cost**: The historical data of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week are presented from 2024 to 2025 [38]. 8. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The historical data of turnover rates of Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented from 2022 to 2025 [41][44]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: The report presents relevant data, but specific details are not elaborated [46]. 9. Other Data - **Dividend Yield and Bond Yield**: The historical data of dividend yields of index futures and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds are presented from 2015 to 2025 [50]. - **Exchange Rate**: The historical data of the US dollar - RMB exchange rate are presented from 2021 to 2025 [52]. - **New Account Openings and Index Tracking**: The report presents relevant data, but specific details are not elaborated [53]. - **Newly Established Fund Sizes**: The report shows the changes in the newly established sizes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds, but specific details are not provided [55][57][59].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 6 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周股指呈现震荡整理的走势。目前股指上行空间以及下行空间均较为有限，政策面托底 需求以及稳定股市预期的支撑作用较强，而外部不确定性风险以及内需走弱则分 ...

中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约突破6000点，日内涨0.72%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market ended its decline and stabilized yesterday due to the ruling of the US International Trade Court and the unfreezing of funds on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with the technology sector leading the gains [2]. - The index has stopped falling and stabilized. A significant intraday rise at the current level is an opportunity to reduce positions, while a sharp decline is a chance to increase positions. The market lacks a clear short - term mainline [5]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **IH Contracts**: IH2506 had a price of 2,673.60 with a 0.25% increase, a trading volume of 37,631, and a discount of 17.29 points. IH2507, IH2509, and IH2512 also showed price increases and varying degrees of discounts [6]. - **IF Contracts**: IF2506 had a price of 3,832.80 with a 0.68% increase, a trading volume of 70,602, and a discount of 25.90 points. Other IF contracts also had price increases and different discount levels [6]. - **IC Contracts**: IC2506 had a price of 5,668.60 with a 1.89% increase, a trading volume of 68,773, and a discount of 51.31 points. Other IC contracts followed a similar pattern [6]. - **IM Contracts**: IM2506 had a price of 6,031.00 with a 2.35% increase, a trading volume of 166,397, and a discount of 58.58 points. Other IM contracts also showed price increases and discounts [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Important Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and other important indexes had different daily percentage changes, with the CSI 500 rising 1.47% and the ChiNext Index rising 1.24% [15]. - **Style Indexes**: Different style indexes such as the 300 Cycle, 300 Non - Cycle, and others had varying daily percentage changes, with the Small - Cap Index (Shenwan) rising 1.82% and the 300 Growth rising 2.29% [18]. 3.3 Market Structure - **AH - Share Premium**: The Hang Seng AH Premium Index showed fluctuations over time [24]. - **PE and PB**: The PE (TTM) and PB of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index had long - term trends [27][29]. 3.4 Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Inflows**: The net inflow of A - share funds and the CSI 300 index showed historical trends [31]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index had historical trends [33]. - **Northbound Inflows**: The net inflow of northbound funds showed historical fluctuations [35]. - **Funding Costs**: SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates showed historical trends [41]. 3.5 Market Sentiment - **Turnover Activity**: The turnover rates of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index (based on free - floating market capitalization) showed historical trends [44][47]. - **Public - Fund Mixed - Fund Positions**: The positions of public - fund mixed - funds showed historical trends [49]. 3.6 Other Indicators - **Dividend Yield and Bond Yield**: The dividend yields of index futures and the ten - year government bond yield showed historical trends [53]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate showed historical trends [55]. - **New Account Openings and Index Tracking**: The number of new account openings and the Shanghai Composite Index showed a tracking relationship [56]. - **Newly Established Fund Sizes**: The sizes of newly established stock - type, mixed - type, and bond - type funds showed historical changes [58][60][62].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理，小幅下跌。股市全市场成交额 10339 亿元，较上日放量 98 亿元。 目前股指上行空间以及下行空间均较为有限，政策面托底需求以及稳定股市预期的支撑作用较强，而 外部不确定性风险以及内需走弱则分别从风险偏好以及盈利预期两方面抑制股指的上行动能。当前 市场风险偏好谨慎乐观，市场驱动力量不强。总的来说，预计短期内股指区间震荡为主。。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...