《五一假期消费强劲，汇率升值提升 宽松货币政策预期》 - 2025.05.06 宏观观点 发布时间：2025-05-09 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 等待更清晰的信号——5 月美联储议息会议点评 l 核心观点 美联储在今日凌晨的 FOMC 会议上决定继续维持联邦基金利率目 标区间在 4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期，各类资产反应平淡。 鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上强调，尽管存在较高的不确定性，美 国经济仍然稳健。失业率保持在较低水平，通胀虽已大幅下降，但仍 略高于美联储 2%的长期目标。虽然第一季度 GDP 数据出现小幅下滑， 但这主要反映了净出口的波动，很可能是因为企业"抢进口"导致。 排除净出口、库存投资及政府支出的私人国内最终购买(PDFP)在第一 季度仍以稳健的 3%的速度增长，与去年的增速持平。 如果用一个词来概括本场发布会鲍威尔的核心观点，那就是"等 待观察"。鲍威尔认为， ...

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis of Spot Gold - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with differing opinions on potential rate cuts within the year, which could enhance gold's value preservation demand [2] - Strong U.S. employment data may raise inflation concerns, supporting gold prices; however, March core PCE data showed a slowdown in inflation, leading to a more cautious monetary policy from the Fed [2] - Economic data from major economies like China will also impact physical demand for gold and global capital flows [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment - Escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East have heightened market risk aversion, driving funds into gold and supporting its price [3] - Fluctuations in global financial markets and unpredictable trade policies have led investors to seek refuge in gold, pushing prices higher [3] - The interplay of Fed monetary policy, economic data, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment collectively influences gold prices, with a potential short-term target of $3,500 per ounce if dovish Fed statements and worsening geopolitical situations persist [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Spot Gold - The spot gold market initially broke through the key resistance level of $3,399, reaching an intraday peak of $3,414.79, but subsequently reversed direction [4] - After a brief consolidation, gold prices fell to the target level of $3,322, achieving a notable profit margin of $42 [4] - Current technical indicators suggest a dominant bearish trend, with short-term moving averages suppressing long-term averages, indicating a high likelihood of continued downward movement [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Spot Silver - The spot silver market showed expected behavior, rebounding to $33.750 before retreating to a low of $32.295, where signs of stabilization emerged [6] - The short-term chart indicates a prevailing bearish trend, with short-term moving averages consistently crossing below long-term averages [6] - Suggested trading strategy includes waiting for silver prices to rebound to the resistance level of $32.660 for a short position, with a stop-loss set at $32.960 and a profit target at $32.240 [6]

CNBC称，谈及鲍威尔"不想降息"，特朗普对记者说，"我认为他不想这么做，可能是他不爱我。我觉 得没关系，这是个疯狂的理由，但生活就是这样"。 此前，美联储当地时间7日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25% 至4.50%之间不变。这是自今年1月和3月会议以来，美联储连续第三次不降息。美联储在会后发表声明 说，近几个月来失业率稳定在较低水平，劳动力市场状况依然稳固，但通货膨胀仍"一定程度上处于高 位"。美联储认为，经济前景的不确定性"进一步增加"。美联储还表示，"失业率上升和通胀加剧的风险 有所增加"，这是此前声明中没有的内容，体现出美联储对最新美国经济形势的担忧。 美国广播公司提到，在美联储维持利率不变的前几周，白宫敦促美联储降息，并扬言要解雇鲍威尔。随 后，特朗普软化了此前对鲍威尔的抨击，虽表示在明年任期结束前不会解雇他，但仍一再重申对目前利 率水平的不满，并敦促其尽快降息。 当地时间7日议息会议后，当被问到美国总统要求降息的问题时，鲍威尔对白宫的批评"不屑一顾"。他 警告称，"如果已宣布的大幅提高关税措施持续下去，可能会导致通胀上升、经济增长放缓和失业率上 升"。他还表示， ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market saw a collective rise on May 8, with the Nasdaq index increasing by over 1%, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 rising by 0.62% and 0.58% respectively, driven by President Trump's call for citizens to "buy stocks" and a new trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. [1] - The U.S.-U.K. trade agreement includes key concessions in the automotive, agricultural, and industrial sectors, with specific tariffs set for U.K. car exports and the complete removal of U.S. tariffs on U.K. steel and aluminum products [1] - Boeing announced a $10 billion order for wide-body aircraft from a U.K. airline, boosting confidence in the industrial sector and contributing to a more than 4% increase in Boeing's stock price [1] Group 2 - Major tech stocks, including Tesla and Nvidia, were central to the market's rise, with both seeing increases of over 3%, influenced by expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - The U.S. core PCE price index for January fell to 2.6%, the lowest since June 2024, leading to a decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and reinforcing bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [2] - Trump's previous calls to "buy stocks" have historically led to short-term market spikes, but the long-term effects have often resulted in market corrections [3] Group 3 - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of the current market rally, as corporate earnings growth is slowing while valuations remain high, particularly among major tech companies [3] - The delayed effects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift are becoming apparent, with high federal funds rates potentially increasing corporate financing costs and impacting tech companies' capital expenditures [3] - Global geopolitical risks and supply chain restructuring are expected to impact multinational companies' earnings, with the U.S.-U.K. trade agreement potentially exacerbating trade tensions with European allies [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current expectations of the Fed's monetary policy and the release of overseas tariff risks are short - term negative factors for precious metal prices. However, from the perspective of the expansion process of the US fiscal deficit, the medium - term upward driving force for gold prices remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the price to show a significant correction and then go long on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 767 - 836 yuan/gram. Against the background of the Fed's hawkish monetary policy stance, silver prices will be weak. Currently, the silver price is still in a wide - range shock range. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday short - selling on rallies. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 7804 - 8380 yuan/kg [2][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 1.81% to 786.42 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 0.12% to 8154.00 yuan/kg; COMEX Gold rose 0.41% to 3319.40 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.01% to 32.62 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.37%, and the US dollar index was reported at 100.64 [2] - The closing prices, previous trading day prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various precious metal products such as Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc. are presented in detail in the report [4] Market Outlook - US President Trump announced that the US will reach a trade agreement with the UK, canceling tariffs in some areas and expanding the mutual access scope of products between the two countries. German President Merz and Trump agreed to quickly resolve trade disputes, resulting in a phased release of overseas trade risks, which is a short - term negative factor for gold prices [2] - The US labor market data remains resilient. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending May 3 was 228,000, lower than the expected 230,000 and the previous value of 241,000. The Fed's monetary policy stance in the recent interest - rate meeting was hawkish. Powell believes that multiple uncertainties support the Fed to "wait", and all committee members support this, and Trump's request for a rate cut will not affect the Fed's work [2] Key Data of Gold and Silver - For gold, COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 1.84% to 3310.40 US dollars/ounce, trading volume increased by 8.74% to 300,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 2.90% to 451,900 lots. LBMA gold's closing price decreased by 1.18% to 3352.30 US dollars/ounce. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 1.58% to 790.78 yuan/gram, trading volume increased by 18.20% to 882,000 lots, and open interest increased by 2.15% to 455,600 lots. Au(T + D)'s closing price decreased by 1.42% to 787.53 yuan/gram, trading volume increased by 44.55% to 97.67 tons, and open interest increased by 1.71% to 216.40 tons [6] - For silver, COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.02% to 32.61 US dollars/ounce, open interest increased by 3.91% to 152,700 lots, and inventory increased by 0.27% to 15,639 tons. LBMA silver's closing price decreased by 1.35% to 32.43 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 1.91% to 8,094.00 yuan/kg, trading volume increased by 41.45% to 1,350,800 lots, and open interest increased by 3.63% to 883,000 lots. Ag(T + D)'s closing price decreased by 1.57% to 8,100.00 yuan/kg, trading volume increased by 50.18% to 663.98 tons, and open interest decreased by 3.78% to 3,362.624 tons [6] Price Structure and Spread - The report presents the near - far month structure of COMEX gold, Shanghai Gold, COMEX silver, and Shanghai Silver, as well as the spreads between London Gold - COMEX gold, London Silver - COMEX silver, SHFE - COMEX, and SGE - LBMA for both gold and silver [18][20][31][38][50]

光大理解，当前关税仅冲击软性指标，尚未损伤硬性数据，美联储势必要对货币政策保持鹰派口径，捍 卫美联储独立性，方能稳定通胀预期。但是，鲍威尔连续在3月和5月FOMC会议后表态，关税对通胀 是"暂时的"冲击，其实也暗含了其在"滞"与"胀"中间，其更加关注通胀一次性抬升后，对于经济和就业 数据的冲击。 年内来看，预计美联储依然存在2-3次的降息空间，重要的触发因素包括消费和就业数据快速恶化、美 国企业债券出现尾部风险、债务上限通过后财政部开启集中发行美债，阶段性放大美债供给压力，或均 需要美联储做出行动予以配合。 风险提示：美国通胀上行速度超预期，经济下行速度超预期，国际贸易冲突加剧。 智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研究报告称，美联储第三次暂停降息，声明强调经济面临更大的不确 定性，基本符合市场预期。鲍威尔连续在3月和5月FOMC会议后的表态暗含了其更加关注通胀一次性抬 升后，对于经济和就业数据的冲击。年内来看，预计美联储依然存在2-3次的降息空间，重要的触发因 素包括消费和就业数据快速恶化、美国企业债券出现尾部风险、债务上限通过后财政部开启集中发行美 债，阶段性放大美债供给压力，或均需要美联储做出行动予以配合。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting where rates remain unchanged [1] - The Fed's statement indicates that while the U.S. economy remains strong, uncertainties regarding economic outlook have increased, with rising risks of unemployment and inflation [1][2] - Current policy rates are considered restrictive, and the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of tariffs on its dual mandate of achieving full employment and price stability [2] Group 2 - Experts suggest that if tariffs lead to a one-time price shock resulting in economic slowdown and rising unemployment, the Fed may consider significant rate cuts [2] - The Fed is expected to maintain its policy independence and focus on inflation until there is clear evidence of economic weakness, with a low probability of rate cuts in June [2][3] - Recent economic data, including a preliminary report showing a -0.3% annualized GDP growth rate for Q1 2025, reflects increasing downward pressure on the U.S. economy [2]

"滞"与"胀"之间，美联储继续选择按兵不动。当地时间5月7日，美联储委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至 4.5%之间不变。这是自今年1月和3月会议以来，美联储连续第三次决定维持利率不变。对于总统特朗普催促降息的呼声，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，"根本不 会影响我们的工作"。鲍威尔强调，美联储仍不急于降息，未来也不会用提前降息的方式来应对经济下行风险。 22次提及"等待" 这也是自特朗普4月初宣布开征"对等关税"以来，美联储首次召开货币政策会议。去年12月以来，美联储的政策利率一直保持不变。今年初重返白宫以来， 特朗普曾多次施压美联储降息，抨击鲍威尔，甚至一度扬言"如果我想让他走人，他很快就得走"。 在当天下午举行的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔逾20次提及"关税"一词。鲍威尔表示，委员会注意到消费者情绪方面的变化，人们对关税带来的冲击感到担忧，担 心价格可能上升。但他补充说，这种冲击尚未真正显现在经济数据上。 鲍威尔还表示，特朗普政府的新政策仍在不断演变中，其对经济的影响仍然"高度不确定"。他表示，通胀的影响可能是短暂的，但也可能会"更加持久"。面 对这种不确定性，鲍威尔22次提及 ...

9棉期新闻 深夜有料 | 22次谈及"等 待"，鲍威尔到底在怕啥? 扫码看新闻 北京时间5月8日凌晨结束的5月美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）议息会议上，美联储如期"按兵不 动"，维持基准利率在4.25~4.5%水平，为其连续第三次会议维持利率不变。 纵观整场会议，美联储认为"经济增长的不确定性进一步上升"，措辞相较3月进一步加重，同时认为失 业率和通胀双双上行的滞胀风险正在逐步增加，会议表态略偏"鹰派"。 在随后美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会上，"观望"一词被提及11次，"等待"共提到了22次，"关税"一词 则被提及超过20次。鲍威尔表示，特朗普政府的新政策仍在不断演变中，其对经济的影响仍然"高度不 确定"。如果已宣布的大幅提升关税持续实施，可能会导致通胀上升、经济增长放缓以及失业率上升。 这意味着美联储认为，在巨大的政策不确定性面前，观望等待或是当前的最优解，排除了预防式降息的 可能。 全球降息浪潮下 鲍威尔到底在怕啥？ 相比上次会议，此次美联储的会议声明淡化了净出口分项对于美国经济增长的负面影响，仍然强调美国 经济处于稳健的扩张状态。 但不可忽视的是，诸多数据已显示出美国经济增长的隐忧。关税政策的反噬作 ...

2025 年 5 月 8 日 总量研究 美联储短期强硬，下半年或更为主动 ——2025 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 相关研报 美联储将如何步入特朗普时代？ ——2024 年 11 月 FOMC 会议点评 （2024-11-08） 美联储后续降息路径如何演绎？——2024 年 9 月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-09-20） 美联储降息窗口逐步临近——2024 年 7 月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-08-01） 为什么我们认为9月有望降息？——2024年 6 月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-06-13） 美联储整体偏鸽，9 月是降息关键窗口 ——2024 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评 （2024-05-04） 核心观点： 美联储第三次暂停降息，声明强调经济面临更大的不确定性，基本符合市场预期。 鲍威尔在发布会上多次强调当前需要等待和观察，并表 ...