大纲： 大家好，又到了我们每月一次的读书课。今天给大家带来的书是《利息的故事：利率背后的金融世 界》。为什么选择这样一个专业词汇来讲？我们在投资市场中待久了，都会有一个深刻的感受：不了解 利息，就不了解经济，也不了解金融市场。利率的涨跌有时蕴含着资本市场中的密码。 举几个例子。2022年，美联储加息，直接抬升了全球利率水平，许多国家都面临大幅向上的利率，这具 有历史意义，标志着全球主要经济体基本告别了过去几十年大家已习以为常的超低利率时代。大家可以 看到，2022年以美国为代表的股票市场遭遇了深度下跌。 再看2024年，日本央行加息，利率上升，美国市场感受到了千里之外的巨大影响。全球资金开始流出美 元资产，美元大跌，美国股票市场也经历了艰难的一个月。 时间来到2025年4月，美国政府刚打出关税大棒，美国金融市场出现了巨大波动，美国国债利率大幅上 升，敲响了美元资产的警钟。这不得不让美国总统特朗普收回关税大棒，开始与其他国家握手言和。 除了这些国际例子，我们自己也能感受到利率威力（很好的晴雨表）。2024年年底，我们看到债券市场 利率步步下跌，甚至央行都要出来警示，说如果有人违规大幅配置炒作债券市场资产，可能会 ...

美国总统特朗普：不会解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，他只需将利率降低即可，我们的通胀数据表现良好。 订阅美联储动态 +订阅 订阅特朗普动态 +订阅 ...

Group 1: Inflation Overview - May CPI year-on-year growth is -0.1%, with a month-on-month decline of -0.2%[5] - May PPI year-on-year growth is -3.3%, with a month-on-month decline of -0.4%[16] - The gap between CPI and core CPI year-on-year continues to widen, indicating resilient service prices supporting inflation recovery[26] Group 2: CPI Analysis - Food prices remain stable, while oil prices exert downward pressure; service prices show resilience[6] - Transportation and communication prices decreased significantly, contributing -0.62% to the CPI[6] - Core CPI month-on-month fell to 0.0% (previously 0.2%), with a slight year-on-year increase to 0.6%[12] Group 3: PPI Analysis - PPI recovery is hindered by multiple factors, including falling international commodity prices and weak construction activity[16] - Coal and cement prices showed significant weakness in May, with coal mining prices down -3.0% month-on-month[16] - Export decline exacerbates supply-demand mismatch, with May exports showing a slight month-on-month decrease[16] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Trade tensions easing has not significantly aided the recovery of private sector balance sheets[27] - Private sector risk appetite has declined post negotiations, currently below levels prior to tariff increases[27] - Ongoing real estate pressures and weaker-than-expected consumer recovery remain key risks[31]

【资讯导读】 ·美国5月消费者价格指数同比上涨 ·贝森特：希望继续担任美国财政部长直至2029年 ·欧洲央行称黄金已成为全球央行第二大储备资产 ·欧洲央行管委马赫鲁夫：欧洲央行利率在可预见的未来可能会保持不变 ·国际油价涨逾4% 美元指数下跌0.47% 【市场资讯】 ·美国劳工部11日公布的数据显示，今年5月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%，较上月2.3%的 涨幅有所上升。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，5月核心CPI同比上涨2.8%。美国CPI环比上涨 0.1%，其中食品价格涨势明显，从4月环比下跌0.1%转为5月环比上涨0.3%。不过，由于能源价格环比 有所回落，当月CPI涨幅相对缓和。市场分析人士认为，5月美国通胀数据涨幅有限，原因可能是企业 使用已有库存导致价格维持相对稳定。美国加征进口关税的影响可能在未来几个月更为明显。 ·美国至6月11日10年期国债竞拍-得标利率4.421%，前值4.34%。美国至6月11日10年期国债竞拍-投标倍 数2.52，前值2.6。 ·美国财政部长贝森特在美国众议院筹款委员会的听证会上发表讲话。在被问及是否愿意担任美联储主 席时，贝森特明确表示，他希望继续担任 ...

欧洲央行管委武伊契奇：欧洲央行在利率方面处于非常有利的位置，希望到九月份我们能获得更多关税 方面的明确消息。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The central bank net withdrew 67.17 billion yuan last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased last week and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2509 contract is near the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. - In May, China's imports and exports continued to grow. After the China - US economic and trade high - level talks, the growth rate accelerated significantly. Despite having two fewer working days year - on - year, imports and exports and exports increased by 2.7% and 6.3% year - on - year respectively. The total value of China - US imports and exports was 285.51 billion yuan, with a month - on - month decrease of 12.67%, and the decline was 0.58 percentage points narrower than in April. Citigroup postponed its forecast of the US interest rate cut from July to September and expects three interest rate cuts of 75 basis points this year, revised from the previous forecast of 100 basis points [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Outlook - **Macro and News**: In May, China's imports and exports continued to grow, and the growth rate accelerated after the China - US economic and trade high - level talks. Citigroup postponed the forecast of the US interest rate cut from July to September and revised the expected interest rate cut amount [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The central bank net withdrew funds. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low. The market price fluctuates at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures Quotes - **Price Trends**: Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The weekly price increases of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 were 0.05%, 0.11%, 0.18%, and 0.31% respectively [6]. 4. Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long - term interest rates decreased, and the yield spread widened [9]. 5. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [12]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis narrowed [13][14]. 7. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than on June 3, and medium - to - long - term yields decreased [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, despite the volatile news, the bond market remained stable with bullish sentiment prevailing. On June 5th, the bond market yields declined instead of rising, pricing in the positive factors of central bank support [1][21]. - The central bank's early renewal of RMB 1 trillion in outright repurchase operations is a signal of support, which may reduce the possibility of a significant tightening of liquidity during the quarter - end [2][21]. - Institutional behavior has received two positive factors: large - banks' continuous allocation of short - term bonds in the secondary market may be a signal of the central bank restarting bond purchases; the improvement in long - term life insurance premiums may increase the insurance sector's allocation of ultra - long bonds [3]. - The outcome of the new round of Sino - US negotiations in the coming week is a variable. An optimistic outcome may lead to a short - term rise in long - term interest rates but is beneficial to the bond market in the medium term, while a neutral outcome may see the bond market continue to be influenced by central bank support, with limited downward space for long - term interest rates [32]. - In June, with few foreseeable negative factors, short - term bond prices have risen significantly, and long - term interest rates may break out of the narrow - range oscillation. Investors can consider trading duration products for excess returns [33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Bullish Sentiment Dominates - From June 3rd - 6th, after the Dragon Boat Festival, the bond market emerged from a narrow - range oscillation and showed a downward trend. Yields of long - term and short - term treasury bonds decreased, with the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250011) falling to 1.65% (- 2bp) and the 1 - year treasury bond active bond (250008) falling to 1.41% (- 5bp) [10]. 3.2 Bond Market May Be on the Rise - The central bank's early renewal of RMB 1 trillion in 3 - month outright repurchase operations, with the announcement form changed and the time advanced, is to enhance information transparency and ease market concerns about quarter - end pressure. There are still reserve operations in the second half of the month [2][21]. - The positive impact of central bank support is first reflected in the certificate of deposit (CD) market. After the central bank's announcement, the pressure on banks to issue CDs has eased, but there may still be issuance pressure in the next 1 - 2 weeks [22]. - In terms of institutional behavior, large banks have continuously allocated short - term bonds in the secondary market, which may be a signal of the central bank restarting bond purchases. In addition, the improvement in long - term life insurance premiums may increase the allocation of ultra - long bonds by the insurance sector [3][23][28]. 3.3 In the First Week of June, the Wealth Management Scale Continued to Shrink 3.3.1 Weekly Scale: A Slight Decline of RMB 1.79 Billion - At the end of May (May 26th - 30th), the wealth management scale decreased by RMB 186.6 billion due to the balance - sheet return pressure, with the daily - open products bearing the main decline. In May, the scale increased by RMB 193.4 billion, reaching a record high, but the growth rate was slightly slower than in previous years [37]. - In the first week of June (June 3rd - 6th), the wealth management scale unexpectedly decreased by RMB 1.79 billion to RMB 31.51 trillion. Historically, the scale usually increases in the first week of June [38]. 3.3.2 Wealth Management Risks: Net Value Stabilized and Negative Yields Decreased - The net value of wealth management products stabilized and rebounded, driving down the negative yield. The negative yield of products in the past week decreased by 4.90pct to 1.51%, and the negative yield in the past three months decreased by 0.66pct to 0.96% [43]. - The overall proportion of wealth management products breaking the net value decreased by 0.2pct to 0.7%, while the proportion of products with unmet performance targets increased by 0.5pct to 18.2% [52]. 3.4 Leverage Ratio: Large Banks' Lending Continued to Recover, and Inter - bank Leverage Increased - In the first week of June (June 3rd - 6th), with the central bank's support, the inter - bank funds became looser. The average price of funds decreased, and the average trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased from RMB 6.5 trillion to RMB 7.5 trillion, with the average overnight ratio rising from 83.33% to 87.48% [61]. - The leverage ratio of non - bank institutions slightly decreased, the inter - bank leverage ratio continued to rise from 107.18% to 107.36%, and the exchange leverage ratio slightly decreased [63]. 3.5 Funds Continued to Extend Duration - From June 3rd - 6th, bond funds further extended their duration. The median duration of interest - rate medium - and long - term bond funds increased from 4.32 years to 4.68 years, and that of credit medium - and long - term bond funds increased from 2.09 years to 2.22 years. The duration of short - term and medium - short - term bond funds also extended [71][75]. 3.6 Treasury Bond Issuance Accelerated - From June 9th - 13th, the planned issuance scale of government bonds was RMB 722.8 billion, mainly due to the accelerated issuance of treasury bonds, which increased by RMB 168.8 billion to RMB 615 billion compared with the previous week, while the local bond issuance scale remained basically unchanged at RMB 107.8 billion [79]. - Regarding local bonds, as of June 6th, the issuance progress of replacement bonds was 84.18%, and the issuance of new local special bonds was RMB 1647.9 billion, accounting for 37% of the RMB 4.4 trillion quota. From January 1st - June 13th, the cumulative net issuance of local bonds was RMB 3714.8 billion, an increase of RMB 2144.5 billion year - on - year [80][81]. - Regarding treasury bonds, from January 1st - June 13th, the cumulative net issuance was RMB 3371 billion, an increase of RMB 1854.3 billion year - on - year, with a remaining quota of RMB 3289 billion [84]. - Regarding policy - financial bonds, from January 1st - June 9th, the cumulative net issuance was RMB 827.4 billion, an increase of RMB 299.3 billion year - on - year [85].

特朗普：如果通胀再次出现，提高利率应对即可。鲍威尔正在为我们带来"巨额"损失。 ...

欧洲央行管委森特诺：未来一段时间内，利率将稳定在2%左右。 ...

欧洲央行管委穆勒：很难说下一步利率会如何变化。 ...