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招银国际每日投资策略-20260401
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-04-01 05:12
Macro Commentary - China's manufacturing PMI rebounded significantly in March, partly due to the later and longer Spring Festival holiday in 2026, although it remains in a contraction state based on the three-month moving average. Both supply and demand have improved significantly, with inventory cycles and import/export orders showing recovery [2] - The non-manufacturing PMI slightly increased, indicating a return to expansion in the service sector, while the construction sector remains in contraction. The price indices for both manufacturing and services suggest that upstream input inflation may lead to a positive PPI in the coming months [2] - The overall resilience of the RMB is maintained, fluctuating around 6.9 against the USD despite a strong dollar backdrop [4] Company Analysis Sunny Optical Technology (2382 HK) - The company is expected to achieve a revenue and net profit growth of 21% and 85% year-on-year in the second half of 2025, reaching RMB 23.6 billion and RMB 3 billion respectively. The net profit aligns with previous positive forecasts and exceeds market consensus by 44% due to a one-time investment gain from GoerTek [5] - Management guidance for 2026 indicates revenue and net profit growth of no less than 7% each, driven by a 5-10% increase in smartphone revenue and a 60% increase in IoT revenue, offsetting weakness in XR business [5] Yongda Automobile (3669 HK) - The company anticipates a significant impairment in 2025, with revenue expected to decline by 15% to RMB 27.5 billion in the second half of 2025, leading to a historical low overall gross margin of 7.0%. A total impairment of approximately RMB 4.9 billion is expected, resulting in a net loss of RMB 1.7 billion in the second half of 2025 [5] - Management plans to close 15-20 stores in 2026, with most related asset impairments already accounted for in 2025, suggesting no major impairments in 2026 [6] Sanofi Pharmaceutical (1530 HK) - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of RMB 17.7 billion in 2025, a 94.3% year-on-year increase, primarily due to a RMB 9.4 billion licensing income from Pfizer. However, product sales are expected to decline by 10.3% to RMB 8 billion due to national procurement policies [7] - The company is expected to maintain high levels of R&D investment to accelerate pipeline progress, with significant clinical advancements anticipated from the collaboration with Pfizer [8] Kanglong Chemical (300759 CH) - The company reported a 14.8% year-on-year revenue growth to RMB 14.1 billion in 2025, with adjusted net profit increasing by 13.0% to RMB 1.82 billion, both exceeding previous forecasts [10] - Management expects a revenue growth of 12-18% in 2026, with currency fluctuations negatively impacting growth guidance by 3 percentage points [11] Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) - The company reported a strong FY25 performance with a revenue growth of 60% to RMB 38.2 billion and a net profit increase of 109% to RMB 10.8 billion, aligning with market expectations [14] - The gross margin improved significantly from 34.7% in FY24 to 42.6% in FY25, driven by strong shipments of high-speed optical modules and an increase in the proportion of silicon photonics products [14] OmniVision Technologies (603501 CH) - The company achieved a revenue growth of 12.1% to RMB 28.9 billion in FY25, with a net profit increase of 21.7% to RMB 4 billion, although slightly below market expectations [15] - The gross margin improved from 29.4% in FY24 to 30.6% in FY25, primarily due to the optimization of CIS product structure and increased contributions from automotive CIS revenue [15]
奥比中光:3D视觉龙头,打造中华之光-20260401
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2026-04-01 04:35
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in 3D vision technology, with a comprehensive layout across six major product tracks in 3D visual perception technology [4][12]. - The company has achieved a strong financial turnaround, with projected revenues of CNY 564 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 56.8%, and a net profit of CNY 1.08 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a significant improvement [4][19]. - The company maintains a concentrated shareholding structure, with the actual controller holding 27.15% of shares, which supports strategic collaboration with Ant Group [4][29]. Company Overview - The company has developed a full-stack product capability from sensors to application devices, making it one of the few suppliers capable of providing complete 3D visual solutions [4][12]. - The company has established a robust ecosystem through strategic partnerships with major global tech firms, including Microsoft and NVIDIA, and has a dominant market share in the domestic service robot sector [4][7]. - The company is focused on high-demand industries and emphasizes technological research and development, with a strong commitment to innovation and product performance upgrades [4][22]. Industry Analysis - The 3D vision technology industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the global 3D imaging and sensing market expected to expand from USD 8.2 billion in 2022 to USD 17.2 billion by 2028 [7][34]. - The industry is transitioning from industrial applications to consumer electronics, AIoT, and autonomous driving, indicating a broadening of market applications [7][34]. - The 3D vision technology provides critical three-dimensional data that is driving comprehensive upgrades across various industries, including consumer electronics, XR, and robotics [7][34]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of CNY 941 million in 2025 and CNY 1.6 billion in 2026, with net profits expected to reach CNY 300 million in 2026 and CNY 460 million in 2027 [2][4]. - The projected net profit margins are expected to improve significantly, with a net profit margin of 15.08% anticipated in 2025 [4][19]. - The company is expected to maintain a high level of research and development investment, with R&D expenses projected to be CNY 2.04 billion in 2024, accounting for 36.2% of revenue [22].
安徽建工:2025年归母净利润同增13.5%,单Q4同增87.3%。-20260401
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [4][10]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 increased by 13.5%, with a significant growth of 87.3% in Q4 alone. The total revenue for 2025 was 83.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.8% year-on-year [3][5]. - The company signed new contracts worth 166.54 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The target profit for 2026 is projected to increase by 10.05% [6][7]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the gross profit margin was 14.8%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 1.8%, up by 0.4 percentage points. The weighted ROE was 9.1%, down by 1.3 percentage points [5]. - The operating cash flow for 2025 was 1.29 billion yuan, compared to 1.21 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [5]. Contract and Revenue Growth - The new contracts signed in 2025 included 1,626.08 billion yuan in engineering construction, with infrastructure projects contributing 1,225.27 billion yuan, a 2.5% increase year-on-year. Notably, the highway and bridge sector saw a 17% increase [6][19]. - The company aims for a revenue target of 90 billion yuan in 2026, representing an 8.18% year-on-year growth [7]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The proposed dividend payout ratio for 2025 is 30.4%, with a current dividend yield of 4.8% [7][8]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 7.6 yuan, based on a projected PE ratio of 8 times for 2026 [4][10].
8点1氪:Patagonia客服回应收取“地球使用费”;美国佛罗里达州一机场更名为“唐纳德·特朗普国际机场”;清明节有商家推出AI大模型纸扎
36氪· 2026-04-01 03:33
Group 1 - Patagonia has introduced a "Earth Usage Fee" policy on its Tmall flagship store, requiring consumers to prepay a logistics packaging fee of 15 yuan for the first item and 5 yuan for each additional item, aimed at reducing the environmental impact of online shopping [2] - The fee is non-refundable if the item is returned, and the deducted amount will be donated to environmental projects, with the policy set to be trialed for one month starting April 1 [2] - The customer service clarified that this fee is akin to not offering free shipping, and if the item is not returned, the shipping fee can be refunded [2] Group 2 - Florida's Palm Beach International Airport has been renamed "Donald Trump International Airport" following a bill signed by Governor Ron DeSantis, with the name change reflecting Trump's influence in the state [3][5] - The airport's proximity to Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate has been noted, and the name change has faced opposition from Democratic lawmakers [5] - This renaming is part of a broader trend of Trump's name appearing on various national symbols, including a recent decision by the U.S. Treasury to print his signature on dollar bills [5] Group 3 - Apple confirmed that its "Lockdown Mode," introduced in 2022, has not been breached by any commercial spyware, highlighting its effectiveness in protecting users from targeted attacks [4] - The mode significantly restricts device functionality to minimize attack surfaces, including blocking most types of message attachments and disabling complex web technologies [4] - Apple has issued warnings to users in over 15 countries regarding potential targeted attacks since the feature's launch [4] Group 4 - Delta Airlines announced a significant increase in domestic fuel surcharges, with fees for flights under 800 kilometers rising from 10 yuan to 60 yuan, and those over 800 kilometers increasing from 20 yuan to 120 yuan, although this notice was later retracted [9] - The Shanghai district has implemented a "housing acquisition and replacement" model to alleviate rental pressure for new citizens and young people, marking a significant step in optimizing housing resource allocation [9] Group 5 - Oracle is undergoing a substantial layoff, affecting thousands of employees, as part of a restructuring effort [10] - The company currently employs approximately 162,000 staff members, indicating a significant impact on its workforce [10] Group 6 - OpenAI has completed a funding round raising $122 billion, achieving a valuation of $852 billion, which is the largest funding round to date for the company [22] - The funds will be allocated towards investments in chips, data centers, and talent acquisition [22] Group 7 - "Ming Ming is Busy" reported a revenue of 66.17 billion yuan for 2025, marking a 68.20% increase year-on-year, with a profit of 2.329 billion yuan, up 180.9% [18] - Miniso announced a total revenue of 21.44 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 26.2% year-on-year growth, with a gross profit margin of 45.0% [19] - Lenovo Holdings reported a net profit of 9.799 billion yuan for 2025, representing a 28% increase [20]
国新证券每日晨报-20260401
Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3891.86 points, down 0.8% [1][9] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13478.06 points, down 1.81%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 2.7% [1][4] - Out of 30 sectors, 27 saw declines, with coal, electronics, and basic chemicals leading the losses; only home appliances, banks, and food & beverage sectors recorded gains [1][10] Overseas Market Overview - The US stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 2.49%, S&P 500 up 2.91%, and Nasdaq up 3.83% [2][4] - Notable gainers included Caterpillar, which rose over 6%, and Nvidia, which increased by more than 5% [2][4] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) returned to the expansion zone in March, with manufacturing PMI at 50.4%, non-manufacturing PMI at 50.1%, and composite PMI at 50.5%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.4, 0.6, and 1.0 percentage points respectively [3][11] - The recovery in economic sentiment is expected to boost market confidence [10] Trading Activity - On the trading day, 1011 stocks rose while 4378 fell, with 93 remaining unchanged; 111 stocks increased by over 5%, and 375 decreased by more than 5% [10] - The total trading volume for the A-share market was 20059 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][9]
英伟达再投资;Open AI获1220亿美元融资丨科技风向标
Group 1: OpenAI Financing and Growth - OpenAI announced a new financing round, raising $122 billion, with a post-money valuation of $852 billion [2] - OpenAI is the fastest technology platform to reach 10 million users and is expected to become the fastest to reach 1 billion weekly active users [2] - The company's revenue reached $1 billion within a year of launching ChatGPT, with current monthly revenue at $2 billion, growing four times faster than companies like Alphabet and Meta [2] Group 2: Huawei's Financial Performance - Huawei's 2025 annual report projects global sales revenue of 880.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 68 billion yuan [4] - The company plans to invest 192.3 billion yuan in R&D, accounting for 21.8% of total revenue, with cumulative R&D investment exceeding 1.382 trillion yuan over the past decade [4] - Huawei's rotating chairman Meng Wanzhou emphasized a focus on high-quality development and strategic consistency [4] Group 3: NVIDIA and Marvell Partnership - NVIDIA and Marvell announced a strategic partnership to connect Marvell to NVIDIA's AI ecosystem through NVLink Fusion [5] - NVIDIA invested $2 billion in Marvell, which will provide customized XPU and compatible vertical scaling networks [5] - The collaboration aims to transform global telecom networks into AI infrastructure, enhancing AI network capabilities [5] Group 4: Apple AI Feature Withdrawal - Apple briefly allowed the "Apple Intelligence and Siri" option on the Chinese version of iPhone, which was quickly removed due to software issues [7] - The company stated that the feature's availability would depend on regulatory approval [7] Group 5: DeepSeek Service Disruptions - DeepSeek experienced service disruptions over three days, affecting web dialogue, app, and API services [8] - The outages lasted approximately 1 hour 48 minutes, 10 hours 13 minutes, and 1 hour 3 minutes, but have since been resolved [8] Group 6: WeRide's Robotaxi Launch - WeRide and Uber launched the first pure unmanned Robotaxi service in Dubai, supported by the Dubai Roads and Transport Authority [9] - Passengers can request rides through the Uber app's "Autonomous" category [9] Group 7: Bilibili Algorithm Change - Bilibili announced the discontinuation of its "Recommended for You" algorithm, replacing it with a new recommendation algorithm starting April 1 [10] Group 8: OPPO and realme Service Integration - OPPO will fully integrate realme into its after-sales service network starting April 1, 2026, maintaining existing service rights for realme users [11] Group 9: Longxin Technology IPO Suspension - Longxin Technology's IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board was suspended due to outdated financial data in its application [12] - The company must update its financial data to proceed with the IPO process [12] Group 10: Tianyue Advanced Strategic Agreements - Tianyue Advanced signed strategic cooperation agreements with four partners to collaborate on the silicon carbide industry chain [13] - The partnership aims to advance projects in electric vehicles, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing [13] Group 11: Galaxy Aerospace IPO Initiation - Galaxy Aerospace has completed IPO counseling registration with the Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau [15] - The company focuses on satellite internet solutions and has achieved mass production capabilities for hundreds of satellites [15] Group 12: Zhongke Aerospace IPO Acceptance - Zhongke Aerospace's IPO application has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, aiming to raise 4.18 billion yuan for developing reusable launch vehicles [16] - The company specializes in commercial rocket development and space economy ventures [16]
安徽建工(600502):2025年归母净利润同增13.5%,单Q4同增87.3%。
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][10]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 increased by 13.5%, with a significant growth of 87.3% in Q4 alone. The total revenue for 2025 was 83.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.8% year-on-year [3][5]. - The company has set a target profit growth of 10.05% for 2026, aiming for a total profit of 3.385 billion yuan [7]. - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of 30.4% for 2025, resulting in a current dividend yield of 4.8% [7]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company signed new contracts worth 166.54 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. The breakdown includes infrastructure contracts of 122.53 billion yuan, with a notable 17.0% increase in highway and bridge contracts [6][19]. - The gross profit margin for 2025 was 14.8%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 1.8%, up by 0.4 percentage points [5]. - The company's operating cash flow for 2025 was 1.29 billion yuan, showing an improvement from 1.21 billion yuan in 2024 [5][8]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is projected to be 0.95 yuan, with a growth rate of 7.3%, and for 2027, it is expected to be 1.01 yuan, with a growth rate of 6.3% [4][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of 90.42 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting an 8.7% increase from 2025 [8]. Market Position - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8 times for 2026, with a target price set at 7.6 yuan [4][10]. - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 9.664 billion yuan [11].
新书 | 杜雨博士新书《养龙虾》在海外12个国家同步发行
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the global simultaneous release of the book "Lobster: OpenClaw and the Era of AI Agents" by Dr. Du Yu, highlighting a new model for the international distribution of Chinese books that eliminates traditional delays and barriers [2][10]. Group 1: Zero-Time Difference Launch - The book's release marks a shift in the overseas distribution of Chinese literature, which traditionally relied on shipping and pre-stocking, often resulting in delays of weeks or months [5]. - The collaboration between China National Publications and Ingram leverages print-on-demand (POD) technology and a global printing network, allowing for local printing and rapid delivery within 3-7 days after an order is placed [5][10]. Group 2: Global Coverage - "Lobster: OpenClaw and the Era of AI Agents" is now available in key regions including North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America, reaching readers through platforms like Amazon and local bookstores [11][12]. - The book's availability in multiple countries signifies a breakthrough in making Chinese AI research and insights accessible to a global audience [11]. Group 3: Promoting Global Sharing of Chinese AI Wisdom - The release of the book is part of the efforts by the Unforeseen AI Research Institute to promote the international dissemination of Chinese AI thought [14]. - The OpenClaw project, as a domestic open-source AI initiative, has garnered significant attention in the global developer community, and the book's release aims to further expand its international reach [14].
联想集团杨元庆宣布:联想要成为一家AI原生公司
Ge Long Hui· 2026-04-01 02:55
Group 1 - Lenovo Group aims to fully transform into an AI-native company, emphasizing that AI is not an additional project but a core component of product design and business processes [1] - The new fiscal year is defined as the "year of AI delivery," with a goal to deliver personal and enterprise intelligent products to customers and establish Lenovo's leading position in the hybrid AI field [1] - Lenovo will begin global shipments of devices equipped with Lenovo Qira this month, and the Tianxi personal super-intelligent system will undergo a new iteration [1] Group 2 - Lenovo plans to explore new forms of AI-native devices, including AI wearable devices represented by Maxwell, PCs and smartphones designed specifically for intelligent systems, and the personal computing hub Kubit [1] - In the enterprise intelligence sector, Lenovo will enhance its AI factory capabilities, covering the entire chain from computing infrastructure, data, models to intelligent systems, and provide lifecycle AI services [1] - The trend of AI inference shifting to local and edge environments is becoming increasingly clear, with AI inference servers and edge-cloud infrastructure being identified as critical battles to win [2] Group 3 - Lenovo's enterprise market will expand its share through the Vector program, while maintaining profitability in the cloud infrastructure market with an ODM+ model and aggressively expanding into the GPU data center market [2] - The year 2026 is set to be a significant year for Lenovo's marketing and branding, with plans to participate as an official technology partner in the FIFA World Cup and engage in 22 global F1 Grand Prix events to enhance brand international influence [2]
中泰期货晨会纪要-20260401
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro and Financial Markets**: For stock index futures, it is advisable to wait and see regarding the US - Iran situation, and aggressive investors can consider buying on dips. For bond futures, distinguish the impact of funds and fundamentals on bonds and maintain a steep strategy [17]. - **Black Metals**: In the short - term, the black metal market will maintain a volatile trend. Hold the short - wide - straddle strategy for steel and iron ore, and consider shorting on rallies [19]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper prices will fluctuate widely in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle East situation. Zinc and lead are recommended to be observed. Carbonate lithium will fluctuate widely in the short - term. Industrial silicon will continue to fluctuate, and polysilicon will run weakly [26][30][31]. - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton prices will fluctuate at a high level. Sugar prices will be under pressure and fluctuate. Egg prices are temporarily weak before the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and the futures market maintains a bearish view. Apple prices of high - quality goods may be strong. Corn is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. Red dates will fluctuate weakly. Pig futures can be shorted on the near - month contracts [34][37][40][41][42][44][45]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil supply is at risk, and prices will fluctuate. Fuel oil will follow the oil price and fluctuate at a high level. Polyolefin prices have some support but may correct. Rubber should be cautious about going long unilaterally. Synthetic rubber should be cautious about chasing up or down. Methanol should be treated with a bullish and volatile view in the medium - to - long - term and beware of short - term corrections. Caustic soda should be treated with an intraday wide - range volatile view. Asphalt will follow the oil price. PVC may correct, and caution is needed. The polyester industry chain should take profit on previous long positions. LPG may continue to weaken. Pulp should pay attention to port inventory and price increases. Logs may see price increases, and urea should be treated with a volatile view [47][49][50][51][52][53][55][57][58][60][61][62][63][64]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - Diplomatic talks between China and Pakistan on the Middle East situation put forward five initiatives to promote peace [9]. - The US and Iran express willingness to end the war, but there are still uncertainties [9][10]. - The central bank's monetary policy committee holds a quarterly meeting, emphasizing the use of various tools to strengthen monetary policy regulation [10]. - China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indexes return to the expansion range in March [11]. - Huawei's revenue and profit increase in 2025, with different growth rates in different business segments [12]. - The US and Israel attack an Iranian steel factory, and the Kansas Fed warns about the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation [14]. - The eurozone's CPI rises in March, and the European Central Bank may raise interest rates [15]. 3.2 Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares decline, and the market is affected by the US - Iran situation. It is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips [17]. - **Bond Futures**: The inter - bank funds are loose, and the short - term bonds are strong. The long - term bonds are affected by inflation expectations. The strategy is to distinguish the impact of funds and fundamentals and maintain a steep strategy [18]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel and Ore**: Real estate sales are still weak, and infrastructure projects have slow progress. The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils has a certain decline. The supply of steel is expected to increase, and the cost support is weakened. The black metal market will maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [18][19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal is sufficient, and the inventory is high. The production of coking enterprises has increased slightly. The price of coking coal and coke may fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon may see actual production cuts, but it is still in a surplus situation. It is recommended to short on rallies. Silicon iron is also recommended to short on rallies [22]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash is recommended to wait and see, and glass can be bought on dips for the far - month contracts. The market is affected by geopolitical factors and the cold - repair expectation of glass production lines [23]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The Middle East situation has a moderating trend but is still uncertain. The inventory decline supports the copper price, and it will fluctuate widely in the short - term [26]. - **Zinc**: The inventory of zinc ingots decreases slightly, and the price rebounds weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. - **Lead**: The supply of lead is relatively abundant, and the inventory decline slows down. It is recommended to treat it with a volatile view [27]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The export ban on lithium mines in Zimbabwe affects the market. The price will fluctuate widely in the short - term [30]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will continue to fluctuate, and polysilicon will run weakly. The supply and demand of industrial silicon may improve, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are still in a contradiction [31][32]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The price of cotton fluctuates at a high level, affected by energy prices and supply - demand expectations. The global cotton production is expected to decline, and the domestic cotton inventory is in the de - stocking stage [34][35][36]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is under pressure and fluctuates, affected by supply pressure and import cost. There are different views on the global sugar supply surplus [37][38][39]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are temporarily weak before the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and the futures market maintains a bearish view due to high inventory [40]. - **Apples**: High - quality apple prices may be strong, supported by low inventory and replenishment demand [41][42]. - **Corn**: It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. The price is affected by policy grain supply and low inventory [42][43]. - **Red Dates**: Red dates are in the consumption off - season, and the price will fluctuate weakly [44]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is strong, and the demand is weak. The near - month futures contracts can be shorted [45]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The supply of crude oil is at risk due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The prices of international crude oil futures fluctuate [47][48]. - **Fuel Oil**: It will follow the oil price and fluctuate at a high level, and the focus is on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz [49]. - **Plastic**: Polyolefin prices have some support but may correct, and the future trend depends on the end of the war [50]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to be cautious about going long unilaterally, and pay attention to the impact of synthetic rubber and raw material supply [51]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Be cautious about chasing up or down, and pay attention to energy prices and device changes [52]. - **Methanol**: It should be treated with a bullish and volatile view in the medium - to - long - term and beware of short - term corrections. Pay attention to the supply in Iran and port inventory [53][54]. - **Caustic Soda**: It should be treated with an intraday wide - range volatile view, affected by coal prices, supply, and exports [55]. - **Asphalt**: It will follow the oil price, and the demand is in the off - season [57]. - **PVC**: It may correct, and the key is the reduction of ethylene production and the solution of the crude oil supply problem [58][59]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Take profit on previous long positions, and pay attention to geopolitical impacts, device maintenance, and demand recovery [60]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: It may continue to weaken, but the price may be relatively stronger than crude oil. The future depends on the development of the US - Iran situation [61]. - **Paper Pulp**: The port inventory increases, and the import cost decreases. Pay attention to port inventory and price increases [62]. - **Logs**: The price may increase, and pay attention to downstream demand and port arrivals [63]. - **Urea**: It should be treated with a volatile view, and the demand is strong [64][65].