Group 1 - A50ETF Huabao (159596) is actively traded with a transaction amount of 45.2 million yuan as of the report date [1] - CITIC Securities anticipates that domestic policies will be supportive and responsive, with April marking the first wave characterized by experimentation and prevention [1] - The current market sentiment is not low, with the technology sector being more sensitive to risk appetite recovery compared to pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors [1] Group 2 - The recent policies are described as responsive, aimed at directly assisting enterprises impacted by trade shocks, and experimental, focusing on expanding support for the service industry [1] - The Politburo meeting introduced new policy ideas, including a strong emphasis on developing service consumption and support for foreign trade enterprises [1] - A second round of policies is expected to emerge around mid-year, with May's strategy focusing on "high cut low" [1] Group 3 - A50ETF Huabao and its off-market linked funds passively track the CSI A50 Index, which includes 50 leading stocks from various sectors, representing core assets in the A-share market [2] - The index is designed to reflect benchmark core assets in the A-share market, making A50 a preferred choice for bullish sentiment on China [2] Group 4 - MACD golden cross signals have formed, indicating positive momentum for certain stocks [3]

Group 1 - The CSI 300 Index experienced a slight decline of 0.18% as of April 28, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, led by Nanshan Aluminum up 6.34% and Mango Excellent Media down [1] - The CSI 300 ETF saw significant growth in scale, increasing by 6.674 billion yuan over the past six months, with a notable increase in shares by 3.997 billion [3] - The latest price-to-book ratio (PB) of the CSI 300 Index is 1.34, which is lower than 80.61% of the time since the index's inception, indicating a strong valuation appeal [3] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Index as of March 31, 2025, include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, and Ping An Insurance, collectively accounting for 23.04% of the index [4] - Investors without stock accounts can access core A-share assets through the CSI 300 ETF linked fund (160724) for low-cost entry [4]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that progress in US-China trade negotiations may be limited until all unilateral tariffs on China are completely lifted [1] - Domestic policies are characterized as stabilizing and responsive, with April representing the first wave of experimental and preventive measures [1] - The market sentiment is not considered low overall, with the technology sector being more sensitive to risk appetite recovery compared to pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors [1] Group 1 - In May, the focus will be on the rotation of new technologies and industrial themes, the repair of overseas technology mapping chains, and the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies in the service industry [1] - The current market environment favors themes that are less sensitive to performance, as the clearing of chips has been relatively thorough [1]

50等大盘股微跌，小盘股上涨。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘微涨微跌，波动不大，还在5.1星。 昨天比较坚挺的价值风格，今天微跌，成长风格微涨。 最近市场风格轮动比较明显。 遇到下跌的时候，大盘、价值股相对抗跌； 遇到上涨的时候，小盘股、成长股弹性更大。 盈亏同源。 两者搭配会让组合更稳定一些。 1. 昨天有朋友问，像红利等指数基金，有一些成立以来，年化达到10%以上甚至更高。 看起来红利指数的波动也不大，那投资者岂不是很容易就拿到这个收益？ 那投指数基金还有啥难的？ 确实，是有一些红利指数基金，成立多年，年化达到10%以上（加上分红）。 例如最基础的中证红利。这个多年甚至达到10年以上。 投资者在低估的时候买入红利基金，并长期坚持下来，也会获得这个收益。 当时有价值风格的基金，被投资者赎回超过90%。 2022年-2024年，红利等指数，在熊市中比较有优势，跑赢了大盘。 这两年红利又受欢迎。 从全市场角度， 但难就难在坚持上。 基金投资者，平均持有股票基金的时间长度是几个月。 但是A股是存在风格轮动的。 红利属于价值风格，遇到成长风格牛市的时候，就会跑输市场。 例如在2019-2020年 ...

过去几年，人民币债券是一轮小牛市。 到了2024年，长期债券在上涨后，波动也逐渐变大。 很多朋友都会关心： 这里为大家准备了一门限时免费的课程，详细介绍了债券指数基金的相关问题。 长按识别下方二维码，添加@课程小助手，回复「 债券基金 」即可领取～ ◆◆◆ 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 类似的，估值当前比较低的品种，未来更有 可能会迎来上涨。 不过也需要注意，即便都是低估，但之后上 涨的先后顺序可能会有一些区别。 例如2018年底时，成长风格、价值风格都 处于较低的位置，随后， · 2019-2020年，成长风格率先上涨； ·一直到2021年后，价值风格才开始上涨。 因为整个市场上，投资者的资金就那么多， 不同风格的品种往往不是同涨同跌的，会出 现风格上的轮动。 所以，我们在投资时，可以在熊市底部分散 配置不同风格的低估品种。 · 债券基金的收益和风险，有哪些特点？ · 为何普通投资者，更适合投资债券指数基金？ · 当前哪些债券指数基金，投资价值较高？ 不过,尽管每轮上涨的风格有别,但也会有 一些共同的特征。 比如说，之前估值比较高的品种，之后可能 会迎来估值回归，下跌幅度会比较大。 例如大盘成长， ...

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 张翼轸 来源：雪球 金融市场的海洋上 ， 永远不缺新的风暴 。2025 年的这一场 ， 似乎格外的 " 狂暴 " 。 回顾过去几十年 ， 全球股民被灌输了一种深刻而普遍的信念 ， 即 市场是可以被合理预测的 ， 股票的价值 可以透过清晰且精准的基本面分析被掌握 。 华尔街的精英们 ， 每年花费无数个夜晚和无数杯咖啡 ， 聚精会神地盯着那些财务报表 ， 期望从每个企业 的现金流中看出未来数十年的轨迹 。 然而这套思维逻辑 ， 建立在全球化 、 自由贸易和稳定的国际秩序基础之上 。 当2025年的春天 ， 当我们 看到了245%的关税税率之时 ， 我们不得不面对一个骤变的可能 ： 这个基石已然不再牢靠 。 是的 ， 基本面分析依赖于一个隐秘的前提 ： 我们预测企业的未来时 ， 默认全球贸易自由畅通 ， 资本流 动不会受到严重阻碍 ， 地缘政治的稳定不会受到根本性破坏 。 然而 ， 今天这些曾被视作理所当然的假设 ， 变得比任何时候都更脆弱 、 更不确定 。 基本面分析正在陷入两重尴尬 ： 第一重尴尬是 ， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing unpredictability of fundamental analysis in the context of rising geopolitical tensions and trade barriers, suggesting that traditional investment strategies may no longer be effective [3][4][5]. Group 1: Challenges to Fundamental Analysis - The predictability of corporate futures is severely eroded due to trade wars, tariff barriers, and supply chain restructuring, making financial reports increasingly difficult to forecast [4]. - If the Nasdaq enters a bear market, the era of easily outperforming global markets by betting on the U.S. stock market may come to an end [4]. - The golden age of globalization is over, and the dominance of single markets may be a thing of the past, leading to increased risks and a shift in investment philosophies [4][5]. Group 2: New Investment Paradigms - Investors must now consider new questions regarding which countries will maintain open capital markets, which currencies remain trustworthy, and how global commodity prices will reshape in a new trade landscape [7][8]. - The future of investing may require a greater reliance on geopolitical and historical understanding rather than solely on financial statements [8]. - Asset allocation is proposed as a new "lifebuoy" for investors, emphasizing diversification to manage risks associated with geopolitical shocks [10][11]. Group 3: Historical Context and Strategies - The article references the "Permanent Portfolio" strategy, which aims to hedge against global uncertainties, suggesting that similar asset allocation strategies are relevant today [14]. - The importance of maintaining a balanced asset allocation is highlighted, with a suggested simple portfolio of 25% in gold, U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and cash [11][15]. - Momentum investing is discussed as a disciplined strategy that can yield excess returns across various asset classes, with a focus on maintaining positions in the strongest assets [18][19].

Group 1 - The A-share market has ended its nine-day rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing and major sectors like liquor, banking, real estate, and securities entering a consolidation phase [1] - Small-cap stocks have shown a rebound, but they are still over 20% below their April highs, indicating a potential for further recovery [3] - The market is experiencing a "volume washout," where the pullback is seen as a strategy for better upward movement, with hopes of reaching the 3400-point mark before the upcoming holiday [3][5] Group 2 - The overall market trend is expected to be oscillating upwards, with no significant negative news anticipated before the holiday, suggesting a stable environment for the index [5] - There is a rotation among sectors, with small-cap stocks rebounding today and expectations that large-cap stocks will lift the index in the near future [5] - The current market conditions are not favorable for speculative trading, and a focus on index and value investing is recommended instead [7]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【点评报告】 形态学研究之十五：形态学在 ETF 轮动上的研究 ❖ 摘要 ETF 轮动，是指在不同 ETF 之间切换，根据市场情况调整投资组合。可涉及 到不同资产类别、行业或地区。比如如何选择 ETF，轮动的依据是什么，比如 动量、估值、宏观经济指标等。 本篇，我们提出了使用形态作为原始数据，将 ETF 成分股合成 ETF 信号的方 式来做 ETF 轮动。在先前报告中，我们已经成功基于成分股的形态构建了指 数、ETF 的择时策略，现在就是设计指标将同一截面下的各个 ETF 指数数据 可比，就可以构建 ETF 轮动策略。 当我们把 ETF 指数每天的多空个股个数求和后，除以当时该 ETF 指数的成分 股个数，在进行 30 天的 HMA 均线求解后，该指标就表征了该 ETF 从结构上 形态学的看多或者看空力量的变化与对比，由于都除以了成分股个数，也消除 了不同 ETF 因为成分股个数不同不可比的情况。 基于历史数据回测，不管是固定时间点调仓、每日调仓、或者是买入持有信号 消失退出策略等，都可跑赢万得偏股混合型基金指数。固定时间点调仓策略优 势在于计算量少，交易次数低，手续费少，但收益率也一 ...

广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 SAC: S0260517080003 chenyuanwen@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 ETF市场概况： 指数化投资理念愈发受到投资者认可，ETF产品凭借透明、低费率、交易便捷等优势，成为居民资产配置的重要工具，ETF 规模持续创新高，ETF资金流变动逐渐成为市场中的关注重点。 ETF交易机制特点： ETF具有独特的双层交易机制，即一级市场的申购赎回和二级市场的买卖交易，一级申赎指用一篮子股票换取ETF份 额，申赎会直接增减ETF的总份额。本报告旨在针对申赎导致的ETF资金流数据，探索用于ETF轮动的配置效果。 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券 资深金工分析师 陈原文 风险提示： 本专题报告所述模型用量化方法通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，所得结论与规律在市场政策、环境变化时可能存在失效风 险；策略在市场结构及交易行为的改变时有可能存在策略失效风险；因量化模型不同，本报告提出的 ...