Group 1 - The complexity of reaching an agreement with Mexico differs from other countries, with a 90-day extension for tariffs on fentanyl, automobiles, steel, aluminum, and copper [1] - Mexico has agreed to eliminate many non-tariff trade barriers immediately, and the U.S. will negotiate a trade agreement within 90 days or longer [1] - Ongoing cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico will focus on border security, including issues related to drugs and illegal immigration [1] Group 2 - The U.S. PCE price index for June increased by 2.6% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.5%, with a prior value revised up to 2.3% [2] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding the expected 2.7%, marking the highest level since February [2] - Month-on-month, the PCE price index remained flat at 0.3%, consistent with expectations, while the previous value was revised from 0.1% to 0.2% [2]

当地时间7月31日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，他刚刚与墨西哥总统进行电话 交谈。特朗普表示，与墨西哥达成协议的复杂性与其他国家达成协议有所不同，他们同意延长两国的协 议90天，即墨西哥将继续支付25%的芬太尼关税、25%的汽车关税以及50%的钢铁、铝和铜关税。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 此外，墨西哥已同意立即取消其设置的许多非关税贸易壁垒。美国将在未来90天内与墨西哥进行磋商， 目标是在90天或更长时间内签署贸易协议。双方将继续在边境安全的各个方面开展合作，包括毒品、毒 品分销以及非法移民问题。 ...

韩国总统李在明：希望美国的关税协议将有助于加强联盟并深化产业合作。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agreement on tariffs between the US and Europe is expected to have a significant impact on the economies of Italy and Europe as a whole [1] Group 1 - The Italian Minister of Economy emphasizes the importance of the US-Europe tariff agreement for economic relations [1] - The agreement is anticipated to influence trade dynamics and economic growth in Italy [1] - Potential changes in tariffs could lead to shifts in market competitiveness for Italian industries [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market" with an expectation of a relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [25]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is projected to have a pre-profit rate of 51% for the first half of 2025, with 22 out of 43 companies expected to be profitable [1][10]. - The performance of sub-sectors within the industry is varied, with the textile manufacturing sector showing a higher pre-profit rate of 60% [2][14]. - The overall industry performance is described as flat, with a decrease in the proportion of companies expecting profit growth and an increase in those continuing to incur losses [10][23]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - As of July 28, 2025, 43 out of 107 A-share companies in the textile and apparel sector have released performance forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 40%, ranking second among eight major consumption sectors [9][10]. - The proportion of companies reporting first-time losses decreased from 22% in 2024 to 14% in 2025, while the share of companies with ongoing losses increased from 28% to 35% [10][23]. Sub-sector Analysis - The textile manufacturing sector has a pre-profit rate of 60%, with 6 companies expected to be profitable, while the apparel and home textile sector has a pre-profit rate of 48% [2][14]. - The apparel and home textile sector saw a slight increase in the proportion of companies expecting profit growth from 14% to 17%, while the textile manufacturing sector experienced a decline in this metric from 55% to 40% [16][23]. Investment Recommendations - For textile manufacturing, it is advised to focus on companies with cost and scale advantages as tariff agreements improve [3][23]. - In the apparel and home textile sector, companies with strong brand power are expected to benefit from a recovery in downstream demand [3][23]. - In the jewelry sector, while high gold prices may suppress short-term demand, long-term improvements in craftsmanship are anticipated to enhance market penetration [3][23].

Group 1 - The international gold price experienced fluctuations, stabilizing around the support level of $3300 after a four-day decline, indicating a potential reversal with a small bullish candlestick pattern [1] - Market focus is on the outcomes of the US-China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with expectations of relative stability until these results are announced [1] - Recent tariff agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU have lowered overall tariff levels compared to previous threats, reducing short-term market risk aversion and potentially stabilizing gold prices [1] Group 2 - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the $3305-$3335 range, with potential downward support at $3280 and $3250, or upward resistance at $3350-$3355 [2] - The outcome of the battle for the $3350 level will be crucial for determining the future price trajectory of gold [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in July with a 2.6% probability of a rate cut, but the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economy shows resilience, with the July composite PMI reaching a new high, but the manufacturing PMI falling into the contraction range. The gold market has increased long - short divergence, and domestic gold investment demand is strong while jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - Copper prices may decline slightly in the future week as the anti - involution heat fades, and will experience significant fluctuations due to major macro - events [14]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with low inventory supporting prices but weakening demand. Alumina has intensified capital games, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Zinc's supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak in the off - season, and short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades, and are affected by macro - events [96]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the polysilicon market should be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [117]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Expectations**: The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in July (2.6% probability of a rate cut), and the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economic data shows mixed signals, with the composite PMI at a high and the manufacturing PMI in contraction [3]. - **Market Sentiment and Demand**: The 15% tariff agreement between the US and Europe weakens the safe - haven demand. Domestic gold investment demand is strong (23.69% year - on - year increase in gold bar and coin consumption in the first half of the year), but jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold's total positions and net long positions have increased significantly, indicating intensified long - short divergence [3]. Copper - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Copper prices rose and then fell last week. The rise was due to anti - involution and expected copper demand from the Yajiang Hydropower Station, but these factors have limited short - term impact. Future price trends will be affected by the fading anti - involution heat and macro - events [14]. - **Market Data**: As of the report date, the latest price of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper has declined, and the import profit and loss and processing fees have also changed [15][22][26]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Aluminum**: The anti - involution sentiment has eased, and the price has slightly declined. Low inventory supports prices, but demand is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [34]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is still tight. The warehouse receipts are at a low level, and the price has been affected by trading restrictions [35]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply side is affected by the price of scrap aluminum, and the demand side shows good short - term performance. It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [36]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of zinc futures and spot zinc have declined, and inventory has changed [67][72][75]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Movement**: The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - **Market Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures have changed, and trading volume and positions have also fluctuated [82]. Tin - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Tin prices rose due to anti - involution and may decline slightly as the heat fades, being affected by macro - events [96]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of tin futures and spot tin have declined, and inventory has increased [97][101][103]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - **Market Data**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot lithium have changed, and inventory has also fluctuated [108][111][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly due to good macro - sentiment and the rise of polysilicon [117]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is hyped up by policy expectations, and caution is needed about the "strong expectation, weak reality" situation [117]. - **Market Data**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products have changed, and production and inventory data are also provided [118][124][132]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton decreased with reduced positions. The latest price index of 328-grade cotton was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions and grades of cotton had various sales basis and price ranges [7]. - The pure cotton yarn market's quotes remained stable, and transaction prices gradually approached the quotes. The overall demand in the cotton fabric market was weak, with prices mostly stable or declining [7]. - Macroscopically, the US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the market focused on the China-US talks in Stockholm. Internationally, as of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, the squaring rate was 80%, and the boll-setting rate was 44%. The growth progress of US cotton was slow, and the good-to-excellent rate declined slightly. Domestically, the sown area increased year-on-year, and there was still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream industry's demand remained weak, and the short-term main contract adjusted with position reduction and contract switching, with the 9-1 spread continuing to converge [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of July 24, the number of deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE was 21,617 bales, down from 21,635 bales the previous trading day. As of July 22, 2025, the net long position rate of ICE cotton futures funds was -18.94% (a week-on-week increase of 3.97 percentage points) [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including those on the China cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, different contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [17][18][23]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.38% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 267 points, a decline of 0.6% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 84 points, down 0.4% [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index nearly completely reversed earlier gains [1] Economic Commentary - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, stated that a large number of agreements are close to being finalized, pending the determination of tariff rates by President Trump [1]

跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 墨西哥总统辛鲍姆：墨西哥的目标是在本周与美国达成关税协议。 ...