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美联储戴利:劳动力市场正在降温,经济增长趋于温和,但数据尚未出现实质性疲软。
news flash· 2025-07-10 18:41
Core Insights - The labor market is cooling down, indicating a shift in economic conditions [1] - Economic growth is trending towards moderation, suggesting a more stable economic environment [1] - However, there has not been any substantial evidence of economic weakness in the data [1] Labor Market - The cooling of the labor market suggests a potential easing of inflationary pressures [1] - This shift may impact wage growth and employment rates in the near future [1] Economic Growth - The moderation in economic growth reflects a balanced approach to recovery post-pandemic [1] - The current economic indicators show stability rather than volatility [1] Data Analysis - Despite the cooling labor market and moderate growth, the data does not indicate any significant downturn [1] - Continuous monitoring of economic indicators will be essential to assess future trends [1]
美联储戴利:经济状况良好,增长和就业稳健,通胀压力正在缓解。
news flash· 2025-07-10 18:37
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicates that the economic conditions are strong, with robust growth and employment, while inflationary pressures are easing [1] Economic Conditions - Economic growth is described as steady, suggesting a positive outlook for various sectors [1] - Employment levels are reported to be stable, indicating a healthy job market [1] Inflation Trends - Inflationary pressures are noted to be alleviating, which could impact monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]
筑牢经济韧性底座 多维施策稳增长谋长远
Economic Overview - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year is stable, supported by strong external demand and improving internal demand, with GDP growth expected to exceed 5% [2][3] - The first quarter saw a GDP growth rate of 5.4%, and the positive trend continued into the second quarter [2][3] - Key drivers of economic growth include the "old-for-new" consumption policy, large-scale equipment updates, and robust infrastructure investment [3][4] Consumption and Investment - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption, with retail sales of consumer goods growing by 5% year-on-year from January to May [4][5] - Fixed asset investment increased by 3.7% during the same period, driven by strong service sector investment and equipment upgrades [4][6] - Exports grew by 6% from January to May, supported by "grabbing exports" and "turning exports" strategies [4][6] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Monetary policy remained flexible and moderately loose, with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio in May, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [7][8] - Fiscal policy showed a high intensity and rapid pace, with government debt net financing increasing by 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year from January to May [9][10] - The issuance of special bonds and ultra-long-term treasury bonds accelerated, with nearly 2.2 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued by the end of June [9][10] Future Outlook - In the second half of the year, there is still room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to lower financing costs for the real economy [16][20] - New policy financial tools are expected to be introduced in the third quarter, focusing on technology innovation and digital economy sectors [16][17] - The government plans to dynamically adjust budgets and expand fiscal spending to counter global trade uncertainties and support employment [17][20]
美国圣路易联储主席Musalem:经济处于良好状态,或接近充分就业。通胀存在一些上行风险。货币政策略带限制性。金融环境支持经济增长。关税将导致通胀上升。关税可能会对价格产生暂时或持续的影响。高利润率为吸收关税提供了一些空间。
news flash· 2025-07-10 14:10
金融环境支持经济增长。 关税将导致通胀上升。 关税可能会对价格产生暂时或持续的影响。 美国圣路易联储主席Musalem:经济处于良好状态,或接近充分就业。 通胀存在一些上行风险。 货币政策略带限制性。 高利润率为吸收关税提供了一些空间。 ...
美联储穆萨莱姆:货币政策适度限制。金融环境有利于经济增长。
news flash· 2025-07-10 14:10
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Musalem indicates that monetary policy is moderately restrictive, but the financial environment remains conducive to economic growth [1] Group 1 - The current monetary policy is described as moderately restrictive, suggesting a balanced approach to managing inflation and supporting growth [1] - The financial environment is characterized as favorable for economic growth, indicating that despite the restrictive policy, conditions are still supportive for expansion [1]
财政政策前置加码 助力经济实现“开门红” | 宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-07-10 10:35
Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy for 2025 is characterized by increased counter-cyclical adjustments, significant enhancement in fiscal spending, and proactive policy implementation, which is expected to support China's economic growth target of around 5% [2][3][5]. Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 has historically exceeded 4%, with a total fiscal deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from 2024 [5][6]. - The issuance of special bonds has been raised to 4.4 trillion yuan, with an increase of 500 billion yuan compared to 2024, aimed at addressing local government debt and stimulating investment [4][6]. Economic Context - The global economic recovery remains weak, and external pressures such as tariffs and trade disturbances from the U.S. are affecting demand. The internal demand is also struggling to recover fully, necessitating a robust fiscal response [3][4]. - The central economic work conference at the end of 2024 emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to ensure sustained economic growth amidst these challenges [3]. Budgetary Allocations - The budget growth rates for general public revenue and expenditure in 2025 are projected at 0.1% and 4.4%, respectively, reflecting ongoing fiscal pressures and the need to expand domestic demand [5]. - Expenditure on health, education, and social security has increased, with a total share of 37.1% in the budget, indicating a focus on social welfare [5]. Special Bonds and Debt Management - The issuance of ultra-long special bonds has increased to 1.3 trillion yuan, with allocations for major national strategies and consumer goods replacement programs, enhancing both short-term demand and long-term sustainability [6]. - The new special bond issuance allows for the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing projects and debt management, which helps alleviate liquidity pressures on real estate companies and supports small businesses [6].
惠誉上调摩洛哥2025年经济增长预期
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-07-10 02:59
Economic Growth Outlook - Morocco's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 4.3% to 4.5% by Fitch, driven by strong investment, recovering consumer markets, and improving foreign trade conditions [1][2] Investment Dynamics - Productive investment is the main driver of the current economic recovery, with total capital formation in Q1 showing a significant year-on-year increase of 17.5%, marking a post-pandemic high [1] - The Moroccan central bank has cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points, with expectations for further reductions, facilitating credit expansion across various sectors, including consumer loans [1] Infrastructure and Major Events - Preparations for major international events such as the 2025-2026 Africa Cup of Nations and the 2030 World Cup are underway, leading to increased investments in infrastructure, transportation, and hospitality [1] - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to reach 7.9% in 2025, with a slight decline to 5.9% in 2026, still significantly above historical averages [1] Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer spending is showing signs of recovery, driven by low inflation, agricultural recovery boosting farmer incomes, rapid tourism growth, and declining financing costs [2] - Private consumption growth is projected to reach 4.5% in 2025, with continued positive momentum expected in 2026 [2] Inflation and Trade Balance - Inflation expectations for 2025 have been revised down from 1.1% to 0.7%, benefiting from stable energy prices, a weaker dollar, and improved domestic food supply [2] - The trade deficit is expected to improve in 2025 due to reduced agricultural import demand and a recovering European market, supported by Morocco's deep integration with European supply chains [2]
韩国央行行长李昌镛:韩国央行将在评估相关数据后,决定优先关注经济增长还是金融稳定。
news flash· 2025-07-10 02:58
Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Korea, Lee Chang-yong, stated that the central bank will decide whether to prioritize economic growth or financial stability after assessing relevant data [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Korea is currently evaluating data to determine its focus between economic growth and financial stability [1]
君諾外匯:马来西亚央行暂时不太可能进一步降息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 02:39
作为资深外汇分析师,Chan 深入剖析了马来西亚央行此次降息的核心动因 —— 很可能是为了应对日益加 剧的关税风险。在全球贸易保护主义抬头的背景下,马来西亚作为外向型经济体,其出口产业极易受到关 税政策冲击。关税的提高会直接削弱马来西亚商品在国际市场的价格竞争力,导致出口下滑、经济增长承 压。央行选择在此时降息,显然是希望通过降低企业融资成本、刺激国内需求,来对冲关税风险对经济的 负面影响,为经济增长注入缓冲垫。 Juno markets发现三菱日联银行的 Lloyd Chan 在最新发布的研报中,对马来西亚央行的货币政策走向给出 了明确判断:在周三实施降息后,该国央行短期内大概率不会进一步下调政策利率。这一观点为市场理解 马来西亚的货币政策逻辑提供了重要参考,也折射出当前东南亚经济体在复杂全球环境中的政策权衡。 从宏观经济韧性来看,马来西亚近年来在产业升级、基础设施建设等方面的投入逐步显现成效,经济结构 更趋多元化,对单一出口产业的依赖度有所降低。这使得该国在面对外部冲击时,具备更强的抗风险能 力。即使关税政策引发短期出口波动,国内经济的内生增长动力也能在一定程度上抵消负面影响,为货币 稳定提供基本面支撑。 ...
韩国央行行长李昌镛:第二轮追加预算将使经济增长提高0.1个百分点。
news flash· 2025-07-10 02:29
韩国央行行长李昌镛:第二轮追加预算将使经济增长提高0.1个百分点。 ...