根据 Counterpoint Research《市场监测》 服务的初步数据，2025年Q1全球智能手机出货量同比增 长3%。继2023年下滑后于2024年实现增长的全球智能手机市场，在2025年开局同样表现积极，这主 要得益于中国、拉丁美洲和东南亚等市场的推动。 分析师观点 针对市场表现Counterpoint 高级分析师Yang Wang 评论道："Q1增速未达我们此前6%的预期，主 要由于季度末关税政策不确定性加剧，以及厂商采取谨慎的库存策略。当前市场不确定性依然存 在，这将影响未来走势。因此，我们此前对2025年4%增速的预测恐难实现，今年甚至可能出现零 增长或负增长。" 全球五大智能手机品牌出货量份额（初步数据） 数据来源：Counterpoint Research 初步市场监测数据（基于出货量） Notes：OPPO 包括OnePlus，由于四舍五入百分比总和可能不等于100%，出货量数据按百万台为单位取整；增长率百 分比基于取整前的实际出货数据计算。 分析师观点 针对厂商表现，Counterpoint 高级分析师Jene Park 评论道："Samsung 在2025年Q1凭借Galaxy S2 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Tariff threats persist, causing oil prices to decline again. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policies impacts the global economy, trade, and investment prospects, further suppressing already low oil consumption this year, especially in emerging economies. Supply growth is expected to significantly exceed demand, with oil consumption growth not exceeding 500,000 barrels per day year - on - year [1][2]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered global crude oil demand and price expectations for WTI and Brent crude for this year and next [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's May - delivery light crude oil futures dropped $2.28 to $60.07 per barrel, a 3.66% decline; June - delivery London Brent crude futures fell $2.15 to $63.33 per barrel, a 3.28% decline. SC crude's main contract rose 0.41% to 464 yuan per barrel [1]. - U.S. shale oil producers face the most severe threat in years. Since Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariffs last week, U.S. oil prices have fallen 12%, below the break - even level for many Texas producers, and OPEC's recent decision to increase production has also raised concerns [1]. - EU Commission President von der Leyen welcomed Trump's decision to suspend tariffs on other countries' goods for 90 days. She reiterated the EU's "zero - for - zero" tariff proposal to the U.S. government [1]. - An Iranian official said that if foreign military threats continue, Iran may expel international nuclear inspectors and move enriched uranium to secret locations. Trump said he would consider military action against Iran if it weaponizes its nuclear program [1]. - The EIA's short - term energy outlook report lowered global crude oil demand and price expectations for WTI and Brent crude for this year and next, and predicted that OPEC + oil production will remain basically unchanged this year while global oil inventories will rise [1]. - The EU and the UAE reached an agreement to start free - trade negotiations [1]. - Iran is considering proposing a temporary nuclear agreement with the U.S. before negotiating a comprehensive one, as Trump set a two - month deadline for a new nuclear agreement and threatened military action if no agreement is reached [1]. Investment Logic - After a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs, Trump's threat to resume high tariffs if no agreement is reached impacts the global economy, trade, and investment. The uncertainty of tariff policies further suppresses oil consumption, especially in emerging economies. Supply growth is expected to far exceed demand [2]. Strategy - Affected by macro events, oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and a short - position allocation is recommended for the medium term [3]. Risks - Downside risks include significant OPEC production increases and macro black - swan events. - Upside risks include supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle - East conflicts [3].