以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者宏观团队 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 4 . 1 2 - 4 . 1 8 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、 深度专题 | "高估"的关税冲击？ 热点思考 1、 热点思考 | 关税的"经济"冲击：GTAP模型测算——关税"压力测试"系列之二 2、 热点思考 | "稳就业"的核心抓手？ 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、 "周见"系列会议第27期 《关税"压力测试" 》 2、 "洞见"系列会议第54期 热点思考 2025.4.13 从特朗普2.0的现实约束和美国历史上七次"贸易战"的经验看，后续将如何演绎？ 《"高估"的关税冲击？—"反脆弱"系列专题之四 》 深度专题 深度专题 2025.4.12 当关税战演变成"数字游戏"，对经济层面的影响如何评估？哪些领域，可能"高估"了关税冲击？ 1 深度专题 | "高估"的关税冲击？ 1、 海外高频 | 美国"股债汇"三杀，黄金再创新高 2、 政策跟踪 | 根据形势需要及时推出新的增量政策 3、 短贷高增VS财政托举——3月金融数据点评 4、 为何3月出口大幅反弹？ ...

国务院总理李强4月18日主持召开国务院常务会议，研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干 举措，听取"3·15"晚会曝光问题处置情况汇报，讨论《中华人民共和国社会救助法（草 案）》，审议通过《中华人民共和国植物新品种保护条例（修订草案）》。 会议指出，面对复杂严峻的外部环境，要深入贯彻中央经济工作会议部署，加力落实《政府工 作报告》明确的政策措施，锚定经济社会发展目标，加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外 贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优结构提质量，做强国内大循环，推动经济高质量发展。要鼓励 企业积极稳定就业，加大职业技能培训力度，扩大以工代赈等支持，加强就业公共服务。要稳 定外贸外资发展，一业一策、一企一策加大支持力度，支持外资企业境内再投资。要促进养 老、生育、文化、旅游等服务消费， 扩大有效投资，大力提振民间投资积极性。 要持续稳定 股市 ，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。 相关举措一旦推出，要直达企业和群众，提高落 地效率，确保实施效果。 会议指出，"3·15"晚会曝光问题处置工作已取得阶段性进展，要坚持举一反三、标本兼治， 强化日常监管和预防工作，聚焦民生关切强化质量安全监管，进一步压紧压实全链条监管责 任， ...

宏观深度报告 20250419 贸易摩擦如何影响我国就业？政策如何应 对？ [Table_Summary] ◼ 贸易摩擦或对我国就业市场造成扰动 ◼ 出口就业人数的两种定量测算 ◼ 对等关税对就业影响的估算 2025 年 04 月 19 日 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《中国科技产业为全球资产注入稳定 性》 2025-04-14 《美债抛售潮的原因：去美元化、流 动性冲击与中期财政扩张》 2025-04-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数。关税冲击主要是制造业出口，制造业 有更多的资本和技术投入作为劳动要素的代替，因此每百万元增加值吸 纳的就业只有 4.7 人。相比之下，建筑业和部分服务业吸纳就业的能力 更强。每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数较多的行 ...

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the construction of a community of shared destiny with neighboring countries, focusing on strategic mutual trust, regional stability, and deepening development integration [2] - The government aims to enhance domestic circulation, expand domestic demand as a long-term strategy, and support employment and income growth [3][4] - The government plans to implement proactive macro policies and timely introduce new incremental policies based on changing economic conditions [3][4] Group 2 - China has announced a series of tariff countermeasures against the U.S., increasing tariffs on all imported goods from the U.S. to 125% [6][7] - The Ministry of Commerce has placed several U.S. entities on export control lists, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [6][7] - The government is taking measures to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including adjustments in financial regulations and support for state-owned enterprises [8][10] Group 3 - The State Council has issued a plan to accelerate the construction of an agricultural power by 2035, focusing on rural revitalization and agricultural modernization [12][13] - The plan includes promoting the integration of rural industries and enhancing the competitiveness of agricultural products [12][13] Group 4 - The government has issued guidelines to improve the employment service system for college graduates, emphasizing the need for alignment between education and labor market demands [14][15] - The focus is on optimizing the supply of education and enhancing career guidance to facilitate high-quality employment for graduates [14][15] Group 5 - Employment pressure is rising due to structural unemployment caused by industry adjustments and trade frictions, particularly affecting low-education groups [18][19] - New job opportunities are emerging in the service sector, driven by new demands and technologies, with a notable increase in flexible employment [20][21] - The government is encouraged to support the service sector and flexible employment to alleviate unemployment pressures [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing pressure on youth employment and the need for enhanced employment stabilization policies in response to rising unemployment insurance expenditures [1][6][8]. Group 1: Causes of Employment Pressure - Structural unemployment is primarily driven by industrial restructuring and potential frictional unemployment due to tariffs. The proportion of unemployed individuals with junior high school education remains around 35%, while the share of college graduates and postgraduates has been increasing, reaching 15.5% and 2.2% respectively by 2022 [2][12][72]. - The overlap between low-education groups and migrant workers is significant, with both groups transitioning from manufacturing and construction to the tertiary sector. In 2022, 37.9% of unemployed individuals previously worked as production equipment operators, an increase of 7.5 percentage points since 2018 [17][72]. - Trade friction poses a risk to employment stability, particularly in industries with high reliance on imports from the U.S., such as computer communication and electrical machinery, where the average employment share exceeds 15% [3][30][78]. Group 2: Employment Opportunities - New demands and technologies are creating new job opportunities, particularly in social and life services. By 2023, employment in the tertiary sector increased by 2.8 percentage points compared to 2018, reaching 33.8% [4][40][79]. - Flexible employment roles, such as ride-hailing drivers and delivery personnel, are rapidly increasing, with the number of professional streamers projected to grow by 157% in 2024. This growth is attributed to lower educational requirements and experience needed for these positions [46][79]. - High-education groups face challenges as traditional industries contract while new technology sectors expand. From 2019 to 2023, employment in new technology sectors like electronic devices and electrical machinery grew at average rates of 9%, 8%, and 8%, while traditional sectors like oil and gas extraction saw declines of -5%, -3%, and -2% [52][53][79]. Group 3: Core Strategies for Employment Stabilization - The focus for stabilizing employment should be on enhancing support for the service sector while addressing skill mismatches in the labor market. Recent policies, such as paid internships for graduates, aim to bridge the gap between education and job market needs [5][57][80]. - Developing the service sector is crucial for alleviating employment pressure on low-education and migrant worker groups, as industries like accommodation and retail generate more jobs per unit of added value [60][67][80]. - Small and micro enterprises, representing a significant portion of the economy, require more fiscal and financial policy support to stimulate market demand and reduce operational costs. Recent surveys indicate that 47.4% of small business owners seek cost reduction measures, while 40.6% require financial support [67][80].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition from stabilizing the market to stabilizing the economy, highlighting the need for timely policy implementation to mitigate economic downward pressure and avoid secondary risks [1]. Group 1: Economic Stabilization Strategies - The article suggests that the government has sufficient policy tools to stabilize the economy, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand as a key component of economic recovery [1][4]. - It discusses the importance of "internal circulation" in the context of increasing external uncertainties, indicating that investment in human resources is becoming increasingly significant [1]. - The article outlines two main directions for policy efforts: enhancing existing policies and exploring potential in service consumption sectors, particularly in education, culture, and entertainment [4]. Group 2: Employment and External Risks - The article highlights the critical importance of employment stability, especially in light of U.S.-China trade tensions, which have increased the risks associated with employment in industries with high foreign trade dependence [7]. - It notes that the manufacturing sector has a foreign trade dependence exceeding 13%, indicating that export downturns could exacerbate operational pressures on companies and affect hiring needs [8]. - The article mentions that the government aims to introduce incremental policies to stabilize employment and increase income, with a focus on timely implementation [7][8]. Group 3: Policy Support and Economic Impact - The article estimates that the U.S. tariffs on China could reduce revenue for large industrial enterprises by approximately 1.4 percentage points, with a potential loss of over 2 million jobs in the application sector [8]. - It suggests that the government may increase support for key industries, particularly high-tech manufacturing sectors such as computers, electrical machinery, and automotive [9]. - The potential incremental policies could include measures like re-loans, fiscal subsidies, and tax reductions, with an estimated support of no less than 1.2 trillion yuan for affected industries [11].

人力资源社会保障部近日下发关于进一步加大金融助企稳岗扩岗力度的通知，在原有小微企业基础 上，将小微企业主、个体工商户等个人纳入稳岗扩岗专项贷款支持范围； 同时提高授信额度，将小微 企业最高授信由3000万元提高至5000万元，对个人最高授信1000万元。 近年来，人力资源社会保障部会同中国银行分支机构实施稳岗扩岗专项贷款，已取得良好效果。为更好发 挥金融对稳就业、扩就业的支持与引导作用，人力资源社会保障部下发此次通知，进一步加大金融助企稳 岗扩岗力度。 通知降低了稳岗扩岗专项贷款申请门槛，将贷款申请条件由用工人数不减少，放宽到用工人数减少水平低 于上年度城镇调查失业率控制目标；降低了利率水平，明确贷款利率最高不超过4%，最低可至2.9%。此 外，通知提出探索通过"创业担保贷款+稳岗扩岗专项贷款"合并办理的组合贷款方式，进一步提升贷款便 利度。 截至2024年9月底，全国登记在册个体工商户达1.25亿户。专家表示，人力资源社会保障部的相关举措， 将帮助更多小微企业降低成本、减轻经营负担，推动培育更多创业企业、个体工商户等经营主体，从而更 好带动就业。 通知还要求各地人社部门持续深化政银合作，积极拓展稳岗扩岗专项 ...