Investment Core Principles - Invest in companies with high returns on new capital, as past performance does not guarantee future growth potential [3] - Volatility is not synonymous with risk; true risk arises from a lack of understanding of the investment and the company's characteristics [3] Valuation and Investment Guidelines - Intrinsic value is determined by the total future cash flows a company can generate, discounted at an appropriate rate [4] - Maintain a margin of safety by understanding the company, its competitive advantages, and ensuring reasonable valuation [4] - Avoid over-diversification; focus on quality investments rather than spreading capital too thinly [4] Timing and Strategy - Do not wait for market crashes to invest; act decisively when identifying companies with sustainable competitive advantages and reasonable pricing [5] - Small investors should consider investing in smaller companies, as they often have greater price discrepancies and potential for significant growth [5] - Stock buybacks should only occur when the stock is undervalued and there are no better uses for capital [5] - Long-term holding of excellent companies is advisable unless there are significant changes in valuation or company fundamentals [5] Conclusion - Understanding and applying Buffett's investment principles can guide investors in their wealth accumulation journey [6]

Core Insights - The aviation engine industry seeks optimal solutions under the "impossible triangle," aiming to balance three core performance goals: strong power, ultra-low fuel consumption, and extreme reliability [5][8][9] - Investment opportunities lie in identifying companies with unique business models and significant long-term value, particularly when pricing is relatively insufficient [4][30] Group 1: Aviation Engine Fundamentals - Aviation engines are characterized by the need to meet three conflicting performance indicators: powerful thrust, low fuel consumption, and high reliability [5][8] - The industry standard for civil aviation engines requires engines to provide sufficient power for aircraft weighing up to 80 tons while achieving fuel consumption of 2 liters per 100 kilometers per seat [7] - Reliability standards demand that engines operate without failure for approximately 30 years, equating to 100,000 hours of operation with a maximum of one unscheduled stop [7][8] Group 2: Business Model and Competitive Landscape - The aviation engine industry exemplifies the "super knife and blade" model, where engines are sold at low initial costs, while high-margin maintenance and service revenues are generated over time [9][10] - The CFM56 engine serves as a prime example, with a 17-year development cycle and a delivery span of 33 years, showcasing the long-term technological advantage [10][12] - The high resale value of engines is attributed to rigorous lifecycle management and maintenance, ensuring that engines retain significant value even as the aircraft depreciates [12][13] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The aviation engine market is currently characterized by a stable operating environment, with after-market service revenues becoming increasingly critical [26][27] - The global supply chain's disruptions have led to delays in aircraft deliveries, which paradoxically boosts after-market service demand as older engines require more maintenance [27][28] - Market inefficiencies arise from a lack of understanding and accurate pricing in the aviation engine sector, presenting opportunities for investors to capitalize on mispriced assets [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [2][16]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals achieved revenue of CNY 70.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 1.33 billion, down 13.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in profit contributions from the Pharmaceutical Manufacturing segment and one-time losses [3][13]. - The Pharmaceutical Service segment demonstrated strong resilience, with revenue reaching CNY 64.88 billion, up 2.6% year-on-year, driven by innovative business initiatives [3][14]. - The report forecasts revenue growth of 8% for FY2025 and 7.3% for FY2026, with net profit growth expected to be 9.3% in FY2025 and 9.9% in FY2026 [11][16]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2023 was CNY 260.3 billion, with a projected increase to CNY 275.3 billion in FY2024 and CNY 297.3 billion in FY2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.2%, 5.7%, and 8.0% respectively [11][16]. - The gross profit margin for FY2025 is projected at 11.2%, with a slight decrease to 11.1% in FY2026 [11][16]. - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 7.4x for FY2025 and 6.7x for FY2026, suggesting the stock is undervalued compared to its earnings potential [5][16]. Segment Performance - The Pharmaceutical Service segment's revenue includes CNY 1.8 billion from Contract Sales Organization (CSO) services, up 9.9% year-on-year, and CNY 12.5 billion from innovative drug distribution, up 23.2% year-on-year [3][14]. - The Pharmaceutical Manufacturing segment reported revenue of CNY 5.89 billion, down 15.3% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year [14][16]. Valuation - The target price for Shanghai Pharmaceuticals is set at HKD 13.73, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model with a WACC of 6.2% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% [5][16].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the rising gold prices and the corresponding increase in gold mining company stock prices, Gold Road Resources, a mid-sized gold mining company, has decided to sell itself to Gold Fields for AUD 3.7 billion, indicating a strategic move in the current market environment [1][3]. Company Summary - Gold Road Resources holds a 50% non-operating interest in the Gruyere gold mine, which has produced over 1.5 million ounces of gold since its production began in mid-2019 [1]. - The sale to Gold Fields is a cash transaction, meaning Gold Road shareholders will exit the Gruyere project and will not benefit from future profits projected to be AUD 560 million for FY26 and AUD 500 million for FY27 [3][6]. - CEO Duncan Gibbs believes that the gold price will continue to rise, but the decision to sell was influenced by institutional investors who were eager to capitalize on the offered price [6][8]. Industry Summary - The gold market is characterized by a unique dynamic where rising gold prices lead to increased M&A activity, contrary to typical market behavior where buyers are more cautious during high valuations [7]. - The Australian stock market is experiencing a structural issue with a lack of new IPOs, leading to a shrinking number of investment opportunities, particularly in the gold sector [8]. - The primary factor influencing the valuation of gold mining companies is the gold price itself, rather than management or asset quality, which explains why seven out of the top ten performing companies on the ASX this year are gold mining firms [8].

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 张翼轸 来源：雪球 金融市场的海洋上 ， 永远不缺新的风暴 。2025 年的这一场 ， 似乎格外的 " 狂暴 " 。 回顾过去几十年 ， 全球股民被灌输了一种深刻而普遍的信念 ， 即 市场是可以被合理预测的 ， 股票的价值 可以透过清晰且精准的基本面分析被掌握 。 华尔街的精英们 ， 每年花费无数个夜晚和无数杯咖啡 ， 聚精会神地盯着那些财务报表 ， 期望从每个企业 的现金流中看出未来数十年的轨迹 。 然而这套思维逻辑 ， 建立在全球化 、 自由贸易和稳定的国际秩序基础之上 。 当2025年的春天 ， 当我们 看到了245%的关税税率之时 ， 我们不得不面对一个骤变的可能 ： 这个基石已然不再牢靠 。 是的 ， 基本面分析依赖于一个隐秘的前提 ： 我们预测企业的未来时 ， 默认全球贸易自由畅通 ， 资本流 动不会受到严重阻碍 ， 地缘政治的稳定不会受到根本性破坏 。 然而 ， 今天这些曾被视作理所当然的假设 ， 变得比任何时候都更脆弱 、 更不确定 。 基本面分析正在陷入两重尴尬 ： 第一重尴尬是 ， ...