投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期继续降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。目前国债期货的上行和下行动能均较为有限。一方面，国 债到期收益率目前隐含的降息预期接近零，政策利率具有较强的锚定效果，市场利率 ...

新华财经上海5月21日电（张天源） 5月21日，国债期货行情一改自4月初以来的"长强短弱"态势，中短期主力合约整体走强，2年期主力合约涨0.02%报 102.38元。多家机构观点认为，在基差已经明显收敛的情况下，短端现券和2年期国债期货（TS）合约或出现博弈机会。 4月初以来，国债期货走势持续分化，超长期30年国债期货表现较为强势，而其他期限主力合约则出现不同程度的震荡行情，其中2年期国债期货跌势尤为明 显。 对此，徽商期货表示，此前一段时间，国债期货先扬后抑，长短端表现略有不同，超长端呈现整体上涨格局，短端略有下跌。驱动因素在于在美"对等关 税"政策影响下市场避险情绪抬升，央行公开市场超额续作MLF释放流动性宽松预期和利率债供给压力释放形成博弈，因长端受益于未来的出口走弱预期， 表现更为强势。 就2年期国债期货的交易情况而言，上周该品种旗下的两大重点合约TS2509和TS2506曾出现同品种合约走势分化的罕见情况。这使得交易商无论选择做陡曲 线还是做平曲线，最终都有可能出现亏损。受此影响，2年期国债期货的近期成交量显著低于其他各期限品种。 在此背景下，2年期国债期货反弹行情值得关注。5月21日，国债期货收盘 ...

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.02%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约跌0.01%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约跌0.08%。 国债期货早盘收盘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期继续降息可能性较低 | 观点参考 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均高开低走，全天震荡整理。消息面，LPR 报价调降 10BP，符合市场预期， 因为 ...

国债期货日报 2025/5/20 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是 否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发 布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修 改。 端本期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 46276 | 108.565 | -0.01% T主力成交量 | | 16206↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 30595 | 105.705 | -0.03% TF主力成交量 | | 6415↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.248 | -0.02% TS主力成交量 | 17711 | -7231↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 119.260 | -0. ...

根据交易所数据，截至5月20日收盘主力合约5年期国债期货2509,涨跌-0.04%,成交量5.78万手，持仓数 据显示前20席位呈现净空，差额头寸为4905手。5年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交8.96万手，比上一 日减少4901手。全合约前20席位多头持仓13.75万手，比上一日增加1705手。全合约前20席位空头持仓 14.81万手，比上一日减少2079手。 （新浪期货） ...

【股指期货周一表现各异，后市操作思路需转变】周一沪指低开回升，震荡收平，量能环比持平。轮动 较快，热点持续性有限，并购重组概念活跃，ST 股等有重组预期集体涨停，带动微盘股指数新高，近 百股涨停，全市场无跌停板。上周领涨的大金融回调，银行板块领跌，保险非银熄火。后市缺少主线， 结合期权市场指标，整体思路应从持仓待涨转向逢高止盈，操作上考虑安全垫策略，暂且半仓持有 IM，考虑吃贴水收敛。【股指期权昨日市场稳定，策略以备兑防御为主】昨日权益市场震荡，沪指上 周三突破 3400 点后走势缓慢回落。期权市场成交额 40.35 亿元较上周五窄幅提升，各品种持仓量 PCR 涨跌互现，整体流动性和 PCR 波动幅度有限，交易情绪稳定。期权隐含波动率方面，各品种平值隐波 均下行，策略建议备兑防御为主。【国债期货昨日全线上涨，后续走势或受多因素影响】昨日国债期货 收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.37%，10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%，5 年期主力合约涨 0.04%，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.02%。央行公开市场操作净投放 920 亿元，资金利率多数下行，资金面边际转松。4 月 多项数据发布，固定资产投资和社零同比增速 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After the temporary agreement was reached in the China-US trade talks in Geneva and the tariffs were significantly reduced, the market's risk appetite increased significantly, and the risk aversion sentiment declined, leading to a full - scale decline in treasury bonds and treasury bond futures. Investors expect that the easing of China - US relations will help stabilize the global economy, reducing the urgency for loose monetary policies. Coupled with the strong rebound of the US stocks and the pressure of capital outflows from the bond market, the yield of spot bonds increased and the price of futures bonds decreased. Overall, the short - term pressure on the bond market mainly reflects the phased convergence of macro - risk premiums [1][2] - The repurchase rate has rebounded, and the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates. The 2506 contract is neutral. Pay attention to the widening of the basis. There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.10% year - on - year decrease; China's monthly PPI had a - 0.40% month - on - month decrease and a - 2.70% year - on - year decrease [8] - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 424.00 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.25%; M2 year - on - year was 8.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.00% and a growth rate of 14.29%; the manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.50% and a decline rate of 2.97% [8] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 100.35, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.61 and a decline rate of - 0.60%; the offshore US dollar against the RMB was 7.2163, with a month - on - month increase of 0.020 and a growth rate of 0.27%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.56, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.10%; DR007 was 1.60, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 and a decline rate of - 2.20%; R007 was 1.76, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 and a decline rate of - 10.82%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.64, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.00%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.13, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.00% [9] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On May 19, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.38 yuan, 106.00 yuan, 108.83 yuan, and 119.72 yuan respectively, with the corresponding price changes of 0.02%, 0.10%, 0.18%, and 0.42%. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.056 yuan, - 0.088 yuan, - 0.161 yuan, and - 0.055 yuan respectively [2] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - On May 19, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 135 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.537%, 1.562%, 1.654%, and 1.624% respectively, and the repurchase rates have rebounded recently [1] 4. Spread Overview - The report presents various spread trends, including the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [41][45] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, as well as the relationship between the TS main contract IRR and the funding rate, and the basis trends of the TS main contract in the past three years [48][50][61] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the relationship between the TF main contract IRR and the funding rate, and the basis trends of the TF main contract in the past three years [57][60][63] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the relationship between the T main contract IRR and the funding rate, and the basis trends of the T main contract in the past three years [66][69] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the relationship between the TL main contract IRR and the funding rate, and the basis trends of the TL main contract in the past three years [74][78][80]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury futures contract has turned down by 0.02% after initially rising over 0.20% at the beginning of the trading session [1] Group 1 - The 10-year Treasury futures contract increased by 0.03% [1] - The 5-year Treasury futures contract remained unchanged [1] - The 2-year Treasury futures contract also remained unchanged [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term trends of TL2506 are both oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and weak, with an overall view of range oscillation. The core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and the short - term is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range oscillation. The core logic is that although the upward and downward space of treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, the upward momentum is insufficient due to factors such as the weak credit demand of enterprises and residents in April and the low possibility of immediate interest rate cuts, so it is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2506, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and weak, with an overall view of range oscillation. The core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and the short - term is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range oscillation. The core logic is that the upward space of market interest rates is limited due to the anchoring effect of policy rates, so the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited. However, due to factors such as the weakening of external risks, the need to verify the policy effects of internal economic indicators, and the weak credit demand of enterprises and residents in April, the possibility of immediate interest rate cuts is low, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. Overall, the upward and downward space of treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and it is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [4].