RT Yuyue (@yuyue_chris)不要总觉得自己是强者，是幸运儿。币圈高度达尔文主义，意味着你以为自己是强者的时候总有人比你更强。巨鲸之上有更大的鲸鱼、黑客、漏洞攻击者、交易所，甚至威权组织觉得自己是强者看着无所谓啊，有这种心态也真的要更谨慎一点。遇上这种级别的问题稍有疏忽都容易直接归零，哪怕老手也总有疏忽，善游者溺于水的道理。普通新手和平时风控就不太好的人更得小点心能保持程序上合理正义已经是万幸，这事我觉得最后还是没什么结果，能处理到这一步一边夸一边骂已经达到效果了。很明显领导不觉得这事有问题，不像空投这种事，大手一挥多分出点小钱也就是领导被哄开心了一句话的事，这次的关键在于如果真认错了就等于认下管理系统里存在漏洞可能不如对家的系统了，更不用说如果真的要赔那得赔多少呢？不太可能了只能说很多事很难评，想回本都只能买强的币。亏了的大概率只能认赔，收拾收拾心情钱还是得赚，自己做好风控严格管理仓位守住本金才是最要紧的，任何人和组织都没可能为你的身家性命负责 ...

不要总觉得自己是强者，是幸运儿。币圈高度达尔文主义，意味着你以为自己是强者的时候总有人比你更强。巨鲸之上有更大的鲸鱼、黑客、漏洞攻击者、交易所，甚至威权组织觉得自己是强者看着无所谓啊，有这种心态也真的要更谨慎一点。遇上这种级别的问题稍有疏忽都容易直接归零，哪怕老手也总有疏忽，善游者溺于水的道理。普通新手和平时风控就不太好的人更得小点心能保持程序上合理正义已经是万幸，这事我觉得最后还是没什么结果，能处理到这一步一边夸一边骂已经达到效果了。很明显领导不觉得这事有问题，不像空投这种事，大手一挥多分出点小钱也就是领导被哄开心了一句话的事，这次的关键在于如果真认错了就等于认下管理系统里存在漏洞可能不如对家的系统了，更不用说如果真的要赔那得赔多少呢？不太可能了只能说很多事很难评，想回本都只能买强的币。亏了的大概率只能认赔，收拾收拾心情钱还是得赚，自己做好风控严格管理仓位守住本金才是最要紧的，任何人和组织都没可能为你的身家性命负责 ...

Core Insights - The market's performance after the National Day holiday is crucial for the sentiment in the fourth quarter, with a focus on trading volume and sector movements [1] Market Performance - Pre-holiday trading was cautious, with transaction volume dropping to 2.1 trillion, which may indicate that most funds have exited, leaving behind committed investors [3] - The key indicator for today is whether trading volume can exceed 2.3 trillion; a significant increase would suggest a return of funds into the market [3] Sector Focus - Three main sectors to watch: - Technology growth, particularly semiconductors and humanoid robots, which have seen institutional buying [3] - New energy, with strong performance in batteries and energy storage, supported by favorable overseas policy news [3] - Large financial institutions, especially brokerages, which may lead the market if trading volume increases [3] Trading Strategy - Caution is advised on the first trading day post-holiday due to potential volatility; it is recommended to wait for market stabilization before making moves [3] - Position management is emphasized, suggesting a holding level of 50-60% initially, with a gradual increase to 70% if the index stabilizes above 3830 points [3] Investment Rhythm - The importance of finding the right investment rhythm is highlighted, with a focus on where funds are flowing—whether into technology or undervalued sectors [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - Bill Lipschutz is a renowned forex trader known for his expertise in the foreign exchange market, having started his trading career during his time at Cornell University and later becoming the head of the forex department at Salomon Brothers [2][3] - Lipschutz founded Hathersage Capital Management in 1995, a successful global macro fund that primarily trades G10 currencies, leveraging his extensive experience in forex trading [3] - He gained fame through his appearance in Jack Schwager's "Market Wizards," which features some of the most outstanding trading minds [2][3] Group 2: Early Life and Career - Lipschutz was born and raised in Farmingdale, New York, excelling academically and in mathematics during high school, and he also had a passion for tennis [3] - He inherited a stock portfolio worth $12,000 from his late grandmother, which he liquidated to kickstart his trading career, initially making a profit of $250,000 before facing significant losses due to lack of risk management [3] - During his tenure at Salomon Brothers, he generated approximately $300 million in annual profits for the company and was a key player in the forex trading department [3] Group 3: Notable Trades - One of Lipschutz's significant trades involved a mispriced bond that allowed him to capitalize on the discrepancy between spot and forward exchange rates, resulting in substantial profits [5][6] - He emphasized the importance of seizing opportunities, recounting a trade during a G-7 meeting where he managed to profit significantly despite being on vacation [8][10] - Lipschutz's trading strategies often involved psychological elements, where he would create situations that misled other traders about his positions, leading to profitable outcomes [10] Group 4: Risk Management and Trading Philosophy - Lipschutz advocates for clear risk management practices, emphasizing the importance of understanding current risk/reward dynamics rather than relying on initial assessments [12] - He believes that many traders suffer from overtrading and suggests waiting for optimal trading opportunities, referred to as "fat pitches" [13] - His approach to position sizing involves gradual entry and exit strategies to mitigate risk, ensuring that even if timing is not perfect, the trader is not forced out of the market [12][13] Group 5: Quotes and Wisdom - Lipschutz's insights include the notion that confidence can be distorted during losing streaks, and reducing position sizes can help maintain emotional stability [14] - He stresses that a trader's motivation should not solely be financial, but rather a genuine engagement with the trading process itself [15] - His philosophy highlights the importance of preparation in trading, asserting that most of the work occurs before actual trades are executed [15]

Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market is not a cash machine but a reflection of corporate value, with 90% of retail investors failing to profit during bull markets due to incorrect mindsets [3] - In 2025, the Nasdaq index surpassed 20,000 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index returned to 4,000 points, indicating a significant market recovery [3] Group 2: Stock Selection Principles - Emphasis on buying familiar and strong companies, avoiding speculative "concept stocks" [4] - The semiconductor market is valued at $800 billion, with only leading firms like TSMC likely to benefit long-term [4] - Recommended metrics for stock selection include ROE above 15%, stable gross margins, and ample cash flow [4] Group 3: Risk Management and Positioning - Avoid full investment; maintain 20%-30% cash reserves to manage risk effectively [6] - Historical data shows leveraged investors faced an average loss rate of 50% during market volatility [6] - Implement strict stop-loss rules, selling stocks that decline by 10% [6] Group 4: Technical and Fundamental Analysis - Basic analysis should take precedence over technical indicators, with a focus on company financials and industry trends [7] - Long-term holding strategies are favored over frequent trading, as 90% of returns come from 10% of the time invested [7] Group 5: Common Pitfalls and Continuous Learning - Common pitfalls include following unreliable trading strategies and neglecting macroeconomic factors [9] - Continuous learning and humility are essential, with a focus on reputable sources for market information [9]

情绪管理就是仓位管理Good timingTastePaaaaaassion ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the A-share market have tested investors' nerves and reflected their mixed emotions amid changing economic conditions [2][4]. Group 1: Investor Behavior - Investors, like Ms. Lin, have been actively transferring high-yield time deposits to invest in the stock market, with some even selling properties to raise funds for investment [3][9]. - Ms. Lin reported a floating loss of over 20,000 yuan after transferring 280,000 yuan from a time deposit to buy stocks, highlighting the risks of market volatility [3][6]. - The enthusiasm for new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange has surged, with some stocks seeing first-day price increases exceeding 400% [6]. Group 2: Market Trends - The A-share market experienced significant declines in early September, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.25% and the ChiNext Index falling by 4.25% on September 4 [6][7]. - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully in the face of increased market volatility, rather than blindly chasing trends [4][15]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors like Mr. Wang employ strategies such as "buying low and selling high," focusing on stocks with stable growth potential [10][11]. - Mr. Wang's approach includes maintaining a portion of cash and limiting his reinvestment to a maximum of 50% of his base position, reflecting a cautious investment philosophy [11]. - Ms. Zhang, despite her initial reluctance, re-entered the stock market after observing others' profits, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards equities [13][14]. Group 4: Economic Context - The article discusses the broader economic context, including the impact of currency fluctuations and interest rates on investment decisions, with some investors opting for foreign currency deposits due to higher yields [13][14]. - The expectation of continued government support for the stock market is influencing investor confidence, with some believing that the stock market will mirror past real estate booms [11].

Group 1: Core Insights - The article discusses the current dynamics of the gold market, highlighting the impact of Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical tensions on gold prices [3][4][6] - As of September 2, 2025, domestic gold prices reached 803.84 CNY per gram, reflecting a 1.47% increase, while international gold futures were priced at 3377.2 USD per ounce, indicating sustained investor interest [3][4] - The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is seen as a significant support for gold prices, with a nearly 90% probability of this outcome [3][4] Group 2: Investment Platform Selection - For new investors, choosing a reliable trading platform is crucial, with Hong Kong Gold Sheng Precious Metals Co., Ltd. being highlighted for its regulatory compliance and professional services [4] - The platform supports MT4 & MT5 trading modes, ensuring fast order execution and transparency in transactions, which is essential for risk management [4][6] Group 3: Risk Control Methods - Effective risk control in gold investment involves both technical analysis and position management, with key support and resistance levels identified for gold prices [6][7] - Investors are advised to utilize stop-loss tools provided by trading platforms to mitigate potential losses during market volatility [6][7] Group 4: Investment Education - New investors often confuse futures gold with physical gold, with futures offering leverage but also higher risks, while physical gold is more suited for long-term value retention [7] - The article warns against misleading claims of "high returns with zero risk," emphasizing the need for realistic investment expectations based on macroeconomic data and technical analysis [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of discipline and strategy in investing during a bull market, warning against impulsive decisions driven by market euphoria [3]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Investors should avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term gains, such as buying a fund that has recently surged, as this can lead to losses during market corrections [5][10]. - A systematic investment approach, like dollar-cost averaging, is recommended to mitigate risks and enhance long-term returns [5][10]. - It is crucial to have a clear exit strategy and set target profit levels to avoid losses when the market turns [14][13]. Group 2: Market Behavior - The article highlights that bull markets are characterized by volatility, with prices not moving in a straight line, and investors should be prepared for fluctuations [5][8]. - Past performance of funds does not guarantee future results, and investors should conduct thorough research on fund strategies and risk profiles [8][10]. Group 3: Psychological Aspects - The article warns against the psychological pitfalls of investing, such as becoming overly focused on daily market movements, which can lead to stress and poor decision-making [17][18]. - It stresses that investing should be a part of life, not the entirety of it, encouraging investors to focus on personal growth and family time instead of constantly monitoring investments [18][20]. Group 4: Long-term Perspective - The true wealth gained from investing is not just financial but also the maturity and wisdom acquired through experiences in the market [21]. - Investors are encouraged to approach the market with a mindset of patience and discipline, especially during bull markets, to ensure long-term success [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - "Fixed Income +" funds are hybrid funds that primarily invest in fixed income assets while allocating a smaller portion to equity assets to enhance returns, targeting moderate-risk investors seeking stable growth [1][2] Group 1: Market Development - The "Fixed Income +" fund market experienced significant growth from 2019 to 2021, with the number of products exceeding 1,000 and total assets surpassing 2 trillion yuan by the end of 2021 [1] - In 2022, the market faced challenges due to stock market adjustments, leading to substantial withdrawals from many "Fixed Income +" products as some secondary bond funds experienced drawdowns exceeding 10% [1] - As of 2023, the scale of "Fixed Income +" funds has gradually recovered due to rising bond markets and a rebound in equity markets [1] Group 2: Investor Demand - The primary clientele for "Fixed Income +" funds consists of conservative investors who seek annual returns of 4%-8% to combat inflation and preserve purchasing power [2] - The management of "Fixed Income +" products focuses on two key aspects: enhancing fund net value with low equity positions and controlling drawdowns in varying market conditions [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The foundation of "Fixed Income +" funds lies in fixed income assets, which provide stability through interest income and moderate capital gains, achieved via duration management and credit exploration [2] - The equity component is crucial for success, requiring strict stock selection criteria and position management to sustain absolute returns [3] - Stock selection should prioritize safety margins, focusing on factors such as business models, management quality, growth potential, competitive landscape, and valuation [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - "Fixed Income +" funds are expected to become a significant tool for increasing investors' property income, with a focus on systematic investment principles to achieve stable returns [4]