9月30日，国家统计局发布数据，9 月份，制造业采购经 理指数 （ PMI ） 为 49.8% ，比上月上升 0.4 个百分点；非制造业商务活 动指数为 50.0% ，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点；综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.6% ，比上月上升 0.1 个百分点，我国经济总体产出扩张略 有加快。 ...

9月30日，国家统计局数据显示，9月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2] - The production index for August stands at 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, marking the fourth consecutive month above the critical point, suggesting accelerated production expansion [2] - The new orders index is at 49.5%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase, with notable performance in sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics [2] Group 2: Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index is at 53.3%, and the factory price index is at 49.1%, both showing increases of 1.8 and 0.8 percentage points respectively, indicating a general improvement in market price levels [2] - Industries such as black metal smelting and metal products have seen their purchase and factory price indices rise above 52.0%, suggesting an overall increase in raw material procurement and product sales prices [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is reported at 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4] - The service sector business activity index reaches a year-high of 50.5%, increasing by 0.5 percentage points, with strong growth in capital market services and transportation sectors [4] - The business activity expectation index for services is at 57.0%, up by 0.4 percentage points, reflecting optimistic market expectations among service sector enterprises [4] Group 4: Overall Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.5%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities [6] - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices are reported at 50.8% and 50.3% respectively, suggesting stable expansion in both sectors [6] - Analysts predict that the economic recovery will continue into September and the fourth quarter, driven by stable demand and supportive policies [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Asian manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) shows a positive trend, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth in the region, particularly in China and India, while also highlighting the resilience of supply chains and regional cooperation as key factors for continued expansion [1] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Data - In August, the Asian manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.9%, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking four consecutive months above 50% [1] - China's manufacturing PMI increased compared to the previous month, while India's PMI remained above 59% [1] - Among ASEAN countries, Indonesia and Thailand's PMIs rose above 51%, while the Philippines, Myanmar, and Vietnam maintained PMIs above 50%. Singapore's PMI was at 50%, and Malaysia's PMI fell below 50% [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The overall economic outlook for Asia is positive, with China's economy solidifying its growth foundation, India maintaining rapid growth, and ASEAN economies showing signs of improvement [1] - The global manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.9%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating that Asia's recovery level continues to surpass that of the Americas, Europe, and Africa, as well as the global manufacturing average [1] - The expanding economic scale of Asia is positioned as a core driver for global economic growth, supported by deepening regional cooperation and enhanced supply chain resilience [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In August, the manufacturing PMI increased slightly, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level and positive signs in economic operation. The outstanding performance of the high - tech manufacturing sector reflects the optimization of the domestic economic structure, which will also be reflected in relevant sectors of the domestic equity market. In September, the Fed's interest rate cut is almost certain, and attention should be paid to domestic macro - economic counter - cyclical adjustment policies [18]. 3. Summary by Directory New Orders and Production Both Rebound - The production index representing supply and the new order index representing demand both rebounded, but the latter remained below 50, with a smaller rebound than the production index, and the gap between them continued to widen [4]. - The new export orders rose slightly by 0.1 to 47.2, staying below the boom - bust line for 16 consecutive months [4]. - The employment index was 47.9, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining below the boom - bust line for 30 consecutive months [5]. - In August, the raw material inventory index increased slightly, while the enterprise finished - product inventory index decreased slightly [5]. The Prosperity of Large, Medium, and Small Enterprises Continues to Differentiate - The manufacturing PMI of large enterprises was 50.8, up 0.5 from the previous month, indicating accelerated expansion of production and business activities, which played a major supporting role in the overall manufacturing [9]. - The PMI of medium - sized enterprises was 48.9, down 0.6 from the previous month, remaining below the boom - bust line for 8 consecutive months [9]. - The PMI of small enterprises was 46.6, up 0.2 from the previous month, remaining below the boom - bust line for 17 consecutive months. The prosperity of small and medium - sized enterprises needs further improvement [9]. High - tech Manufacturing Performs Remarkably - Among the four industries, high - tech manufacturing was outstanding, increasing by 1.3 to 51.9 in August compared to July, reaching a new high since April this year [10]. - The equipment manufacturing and basic raw material industries both rebounded slightly, while the consumer goods industry declined slightly [10]. The Purchase Price of Raw Materials Rebounds Rapidly - The purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex - factory price index continued to rise. The purchase price of raw materials rose 1.8 to 53.3, reaching a new high since October last year. Attention should be paid to whether the PPI year - on - year and month - on - month data to be announced in mid - September will further improve [13]. The Market Expectation Index Rises Slightly - In August, the production and business activity expectation index was 53.7, rising for two consecutive months, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing production and investment expectations [14].

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is 49.4%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The production index is at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, marking the fourth consecutive month above the critical point, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [1] - The new orders index stands at 49.5%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase, with significant growth in sectors like pharmaceuticals and computer communication electronics, while textiles and wood processing remain below the critical point [1] Group 2 - The price index has been rising, with the main raw material purchase price index at 53.3% and the factory price index at 49.1%, both showing increases of 1.8 and 0.8 percentage points respectively, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI is at 51.9% and equipment manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, both showing increases, which indicates sustained support and leading roles in the manufacturing sector [2] - The production and business activity expectation index is at 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding future market conditions [2]

Group 1 - The UK manufacturing sector's improvement over the past three months has reversed in August, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping from 48 in July to 47, marking 11 consecutive months of contraction [1] - Domestic and overseas market demand is declining at the fastest rate in nearly two years, as indicated by the August PMI data [1] - The total order volume for UK manufacturing in August fell below July levels and significantly below long-term averages, with export orders also declining more than in July [1] Group 2 - Input cost pressures for UK manufacturers are rising, with the input cost price index increasing from 57.0 in July to 57.7 in August due to higher minimum wage and national insurance tax rates [2] - Despite rising input costs, non-food retail prices in the UK are shrinking, making it difficult for manufacturers to pass on these costs to consumers, as non-food prices fell by 0.8% year-on-year in August [2] - The output price index for manufacturers decreased from 55.6 to 53.7, indicating that manufacturers are absorbing additional costs rather than raising prices [2] Group 3 - The UK manufacturing sector is facing a dual challenge with insufficient domestic market demand and rising costs, with no signs of relief in sight [3] - Domestic market demand is weak due to persistent inflation, exemplified by a 14% year-on-year drop in domestic car sales in July [3] - Exports to the US have also significantly declined, with a £700 million drop in goods exports in July, representing a 14.5% decrease, the lowest level since February 2022 [3] Group 4 - The UK government's tax increases have exacerbated cost pressures in the manufacturing and service sectors without alleviating fiscal pressures [4] - The outlook for UK manufacturing remains challenging due to weak demand, trade friction, and increased policy uncertainty [4] - The upcoming autumn budget is seen as a critical moment for boosting business confidence, with calls for certainty in corporate tax and support for industrial and infrastructure strategies [4]

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-2 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.4%，比上月上升0.1个百分 点，7 月出口 3217.8 亿美元，同比增 7.2%。8月20日，彭博社报道，针对石化与炼油行业的全 面改革方案正在酝酿，拟解决长期产能过剩，预计9月出台。供需端，农膜企业开工小幅回升， 整体需求仍较往年偏弱，其余包装膜等受旺季临近影响需求增加。当前LL交割品现货价7250（- 20），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-20，升贴水比例-0.3%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存48.7万吨（-7.8），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for August is 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment compared to the previous month [1] Summary by Categories Overall PMI Performance - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector [1] By Enterprise Size - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month, indicating expansion above the neutral level [1] - Medium enterprises had a PMI of 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points, remaining below the neutral level [1] - Small enterprises recorded a PMI of 46.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, but still below the neutral level [1] Component Indices - The production index stands at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production expansion in the manufacturing sector [1] - The new orders index is at 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in market demand [1] - The raw materials inventory index is at 48.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, still below the neutral level, showing a narrowing decline in major raw material inventories [1] - The employment index is at 47.9%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight decline in employment sentiment within manufacturing [1] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating that the delivery times from raw material suppliers are continuing to improve [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend, with limited price fluctuations and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][37] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情复盘 - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a fluctuating trend, ranging from around 20,580 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,950 yuan/ton [9] 2.宏观面 - In August, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level. Among the five sub - indices, the production index and the supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below the critical point [13][15] 3.供需情况 - As of August 28, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 24,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period. In July, the monthly output of aluminum products was 216940 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 153,600 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons from the previous month but a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [19][23] 4.库存情况 - As of August 29, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 125,596 tons, an increase of 991 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 481,050 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 2.56%. As of August 28, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 567,000 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from the previous day [28] 5.宏观面、基本面分析 - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the new order index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, alumina production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The operating rate of alumina enterprises continued to rise. The import volume of bauxite increased rapidly month - on - month, approaching the high in April. The production of aluminum products decreased significantly month - on - month, and the production of aluminum alloy decreased month - on - month. The Shanghai aluminum inventory increased slightly, and the inventory level was at a low level in recent years [36] 6.后市展望 - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend, with limited price fluctuations and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][37]