Morning session notice Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周四国债期货主力合约开盘全线高开，早盘小幅回探后连续上涨，截至收盘 30 年 期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.37%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.15%，5 年期 TF2603 | | | | | 上涨 0.09%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.02%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周四央行开展了 99 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天无逆回购到期，当 | | | | | 日合计净投放 99 亿元。央行周四还开展 1.1 万亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为 3 | | | | | 个月（90 天），当日有 1.1 万亿元买断式逆回购到期，完全对冲。 2、资金市场：周四银行间资金市场隔夜利率保持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.47%，上一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton is under certain hedging pressure. Downstream textile mills have a rigid demand for cotton, so the short - term cotton price may continue to be stable with a slight upward bias. In the medium - to - long term, both policies and fundamentals are expected to improve, and the center of cotton prices may rise [2] - The core logic includes large cotton production this year leading to hedging pressure on the futures market; the overall stable operating rate of textile mills and the rigid demand for cotton from expanding enterprises in Xinjiang; positive expectations for cotton planting area and target subsidies [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One - week Data Overview - **Commodity Price Changes**: The CotlookA index rose 0.3 cents/lb to 74.3 cents/lb, a 0.41% increase; NYMEX light crude oil rose $0.4/barrel to $57.33/barrel, a 0.7% increase; ICE No. 2 cotton fell 0.45 cents/lb to 64.01 cents/lb, a 0.7% decrease. Among the import cotton CNF prices, FCIndex to - port price rose 0.34 cents/lb to 73.96 cents/lb, a 0.46% increase [5] - **Cotton Futures and Spot Prices**: As of December 31, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract 05 closed at 14585 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from December 26, with a cumulative reduction of 43,000 lots in positions to 861,000 lots. The ICE cotton main contract 03 in December was at 64.3 cents/lb, down 0.16 cents/lb from December 26, a 0.2% decrease; the cotton spot price index was at 15556 yuan/ton, up 239 yuan/ton from last week, a 1.56% increase [6] 2. Domestic Market Basic Situation - **Raw Material Prices**: On December 31, raw material prices showed mixed trends. The short - fiber main contract closing price rose 30 yuan/ton to 6514 yuan/ton, a 0.46% increase; the cotton main contract closing price rose 405 yuan/ton to 14585 yuan/ton, a 2.86% increase; the cotton spot 3128B market price rose 285 yuan/ton to 15556 yuan/ton, a 1.87% increase; the polyester short - fiber price rose 65 yuan/ton to 6520 yuan/ton, a 1.01% increase; the viscose short - fiber price fell 25 yuan/ton to 12825 yuan/ton, a 0.19% decrease [9] - **Domestic Yarn Prices**: On December 31, domestic yarn prices moved slightly upward. The OEC10S air - spun yarn rose 130 yuan/ton to 15000 yuan/ton, a 0.87% increase; the C32S carded yarn rose 100 yuan/ton to 20900 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase; the C40S carded yarn rose 120 yuan/ton to 21800 yuan/ton, a 0.55% increase [11] - **Imported Yarn Prices**: In dollar terms, the price of foreign yarn moved slightly upward. The FCYIndexJC32S to - port price rose 0.01 dollars/kg to 2.67 dollars/kg, a 0.38% increase; the Pakistan C21S imported yarn to - port price rose 0.01 dollars/kg to 2.37 dollars/kg, a 0.42% increase. In RMB terms, the price of foreign yarn increased collectively, with the Vietnam C32S imported yarn port pick - up price rising 50 yuan/ton to 21240 yuan/ton, a 0.24% increase [14][18] - **Cotton Price Spreads**: On December 31, the spread between the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128B and the FCindex sliding - tariff port pick - up price was 1626 yuan/ton, up 247 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened; the spread between the Zhengzhou cotton main contract and the FCindex sliding - tariff port pick - up price was 655 yuan/ton, up 367 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened. The spread between the Zhengzhou cotton main contract and the tariff - included ICE main contract was 1775 yuan/ton, up 406 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened; the spread between the Zhengzhou cotton main contract and the ICE main contract's converted on - screen price was 4672 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened [22][24] - **Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: On December 31, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 9239, an increase of 1047 from last week. Among them, the total number of warehouse receipts was 5712, an increase of 1342 from last week; the total number of effective forecasts was 3527, a decrease of 295 from last week [27] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Spread**: As of December 31, the spread between the Zhengzhou cotton main contract and the CCI3128B spot price index was - 971 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread narrowed [29] - **Cotton Inventory**: As of December 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 534.9 million tons, an increase of 66.54 million tons from half a month ago. The total inventory in Xinjiang was 438.97 million tons, an increase of 59.92 million tons from half a month ago; the total inventory in the inland was 61.13 million tons, an increase of 5.02 million tons from half a month ago; the bonded - area cotton inventory was 34.8 million tons, an increase of 2.6 million tons from half a month ago [32] - **Cotton Imports**: As of November 30, the monthly cotton import volume was 12 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the previous month, a 33% increase; compared with the same period, it increased by 1 million tons, a 9% increase [34] 3. Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis - **Macro - environment**: In 2026, the national subsidy for the large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policy will continue, and the support scope will be optimized. In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. The production index and new order index increased, indicating an acceleration of production activities and an improvement in market demand [1][35] - **Supply - side Situation**: From December 26 - 25, the US 2025/26 cotton grading inspection was 12.92 million tons, with 82.1% of lint meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative grading inspection was 255.35 million tons, with 82.7% of lint meeting the requirements. There are rumors about a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026/27, but official confirmation is needed [1][35] - **Demand - side Situation**: From January - November, the textile industry's total profit was 618.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, and the decline accelerated. The demand side was weak, and the problem of insufficient downstream orders could not be solved in the short term. The import of yarn continued to impact the market, and the price increase space for pure - cotton yarn was limited. However, downstream textile mills had the intention to replenish inventory due to rigid demand [1][35] - **Market Performance and Outlook**: The center of Zhengzhou cotton futures moved slightly upward this week. In the short term, supported by fundamentals, Zhengzhou cotton was relatively strong. Before the New Year's Day holiday, some profit - taking funds left the market, and market trading became more cautious. The market expected a reduction in domestic cotton production in the new year, which supported cotton prices. High - count combed cotton yarn performed well, while conventional medium - and low - count yarns faced inventory pressure. In the short term, the downside space was limited. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the implementation of Xinjiang's planting policy and the recovery of downstream demand [35]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for December 2025 indicates a recovery in economic sentiment, with a PMI of 50.1%, reflecting a 0.9 percentage point increase from the previous month, signaling an expansion in the manufacturing sector [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The production index and new orders index are reported at 51.7% and 50.8% respectively, indicating significant expansion in both production and demand compared to the previous month [1] - The PMI for large enterprises has returned to the expansion zone, recorded at 50.8%, which is an increase of 1.5 percentage points from last month [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - Among the 21 surveyed industries, 16 have shown an increase in PMI compared to the previous month, suggesting an overall improvement in production and operational conditions across various sectors [1] - The high-tech manufacturing sector's PMI stands at 52.5%, reflecting a 2.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating strong performance in this key industry [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index has risen to 55.5%, up by 2.4 percentage points from last month, demonstrating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The 12 - month Chinese manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, while the service industry remained below the boom - bust line. The stock market's sharp rise on Monday suppressed bond market bulls, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Review** - On Monday, Treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, then fell back and fluctuated narrowly around the previous close until the close. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.05%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.03% [1] **Important Information** - **Open Market**: On Monday, the central bank conducted 13.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 482.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained low. DR001's weighted average for the day was 1.26% (previous trading day: 1.24%); DR007's weighted average for the day was 1.43% (same as the previous trading day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly increased compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 2.91 BP to 1.38%, the 5 - year rose 1.31 BP to 1.64%, the 10 - year rose 1.57 BP to 1.86%, and the 30 - year rose 2.93 BP to 2.28% [1] - **Central Bank Data**: In December 2025, the central bank net - injected 50 billion yuan through open - market Treasury bond trading operations, marking the third consecutive month of such operations. In December, the central bank conducted 3.5361 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, withdrew 3.4542 trillion yuan, achieving a net injection of 81.9 billion yuan. Other - term reverse repurchases had a net injection of 400 billion yuan. Through MLF, there was a net injection of 100 billion yuan, and through SLF, a net injection of 7.1 billion yuan [1] - **US Data**: The US December ISM manufacturing index slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months [1] **Market Logic** - In December, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line. Manufacturing production and demand both entered the expansion range. The December service industry business activity index was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line. The central bank's Q4 monetary policy committee meeting emphasized adjusting the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy. The new regulations on fund sales fees are favorable for the bond market. The stock market rose sharply on Monday, suppressing bond market bulls [1][2] **Trading Strategy** - Traders should conduct band operations [2]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December 2025 is reported at 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking a return to the expansion zone after eight consecutive months below 50% [1] - The production and business activity expectation index for December is at 55.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, the highest since April 2024 [1] - The new orders index for December is at 50.8%, rising 1.6 percentage points, indicating a return to the expansion zone after five months below 50% [1] Group 2 - The new export orders index for December is at 49%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points, indicating stable development in manufacturing exports [1] - The production index for December is at 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points, showing significant growth in manufacturing activity [1] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI is reported at 52.5%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points, indicating a notable acceleration in expansion [1] Group 3 - The consumer goods industry PMI is at 50.4%, up 1 percentage point, with the production index exceeding 52% and the new orders index exceeding 51%, reflecting good expansion in the consumer goods manufacturing market [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for December is at 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The composite PMI output index for December is at 50.7%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month [2]

（来源：衢州日报） 转自：衢州日报 大型企业PMI重返扩张区间。12月份，大型企业PMI为50.8%，比上月上升1.5个百分点，升至临界点以 上；中型企业PMI为49.8%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，景气水平回升；小型企业PMI为48.6%，比上月下 降0.5个百分点，景气水平有所回落。 预期指数升至较高景气区间。12月份，生产经营活动预期指数为55.5%，比上月上升2.4个百分点，制造 业企业对市场发展信心继续增强。 据新华社北京2025年12月31日电 （记者 王雨萧 魏玉坤） 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购 联合会12月31日发布数据显示，12月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，4月份以来首次升至扩 张区间。在调查的21个行业中有16个行业PMI较上月回升，相关企业生产经营情况有所改善。 数据显示，产需两端明显回升。12月份，生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.7%和50.8%，比上月上升1.7 个和1.6个百分点，特别是新订单指数下半年以来首次升至临界点以上，制造业产需两端均较上月明显 扩张。 ...

作者丨冉黎黎 编辑丨陈洁 12月31日，国家统计局发布2025年12月中国采购经理指数运行情况。12月份，制造业采购 经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，为2025年4月份以来首次升至扩张区间。 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧表示，12月份，生产指数和新订单指数分别 为51.7%和50.8%，比上月上升1.7个和1.6个百分点，特别是新订单指数下半年以来首次升 至临界点以上，制造业产需两端均较上月明显扩张。 中泰证券研究所政策团队首席分析师杨畅对21世纪经济报道记者表示，新订单与新出口订 单的差值为1.8个百分点（前值为1.6个百分点），表明内需出现修复。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬进一步对21世纪经济报道记者表示，前期稳增长政策继续 落地显效，叠加外部不确定性阶段性缓释，带动内外需同步好转。 此外，霍丽慧介绍，在调查的21个行业中有16个行业PMI较上月回升，相关企业生产经营情 况 有 所 改 善 。 高 技 术 制 造 业 、 装 备 制 造 业 、 消 费 品 行 业 PMI 分 别 为 52.5% 、 50.4% 、 50.4%，分别较上月回升2.4、0.6、1.0个百分点。预期指数也升至较高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China rose to 50.1% in December 2025, marking the first expansion since April 2025, indicating a recovery in both production and demand [1][5]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, reaching the expansion zone [5]. - The production index and new orders index were reported at 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing significant month-on-month increases [6][7]. - In 2025, the monthly manufacturing PMI figures were 49.1%, 50.2%, 50.5%, 49%, 49.5%, 49.7%, 49.3%, 49.4%, 49.8%, 49.0%, 49.2%, and 50.1% [5]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Among the 21 surveyed industries, 16 showed an increase in PMI compared to the previous month, indicating improved business conditions [2][8]. - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors reported PMIs of 52.5%, 50.4%, and 50.4%, respectively, all above the expansion threshold [2][8]. - The new export orders index rose to 49.0%, up 1.4 percentage points, although it remains below the expansion threshold [7][9]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The production activity expectation index reached 55.5%, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [10]. - The supplier delivery time index was reported at 50.2%, suggesting that the delivery times for raw materials are improving [9]. - The inventory indices for finished products and raw materials showed signs of recovery, with finished product inventory rising to 48.2% and raw materials inventory at 47.8% [9].

经济观察网12月31日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，12月份制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为50.1%，比上 月上升0.9个百分点，4月份以来首次升至扩张区间。 ...

国家统计局12月31日发布的数据显示，12月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个 百分点，在连续8个月运行在50%以下后升至扩张区间。 12月制造业生产经营活动预期指数为55.5%，较上月上升2.4个百分点，创2024年4月以来的新高。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为，12月份PMI指数出现较明显回升，表明市场预期进一步 向好。同时也要看到，市场引导的需求收缩力度仍大，企业产品销售面对的困难仍多。 张立群表示，要通过力度足够的政府公共产品投资有效带动企业订单增长，带动企业和社会投资增长， 带动就业和居民消费，使扩大内需、扭转市场需求收缩的系统性努力尽快见到明显成效。进而持续改善 市场预期，推动中国经济尽快进入需求持续回暖带动的持续回升向好轨道。 中型企业也趋稳运行，中型企业PMI为49.8%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，创年内次高点，其中生产指数 较上月上升1.2个百分点至接近52%的水平，新订单指数较上月上升2.1个百分点至接近50%的水平，显 示中型企业需求持稳运行，生产加快扩张。小型企业PMI为48.6%，比上月下降0.5个百分点，低于临界 点。 文韬表示，当前市场需求 ...