Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a probability of 89.6% according to market data [1][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Alberto G. Musalem, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, indicated that the U.S. labor market faces increasing downside risks, particularly due to a weak real estate market [3]. - Musalem noted that the current policy interest rate is moderately restrictive and is consistent with a fully employed labor market, being nearly one percentage point above the Fed's 2% inflation target [3]. - He anticipates a gradual cooling of the labor market while remaining close to full employment, with recent data increasing concerns about labor market downside risks [3]. - Musalem expects tariffs to impact the economy over the next two to three quarters, after which their effect on inflation will diminish, predicting inflation will converge towards 2% by the second half of 2026 [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Cut Expectations - Christopher J. Waller, a Federal Reserve Governor, expressed support for a rate cut at the next meeting, suggesting multiple cuts may follow depending on economic data [5]. - Waller emphasized that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has stabilized and reiterated the need for flexibility in the pace of rate cuts based on economic performance [5]. - He projected that inflation may experience slight fluctuations but will not be persistent, expecting it to approach the 2% long-term target within six months [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Market consensus indicates a strong likelihood of a rate cut in September, with discussions shifting towards the number of potential cuts thereafter [9]. - HSBC's Chief Asia Economist, Fan Limin, predicts a 25 basis point cut in September but cautions that strong employment data could delay this decision [9]. - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economic Strategist, Ellen Zentner, noted that the Fed is open to rate cuts, with the extent depending on whether labor market weakness poses a greater risk than rising inflation [9].

Group 1 - The current interest rate level is deemed suitable for the economic environment, aligning with a fully employed labor market and core inflation rates approximately one percentage point above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] - A balanced approach in policy-making is emphasized, avoiding excessive bias towards either supporting the labor market or combating inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates this year to observe the impact of policy changes, including tariffs, on inflation [1] Group 2 - The slowdown in corporate hiring is attributed to both reduced demand and decreased labor supply due to immigration restrictions [2] - Economic growth has slowed this year, leading to uncertainty in policies that cause businesses and households to cut spending [2] - Inflation remains closer to 3% rather than the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with tariffs expected to gradually affect the economy over the next two to three quarters [2]

Group 1 - Over 1.2 million immigrants have left the U.S. labor market from January to July this year, influenced by the Trump administration's immigration policies [1][3] - Immigrants account for approximately 20% of the U.S. labor force, with significant contributions in agriculture (45%), construction (30%), and service industries (24%) [3] - Immigration enforcement actions have led to disruptions in various sectors, particularly agriculture, resulting in delayed harvests and wasted crops [3][5] Group 2 - The construction industry has seen job losses in nearly half of major metropolitan areas, with the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area losing 7,200 jobs and the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area losing 6,200 jobs [5] - The healthcare sector may also face challenges due to a reduction in immigrant workers, as approximately 43% of home healthcare workers are immigrants [5][6] - The impact of immigration enforcement on labor supply has hindered construction contractors from hiring capable workers, affecting overall job creation [5]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets experienced a "risk off" attitude, with the Dow closing at -0.55%, S&P 500 at -0.69%, and Nasdaq at -0.60% [1] - Goldman Sachs was the worst performer on the Dow, down -1.9%, while Kraft Heinz fell -7%, the largest drop in the S&P 500 [2] Commodity Performance - Gold prices reached a new all-time high, increasing by +2.35% to just below $3600 per ounce [2] - Bitcoin also saw growth, rising +1.88% to $111,313 [2] Company Earnings - Zscaler reported fiscal Q4 results, with earnings of 89 cents per share, beating estimates by 9 cents, and quarterly sales of $719 million, surpassing expectations of $706 million [3] - Zscaler's billings were notably higher than expected, and guidance for the next quarter and full fiscal year was raised, leading to a +5% increase in shares during late trading [3] Economic Indicators - S&P Manufacturing PMI for August was slightly below expectations at +53.0, down -30 basis points from the previous month, while ISM Manufacturing improved to +48.7%, 70 basis points above the prior month [4] - Construction spending for July showed a slight improvement, moving from -0.4% in June to -0.1%, although it remains below expectations [5] Upcoming Reports - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for July is expected to remain stable at 7.4 million job openings, consistent with the current labor market trends [6] - Factory Orders for July are anticipated to improve to -1.3% from -4.8% in June, with additional reports on the Beige Book and August Auto Sales expected [7] - Salesforce is expected to report quarterly earnings with +8.2% growth in earnings per share and +8.7% in revenues, having only missed earnings once in the past five years [8]

Group 1 - Over 1.2 million immigrants have left the U.S. labor market from January to July this year, influenced by the Trump administration's immigration policies [1] - Immigrants account for approximately 20% of the U.S. labor force, with significant contributions in agriculture (45%), construction (30%), and services (24%) [2] - Immigration enforcement actions have disrupted many farms and businesses, leading to delays in crop harvesting and waste of produce [2] Group 2 - The construction industry has seen job losses in nearly half of U.S. metropolitan areas, with the most severe losses in Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario (7,200 jobs) and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale (6,200 jobs) [4] - The healthcare sector may also be impacted, as about 43% of home care workers are immigrants, raising concerns about staffing shortages in hospitals and nursing homes [4]

Core Insights - The analysis by the Pew Research Center indicates that over 1.2 million immigrants have left the U.S. labor market from January to July this year, influenced by the immigration policies of the Trump administration [1][3] - Immigrants constitute approximately 20% of the U.S. labor force, with significant contributions in agriculture (45%), construction (30%), and services (24%) [3][4] Labor Market Impact - The cessation of large-scale immigration has had a "huge impact" on job creation capabilities in the U.S., with immigrants typically contributing to at least 50% of employment growth [4] - Enforcement actions against immigrants have led to disruptions in various sectors, particularly agriculture and construction, causing delays in crop harvesting and job losses [4][7] Sector-Specific Effects - The construction industry has seen job losses in nearly half of U.S. metropolitan areas, with the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area losing 7,200 jobs and the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area losing 6,200 jobs [7] - The healthcare sector is also likely to be affected, as approximately 43% of home care workers are immigrants, raising concerns about staffing shortages in hospitals and nursing homes [7]

Core Viewpoint - September historically shows a decline in the S&P 500 index, averaging nearly 2% over the past decade, with current uncertainties such as potential Fed rate cuts and political pressures adding to market volatility [1][3]. Market Performance - September is noted as the most volatile month for U.S. markets, with a 56% probability of decline in the S&P 500 index since 1927, averaging a drop of 1.17%. In the last decade, the average decline has worsened to 1.93% [3]. - In the first year of a presidential term, the S&P 500 index has a 58% chance of declining in September, with an average drop of 1.62% [3]. Valuation and Investment Trends - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index has reached 22 times, nearing levels seen at the end of the internet bubble, raising concerns about potential sell-off pressures during portfolio rebalancing at the end of September [4]. - Recent market shifts show cyclical sectors and small-cap stocks leading gains, while large tech stocks lagged behind. Non-essential consumer goods ETFs rose by 4.3%, financial sector ETFs by 2.6%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index increased by 7.3% [4]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data presents a mixed picture, with significant drops in non-farm payrolls from May to July, while retail sales and major retailers' earnings indicate strong consumer spending [4]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 75,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.3% [7]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Fed is anticipated to consider rate cuts due to recent employment data, with Chairman Powell indicating a shift in stance towards a more accommodative policy [7][9]. - Market expectations for rate cuts have fluctuated, with the probability of more than two cuts this year dropping from over 50% to below 30% [9]. Political Pressures - Concerns arise regarding the Fed's independence amid political pressures from the Trump administration, particularly regarding the potential influence over the Fed's board composition [9].

Group 1 - The price of physical gold from Mingpai Jewelry remains unchanged at 1009 yuan per gram as of August 29, 2025, compared to the previous trading day [1] - The platinum price is not provided in the report, indicating a focus solely on gold pricing [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve's Waller indicates that the underlying inflation rate is close to 2% when excluding temporary tariff impacts [2] - The policy interest rate is considered "moderately restrictive," expected to be 1.25 to 1.50 percentage points above the neutral rate [2] - There is no expectation for a significant rate cut in September unless the August employment report shows substantial economic weakness while inflation remains well-controlled [2] - Waller expresses a stronger inclination towards a 25 basis point rate cut in September and anticipates further cuts in the next 3-6 months [2] - There is a noted weakening in labor demand, which poses risks to the labor market [2]

近日，美联储理事沃勒就货币政策走向发表重要观点，预计联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将在9月降息25个基 点，且未来3 - 6个月还将继续推进降息进程，这一表态为市场对美联储货币政策的预期提供了关键指引。 沃勒指出，当前支持美联储降息的依据相较于7月份更为充分和强烈。近期，劳动力市场状况成为美联储决策的重 要考量因素。沃勒强调，供给侧的变化并非是出现不佳就业数据的原因，同时他认为关注就业数据的质量以及收 集方式十分必要。目前，劳动力市场面临的下行风险显著加重，这一态势使得美联储在货币政策调整上需更加谨 慎且灵活。 对于即将到来的下一份非农就业报告，沃勒表示其可能会改变自己对于9月潜在降息幅度的看法。不过，就现阶段 情况而言，他认为9月份降息幅度可能无需超过25个基点。这一观点既体现了美联储对经济数据的敏感性，也显示 出其在货币政策调整上的稳健态度，避免因过度降息引发市场波动或其他潜在风险。 在货币政策整体态势方面，沃勒称美联储货币政策具有"适度的限制性"。这意味着当前货币政策既在一定程度上 对经济活动起到约束作用，以防止经济过热和通胀失控，又未过度紧缩而阻碍经济的正常增长。这种"适度限制 性"的货币政策定位，旨 ...

Group 1 - Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, advocates for an immediate interest rate cut of 25 basis points at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17, and anticipates further cuts in the next three to six months [1][2] - Waller believes that the potential inflation rate in the U.S. is nearing the Fed's long-term target of 2%, and that the labor market may show signs of weakness, warranting a risk management approach that includes an immediate rate cut [1][2] - Waller's stance reflects a growing divergence among Fed officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, as he suggests that the Fed should "ignore" these effects, viewing them as temporary [2] Group 2 - Waller's support for a rate cut aligns with his potential candidacy for the next Fed chair, as he has consistently expressed concerns about high rates in an economy lacking inflationary pressure [2][3] - The recent dissent among Fed governors regarding interest rate decisions is notable, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple governors have opposed a rate decision, indicating a fracture in consensus on economic and inflation impacts [2] - Economic advisor Stephen Miran has praised Waller's performance at the Fed, highlighting his impressive predictions on inflation and policy recommendations [3]