Global Market Performance - The global stock market showed mixed results last week, with the US indices displaying divergence; the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose while the Dow Jones experienced a slight pullback [3] - In Europe, the FTSE 100 and DAX indices increased, whereas the CAC40 index saw a minor decline [3] - The Asia-Pacific region also had mixed results, with the SENSEX30 index in India retreating [3] Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a moderate increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, marking a four-month high [3] - Core CPI rose by 0.23% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly below expectations [3] - The impact of tariffs on specific product categories is becoming more pronounced, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [3] Stablecoin Legislation - On July 17, the US Congress passed three significant bills regarding stablecoin regulation, which were signed into law by President Trump [4] - The GENIUS Act mandates that stablecoin issuers must hold reserves in a 1:1 ratio with US dollars, enhancing the security of funds held by users [4] - The CLARITY Act delineates the regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, establishing a framework for digital assets linked to blockchain technology [6] - The Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing retail central bank digital currency without explicit Congressional authorization, ensuring that the future of digital dollars remains in the private sector [7] Market Implications of Legislation - The passage of these bills is expected to create a new dominance in the digital finance sector, reinforcing the US's position in the global cryptocurrency market [8] - By binding stablecoins closely to the US dollar, the legislation aims to strengthen the dollar's role in the international monetary system [8] - The demand for US Treasury bonds may diversify as stablecoin issuers are likely to purchase them, alleviating selling pressure and potentially lowering government borrowing costs [8] Market Strategy - Following recent highs in the US stock market, caution is advised due to potential volatility stemming from ongoing tariff negotiations and changing interest rate expectations [3] - The report suggests focusing on high-certainty interest rate trades and sectors with strong growth potential, such as nuclear power and semiconductors, as a strategy to navigate increased market fluctuations [3]

上述公告引发了资本市场的关注，医疗资产也能"代币化"，华检医疗显然开创稳定币交易所先河。对于公司的"跨界"创举，市场也不乏质疑的声 音，认为公司"会讲故事"、涉嫌蹭"稳定币"的风口。 7月21日，港股的华检医疗（01931.HK）跳空高开并急速上涨，一度涨58%(4.66港元），创下上市以来的新高。随后公司股价震荡回落，收盘仍 大涨32.88%，报3.92港元/股，市值63.56亿港元。 值得注意的是，华检医疗上周五亦录得大涨超20%，两日内累计上涨60%，公司成交量也随之放大，近两个交易日累计成交逾5000万港元，投资 者疯狂涌入，公司沉寂许久的股价一下子成了香饽饽。 股价暴涨的导火索源于近期的重磅利好—— 消息面，7月17日，华检医疗发布公告称，公司已正式启动向香港、以及美国相关监管部门提交稳定币发行牌照申请的部署工作，准备冲刺全球首 个在港美两大市场获得稳定币发行资质的医疗科技企业。 7月20日，公司再次发布公告称，旗下美国全资子公司IVDGROUPINC.已完成注册，即日起公司透过该子公司正式启动向美国监管机构提交稳定 币牌照申请的程序；同时以医疗创新药NewCo资产为核心的Web3交易所生态——IV ...

Core Viewpoint - The passage of three key bills by the U.S. House of Representatives marks a pivotal moment in the history of American digital finance, initiating a transformation of the global on-chain financial order [2][14]. Group 1: Legislative Developments - The U.S. House of Representatives approved the "GENIUS Act," "CLARITY Act," and "Anti-CBDC Act," which institutionalize the regulatory framework for digital assets in the U.S. and aim to protect consumer rights while reinforcing the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [2][3]. - The "GENIUS Act" mandates that stablecoin issuers must hold dollar-equivalent assets, ensuring a 1:1 redemption capability, and comply with "Know Your Customer" and anti-money laundering regulations [4][8]. - The "CLARITY Act" clarifies the regulatory roles of the SEC and CFTC, providing clear rules for the cryptocurrency market and establishing a legal basis for the classification of most cryptocurrencies as commodities rather than securities [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the passage of the "GENIUS Act," Circle's stock, viewed as the "on-chain dollar's first stock," rebounded from a low of $195.33 to $233.45, reflecting market optimism [12]. - However, Circle's stock experienced a decline of 4.8% to $223.78 due to profit-taking and concerns over future compliance costs and reserve disclosures [13]. - The financial market's cautious attitude is evident, as indicated by the mixed performance of major indices following the legislative developments [11]. Group 3: Global Context and Future Outlook - The introduction of these bills is seen as a response to the global competition in digital currencies, with over 130 countries researching central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and several already piloting them [14][15]. - The "Anti-CBDC Act" prohibits the issuance of retail CBDCs, reflecting concerns over government surveillance and privacy, while simultaneously paving the way for stablecoins [8][15]. - The legislation signifies a shift in the relationship between digital economy, sovereign currency, and personal privacy, with potential implications for the future of monetary policy and financial stability in the U.S. [15].

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the GENIUS Act by President Trump is paving the way for the issuance and regulation of stablecoins in the U.S., which may disrupt traditional banking systems in the next 2 to 3 years [1][2]. Legislative Developments - The GENIUS Act establishes a preliminary framework for stablecoin issuance and regulation, while the CLARITY Act aims to clarify the jurisdiction of the SEC and CFTC over the crypto market [1]. - These legislative advancements signify a shift in focus from policy debates to the actual construction of infrastructure in the digital asset market [2]. Market Growth Projections - The stablecoin market is expected to see moderate growth of approximately $25 billion to $75 billion in the short term, which will likely increase demand for U.S. Treasury securities, particularly short-term bills [2]. Banking Sector Response - U.S. banks are preparing for the stablecoin era, with management expressing readiness to offer stablecoin solutions, although there are concerns regarding specific use cases, especially in domestic payment scenarios [3]. - Major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup are exploring stablecoin capabilities, with JPMorgan launching its deposit token (JPMD) and Citigroup investing in digital asset services [6][7]. Cross-Border Payment Opportunities - Despite skepticism about domestic applications, bank executives see viable use cases for stablecoins in cross-border payments, with some banks viewing this as a "greenfield" market [4]. Short-Term Impact on Domestic Payments - Most banks anticipate minimal short-term impact on their core domestic payment businesses from stablecoins, although competition in cash management services may intensify [5]. Bank Comments on Stablecoins - JPMorgan is actively entering the stablecoin and digital asset space, while Bank of America acknowledges small cross-border payments as a realistic application [6]. - Citigroup is focusing on tokenized services, despite high transaction costs for converting between fiat and stablecoins [6][7]. Digital Asset Applications - Banks are exploring four main application scenarios for digital assets: reserve management and custody services for stablecoins, transaction services, issuing their own stablecoins, and tokenized deposits [7][8]. Future Outlook - Various banks, including PNC and M&T, are developing digital asset services and assessing the feasibility of stablecoins as payment mechanisms, indicating a growing interest in the sector [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent passage of three key bills in the U.S. Congress marks a significant institutionalization of the regulatory framework for digital assets, particularly stablecoins, aiming to protect consumer rights and reinforce the dollar's status as the global reserve currency while fostering the development of the Web3.0 industry [2][3][8]. Group 1: GENIUS Act - The GENIUS Act mandates that stablecoin issuers must hold dollar-equivalent assets, such as U.S. Treasury securities, to ensure a 1:1 redemption capability and comply with "Know Your Customer" and anti-money laundering regulations [3][6]. - This act provides legal recognition to dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDT and USDC, establishing a critical turning point for their acceptance by global banks and financial institutions [3][7]. - The act was passed with a vote of 308 in favor and 122 against, reflecting a significant legislative achievement during the "crypto week" [7]. Group 2: CLARITY Act - The CLARITY Act aims to eliminate regulatory overlap between the SEC and CFTC, providing clear definitions and delineating regulatory responsibilities for the Web3.0 industry [4][5]. - It classifies most cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, as "digital commodities," thus providing them with a non-securities designation [4][5]. - The act introduces a distinction between "investment contracts" and "investment contract assets," allowing certain projects to be recognized as securities during fundraising but not necessarily as securities for their tokens [5]. Group 3: Anti-CBDC Act - The Anti-CBDC Act prohibits the issuance of retail digital dollars to the public, reflecting concerns over government surveillance through central bank digital currencies [6][8]. - This legislation is seen as a way to protect consumer privacy and freedom while paving the way for stablecoins [6][8]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the passage of the GENIUS Act, Circle's stock price rebounded from a low of $195.33 to $233.45, but subsequently fell by 4.8% to $223.78 due to profit-taking and concerns over compliance costs [7]. - The overall market response to the legislative developments has been cautious, as indicated by the mixed performance of major indices like the Dow Jones and Nasdaq [6][7]. Group 5: Global Context - The introduction of these bills is viewed as a response to the global competition in digital currencies, with over 130 countries researching central bank digital currencies [8][9]. - The U.S. regulatory framework for stablecoins is positioned as a strategic move to maintain the dollar's dominance in the evolving financial landscape [9].

瑞典北欧斯安银行：日本政坛不稳定性加剧，高额债务下的财政压力增加 巴克莱：解雇鲍威尔或适得其反，美联储独立性对货币政策走向至关重要 【机构分析】 瑞典北欧斯安银行首席经济学家Robert Bergqvist在报告中指出，日本执政联盟在周日参议院选举中的重 大失利，将加剧本已紧张的美日关系。在美日关系紧绷的背景下，此次败选将进一步放大日本政坛的不 稳定性。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，日本政府债务到2025年将达GDP的235%。日本政界人 士仍需兑现竞选时承诺的财政刺激措施。这意味着即使面临高额债务，日本政府也面临着实施财政刺激 以满足选民期望的压力。 巴克莱分析指出，解雇现任美联储主席鲍威尔并不会促使联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）更快地进行降 息。实际上，这种行为可能会导致相反的效果。如果市场开始质疑美联储的独立性，这可能导致通胀预 期上升以及长期利率（收益率）的攀升。这样的市场反应可能会迫使FOMC采取更为保守的态度，甚至 有可能延长维持现有利率的时间，或者在必要时重启加息以应对潜在的通胀压力。美联储即使任命了一 位新的美联储主席，这位新主席也很难单方面改变货币政策的方向。任何货币政策的变化都需要得 ...

【实时热点】 2025 年 7 月 21 日星期一 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 特朗普签署稳定币法案 美联储理事沃勒继续发出 7 月降息的呼吁 美国 7 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 61.8，创五个月新 高 日本执政联盟丧失参议院过半数议席 日本 6 月核心 CPI 同比回落至 3.3% 伦敦证券交易所集团考虑推出 24 小时交易 我国消费市场规模稳居全球第二 娃哈哈宗氏财产纠纷案定于 8 月 1 日在香港高等法院聆讯 饿了么、美团、京东被约谈 加密货币交易所 Bullish 申请美国 IPO 2 年期美债收益率跌 3.32 个基点报 3.8628% 5 年期美债收益率跌 4.92 个基点报 3.9395% 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.98 个基点报 4.4095% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 波罗的海干散货 | 2052 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which highlights the inherent instability of a unipolar international monetary system, is relevant to understanding the current situation [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Theoretical Framework - The article references historical instances, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the UK's currency crisis in 1931, to illustrate the recurring nature of these monetary challenges [4]. - The discussion emphasizes that the current issues with the dollar system are not isolated but are part of a broader historical pattern of monetary instability [4]. Group 3: Role of Stablecoins - The article raises questions about the nature and functions of stablecoins, exploring their potential roles in the monetary system and their relationship with the US dollar [5]. - It suggests that discussions around stablecoins should return to fundamental questions about the essence and functions of money [5]. Group 4: Political and Economic Interconnections - The relationship between alliance politics, monetary relations, and strategy is highlighted, indicating that the dollar and gold issues are deeply intertwined with broader political concerns, such as US-NATO relations [6]. - The article stresses the importance of understanding economic policies in conjunction with strategic and foreign policy issues, particularly in the context of a chaotic international monetary system [6].

Group 1: Company Overview - Circle, a leading stablecoin issuer, officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange on June 5, 2025, with an initial price of $31 per share [1] - The stock price surged to a historical high of $299 within just 12 trading days, reflecting strong growth momentum [1] - As of July 18, Circle's stock closed at $223.78, representing a significant increase of 622% from the issuance price, with a total market capitalization nearing $50 billion [1] Group 2: Stablecoin Characteristics - Stablecoins are a form of cryptocurrency that is strictly pegged to fiat currencies, serving as a direct representation of fiat in the digital realm [2] - They can be likened to American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) in several dimensions, including the issuance of asset ownership certificates and a dual intermediary structure [2][3] - The legal framework for stablecoins has been clarified with the passage of the "Genius Act," which defines stablecoins as a "payment tool" rather than a security, commodity, or investment product [3] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The "Genius Act" provides a solid foundation for the legal use of stablecoins in the U.S., distinguishing them from securities and establishing their application scope [3] - In contrast, the "Anti-CBDC Act" prohibits the issuance of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in the U.S., highlighting a significant regulatory divergence from China's proactive promotion of the digital yuan [3]

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations with a total trading volume of 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with mixed performance among individual stocks [1] - Key sectors showing gains included rare earth permanent magnets, lithium mining, non-ferrous metals, and coal, while gaming, photovoltaics, CPO, and consumer electronics sectors faced declines [1] - CITIC Securities highlighted continuous catalysts in the AI computing power sector, with companies like Meta investing billions in data centers and OpenAI launching a general AI agent in ChatGPT [1] Group 2 - The announcement of the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower super project is seen as a positive development for the hydropower sector [2] - The civil explosives industry is expected to see a significant increase in concentration, with production value projected to grow from 27.3 billion yuan in 2015 to 41.7 billion yuan in 2024, averaging a 5% annual growth [2] - The domestic market indices, driven by heavyweight stocks, returned to the 3,500-point mark, with the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices nearing previous highs, indicating potential short-term technical adjustments [2]