Group 1 - A U.S. senator is attempting to strip the Federal Reserve of a key tool for controlling interest rates, indicating potential scrutiny of the tools policymakers use to influence the economy [1] - The senator's efforts, led by Ted Cruz, aim to terminate the Fed's payment of interest on bank reserves, which could significantly alter how the Fed manages interest rates and its large bond holdings [1][2] - Since 2022, the Fed has reduced its bond holdings by over $2 trillion, with estimates suggesting that the reduction will end when its balance sheet decreases from $6.7 trillion to approximately $6.1 trillion [4] Group 2 - The current interest rate control mechanism, established during the 2008 financial crisis, has been criticized for being an unfair subsidy to the financial sector and has led the Fed to shift from profit to loss [2] - Former Fed officials express concerns that losing the power to pay interest on reserves could force the Fed to aggressively withdraw excess liquidity, potentially leading to higher short-term interest rates [3] - There is a divergence of opinions regarding the appropriate size of the Fed's balance sheet, with some suggesting it could be reduced to $5.9 trillion, while others advocate for a more aggressive reduction to curb speculation [4]

油价大幅拉升！ 当地时间7月29日（周二），美国股市三大股指全线收跌。中概股亦多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.35%。消息面上，市场等待美联储即将公布的 货币政策会议结果，市场普遍预期将维持基准利率不变。 作为美股市场最重要的一类板块，大型科技股多数下跌，其中Meta跌逾2%，特斯拉、苹果跌逾1%，亚马逊跌0.76%，英伟达跌0.7%，微软涨0.01%，谷歌 涨逾1%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅▼ | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GOOG | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-C | 196.500 | 3.080 | 1.59% | 3.42% | | MSFT | 微软(MICROSOFT) | 512.570 | 0.070 | 0.01% | 22.07% | | NVDA | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 175.510 | -1.240 | -0.70% | 30.72% | | AMZN | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 231.010 | -1.780 | -0.76% | 5.30% | | AAPL | 苹 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - On July 29, U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.46% at 44,632.99 points, the S&P 500 down 0.3% at 6,370.86 points, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.38% at 21,098.29 points [3][4] - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with Meta down over 2%, Tesla and Apple down over 1%, while Google gained over 1% [4][5] - U.S. airline stocks fell across the board, with Southwest Airlines down 4.39%, Delta Airlines down 1.99%, and United Airlines down 1.93% [6] Group 2: Oil Market - International oil prices surged significantly on July 29, with U.S. crude oil futures nearing $70 per barrel, closing with a nearly 4% increase [11] - Brent crude oil also saw a rise of over 4% during the day, closing with a gain of more than 3.5% [12] - President Trump indicated that if Russia does not make progress in ending the Ukraine conflict, the U.S. would impose tariffs on Russia within 10 days, stating he is not concerned about the potential impact on oil prices [14] Group 3: Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.35%, with several Chinese stocks declining significantly, including Pony.ai and Kingsoft Cloud down over 8% [7][8] - Li Auto experienced volatility, initially rising over 6% before closing down more than 6% [8] - Other Chinese stocks like NIO and Xpeng also saw declines of over 2%, while Yipeng Energy rose over 9% [10]

当地时间7月29日（周二），美国股市三大股指全线收跌。中概股亦多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.35%。消息面上，市场等待美联储即将公布的货币政策会 议结果，市场普遍预期将维持基准利率不变。 国际油价大涨。当地时间7月29日，美油、布油盘中涨幅均超过4%。 美国股市三大股指全线收跌 当地时间7月29日（周二），美国股市三大股指全线收跌，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数跌0.46%，报44632.99点，标准普尔500指数跌0.3%，报6370.86点，纳斯达克 综合指数跌0.38%，报21098.29点。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44632.99c | -204.57 | -0.46% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 21098.29c | -80.29 | -0.38% | | 标普500 | 6370.86c | -18.91 | -0.30% | 作为美股市场最重要的一类板块，大型科技股多数下跌，其中Meta跌逾2%，特斯拉、苹果跌逾1%，亚马逊跌0.76%，英伟达跌0.7%，微软涨0.01%，谷歌涨逾1%。 油价大幅 ...

Group 1 - The number of job vacancies in the U.S. decreased to 7.44 million in June, down from a revised 7.71 million in May, indicating a cooling trend in labor market demand [1][4] - The decline in job vacancies affected multiple sectors, including accommodation and food services, healthcare, and finance and insurance, suggesting a broad slowdown in job demand [1][4] - The current level of job vacancies remains above pre-pandemic averages, indicating overall healthy demand for labor, despite a slowdown in hiring pace [4] Group 2 - The hiring rate fell to 3.3% in June, the lowest since November of the previous year, while the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals remained at 1.1, a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve [4] - Some economists have raised concerns about the reliability of the JOLTS data due to low response rates and frequent revisions, although similar indicators from job site Indeed also showed a decline in job postings [4] - The upcoming July non-farm payroll report is expected to provide further insights into the labor market, with predictions of slowing job growth and rising unemployment rates [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy**, **monetary policy**, and the **impact of tariffs** on the dollar's performance in the global market. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Weak Dollar Performance**: The dollar has weakened significantly in the first half of the year, with the dollar index around 98, influenced by a larger downward revision of U.S. economic growth compared to global growth, Trump's tariff policies, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][4][6]. 2. **Economic Growth Projections**: The IMF revised U.S. economic growth forecasts from 2.7% to 1.8%, while global growth was adjusted from 3.3% to 2.8%. This indicates a more significant impact on the U.S. economy compared to the global economy [2][4]. 3. **Tariff Policy Impact**: Trump's tariffs have had a strong and uncertain impact, particularly following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April. However, the negative impact on the U.S. economy is expected to diminish in the second half of the year due to new trade agreements [4][5]. 4. **Federal Reserve's Dilemma**: The Fed faces a dual risk of needing to cut rates due to political pressure while inflation levels do not support rapid cuts. The market anticipates two rate cuts in the second half, but the timing remains uncertain [6][7][17]. 5. **Fiscal Pressure and Dollar Weakness**: High deficit rates typically correlate with a weak dollar. The CBO predicts that interest payments as a percentage of GDP will rise, indicating potential future dollar weakness [7][9]. 6. **Tariff Revenue Projections**: U.S. tariff revenue is expected to reach $250 billion in 2025, with a potential increase of $2.5 trillion over the next decade, which may alleviate some fiscal pressures despite the "Big and Beautiful" plan increasing the deficit [9][17]. 7. **Global Fund Allocation Trends**: There has been a shift in global fund allocation, with a reduction in stock holdings and an expansion in bond holdings. The "American exceptionalism" narrative is reversing, but the dollar's status as a reserve currency remains strong [3][11][14]. 8. **Stablecoin Development**: The development of stablecoins is crucial for maintaining the dollar's reserve status in the cryptocurrency space, with the U.S. government taking steps to ensure its dominance [15]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Inflation Monitoring**: Attention is needed on structural pressures within the CPI, as rising inflation could complicate the Fed's decision-making regarding rate cuts [6][7]. 2. **Market Sentiment and Future Trends**: The market sentiment may experience a reversal in the second half of the year, with potential fluctuations in the dollar's value as it navigates between 95 and 100 [18]. 3. **Long-term Fiscal Outlook**: While there are concerns about long-term debt and fiscal health, short-term impacts on the dollar are expected to be manageable due to measures taken by the current administration [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of precious metals is under pressure due to the easing of overseas geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties, and the resilience of US economic data [2]. - The Fed's monetary policy stance is expected to turn dovish in the July interest - rate meeting this week, and the Fed's interest - rate cut this year will exceed market expectations. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, with a focus on the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 794 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9075 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.31% to 770.84 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) dropped 0.27% to 9200.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 0.06% to 3311.90 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 0.25% to 38.32 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.42%, and the US dollar index was 98.63 [2]. - The prices of various precious metal products showed different changes, such as Au(T + D) dropping 0.26% to 771.58 yuan/gram, and Ag(T + D) dropping 1.98% to 9186.00 yuan/kilogram [4]. Market Outlook - Overseas geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties have eased, with the cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia taking effect. US tariff policies are gradually being determined, and the US economic data shows resilience, with the July Dallas Fed business activity index at 0.9, higher than expected and the previous value [2]. - The Fed's July interest - rate meeting is expected to have a dovish stance, and there is a possibility of an unexpected interest - rate cut. International silver prices tend to be strong when the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are gradually released [3]. Data Statistics - The report provides detailed data on gold and silver, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and their changes and historical quantiles in different markets (COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc.) [6]. - It also presents various data charts, such as the relationship between gold and silver prices and the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volumes, and the near - far month structure of gold and silver futures [8][11][21].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices rebounded slightly from $3320, filling the short position gap at the start of the week, supported by a temporary weakening of the dollar due to investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting [1] - The optimistic trade atmosphere between the US and Europe, along with easing tensions in US-China and US-Japan relations, has reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, leading to a market characterized by oscillation [1] - Current gold prices are at a crossroads of macroeconomic dynamics and technical adjustments, with the Federal Reserve's policy uncertainty prompting a brief return to gold for safety, while global trade optimism limits upward movement [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The weekly chart shows a significant upper shadow of $102, indicating potential bearish trends if the upward shadow continues in July [3] - The price is expected to face resistance at the $3350 level, which is crucial for determining the short-term market direction, with potential downward targets at $3245 and $3120 [3] - The overall strategy suggests a focus on short positions during rebounds, with key resistance at $3350-$3360 and support at $3320-$3310 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - US crude oil futures rose by $0.22 to $65.38 per barrel, while Brent crude increased slightly to $68.66 per barrel, despite previous declines to a three-week low [4] - The market is currently digesting the potential supply increase from Venezuela, which may exert additional pressure on prices if the US allows the country to resume oil exports [4] - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $65 and $68, with attention on the outcomes of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates a mid-term upward trend testing near $78, but the subjective direction appears to be downward [5] - Short-term trends show resistance at $66.70, with expectations of a weak rebound followed by a continued downward movement [5] - The strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds, with resistance at $67.0-$68.0 and support at $63.5-$62.5 [5]

今日周一(7月28日)欧盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于38.29一线下方，今日开盘于38.04美元/盎司，截至发稿，伦敦银暂报 38.27美元/盎司，上涨0.32%，最高触及38.32美元/盎司，最低下探38.03美元/盎司，目前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看 涨走势。 本周投资者将聚焦美联储货币政策决议，以及美国非农、GDP等重量级数据，预计将引发本周市场大行情。 北京时间周四02:00，美联储将公布利率决议；北京时间周四02:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开货币政策新闻发布会。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 伦敦银上周收十字星，刺破前高，回踩5周均线，RSI位于高位，波段整体趋势仍偏强。周五深度跳水，失守10日均线， 日线RSI延续回落，4小时一度刺破38关口，呈头肩顶，38.5下方可维持高空思路。下方关注37.80美元或37.40美元支 撑，上方关注38.45美元或38.70美元阻力。 【要闻速递】 根据芝加哥商品交易所的"美联储观察工具"，市场认为7月份降息的可能性几乎为零，9月份再次保持利率不变的可能性 约为40%，高于一个月前的约10%。因此，投资者将仔细研究声明的措辞和美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上的讲 话，以 ...

"老师我亏损了，套单了，行情会涨吗？会跌吗？我该怎么办？"每一天我总能遇到无数的投资者询问这些 问题，或者是一个人操作导致的亏损，也或是有指导老师导致的亏损. 小时线上多空的轮转比较明显，前三天还是走的上行趋势通道，而后两天直接回吐所以涨幅重新构筑了新 的下行通道出来，那么3350这个位置就是我们今天继续看空的关键点位，毕竟4小时和日线都是跌破了我 们的关键支撑，那么转换思路看空就是必然了！ 本周除美联储外，加拿大央行也将于周三召开货币政策会议，预计将维持利率不变，日本央行则将在周三 晚些时候召开会议。 周二：美国消费者信心指数周三：ADP就业数据，美国初步GDP，加拿大央行货币政策决定，美国成屋签 约销售，美联储货币政策决定，日本央行货币政策决定 周四：美国PCE物价指数，每周初请失业金人数，周五：美国非农就业报告，ISM制造业PMI 对于今天黄金走势的看法！ 黄金上周五出乎所有人的预料，延续弱势下跌，触及我们上周说到的4小时趋势线3335一线之后直接下跌 走弱，那么对于目前的趋势上来看，趋势偏空无反弹，那么弱势就将还会持续，只有跌幅到一定的位置筑 底之后才会有买盘的进场，而本周初则延续看空即可！ 但殊归通 ...