新华财经北京1月19日电上周（1月12日至16日当周）国际现货黄金震荡走高，当周上涨85.67美元或 1.9%，连续第二周收阳。 分析来看，随着围绕美联储独立性、关税走向及中东局势的不确定性升温，地缘紧张与美国国内政治动 荡交织，金银向上突破，再度刷新历史新高。 展望新的一周，特朗普有关关税和格陵兰岛等地缘局势的表态仍引发市场高度关注。此外，美国PCE数 据公布在即，美联储货币政策的动向也仍是贵金属市场的焦点。 地缘紧张与美国国内动荡，金银再创历史新高 俄乌冲突仍在延宕，美国在1月3日对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动之后近期又对伊朗频频发出威胁，加 上格陵兰岛局势，整体地缘局势呈现收紧状态。这推动上周一国际金银跳空高开，并在日内震荡走高。 地缘紧张局势无疑是导致避险资金持续流入贵金属并推高贵金属价格的重要原因。 地缘紧张与美国国内动荡使得贵金属市场获益明显。上周初，金价将历史高位刷新到4642.85美元／盎 司；白银表现更为亮眼，当周高点至93.70美元／盎司，年度累计涨幅达到近30%的水平。 戏剧性的是，上周后半周，地缘局势带来的利多突然发生变化。随着特朗普表态将对伊朗局势"拭目以 待"之后，地缘局势出现明显降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend strength of aluminum is 1, indicating a relatively positive trend; the trend strength of alumina is -1, showing a relatively negative trend; the trend strength of aluminum alloy is 1, suggesting a relatively positive trend [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 23,925, down 450 from the previous day, and the night - session closing price is 23,945. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price is 3,129, down 43. The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 660,823, down 106,057. The open interest is 333,899, down 12,932. The LME Aluminum 3M trading volume is 29,031, down 28,896. The LME cancelled warrant ratio is 8.49%, down 0.37%. The LME Aluminum cash - 3M spread is 1.42, unchanged. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract is -75, up 90. The cost of the near - month long and first - continuous short inter - period arbitrage is 79.72, down 11.05 [1] 3.1.2 Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 2,751, down 38. The night - session closing price is 2,768. The trading volume is 793,272, up 174,310. The open interest is 490,116, down 18,669. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract is -97, up 67. The cost of the near - month long and first - continuous short inter - period arbitrage is 33.74, down 7.39 [1] 3.1.3 Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 22,735, down 420. The night - session closing price is 22,710. The trading volume is 18,527, down 266. The open interest is 20,886, down 742. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract is -80.00, down 170. The spot premium is -180, down 50 [1] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The pre - baked anode market price is 6,087, unchanged. The Foshan aluminum rod processing fee is -20, unchanged. The Shandong 1A60 aluminum rod processing fee is 200, unchanged. The aluminum ingot scrap price difference is 1,586, down 41. The profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is 7,868.01, down 157.59. The profit and loss of aluminum spot imports is -2,149.97, down 114.15. The profit and loss of aluminum 3M imports is -1,873.41, down 197.59. The profit and loss of aluminum plate and coil exports is 3,394.86, up 172.56. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 74.90 million tons, unchanged. The SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt is 14.08 million tons, up 0.27. The LME aluminum ingot inventory is 48.80 million tons, down 0.20 [1] 3.2.2 Alumina - The domestic average alumina price is 2,666, down 5. The alumina CIF price at Lianyungang is $331 per ton, unchanged, and 2,720 yuan per ton, unchanged. The Australian alumina FOB price is $310 per ton, unchanged. The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises is -202, unchanged [1] 3.2.3 Aluminum Ore - The price of Australian imported bauxite is $40 per ton, down 2. The price of Indonesian imported bauxite is $42 per ton, unchanged. The price of Guinean imported bauxite is $43 per ton, down 1. The Yangquan bauxite price is 430, unchanged [1] 3.2.4 Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 is 304, down 8. The price of Baotai ADC12 is 23,500, down 100. The difference between Baotai ADC12 and A00 is -530, up 10. The total inventory of three places is 43,492, down 19 [1] 3.2.5 Caustic Soda - The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) is 2,325, unchanged [1]

中信证券研报称，特朗普表示希望哈塞特留任美国国家经济委员会（NEC）主席。此后，市场认为沃什 当选美联储新主席概率最大，但我们认为在安排"最听话"的哈塞特留任白宫后，选择"最合适"的沃勒或 是更好的选择，我们认为沃勒仍有胜出机会。美国最高法院于1月21日针对Trump VS Cook的口头辩论 结果是影响美联储独立性的关键事件，市场仍在等待这一不确定性的落地。若特朗普的申请被驳回，我 们预计市场将庆祝美联储独立性得到保护，利多美元、利空 黄金、美债曲线平坦化。美国司法部对鲍 威尔的调查遇到的政治阻力超出白宫预期，白宫正试图弱化该调查，我们预计该事件后续对市场不会造 成明显影响。在特朗普选择"非哈塞特"后，我们认为鲍威尔将遵循传统，在主席交接后也一并辞去理事 职务。 ...

Group 1 - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is evolving into a political backlash against the Trump administration, with a subpoena issued regarding renovation costs of the Fed building [2] - Powell's strong statement against the investigation has resonated within the Republican Party, signaling potential resistance to the confirmation of the next Fed chair if the investigation continues [2] - Trump's advisors are attempting to de-escalate the situation, suggesting that once the requested information is provided, the matter could be resolved [2] Group 2 - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing regarding Fed Governor Lisa Cook is critical for the independence of the Federal Reserve, as a ruling in favor of Trump could allow the president to dismiss any Fed official at will [3][5] - Strong economic data, such as a 4.3% GDP growth in Q4, raises concerns about the Fed's independence in combating inflation, with potential implications for bond yields if investors lose confidence [6] - The Supreme Court's signals currently lean towards protecting Cook, but any shifts in stance during the hearing could lead to significant market volatility [6] Group 3 - The selection process for the next Fed chair is expected to conclude soon, with candidates including Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, though Hassett's loyalty to Trump may not secure him the position [7][8] - Signs indicate that Warsh is the likely candidate for the Fed chair, as he is viewed more favorably by Wall Street compared to Hassett, who is seen as too closely aligned with Trump [8] - Trump's upcoming speech in Davos may coincide with the announcement of the new Fed chair, although there is still a possibility of delays or unexpected candidates being introduced [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the trends of the US Treasury bond market, US macro - economic indicators, and major asset classes. It shows that the US Treasury bond yields fluctuated this week due to economic data, geopolitical issues, and concerns about the Fed's independence. The US macro - economy shows mixed signals in different sectors, with some indicators improving while others still showing weakness. Major asset classes also have diverse performances across different regions and types [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 美债利率本周回顾 - This week (January 9 - January 16, 2026), US Treasury bond yields generally increased, with the curve rising. Except for the ultra - long - term bonds, interest rates rose significantly. In the first half of the week, yields declined due to economic data and moderate CPI. In the second half, housing sales, unemployment data, geopolitical issues, and concerns about the Fed's independence pushed yields up again [1][11]. - After the Fed received a subpoena from Trump, Powell countered, and the Fed's tough attitude eased investors' panic. The market doesn't think Trump will substantially undermine the current Fed. Trump's "pressure" is more likely a warning for the next - term chairman. However, this move may have the opposite effect, and there are also divisions within the Republican Party [2][12]. - The 3 - year US Treasury bill auction was robust, with a bid - to - cover ratio higher than the previous value. The 10 - year and 30 - year auctions were relatively weak [17]. 3.2 美国宏观经济指标点评 - **景气指数**: In 2025, the US new home sales market showed signs of recovery, but there were regional disparities and inventory pressures. The existing home sales in December 2025 reached a three - year high. Retail sales in November 2025 rebounded, mainly driven by holiday consumption. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in January 2026 reached a new high since September last year, indicating a marginal improvement in regional manufacturing demand [3][23]. - **就业**: As of the week of January 10, 2026, the number of initial jobless claims decreased, reaching the second - lowest level in two years. However, the labor market shows a weak balance of "low lay - offs and low hiring", and the employment growth remains sluggish [24][25]. - **通胀**: In 2025, the US PPI and CPI showed different trends. The PPI was affected by energy prices and service - end price dynamics. The CPI showed a stage of stability in December 2025, with some categories' price increases slowing down and others accelerating [26]. 3.3 大类资产点评 - **债券**: German bond yields declined, while Japanese bond yields remained high due to market expectations of an interest - rate hike [4][28]. - **权益**: Asian stock markets generally strengthened, while European and American markets were under pressure [4][29]. - **大宗**: Metals and digital assets led the gains, while agricultural products and some industrial raw materials faced pressure [4][30]. - **外汇**: Asian currencies were generally under pressure, while the Russian ruble rose [4][32]. 3.4 市场跟踪 The report provides various charts to track the performance of global major economies' government bond interest rates, stock indices, commodities, and foreign exchange rates, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [33][44][51][56].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing political struggles surrounding the Federal Reserve, particularly the investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell, are reaching a critical juncture that could significantly impact market expectations regarding interest rate movements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investigation into Powell - The criminal investigation into Powell is evolving into a political backlash against the Trump administration, with subpoenas issued regarding renovation costs of the Federal Reserve building [4]. - This backlash resonates within the Republican Party, signaling to the White House that failure to terminate the investigation could hinder the confirmation process for the next Federal Reserve Chair [5]. - Trump's advisors are attempting to de-escalate the situation, suggesting that once the requested information is provided, the matter could be resolved [6][7]. Group 2: Supreme Court Case - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is crucial for the independence of the Federal Reserve [8]. - The case stems from Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook on allegations of mortgage fraud, which she denies, and her legal challenge aims to protect her position [9]. - A ruling in favor of Trump could undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve by allowing the President to dismiss any Federal Reserve official at will [10]. Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. GDP growth reached 4.3% in the fourth quarter, raising questions about the justification for interest rate cuts, especially given Trump's previous calls for rates to be lowered to near zero [11]. - If investors perceive that the Federal Reserve is no longer independent in combating inflation, bond yields could rise sharply [12]. Group 4: Future Leadership of the Federal Reserve - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to conclude soon, with candidates including Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh [14]. - Current indications suggest that Warsh is favored over Hassett, as he is seen as more capable of maintaining a degree of independence, which is viewed positively by Wall Street [15]. - Trump's upcoming speech in Davos may coincide with the announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair, although there is potential for delays or unexpected candidates [16][17].

特朗普为了逼迫鲍威尔就范，几乎动用了所有能够使用的手段。一方面，特朗普通过公开羞辱或舆论攻击的手段，给鲍威尔施加压力。 比如给鲍威尔起了很多像"太迟先生"等具有羞辱性的外号。并且在没有足够证据支撑的情况下，指责他的货币政策导致美国损失了"数千 亿美元"。在视察美联储总部翻修工程时，甚至当面羞辱鲍威尔，声称他应该为自己的做法感到"耻辱"。 另一方面，特朗普一步步往美联储领导层"掺沙子"。不仅提名自己的亲信斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事，充当"内应"，而且以公开信的形 式，宣布解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克的职务，试图削弱美联储内部支持鲍威尔的力量，但由于没有获得法律支持，最终没能成功。更令人 意想不到的是，特朗普竟然已经提前布局了接班人，施压鲍威尔提前辞职。 此外，特朗普还直接动用司法手段，企图尽快将鲍威尔拉下台。特朗普以美联储总部翻修项目预算超支为由，指责鲍威尔管理不善，威 胁起诉他，并要求共和党方面，以"政治立场偏差"和"国会作伪证"为由，调查鲍威尔。 我们可以注意到，鲍威尔在与特朗普的博弈中，始终都保持着强硬立场，虽说他的美联储主席任期快结束了，但他承诺绝不提前离职。 鲍威尔敢于"硬刚"特朗普，主要由于其在美国内外 ...

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 地缘风险变数再起，美元维持强势 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好维持高位，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数回 升，美债收益率升至 4.22%。美元指数涨 0.26%至 99.4，非美货 币多数贬值，离岸人民币涨 0.12%，欧元跌 0.34%，英镑跌 0.19%，日元跌 0.15%，瑞郎跌 0.22%，韩元、卢比贬值，新西兰 元、兰特、林吉特升值，比索涨近 2%。金价涨 1.9%至 4597 美 元/盎司，VIX 指数回升至 158，现货商品指数收跌，布油涨 3.5%至 67.6 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 地缘政治风险扰动仍在，特朗普对伊朗态度边际软化。周末特 朗普表示要对欧洲 8 国在 2 月 1 日加征 10%关税，6 月 1 日后提 升至 25%，直到达成完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛达成协议，引发 欧盟与美国冲突增加，预计会对股市情绪构成压制。美国经济 数据表现尚可，12 月 CPI 同比维持在 2.7%，符合市场预期，但 核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 2.7%，食品 和服务价格上涨是 核心推动因素，住房 ...

面对压力，特朗普的核心幕僚开始尝试"找个台阶下"。 智通财经APP获悉，围绕美联储的各种斗争，终于迎来了终局时刻。 随着针对现任主席鲍威尔的刑事调查引发政治反噬，以及下周三最高法院即将审理的关键案件，围绕美 联储的种种权力博弈可能都会在下周决出胜负。 调查鲍威尔：政治反噬与"找个台阶下" 针对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事调查，似乎正在演变成一场对特朗普政府的政治反噬。 上周末，美国检察官就美联储大楼装修费用向鲍威尔发出传票。1月11日，鲍威尔罕见地发表强硬声 明，痛斥此举是破坏央行独立性的借口。 这一反击在共和党内部引发共鸣，似乎正在变成向白宫传递了清晰信号：若不终止调查，下一任美联储 主席提名人的确认程序将面临巨大阻力。 目前，最高法院发出的信号倾向于保护库克，但在周三的庭审中，任何立场的摇摆都可能引发市场的剧 烈震荡。 上周五，美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特在福克斯商业频道试图淡化事态，称这只是"简单的信息 索取"，暗示一旦信息提交，此事便可翻篇。 财政部长斯科特·贝森特随后附和，暗示只要检察官珍妮·皮罗得到"满意的答复"，此事便可翻篇。 这种态度转变背后的逻辑显而易见：特朗普需要维持"未下令调查"的推诿空 ...

美国总统特朗普这次算是踢到"钢板"了，只得认怂，全球都在力挺他的"死对头"美联储主席鲍威尔，中方也悄悄干了件大事。特朗普让步了吗？为什么全球 各国对美国内政反应如此之大？中方为避险做了什么事？ 特朗普上任以来，一直对美联储主席鲍威尔感到很不爽，因为此人拒绝按照他的意愿行事。从第二任期开始，特朗普不止一次要求美联储大幅快速降息，以 刺激经济，帮助他提高中期选举的选情。 但鲍威尔不愿意按照特朗普的意思去办，基于通货膨胀风险和美国经济长远发展考虑，仅启动了小幅降息的举措，面对"不听话"的鲍威尔，以特朗普的性格 必然是硬刚到底。 特朗普为了逼迫鲍威尔就范，几乎动用了所有能够使用的手段。一方面，特朗普通过公开羞辱或舆论攻击的手段，给鲍威尔施加压力。比如给鲍威尔起了很 多像"太迟先生"等具有羞辱性的外号。并且在没有足够证据支撑的情况下，指责他的货币政策导致美国损失了"数千亿美元"。在视察美联储总部翻修工程 时，甚至当面羞辱鲍威尔，声称他应该为自己的做法感到"耻辱"。 中方也在悄悄干一件大事，那就是继续加大力度减持美债。目前，中国手里的美债已经跌至6887 亿美元，创下17年以来的新低。 另一方面，特朗普一步步往美联储领导 ...