据媒体报道，特朗普政府取消了原定于周三美联储主席候选人终选名单面试。在美国总统此前一天发出 重要信号后，现任白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）已经成为了新任美联储主席的最大 热门，他也将成为特朗普"改组"美联储的关键人物，然而摆在其面前的挑战随着宏观经济形势走向不确 定性依然艰巨。 大局已定？ 截至12月3日，根据 Kalshi 预测市场数据，哈塞特出任下任美联储主席的概率超过80%。 鲍威尔的决定 如果哈塞特成为美联储新任主席，他将承担起特朗普改组美联储的重任。 除了鲍威尔以外，目前美联储理事会三名成员由前总统拜登任命，剩余三名则由特朗普任命。其中最新 任命的成员是米兰（Stephen Miran）。若鲍威尔在领导任期结束后未辞去理事职务，或特朗普未能成 功罢免拜登任命的美联储理事库克（Lisa Cook），那么米兰将不得不辞职，为新美联储主席候选人腾 出职位。 前美联储理事沃尔什（Kevin Warsh）是哈塞特角逐美联储主席职位的主要竞争对手，他曾公开批评美 联储当前的架构体系。即便未能出任主席，市场观察人士仍预计他有望加入美联储理事会，助力推动美 联储在经济增长与通胀调控思路上 ...

（原标题：经合组织报告称哥伦比亚经济将保持温和增长） 据哥伦比亚Valora Analitik网站12月2日报道，经济合作与发展组织在最新发布的报告中指出，哥经 济将在未来几年保持温和扩张。2025 年国内生产总值预计增长 2.8%，2026 年持平为 2.8%，并在 2027 年小幅加快至 2.9%。通胀回落、劳动力市场稳健以及海外侨汇增长，将继续支撑私人消费。在金融条 件改善的带动下，投资也将进入逐步但有限的复苏轨道。在货币政策方面，报告预测哥央行将维持相对 紧缩的立场，以确保通胀回到目标区间。但通胀仍将高于 3% 的目标水平，预计 2025 年全年平均通胀 为 5.1%，2026 年为 4.6%，2027 年为 3.8%。报告还表示，由于 2026 年底的利率水平仍处于偏高区间， 哥在 2027 年能够进一步宽松货币政策的空间有限。在财政领域，由于财政规则仍处于暂停状态，哥财 政赤字将继续维持高位：预计 2025 年赤字为 占 GDP 的 7.1%，2026 年为 6.2%，2027 年为 4.9%。 ...

Labor Market Concerns - There is a growing concern regarding the labor market, with indications that the layoff rate is beginning to pick up, despite previous stability in hiring and firing rates [2][3] - Upcoming reports are anticipated to confirm whether the tentative signals of increased layoffs are substantiated by comprehensive payroll and household survey data [3] Dollar Valuation and Economic Outlook - The US dollar is experiencing weakness due to a perception that the US economy is less exceptional than in the past, leading to a decline in its valuation [4][5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to ease policy further, which may contribute to continued dollar weakness [5][6] Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy Considerations - The BOJ is considering a potential interest rate hike in December, influenced by the US economic performance and early signs of self-sustaining wage growth in Japan [10][11][12] - There is a concern regarding excessive yen weakening, prompting potential pushback from both the administration and the BOJ [12][13] Currency Trends and Investment Opportunities - The Chinese renminbi (CNY) is expected to appreciate gradually due to improved trade relations and significant growth in Chinese exports, which are seen as undervalued [16][17] - There are positive outlooks for the Chinese domestic equity market, particularly in high-tech industries, suggesting further growth potential [18][19] - Emerging markets, particularly Brazil, present investment opportunities in equities and bond markets as rate cuts are anticipated [21]

近期，通胀压力一直是全球经济的关注焦点。在此背景下，美联储强调其将继续关注通胀数据以及其对 经济和消费者生活的影响。尽管当前的经济数据提供了混合的信号，但美联储明确表示对抗通胀仍是其 主要任务之一。为此，如有必要，美联储准备采取进一步行动以确保价格稳定。 此次政策决策公布后，市场反应相对平稳。投资者们对美联储的决策有所预期，并理解其在平衡经济增 长和通胀控制方面的挑战。尽管加息可能会对经济产生一定影响，但市场普遍认为这是必要的，以确保 长期的经济稳定和增长。 美联储还表示，其将继续关注全球经济形势以及国内经济的各种因素。同时，美联储也将密切监控消费 者和企业行为的变化，以及其对货币政策的反应。此外，美联储还将评估其政策决策对金融市场和信贷 条件的影响。 总的来说，美联储维持基准利率不变但暗示今年可能再次加息以对抗通胀的决策显示其在应对经济挑战 时的灵活性和决心。尽管这一决策可能对市场产生一定影响，但美联储强调其致力于维护长期的经济稳 定和增长。同时，市场对此决策的反应也相对平稳，显示出对美联储决策的信任和理解。在接下来的时 间里，我们将继续关注美联储的政策决策以及其对全球经济的影响。 【注：本文内容由人工智能 ...

Core Insights - Strong foreign direct investment is expected to enhance liquidity in the foreign exchange market and address the foreign exchange restrictions that have plagued Papua New Guinea (PNG) for over a decade [1] Economic Growth and Projections - PNG's economy has grown from 62 billion kina a decade ago to 138 billion kina today, marking a 126% increase, with 66% of this growth occurring in the past five years [1] - The possibility of achieving a 200 billion kina economy by 2030 is considered very high [1] Government Policy and Budget Forecasts - The next decade will test PNG's ability to convert resource wealth into economic growth [1] - The 2026 budget indicators include: - The last year of budget deficit is projected to be 2026 - Nominal GDP is expected to grow by 9.2%, reaching 148.4 billion kina - Fiscal revenue is estimated at 29.3 billion kina, while fiscal expenditure is projected at 30.9 billion kina - A deficit of 1.6 billion kina is anticipated, accounting for 1.1% of GDP - Public sector debt is expected to be 66.2 billion kina, representing 45.5% of GDP, down from 48.2% in 2025 - A budget surplus is expected in 2027 [1]

政府周三公布的数据显示，截至9月的三个月内，国内生产总值（GDP）环比增长0.4%，低于经济学家 预估的0.7%，也低于上一季度向上修正后的0.7%。按年增长率为2.1%，低于经济学家预估的2.2%。 澳大利亚经济上季度增速出人意料地放缓，给经济潜在实力蒙上阴影，并表明市场可能过早地对加息预 期做出了定价。 政府周三公布的数据显示，截至9月的三个月内，国内生产总值（GDP）环比增长0.4%，低于经济学家 预估的0.7%，也低于上一季度向上修正后的0.7%。按年增长率为2.1%，低于经济学家预估的2.2%。 数据公布后澳元汇率下跌，对政策敏感的3年期国债收益率也随之下滑。货币市场认为， 澳大利亚央行 在2026年底之前维持利率不变的可能性超过50%。而在此次数据公布前，市场预期在明年年底前有一次 加息。 责任编辑：王永生 澳大利亚经济上季度增速出人意料地放缓，给经济潜在实力蒙上阴影，并表明市场可能过早地对加息预 期做出了定价。 数据公布后澳元汇率下跌，对政策敏感的3年期国债收益率也随之下滑。货币市场认为， 澳大利亚央行 在2026年底之前维持利率不变的可能性超过50%。而在此次数据公布前，市场预期在明年年底前有 ...

Group 1 - Australia's GDP growth unexpectedly slowed to 0.4% for the quarter ending in September, below the expected 0.7% and the revised previous quarter's growth of 0.7% [1][3] - The annual growth rate was recorded at 2.1%, also lower than the anticipated 2.2% [1][3] Group 2 - Following the GDP data release, the Australian dollar depreciated, and the yield on three-year Australian government bonds declined [2][4] - The market now sees over a 50% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2026, contrasting with previous expectations of a rate hike by the end of next year [2][4] - The RBA anticipates that economic growth will approach a "potential" rate of nearly 2% by 2026, supported by lower borrowing costs, stable household incomes, and strong population growth, despite ongoing high inflation and a tight labor market [2][4]

近期，南非财政状况出现利好。11月，南非财政部长埃诺赫·戈东瓜纳发布中期预算报告称政府收入好 于预期。同期，标普全球评级公司二十年来首次上调南非信用评级展望，增强了外界对南非经济管理的 信心。 然而，分析人士提醒，南非经济仍处于"低增长"。当地媒体网站"ENCA"刊文指，0.5%的季度增速虽体 现经济韧性，但不足以改善就业、收入和生活水平等关键指标。南非近年来人口增长约1.1%–1.3%，持 续快于经济增速，这意味着人均收入实际下降。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 中新社约翰内斯堡12月2日电 (记者孙翔)南非统计局2日发布数据，2025年第三季度国内生产总值(GDP) 环比增长0.5%。虽低于第二季度修正后的0.9%，仍是南非连续第四个季度实现经济扩张。 统计数据显示，在生产(供给)侧十个行业中，有九个在三季度实现增长，其中采矿业和农业增速显著， 分别增长2.3%和1.1%。电力、天然气和供水行业产出下降2.5%，成为唯一拖累整体增长的板块。 南非统计局副总干事乔·德比尔(Joe de Beer)表示，本季度"增长较为广泛"，多个行业同步改善反映出经 济基础有所巩固。一个积极信号是，固定资本形成总额增长1 ...

Core Viewpoint - South Korea's economy experienced its fastest growth in nearly four years in the third quarter, driven by strong exports and improved private consumption [1][3]. Economic Growth - The preliminary statistics from the Bank of Korea indicate a quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 1.3% in Q3, surpassing previous forecasts by 0.1 percentage points [1][3]. - This growth rate is the highest since Q4 2021, when the economy grew by 1.6%, and it is an acceleration from the 0.7% growth in Q2 [1][3]. Year-on-Year Comparison - Compared to the same period last year, the economy grew by 1.8% in Q3, a significant rebound from the 0.6% growth in Q2 [2][4]. - The first quarter of this year saw an unexpected contraction of 0.2% in GDP, attributed to a domestic political crisis and increased uncertainty from U.S. tariffs, which negatively impacted consumer confidence and exports [2][4]. Government Stimulus and Future Outlook - Following government stimulus measures and strong export performance, particularly in the semiconductor sector, the South Korean economy regained momentum [5]. - The Bank of Korea has revised its economic growth forecast for this year upward by 0.1 percentage points to 1%, with an expected growth of 1.8% in 2026 [5].

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Benset stated that next year will be the year of the real economy [2][4] - Benset mentioned that a significant tax refund will be observed in the first quarter of 2026 [2][4] - He also indicated that the U.S. will experience "real wage growth" and "low-inflation growth" [2][4] - Benset predicts that the U.S. economy will recover to a growth rate of 4% by 2026 [2][4]