Trade Performance - In July, China's exports reached $321.78 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 5.4%[6] - Imports totaled $223.54 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1%, far surpassing the expected decline of 1%[6] - The trade surplus narrowed to $98.24 billion due to stronger import growth outpacing exports[6] Sector-Specific Insights - Semiconductor-related companies accelerated inventory buildup, leading to improved performance in integrated circuit exports[2] - The potential increase in drug pricing due to tariffs prompted domestic companies to expedite imports of medicinal materials and pharmaceuticals[2] - Exports to Latin America and Taiwan showed strong performance, with Taiwan exports increasing by 18.1% month-on-month[8] Risks and Future Outlook - The "rush" effect in trade is expected to be unsustainable, with potential risks of export pressure and import reliance on domestic demand[2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies poses a significant risk to China's export outlook[7]

关注后期政策走向。 铅 ： 日期 现货升贴水 上海河南价差 上海广东价差 1#再生铅价差 社会库存 上期所库存 2025/07/31 -145 0 -75 -25 7 63254 2025/08/01 -150 0 -75 -50 - 63283 2025/08/04 -150 25 -25 -25 7 63283 2025/08/05 -155 25 -75 0 - 63283 2025/08/06 -160 -25 -50 -25 - 63283 变化 -5 -50 25 -25 - 0 日期 现货进口收益 期货进口收益 保税库premium LME C-3M LME库存 LME注销仓单 2025/07/31 -525.73 -630.66 105 -41 276500 72350 2025/08/01 -549.50 -540.50 105 -41 275325 73900 2025/08/04 -367.60 -557.42 105 -48 274225 72525 2025/08/05 -486.97 -513.99 105 -42 272975 71275 2025/08/06 -567.51 - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump announced a plan to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [1] Group 2 - The announcement indicates a significant shift in trade policy that could impact the semiconductor industry [1] - The potential tariffs may lead to increased costs for companies relying on imported chips, affecting their profit margins [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump plans to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, which could significantly impact trade relations between the United States and India [1] Group 1 - The additional tariff is expected to affect a wide range of Indian products, potentially leading to increased costs for consumers in the U.S. [1] - This move may escalate trade tensions between the two countries, which have been navigating complex economic relationships [1] - The decision reflects ongoing protectionist policies from the U.S. administration aimed at supporting domestic industries [1]

本周锌价震荡下行。供应端，8月国产TC较7月上涨100元/吨，进口TC继续上升。8月冶炼端增量进一步兑现。需求 端，内需季节性走弱，除上海外现货大部分转贴水;海外，欧洲需求一般，但部分炼厂因为加工费问题生产有一定阳 力，现货升贴水小幅提高。国内，社库震荡上升。海外LME库存5月后震荡去化，持仓集中度高位下降。策略方面，短 期，建议观望关注商品情绪持续性，注意仓位管理，可适当逢高空配;内外方面，内外正套可继续持有;月差方面，可留 意月间正套机会。 镍 ： 日期 1.5菲律宾镍矿 高镍铁 沪镍现货 金川升贴水 俄镍升贴水 2025/07/30 58.0 - 120950 2100 300 2025/07/31 58.0 - 119050 2200 300 2025/08/01 58.0 - 118650 2250 350 2025/08/04 58.0 - 119150 2350 350 2025/08/05 57.0 - 120000 2250 350 变化 -1.0 - 850 -100 0 日期 现货进口收益 期货进口收益 保税库premium LME C-3M LME库存 LME注销仓单 2025/07/ ...

锡 ： 日期 现货进口收益 现货出口收益 锡持仓 LME C-3M LME库存 LME注销仓单 2025/07/29 -18866.43 -18168.11 52135 11 1855 505 2025/07/30 -15730.44 -20986.82 51663 -7 1945 580 | 2025/07/29 | -18866.43 | -18168.11 | 52135 | 11 | 1855 | 505 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/30 | -15730.44 | -20986.82 | 51663 | -7 | 1945 | 580 | | 2025/07/31 | -12318.38 | -23691.25 | 49644 | -16 | 1945 | 580 | | 2025/08/01 | -18781.98 | -18020.23 | 49454 | -1 | 1950 | 535 | | 2025/08/04 | -15533.72 | -20919.14 | 49437 | -39 | 1900 | 5 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/08/04 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/28 95 435 73423 17832 -615.05 64.47 50.0 65.0 -54.34 127400 17275 2025/07/29 110 385 73423 18083 -398.80 268.30 50.0 61.0 -51.71 127625 19400 2025/07/30 170 528 73423 19973 -736.08 -40.92 49.0 60.0 -46.80 136850 19375 2025/07/31 170 176 73423 19622 -286.39 322.14 49.0 60.0 -50.76 138200 16975 2025/08/01 170 153 72543 20349 -18.16 558.11 51.0 64.0 -49.25 141750 14275 变化 0 -23 -8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian government, led by President Lula, firmly opposes the U.S. decision to impose tariffs on Brazilian exports, asserting that Brazil will not yield to U.S. pressure and will defend its sovereignty [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Imposition - The U.S. has announced a 40% tariff on Brazilian exports effective from August 6, with most products facing an increased tariff rate of 50% [5]. - U.S. Trade Representative Greer stated that the new round of tariffs, including the 50% tariff on Brazil, is largely finalized and will not be adjusted during current negotiations [3]. Group 2: Brazilian Response - President Lula emphasized that Brazil is not a minor player and will not accept U.S. tariffs as a form of political coercion, indicating a commitment to equal dialogue [1][3]. - Brazil plans to negotiate with the U.S. regarding the tariffs and will implement reciprocal measures if negotiations fail [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian Chamber of Commerce's President and CEO, Candace Ryan, criticized President Trump's decision to raise tariffs on Canada, stating that the rationale for the increase lacks factual basis [1][3] Group 1: Tariff Increase Details - On July 31, Trump signed an executive order to raise the tariff rate on Canadian goods from 25% to 35%, effective August 1 [1] - The White House cited Canada's inaction on the fentanyl issue as part of the justification for the new tariffs [1] Group 2: Reactions and Statements - Ryan stated that the claims made by the U.S. regarding the tariffs are unfounded and that such tariff volatility does not promote economic security in North America [3] - Ryan emphasized the need for certainty for businesses in both Canada and the U.S. [3] - Trump expressed willingness to continue trade negotiations with Canada during a phone interview on July 31 [3] Group 3: Canadian Response - Canadian officials, including Carney, have indicated a commitment to defending Canadian workers and businesses' interests in ongoing negotiations with the U.S. [3] - Carney also mentioned plans to strengthen relationships with global trade partners to counter U.S. tariff threats [3]

消息人士：巴西预计对美国出口的35.9%面临50%的关税，44.6%的对美出口面临10%的关税；其余 19.5%将低于25%至50%的全球税率。 ...