Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese yuan has entered a "surge" mode by the end of 2025, strengthening against major currencies, with the onshore yuan approaching the 7.04 mark, appreciating over 700 basis points since November, marking a 14-month high since October 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - The recent appreciation of the yuan is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar index and a shift towards a more accommodative global monetary policy environment, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve reaching 87% by mid-December [2] - China's assets are showing strong attractiveness in 2025, with the A-share Shanghai Composite Index breaking a nearly 10-year high and significant foreign capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks, with over 30 billion yuan net inflow in October [3] - The GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 5.3%, exceeding market expectations, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.2 in October, indicating a positive economic recovery [4] - International investment banks are raising their ratings on Chinese assets, correcting previous pessimistic expectations about the domestic economy, which provides solid fundamental support for the yuan's exchange rate [5] - China's exports have shown unexpected resilience, with a trade surplus of 51 billion USD in September, the highest monthly figure since 2020, enhancing the stability of the foreign exchange market and providing endogenous appreciation momentum for the yuan [5] - Domestic policies aimed at reducing "involution" are driving corporate value reassessment, alongside narratives from AI and technology sectors, making yuan-denominated assets more competitive globally [6] - Increased preference for yuan assets by overseas investors is further driving the exchange rate up, creating a positive cycle of asset appreciation, capital inflow, and currency strengthening [7] - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak period for foreign trade enterprises to settle foreign exchange, as they convert accumulated foreign exchange income into yuan to lock in profits [8] - Additionally, overseas workers tend to remit their wages back to China before the Spring Festival, increasing demand for yuan, with historical data showing that the surplus from bank foreign exchange settlements is typically highest before the Spring Festival [9]

近期，知名经济学家洪灝在与瑞士宝盛的本年度收官对话中，展望了2026年的美股、A股市场，并重点剖析了AI、大宗商品及人民币等核心议题。 投资作业本课代表整理了要点如下: 1、现在说（美国AI）泡沫要破，可能还为时过早。但必须承认估值已经很贵了。那么历史上达到如此估值的高度次数屈指可数。 以及一般来说，这个估值水平， 美股未来7到10年的平均回报率往往只有个位数。 2、 从下半年开始，我们就建议客户把美股获利的部分转向非美市场。主要原因是 美股相对于其他市场的表现已经达到历史高位，再期待它持续跑赢，可 能不太现实。 3、我 相信如果投AI的话，我们会继续投现在已经崭露头角的公司，以及一些大型的从以前的科技、互联网公司转型成AI公司的领头羊。 以下是投资作业本课代表（微信ID：touzizuoyeben）整理的精华内容，分享给大家： 2026年只要经济不太差，A股值得期待 主持人：年初至今，上证和沪深300指数以及港股恒生指数涨了很多，在全球市场算是领先的。不过从十月开始，股指上升势头有所减弱，板块之间开始 轮动，比如科技类的成长股承压明显，反而价值股和周期股更受资金青睐。 4、如果AI故事继续，经济周期位置不变 ...

恒生指数低开0.54%，恒生科技指数跌1.11%。盘面上，券商板块强势，中金公司今日复盘开盘涨超7%; 科网股跌幅居前，阿里巴巴跌近2%。 本文转载自"腾讯自选股"，智通财经编辑：李佛。 华泰证券认为，目前市场下行空间可控但上行胜率尚未打开。港股情绪指标依然处于悲观区间，对应磨 底阶段，情绪指数走势与2024年11月类似。彼时情绪指标进入恐慌区间后，市场在2025年初迎来明显反 弹，春节前后DeepSeek催化下斜率放大。未来行情催化因素可能来自以下三点预期差：人民币升值： 升值共识一旦形成，资本流动或发生重要改变，可以类比今年欧洲市场;企业出海：市场依然担忧汇率 升值和出口高基数的影响，明年上半年中美关系依然处于温和期，出口韧性存在预期差。 招商证券认为，近期港股市场在海外降息后仍未企稳，主要来自于两个内部流动性问题：公募基金基准 新规落地，可能导致卖出部分港股;港股阶段性资金需求较大。上述叙事虽然存在，且在下跌过程中持 续强化，但总体来看影响较为有限。 关于港股后市 招商证券认为，港股近期走弱缘于：南向资金由于公募基准新规而回流A股和抱团的挤出效应，IPO融 资潮的担忧，解禁高峰的到来，盈利下修与海外流动 ...

Core Viewpoints - The characteristics of trading driven by overseas macro events have become evident this year, with increased radiation and linkage to the domestic market. The focus has shifted from being primarily economy-driven to multiple channels including economy, geopolitics, AI industry trends, and global liquidity [1][5][36] - Four main paths of overseas influence on the domestic market need close attention in the coming year: external demand affecting profit expectations, AI chains contributing to market hotspots, reduced geopolitical risks, and positive impacts of overseas liquidity and RMB appreciation on domestic assets [1][20][59] Group 1: Overseas Influence on Domestic Market - Despite the impact of tariffs, China's export growth has remained robust, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 5.4% in export value for the first 11 months, and a trade surplus increase of 21%. Net exports contributed 29% to GDP, surpassing the 17.5% contribution from investment [5][43] - The global economic outlook suggests a dual easing of fiscal and monetary policies, providing strong support for domestic growth through external demand. The structural shift in exports towards Africa and ASEAN has effectively countered declines in exports to the US [5][43][54] - Domestic enterprises are actively expanding into overseas markets, potentially creating a second growth curve, with leading companies likely to break through first. China's foreign direct investment is expected to reach nearly $200 billion in 2024, contrasting with a decline in global FDI [7][45] Group 2: Geopolitical Changes - Geopolitical changes are expected to influence market risk preferences in the short term and the restructuring of global order in the long term. China's response to trade tensions has demonstrated strategic resolve, and the market is becoming less sensitive to US tariff policies [10][49] - The trend towards regional integration and de-dollarization is accelerating, with a focus on self-sufficient supply chains. This context reduces tail risks and enhances the strategic value of scarce resources and capital goods [10][49] Group 3: AI Industry Trends - The AI wave has generated hotspots in the domestic market, primarily impacting hardware profitability and leading to valuation increases in applications. The market has experienced two rounds of AI-related trends this year, with a focus on hardware profitability and the need for actual earnings realization [12][51] - As overseas AI investments deepen, their influence is beginning to spill over into other asset classes, with a shift from "chip shortages" to "electricity shortages" becoming evident. This shift is expected to increase demand for power equipment and copper [13][52] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Currency Trends - The Federal Reserve's easing cycle, narrowing of the US-China interest rate differential, and gradual appreciation of the RMB are favorable for domestic asset performance. The trade surplus remains high, and the willingness of enterprises to convert currency has increased significantly [15][54] - The RMB is expected to continue appreciating, supported by a substantial potential for currency conversion funds and the anticipated further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming year [15][54] Group 5: Market Conditions and Recommendations - The domestic bond market is facing redemption pressures, with skepticism about the long-term interest rate support. The market is expected to experience volatility, with a focus on short- to medium-term credit bonds as relatively safe choices [39][60] - In the stock market, there is a consensus expectation for a spring rally, but the lack of earnings support may limit upward potential. Key sectors to watch include technology growth, commercial aerospace, and robotics, alongside cyclical and resource sectors [39][62]

21世纪经济报道 记者郭聪聪，实习生董凌含 北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储宣布实施2025年内的第三次降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.50%–3.75%。至此，美联储在本年度已累计降 息75个基点，业内人士表示，符合市场普遍预期。 值得关注的是，在此政策窗口期，国内一批年化收益率仍保持在"3%"以上的美元理财产品，正吸引不少投资者的目光。然而，另一关键因素也在悄然影响 美元理财的投资回报：人民币对美元汇率持续走强，汇率多日破"7"关口，年内累计升值已超3.4%。 面对看似可观的高息机会，投资者面临着现实的抉择：是抓住利率"高位"窗口配置美元资产，还是谨慎看待未来汇率与收益的双重波动？ 三度降息，政策抉择的十字路口 2025年，美联储延续了2024 年以来的宽松货币政策基调，三次降息逐步落地。 9月18日，美联储首次启动降息，将联邦基金利率区间下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%；10月30日进行第二次降息，利率区间进一步调降至 3.75%-4.00%；12月 11日的第三次降息后，利率最终落在了3.50%-3.75%区间，业内人士表示，全年宽松力度与市场此前预判一致。 | | 2025年美 ...

近期，人民币对美元汇率大涨！ 12月16日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率突破了7.05，其中离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升至7.04008，在岸人民币 对美元汇率盘中最高升至7.0470，创下去年9月以来的新高。 人民币的升值，不仅在国内经济层面引发了广泛关注，也对跨境电商行业产生了深远的影响。在汇率上行的背景下， 跨境卖家如何借势降本增利，成为当前的重要思考方向。 根据中国人民银行的最新公告，人民币汇率中间价今年以来上涨超过1000个基点。人民币升值的背后有多个因素： 1、美元指数下行，人民币升值 12月11日美联储降息前后，美元指数跌破了100的关键点位，推动了包括人民币在内的 非美货币普遍升值。其中人民币汇率上涨也成为全球市场关注的焦点。 2、季节性结汇需求增加 年底企业结汇需求普遍增加，这一季节性需求加速了人民币的升值。尤其是在人民币持续升 值的背景下，企业的结汇需求可能在快速的释放。 3、国际资金流入中国 根据中国经济数据近期发布的数据，海外资金对中国市场的配置兴趣显著回升。国际货币基金 组织（IMF）、世界银行等顶尖金融机构相继上调了中国经济增长预期，增强了外资流入中国的动力，这一因素也可 能推动了 ...

本周一，人民币对美元汇率盘中大涨，离岸、在岸人民币对美元汇率双双升破7.05元的关口，创下14个月以来的新高。 其中，在岸人民币对美元汇率最高升至7.0470元，离岸人民币最高升至7.0453元。 可能一些小伙伴要问了：离岸和在岸人民币有什么区别？这次的人民币汇率大涨有何不同？对我们又有什么影响？ 简单来说，在岸人民币和离岸人民币，核心区别在于交易和管理的"地理位置"不同。 01在岸人民币 在岸人民币就是在中国内地交易的、受到央行严格监管的人民币。它的汇率受到政策引导，所以波动相对小。 02离岸人民币 所谓离岸人民币，就是交易地点在中国内地以外（比如中国香港、新加坡、伦敦等）的人民币，目前中国香港是最活跃的离岸人民币市场。 | 7.04270 ↓ | 最 高 | 7.05559 今 开 | 7.05534 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -0.01072 -0.15% | 最 低 | 7.04175 昨 收 1 | 7.05341 | | 52周最高 | 7.42911 买 价 | 7.04193 最低买价 | 7.04098 | 我们可以把离岸人民币汇率理解成在境外买卖人民币的" ...

12月17日，港股早盘窄幅震荡，午后强势拉升集体收涨，其中恒生指数涨0.92%报25468.78点，恒生科 技指数涨1.03%报5457.95点，国企指数涨0.98%报8843.57点，红筹指数平收报406000点。 盘面上，大型科技股多数走高，阿里巴巴涨1.25%，腾讯控股涨1.42%，京东集团涨1.26%，小米集团涨 0.78%，网易-S跌0.38%，美团涨1.81%，快手涨1.72%，哔哩哔哩涨1.11%。航空股全天强势，南方航空 涨超5%；金融股午后拉升，中国人寿涨超4%；有色金属板块涨幅居前，天齐锂业涨近6%，赣锋锂业涨 超5%，洛阳钼业涨超2%；半导体股上涨，上海复旦涨4%，华虹半导体涨近3%，中芯国际涨超2%； HashKey Exchange首日破发。 企业新闻 翰森制药(03692.HK)：与GLENMARK就阿美替尼订立许可协议。公告称，根据协议将获得首付款和后 续可能累计超过十亿美元的监管和商业里程碑付款，以及授权区域内净销售额的分级特许权使用费。 越秀地产(00123.HK)：获授5亿港元的定期贷款融资。 中国铁建(01186.HK)：拟发行不超过40亿元可续期公司债券。 歌礼制药-B ...

近期，受益于美元整体偏弱的外部环境、国内权益市场表现良好吸引外资流入等因素影响，人民币对美元汇率呈现稳中有升态势。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，近期人民币兑美元连续上行，有两个直接原因：首先，12月11日美联储降息前后，美元指数持续下 行跌破100，这带动包括人民币在内的非美货币普遍出现一个升值过程。其次，年底企业结汇需求增加，也带动人民币季节性走强；近期 人民币持续走强后，前期累积的结汇需求可能在加速释放。 新华财经北京12月17日电（马萌伟）16日，美国11月非农新增就业超预期，但失业率意外升至四年高位，交易员未加大对美联储降息的 押注，美元指数小幅下跌，人民币兑美元汇率延续强势行情，再度刷新逾一年来新高。 具体数据显示，16日，在岸人民币兑美元汇率逼近7.04关口，离岸人民币兑美元一度升至14个月高点7.03关口附近。 17日，人民币兑美元中间价较上日调升29点至7.0573，升值至2024年10月9日以来最高。亚洲交易时段盘中，在、离岸人民币兑美元交投 于7.04关口附近。 美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人；但失业率却意外升至4.6%，创下20 ...

Group 1 - The RMB to USD exchange rate has significantly increased, with both onshore and offshore rates approaching the 7.04 mark, reaching a 14-month high, driven by a weak dollar environment and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown remarkable performance, with the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index rising by 75.82% this year, led by industrial metals like copper, gold, and lead-zinc, indicating strong mid-to-long-term investment value [1] - The commercial aerospace sector has gained attention in the capital market, with the Wind Commercial Aerospace Index rising over 20% since November 24, reflecting the importance of policy and market dynamics in this industry [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has granted the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicle permits, marking a significant step towards commercial application of autonomous driving technology in China [3] - The acquisition of ST Yishite by Jingjiang Industry for 2.437 billion yuan highlights the trend of state-owned enterprises in Hubei leveraging capital markets for industrial upgrades, focusing on emerging sectors like new energy and semiconductors [4] - Over 100 listed companies in A-shares are involved in the energy storage business, with 41 companies reporting over 100 million yuan in overseas revenue in the first half of 2024, indicating strong growth potential in this sector [5] Group 3 - The national energy work conference revealed that total installed power generation capacity is expected to exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts this year, with a year-on-year growth of 14%, and the A-share power grid equipment index has risen by 31.28% this year [6] - The recent IPOs of domestic GPU manufacturers like Moer Thread and Muxi reflect the rapid development of the AI chip sector, emphasizing the need for public market support to address high costs associated with AI chip production [7] - The introduction of the first industry standard for gold exchange services in China aims to create a more transparent and fair trading environment, enhancing compliance and promoting healthy industry development [8]