南华外汇专题 ——从"十四五"到"十五五"的新一轮五年市场择时（上篇） 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年10月23日 引言 五年规划作为中国治国理政的重要工具，自1953年首个五年计划实施以来，始终是国家战略的核心载 体。从计划经济时期的指令性规划到市场经济条件下的战略导向型规划，五年规划不仅见证了中国经济体制 的深刻变革，更成为推动国家现代化进程的关键力量。 对于投资者而言，深入理解五年规划的内涵、演进逻辑及其对资本市场，特别是对期货市场的影响，是 进行前瞻性资产配置的必修课。因此，本文将通过系统梳理五年规划的历史演进、决策机制、实施成效及未 来趋势等多个角度，为理解国家战略提供全景式分析。在文章上篇，我们会更注重从历史的角度进行回溯， 梳理不同历史阶段五年规划的目标设定、内容侧重与实施路径，剖析其如何根据国家发展实际需求调整方 向，清晰呈现五年规划与国家发展历程的深度绑定的演变情况。下篇部分将聚焦于新一轮五年规划下，我们 对未来市场发展机遇的展望，特别是对期货市场方面。 正文 一、五年规划的中国意义 1.1 为什么要关注五年规划 1、国 ...

中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议于10月20日至23日在北京召开。国际人士认为，中国科学制定和接续实施"五年规 划"，为世界发展带来诸多机遇。巴西企业家André在接受中新社记者采访时表示，中国长期以来保持政策的连贯性，因此能够从战略 层面明确当前不同地区的发展重点。中国民众对不同地方的人都很友好，外来创业者有诸多机会在这里实现自身价值。印度学者Kumar Loganathan告诉记者，过去五年，中国政府大力支持绿色产业的发展，这不仅使中国自身获益，发展成果也跨越国界惠及到了周边国 家。(记者 谢龙飞 北京报道） ...

Group 1 - China's economy is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, contributing around 30% to global economic growth [1][2] - The establishment of the G60 Science and Technology Innovation Corridor in the Yangtze River Delta has transformed the area into a hub for research, manufacturing, logistics, and services, with an expected economic output of 9 trillion yuan by 2024 [5][6] - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of centralized leadership in economic planning and execution, which has been a key factor in the country's ability to implement long-term strategies effectively [2][4][6] Group 2 - The relocation of state-owned enterprises like China Huaneng Group and China Sinochem Holdings to Xiong'an New Area signifies a strategic move to enhance urban development and economic vitality in the region [1] - The successful implementation of the five-year planning system in China has been highlighted as a unique advantage, allowing for consistent and effective governance [3][4] - The focus on agricultural development, particularly in the apple industry in Yan'an, has significantly improved local livelihoods and created job opportunities for over 800,000 farmers [8][9]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the superiority of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the context of global changes, highlighting China's commitment to high-level opening up and high-quality development, which is expected to contribute around 30% to global economic growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][4] - China's economy is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, with an increase of over 35 trillion yuan in five years, showcasing its role as a "deterministic oasis" in the global economy [1][4] - The article discusses the importance of the centralized leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in ensuring effective governance and economic stability, particularly during critical moments [2][4] Group 2 - The G60 Science and Technology Innovation Corridor in the Yangtze River Delta is highlighted as a successful example of industrial integration, with an economic total expected to reach 9 trillion yuan by 2024, contributing nearly 2.2% to global manufacturing [5][6] - The article notes that the G60 corridor has evolved from a highway into a comprehensive innovation ecosystem, linking research, manufacturing, logistics, and services [5][6] - The CPC's ability to implement long-term planning through five-year plans is presented as a unique advantage, allowing for consistent and effective governance that contrasts with the short-sighted policies of some other countries [3][4] Group 3 - The article illustrates the success of the apple industry in Yan'an, Shaanxi Province, which has transformed a formerly impoverished area into a thriving agricultural hub, benefiting over 800,000 farmers [8][9] - It emphasizes the importance of a people-centered development approach, ensuring that the benefits of economic growth are shared among the population [8][10] - The article concludes that China's socialist system is dynamic and effective, capable of driving high-quality development while contributing to global progress [10]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes China's commitment to high-level opening up and high-quality development, projecting its economy to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, contributing around 30% to global economic growth [1][2][4] - The establishment of the G60 Science and Technology Innovation Corridor in the Yangtze River Delta is highlighted, showcasing a collaborative industrial chain that integrates research, manufacturing, logistics, and services, with an expected economic output of 9 trillion yuan by 2024 [5][6] - The article discusses the successful implementation of the five-year planning system in China, which has become a distinctive feature of its governance, allowing for strategic long-term economic planning and stability [3][4][6] Group 2 - The article mentions the relocation of state-owned enterprises, such as China Huaneng Group and China Sinochem Holdings, to Xiong'an New Area, indicating a strategic move to enhance urban development and economic vitality [1][2] - The focus on agricultural development, particularly the apple industry in Yan'an, is presented as a model for poverty alleviation and job creation, benefiting over 800,000 farmers [7][8] - China's role in global cooperation is underscored, with initiatives in agriculture and renewable energy aimed at supporting developing countries, thereby enhancing mutual growth and stability [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's commitment to high-quality development and its role as a significant contributor to global economic growth, projecting a GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, with a contribution rate of around 30% to world economic growth [1]. Group 1: Economic Development - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's economy is expected to surpass 140 trillion yuan, with an incremental growth of over 35 trillion yuan in five years [1]. - The article highlights the importance of the centralized leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in ensuring stable economic governance and effective implementation of long-term strategies [2][4]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Innovation - The G60 Science and Technology Innovation Corridor in the Yangtze River Delta has evolved into a significant innovation hub, contributing nearly 2.2% to global manufacturing by 2024, with an economic total of 9 trillion yuan [5]. - The article discusses the advantages of China's socialist system in concentrating resources to achieve breakthroughs in various sectors, including technology and infrastructure [6]. Group 3: Agricultural Development - The apple industry in Yan'an, a former poverty-stricken area, has become a model for poverty alleviation, benefiting over 800,000 farmers and creating job opportunities for more than 1 million people [8][9]. - The article underscores the importance of a people-centered development approach, ensuring that the benefits of economic growth are shared equitably among the population [9][10]. Group 4: Global Perspective - China's approach to modernization is characterized by peaceful development and a commitment to global cooperation, aiming to contribute to a stable and prosperous world [10][11]. - The article asserts that China's unique socialist system is vital for its high-quality development and its contributions to global civilization [11].

Core Viewpoint - The formulation and continuous implementation of the Five-Year Plan is a significant experience in governance and a key political advantage of socialism with Chinese characteristics [1] Group 1 - The Five-Year Plan is considered an important experience in the governance of the country [1] - It serves as a crucial political advantage for the socialist system in China [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jeffrey Sachs, a professor at Columbia University, emphasizes the instability of U.S. President Trump's policies compared to China's long-term planning approach, such as the five-year plans [2] Group 1 - Sachs expresses hope that the U.S. will adopt a long-term perspective and engage in diplomatic interactions and negotiations with China [2] - He criticizes the U.S. for its unilateralism and erratic actions, contrasting it with China's consistent policy-making [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of five-year plans in guiding China's economic and social development, highlighting their unique role in the global context [2][3] - The planning process is described as a means to unify thoughts, build consensus, and form common goals among various stakeholders, including the government, enterprises, and citizens [3][4] - Effective planning requires deep engagement with grassroots communities to gather insights and ensure broad participation in setting agendas, goals, and designs [4] Group 2 - For the "15th Five-Year Plan," it is crucial for local departments to align with the strategic guidance provided by the leadership and to build on the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5] - The planning must be forward-looking, taking into account domestic and international trends, and should aim for the long-term goal of achieving modernization by 2035 [5] - Implementation is highlighted as the key to the plan's effectiveness, necessitating the establishment of responsibility systems and evaluation mechanisms to enhance the authority and seriousness of the planning [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the journey of Chinese modernization, highlighting the interaction between national strategies and global changes, and the challenges faced during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, while underscoring the importance of high-quality development and strategic reforms to navigate uncertainties in both domestic and international contexts [1][2][3]. Economic Growth and Structure - From 2012 to 2024, China's GDP is projected to grow from 54 trillion yuan to nearly 135 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 6% [2] - China's share of the global economy increased from 11.3% to 17.1%, with GDP growth nearly double the global average [2] - The country has improved its global innovation index ranking to 10th and its soft power ranking to 2nd, surpassing the UK for the first time [2] Development Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on high-quality development as a primary task, emphasizing the need for a stable and effective domestic economy to counter international uncertainties [7][8] - The article discusses the importance of balancing investments in both physical and human capital to enhance economic growth potential [12] Reform and Innovation - The article highlights the need for deepening reforms to address unbalanced and insufficient development, with a focus on practical measures for high-quality growth [4] - Emphasis is placed on technological innovation as a strategic support for national development, aiming to build a self-reliant and secure industrial supply chain [11] Global Engagement - The article advocates for a high level of openness to inject new momentum into the global economy, focusing on investment, trade, finance, and innovation [8] - It stresses the importance of strategic positioning for different regions in China to foster coordinated development and leverage local strengths [13]