巴西矿业协会（IBRAM）7月21日发布声明称，该协会旗下各矿业公司与巴西副总统杰拉尔多·阿尔克 明举行会议，深入探讨和评估美国8月1日起对矿产等巴西产品加征50%关税的预期影响。 IBRAM首席执行官劳尔·容曼（Raul Jungmann）表示，若美国加征关税措施生效，而巴西采取反制措 施，该国矿产行业每年恐额外损失至少10亿美元。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S. tariffs on the export chain and the manufacturing sector, particularly focusing on companies with overseas production bases in Southeast Asia [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Positive Developments in U.S.-China Trade Relations** There have been substantial discussions leading to significant progress in U.S.-China trade relations, with expectations of a joint statement to be released soon, indicating a generally positive outlook for the export chain [1]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs on Domestic and Overseas Manufacturers** Most companies have established robust overseas production bases, particularly in Southeast Asia, which mitigates the impact of U.S. tariffs. This has led to a normalization of shipping schedules and even an acceleration of orders for high-quality supply chains [2][3]. 3. **Tariff Burden Distribution** The initial 20% tariffs imposed have largely been absorbed by downstream clients rather than domestic manufacturers, with manufacturers only bearing a minimal portion of the costs [3]. 4. **Inventory Levels in Downstream Clients** Downstream clients currently hold about three to four months of inventory, which buffers against immediate impacts from shipping delays. This inventory level suggests that short-term disruptions may not significantly affect demand [4]. 5. **Price Adjustments in Retail** Retailers have begun to pass on tariff costs to consumers through gradual price increases, which cumulatively may lead to a noticeable rise in consumer prices and inflation levels [6]. 6. **Long-term Outlook for Manufacturing Sector** The light manufacturing industry, being labor-intensive, is unlikely to fully return to the U.S. Instead, it is expected to promote further overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Mexico, enhancing the resilience of leading companies [8]. 7. **Investment Opportunities in Resilient Companies** Companies with established overseas supply chains, such as Cangxin, Jiayi, and others, are expected to recover from current valuation dips due to their strong market positions and customer dependencies [9][10]. 8. **Sector-Specific Insights** Certain sectors, like insulated cups and pet care, are experiencing significant price increases, with some products seeing price multipliers of up to 7 times. Companies in these sectors are recommended for investor attention due to their lower sensitivity to tariff changes [10]. 9. **Focus on Companies with Low U.S. Exposure** Companies with minimal exposure to the U.S. market, such as Zhiyou Technology, which derives 60% of its revenue from Europe, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strategic supply chain migrations [11]. Additional Important Content - The overall sentiment from the call indicates a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of the export chain and the manufacturing sector, with ongoing monitoring of tariff negotiations and their implications for global economic conditions [6][7]. - The call concluded with an invitation for investors to stay updated on specific company fundamentals and market developments in subsequent reports [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for each individual energy and chemical product, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Asphalt: Oscillating [2] - Polyester: Oscillating [2][4] - Rubber: Oscillating [4] - Methanol: Oscillating [5] - Polyolefin: Oscillating [5] - Polyvinyl chloride: Oscillating [5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are affected by factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes, and are expected to continue oscillating [1]. - The fuel oil market is mainly driven by the cost - end crude oil, with the LU - FU spread reaching a high level this year, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity [2]. - The asphalt market is affected by supply and demand factors and follows the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - The polyester market is under pressure due to factors such as weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation [4]. - The rubber market is affected by export volume and production, and is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - The methanol market is expected to return to an oscillating trend due to factors such as device load and downstream profit [5]. - The polyolefin market has limited supply changes, and demand is at the bottom, with prices expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - The PVC market has limited fundamental changes, and the upward rebound space is not large [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. API data showed an increase in US crude oil and refined product inventories. Trump's tariff measures may suppress oil prices. However, domestic energy production and processing have positive trends, and oil prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil fell. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market remained stable. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for oscillation, and attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the LU - FU spread [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell slightly. The adjustment of the fuel oil and diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policy has not yet shown an impact. Supply has decreased, and demand has support. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of PTA, EG, and PX futures fell. The downstream demand is weak, the inventory of polyester factories is increasing, and the prices of polyester products are under pressure [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of some rubber varieties fluctuated. The rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire increased in the first half of 2025, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is affected by factors such as device load and downstream profit, and is expected to return to an oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin products are affected by supply and demand. Supply changes are limited, demand is at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: The PVC market price has a narrow - range adjustment. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated further, and the upward rebound space is limited [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on July 16, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on most imported goods from the EU and Mexico starting from August 1, which may suppress global fuel demand and oil prices [1][9]. - API data shows that as of the week of July 11, US API crude oil and refined product inventories increased [1][9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It includes the basis charts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., showing the basis changes over time [29][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., reflecting the price differences between different contract periods [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as the spread between crude oil internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit chart of PP, etc. [70]

Core Viewpoint - Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods, effective from August 1, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The tariff is a significant increase, indicating a shift in trade policy towards Canada [1] - The implementation date of August 1, 2025, provides a timeline for businesses to prepare for the changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump announced a 35% tariff on imports from Canada, indicating a significant shift in trade policy that could impact various industries and companies involved in cross-border trade [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The 35% tariff is expected to increase costs for companies that rely on Canadian imports, potentially leading to higher prices for consumers [1] - This move may disrupt supply chains, particularly for industries heavily dependent on Canadian resources or products [1] Group 2: Industry Reactions - Industries such as manufacturing and agriculture may face challenges due to increased costs and potential retaliatory measures from Canada [1] - Companies that export to Canada could also be affected, as the tariff may lead to a decrease in demand for their products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Trump to impose tariffs on Japanese goods starting August 1 has not affected the economic outlook for the Kansai region of Japan according to the head of the Osaka branch of the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1 - The tariffs are set to begin on August 1 [1] - The Kansai region's economic perspective remains unchanged despite the tariff announcement [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term price of the black building materials industry is expected to be "strong - biased", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [1][2][6] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of supply contraction is strengthened, and the market sentiment is optimistic. Frequent macro - level positive factors combined with a good fundamental situation lead to a short - term strong - biased price trend in the black building materials industry [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their quarterly volume - pushing, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has remained stable, and the molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is oscillating strongly [2] Carbon Element - In the supply side, coal mines in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but there are still regional disturbances, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the daily customs clearance at the port has remained above 800 vehicles in recent days, and the pre - festival stocking sentiment is evident. In the demand side, the coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. The downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [3] Alloys - **Manganese Alloy**: The manganese ore price has remained stable, but the port inventory has slightly increased, and there is still room for the ore price to decline in the future. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, which makes it more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the silicon iron price is insufficient, but due to the continuous loss in the industry, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [3][6] Glass - In the demand side, the demand in the off - season is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak. In the supply side, there are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and a production line is planned to resume production, so the supply pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and the internal contradiction is not prominent. Recently, the anti - involution sentiment has increased, and the market is worried about supply - side production cuts. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate [12][13] Soda Ash - The supply - side over - capacity situation has not changed, and the long - term suppression still exists. The production is at a high level, and the supply pressure remains. In the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash is weak, with manufacturers continuously reducing prices. The market is affected by sentiment, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities. The short - term outlook is sideways, and the long - term price center is expected to decline [6][13] Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamental contradiction is limited, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. Overseas tariffs are constantly disturbing, and after the steel price increase, the pressure on steel exports shows a marginal weakening trend. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [8] - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has decreased, and the price is oscillating upward. The demand is at a high level, and the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. After this round of upward movement, the futures price has reached an important resistance level, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and it is expected to oscillate after the macro - level sentiment cools down [9] - **Coke**: The cost support is strengthening, and the expectation of price increase is growing. The current supply - demand pattern has further improved, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is high, and both the spot and futures prices are strengthening. The current fundamental supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - **Silicon Manganese**: The spot market is in a stalemate. The supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [14] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship is currently healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, making it difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the price is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has announced a tariff increase of up to 30% on goods imported from six countries, including the Philippines, Moldova, Brunei, Algeria, Libya, and Iraq, effective August 1, pending further negotiations [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Tariff Details - The new tariffs will be implemented on August 1, with the highest rate reaching 30% [1] - Tariff rates on goods from Moldova, Iraq, and Libya are lower than those announced in early April, while rates for the Philippines and Brunei are higher [1] Trade Impact - In the previous year, the United States imported goods worth $24 billion from these six countries, which accounted for less than 1% of the total $3.2 trillion in U.S. imports [1]

Group 1 - Two percentages are provided: 50% and 17% [2]

Group 1 - The imposition of a 10% reciprocal tariff and tariffs on the automotive industry is estimated to reduce Japan's real GDP by 0.2%, while an increase to 25% would expand the GDP decline to 0.4% [1][3] - Japan's exports to the United States account for approximately 20% of its total exports, with significant products affected by the potential 25% tariffs, including aircraft parts and construction machinery [1][2] - The construction machinery sector, particularly companies like Komatsu, has over 50% of its exports directed to the U.S., indicating a substantial impact from increased tariffs [2] Group 2 - The total export value of aircraft parts from Japan is 307.9 billion yen, with 76.5% of this amount going to the U.S., highlighting the vulnerability of this sector to tariff increases [1] - Major Japanese manufacturers in the metal processing machinery sector, such as DMG Mori and Makino Milling Machine, are planning to pass on tariff costs to customers as additional fees, reflecting the broader industry strategy to mitigate financial impacts [2] - The Japan Economic Federation (Keidanren) has expressed significant concern regarding the potential impact of increased tariffs on corporate investment strategies and profitability, indicating a widespread sentiment of crisis among Japanese businesses [2]